Market notes from the Phantom desk

Notes on every major economic release — what the print said, what moved underneath it, and what it means for the session.

Recent notes

• Dow's best day since April 2025. NQ slips on chips (2026-11-05)
• Crude −0.9M vs 0.9M Build Est — Distillate Drops 3.6M as Demand Jumps 1.75 mb/d (2026-11-04)
• ISM Services 54.5 vs 54.8 Est — Backlogs Highest Since 2022, S&P Final Cut to 56.1 (2026-11-04)
• Trade Deficit $105.0B vs $108B Est — Imports Hit Another Record at $426.6B (2026-11-04)
• ADP Private Payrolls +86K vs 69K Est — Hiring Holds, Job-Changer Gross Pay Climbs to 7.6% (2026-11-04)
• Democrats sweep Congress. NQ erases a 2.4% drop (2026-11-04)
• Factory Orders +1.8% vs 1.2% Est — Aircraft and Refinery Prices Do the Lifting (2026-11-03)
• JOLTS 7.52M vs 7.10M Est — Openings Highest Since May, Quits Jump to 2.1% (2026-11-03)
• Oil bounces 2% after Qeshm strike. Apple slides 3.9% (2026-11-03)
• Construction Spending −1.9% vs +0.4% Est — Home Improvements Fall 13%, Office +5.0% (2026-11-02)
• Final Manufacturing PMI Cut to 54.9 From 56.0 Flash — Selling Prices Fastest Since 2022 (2026-11-02)
• ISM Manufacturing 55.5 vs 54.6 Est — Production Highest Since 2021, Prices Ease to 75.2 (2026-11-02)
• Oil drops 4.6% on Doha talks. NQ bounces 0.8% (2026-11-02)
• Chicago PMI Slips to 55.3 vs 56.1 Est — Prices Paid Hit Highest Since 2021 (2026-10-30)
• Employment Cost Index +0.8% in Q3 — Wages Slow to 0.7%, Real Pay Falls 0.6% (2026-10-30)
• Intel and Amazon drag NQ 2.3%. YM hasn't moved (2026-10-30)
• Natural Gas +80 Bcf vs +75 Est — First Above-Normal Build in Eight Weeks (2026-10-29)
• Jobless Claims 194K vs 199K Est — 4-Week Average Hits a New 2026 Low (2026-10-29)
• Core PCE +0.3% In Line, Headline +0.5% on Gasoline — Real Spending Stalls (2026-10-29)
• Q3 GDP 3.4% vs 3.2% Est — Price Index Drops to 2.3% From 6.1% (2026-10-29)
• Alphabet sinks NQ 1%. PCE and GDP next (2026-10-29)
• Warsh Says the Medicine Is Starting to Work — No Soft Target, No Steer on December (2026-10-28)
• Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00% on a 10-2 Vote — Cook and Hammack Dissent for a Hike (2026-10-28)
• Crude −1.9M vs Flat Est — Output Rebounds 723 kb/d, Gasoline Builds 3.9M (2026-10-28)
• Goods Trade Deficit $134.9B vs $130B Est — Capital Goods Imports Up 77% on the Year (2026-10-28)
• Ras Tanura claim lifts oil. Fed and Big Tech next (2026-10-28)
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing -2 vs 0 Est — Backlogs Sink to -21, Selling Prices Climb (2026-10-27)
• New Home Sales 676K vs 650K Est — Buyers Held Up Through the Yield Spike (2026-10-27)
• Consumer Confidence Jumps 7.5 to 91.7 vs 81.0 Est — September Revised Up 2.3 Points (2026-10-27)
• FHFA House Prices +0.3% vs 0.2% Est — Annual Rate Slips to 2.4% as July Revised Down (2026-10-27)
• Durable Goods +1.8% vs 1.5% Est on Aircraft — Core Capex Slows to +0.5% (2026-10-27)
• ADP Weekly Hiring Slips to 16,750 — Second Drop and the First Downward Revision (2026-10-27)
• Anthropic lifts chips. Euro and gold give way (2026-10-27)
• No Iran strike. Oil gives back 2% (2026-10-26)
• UMich Sentiment Revised Up to 48.0 vs 46.3 Est — Inflation Expectations Hold at 4.7% (2026-10-23)
• Flash PMIs: Composite 57.6 in Line — Selling Prices Rise Fastest Since August 2022 (2026-10-23)
• Biggest bond rally since 2023. Oil adds 1.5% (2026-10-23)
• Natural Gas +77 Bcf vs +79 Est — Seventh Week Under Normal, Surplus Down to 35 (2026-10-22)
• Jobless Claims 194K vs 200K Est — Lowest Since July, but Seasonals Drove the Beat (2026-10-22)
• AI spend doubts hit NQ. Saudi strike lifts Brent 2.7% (2026-10-22)
• Crude −3.1M vs −0.8M Est — Output Falls Again as Exports Drop 1.1M b/d (2026-10-21)
• Super Micro lifts chips. Netflix sinks 6% (2026-10-21)
• Pending Home Sales -7.3% vs -0.5% Est — All Four Regions Down, -11.3% on the Year (2026-10-20)
• Housing Starts 1.221M vs 1.30M Est — Single-Family Permits Lowest Since March 2023 (2026-10-20)
• ADP Weekly Hiring Falls to 18,500 From a Revised 26,000 — Lowest Since Late August (2026-10-20)
• Kospi sinks 3.7% on AI doubts. Brent bid again (2026-10-20)
• NQ bounces 1.3% off its worst week. Europe sells (2026-10-19)
• Capacity Utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% Est — Highest Since 2023, Utilities Did the Lifting (2026-10-16)
• Import Prices +1.1% vs +0.8% Est — Biggest Annual Rise Since 2022, Nonfuel Up 6.0% (2026-10-16)
• Warsh gives no hike signal. WTI gives back 2% (2026-10-16)