Market notes from the Phantom desk

Notes on every major economic release — what the print said, what moved underneath it, and what it means for the session.

Recent notes

• Japan hiked to a 31-year high. The yen fell anyway (2026-09-18)
• Natural Gas +44 Bcf vs +49 Est — 29 Bcf Below the Five-Year Normal, and South Central Drew (2026-09-17)
• Pending Home Sales +0.3% m/m but -4.7% y/y — Contracts Falling Faster Than Closings (2026-09-17)
• Philly Fed 37.8 vs 31.3 Est — Firms' Own Price Expectations Highest Since 1981 (2026-09-17)
• Housing Starts 1.275M vs 1.32M Est — but July Was Revised Up 70K and Single-Family Rose 7.6% (2026-09-17)
• Jobless Claims 196K vs 208K Est — a Sub-200K Print and the Insured Rate at 1.1% (2026-09-17)
• The Fed took the rally. Crude handed it back (2026-09-17)
• Warsh Did Not Submit a Dot — the Chair Sat Out the Projection, and October Is Now a Coin Flip (2026-09-16)
• Fed Hikes to 3.75%-4.00% on a 12-0 Vote — the 2027 Dot Jumped 50bp and Shows No Cuts Next Year (2026-09-16)
• Crude Draws 640K vs 1.6M Est — API Said +7.1M and EIA's Balancing Item Swung 10M Barrels (2026-09-16)
• NAHB Builder Sentiment 32 vs 34 Est — Lowest in a Year as Mortgage Rates Hit 6.97% (2026-09-16)
• Business Inventories +0.8% vs +0.3% Est — Stock Built Three Times Faster Than It Sold (2026-09-16)
• Import Prices +0.7% vs +0.4% Est — China's Biggest Rise in 22 Years, and Fuel Didn't Do It (2026-09-16)
• Retail Sales +1.2% vs +0.8% Est, Core +1.4% vs +0.5% — Strength Survives the Fuel Strip (2026-09-16)
• The 10-year hits 2007 highs. The Fed decides today (2026-09-16)
• Empire State 7.6 vs 14.8 Est — Demand Stalls as Input Costs Hit a 38-Month High (2026-09-15)
• ADP Weekly Hiring 16,250 (from 12,250) — Nearly Double the July Trough, on FOMC Eve (2026-09-15)
• The Fed meets today. The dollar's already there (2026-09-15)
• AI leaders call a timeout. Nasdaq gaps lower (2026-09-14)
• UMich Sentiment 47.8 (vs 51.0 Est) — Inflation Expectations Jumped 0.6pp to 4.6% (2026-09-11)
• CPI +0.4% (vs +0.4% Est) — Core Printed 0.3% Against 0.2%, and Core Was the Session (2026-09-11)
• Core ran hot. Oil is undoing it in real time (2026-09-11)
• Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M (vs -1.27M Est) — But Total Petroleum Built 6.3 Million (2026-09-10)
• Natural Gas Storage +40 Bcf (vs +31 Est) — Salt Drew 11 Bcf and the Surplus Is Shrinking (2026-09-10)
• Final Wholesale Inventories +1.3% (vs +1.3% Est) — Two Sectors Made 59% of the Build (2026-09-10)
• Existing Home Sales 3.98M (vs 3.98M Est) — Supply Hits Its Highest Level Since 2019 (2026-09-10)
• Jobless Claims 206,000 (vs 205K Est) — The Four-Week Average Turned Back Down (2026-09-10)
• PPI +0.4% on a 24.1% Jump in Diesel (vs 0.4% Est) — But Core Rose Just 0.2% and the 43.7-Percent-Weight Services Block Was Exactly Flat (2026-09-10)
• The Treasury tripled its buyback. Yields rose anyway (2026-09-10)
• The biggest oil shock ever. Pharma broke the Dow (2026-09-09)
• Payrolls beat. Then oil went to $99 (2026-09-08)
• Nonfarm Payrolls +162,000 vs 56K Est — and July Was Revised From -23,000 to +21,000 (2026-09-04)
• Waller speaks. The hike becomes a coin flip (2026-09-04)
• ISM Services 55.4 and S&P Final 56.5 — the Two Surveys Disagree on Prices and Jobs (2026-09-03)
• Productivity 1.4% and Unit Labor Costs 1.2% — Labor's Share of Output Hit a Record Low (2026-09-03)
• Jobless Claims 206K vs 205K Est — the Four-Week Average Has Now Risen Four Weeks Running (2026-09-03)
• Yields take a breath. Oil doesn't (2026-09-03)
• JOLTS Openings 7.27M vs 7.30M Est — Hires Fell 278,000 and Every Labor Flow Shrank (2026-09-01)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs 55.2 Est — Every Demand Gauge Fell, Prices Froze at 71.1 (2026-09-01)
• Oil takes $90. Stocks stop pretending (2026-09-02)
• Oil reloads, yields follow. August still wins (2026-09-01)
• Warsh has work to do. The 2-year believes him (2026-08-31)
• Warsh's First Jackson Hole — Six-Month Inflation at 4.1% and Conditions Not Restrictive (2026-08-28)
• Michigan Sentiment Final 51.7 — Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Revised Down to 4.0% (2026-08-28)
• Software roars back. The labor market won't crack (2026-08-28)
• Natural Gas Storage Builds Just 15 Bcf vs 20 Est — Salt Caverns Drew 20 Bcf in a Week (2026-08-27)
• Goods Trade Deficit $118.8B vs $99B Est — Capital Goods Imports Up 46.9% on the Year (2026-08-27)
• Initial Jobless Claims 203,000 vs 208K Est — Not One State Saw Claims Rise by 1,000 (2026-08-27)
• PCE runs hot. Then Nvidia answered (2026-08-27)
• Personal Income +0.4% but Real Spending Flat at Zero — Saving Rate Back Up to 3.0% (2026-08-26)