Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-29

Alphabet sinks NQ 1%. PCE and GDP next

Rundown · 2026-10-29

The overnight move is single-stock, not macro. Alphabet is −11.2% pre-market after its third-quarter earnings missed, and that alone carries most of NQ's −1.08% against Wednesday's settle. Microsoft beat and is +1.5%, which is not enough to offset it. YM is −0.26% and sitting on its overnight low after Caterpillar dropped 9.5% pre-market on unchanged guidance. ES is −0.34%; RTY is +0.26% and has not traded below its settle all night. The dollar is flat (DXY −0.05%), gold is −0.30% and WTI is −0.98% on reports of renewed US-Iran outreach. The 10-year closed Wednesday at 5.05% (US Treasury), +6bp, while the 2-year fell 3bp, so the curve steepened after the Fed. This brief was written later than usual: quotes are as of about 07:45 ET. At that time nothing on today's US calendar had printed. PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims land at 08:30; the ECB decides at 09:15 ET, an hour earlier than usual because Europe has already changed its clocks.

Overnight

• Against Wednesday's settles, about 07:45 ET: ES −0.34% · NQ −1.08% · YM −0.26% · RTY +0.26%. The small caps are higher while the Nasdaq is down more than 1%. That split comes from megacap earnings, not from the economy.
• Ranges since the 6pm reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.43%, all of it below the settle (from 0.12% below to 0.56% below), and sits mid-range. NQ has ranged 1.04%, also entirely below its settle (0.62% below to 1.66% below), and sits just above mid-range: it reopened well below its settle and has not come back. YM has the widest range, 1.12%, from 0.85% above its settle to 0.26% below, and sits at the low: it has given up the whole overnight gain. RTY has ranged 0.55%, entirely above its settle (0.20% to 0.75% above), and sits near the bottom of that range.
• Asia was mixed and tech-led. Nikkei +1.10% was the only major index to finish higher. Kospi −1.2% after Samsung Electronics' chip division missed expectations, which added to doubts about returns on AI spending a day after SK Hynix had lifted the region. Hang Seng −0.59%, Shanghai −0.82%, ASX 200 +0.50%.
• Europe is firmer. DAX +0.90%, CAC 40 +0.94%, STOXX 600 +0.47%, FTSE 100 +0.31%; Spain's IBEX 35 is −0.77%. Shell and TotalEnergies results benefited from the Middle East supply disruption. European indices have not followed the Nasdaq lower, which keeps the overnight weakness narrow.
• Oil diplomacy, dated Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Vice President Vance wrote to Iran's National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, to revive peace talks. President Trump played it down, saying he had not directed the contact and that the letter concerned medical supplies. Saudi Arabia still has not confirmed any damage at Ras Tanura from Tuesday's claimed Houthi strike.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY −0.05%, flat after Wednesday's post-Fed dip. The dollar slipped about 0.25% after the decision, when the Fed declined to promise a December hike, and has not moved overnight. Its overnight range is only about 0.26%. With PCE, GDP and the ECB all due within 45 minutes of each other, the dollar is waiting.
• 6E: EUR/USD −0.09%, near 17-month lows. The pair has fallen nearly 5% over two months on the energy shock. The ECB decides at 09:15 ET with the deposit rate at 2.50% (ECB) after hikes in June and September. A hold is almost fully priced; euro-area inflation is 3.8% (Eurostat, September). Futures put more than 80% on a December hike, so whether Lagarde keeps December open at the 09:45 ET press conference is what matters for 6E. The ECB has also announced that Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027.
• 6A: AUD/USD −0.27%, the weakest major. It moved with the fall in Asian tech stocks. We found no Australia-specific catalyst this morning.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.15%, the Canadian dollar firmer. The Bank of Canada raised its rate 25bp to 2.50% (Bank of Canada) on Wednesday, as most expected. The Canadian dollar has held up overnight even with crude lower.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.09%. Steady. The BoJ decides Friday, and intervention warnings remain the backdrop.
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.02%. Flat; no UK catalyst.
• Fed odds. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed) after a 10-2 hold in which Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented in favour of a hike. CME FedWatch was reported at 80-85% for a December hike after the meeting (FXStreet; other wires 83-85%), up from about 78% before it. The last prediction-market reading we could find was about 73% on 26 October (Kalshi and Polymarket average), from before the meeting. We could not get a post-meeting prediction-market reading this morning.

Energy & Metals

• CL: +2.88% Wednesday, −0.98% overnight. WTI has ranged 1.70% overnight, entirely below Wednesday's settle (0.46% to 2.16% below), and sits in the upper third of that range: it is holding above $100. Brent rose about 1.3% Wednesday and is about 1% lower this morning.
• The mechanism. Wednesday's gain came from the Ras Tanura claim and the EIA's 1.9M-barrel crude draw against a flat consensus. Overnight, the Vance-Rezaei report has taken some of that premium back out. Neither story is settled: Saudi Arabia has confirmed intercepting missiles but not any damage, and Trump has distanced himself from the letter. Crude is trading reports, not barrels, in both directions.
• GC: −0.56% Wednesday, −0.30% overnight. That settle was struck at 13:30 ET, before the Fed. Gold rallied after the decision, when the dollar dipped and 2-year yields fell, and reopened about 0.74% above the settle. It has since given all of that back: the overnight range is 1.35% (0.74% above to 0.61% below), and price sits in the lower quarter. It is still above $4,000.
• Why gold is soft. The 10-year rising to 5.05% raises the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing, and with December hike pricing above 80%, the 08:30 PCE print is the next test. Gold's overnight weakness has come with a flat dollar, so it is a rates trade, not a dollar trade.

Where We Left Off

• Wednesday's RTH: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow +0.19%, Nasdaq Composite +0.27%, Russell 2000 +0.41% (AP; MarketWatch matches all four). The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.55%. The Dow Transports fell 2.46%, led by C.H. Robinson −11.1%, and the Dow Utilities −1.08%.
• Treasury yields Wednesday: 10-year 5.05% (+6bp), 2-year 4.67% (−3bp), 30-year 5.37% (+7bp) (US Treasury, 28 October). The 2s10s spread widened from 29bp to 38bp in a day. The front end fell because the Fed did not commit to December; the long end rose anyway.
• Breadth was thin. Six of 11 sectors finished lower. The gains came from single names: Oracle +10.7% on its free-cash-flow outlook and Vertiv +16.5% on a beat and raise. Real estate and utilities lagged as long yields rose.
• What carries over: the long end. Stocks have shrugged off the 10-year's move back above 5% so far. A hot PCE print hits a curve that is already steepening, and that matters more for NQ's valuation than the Fed's December decision does.

Yesterday's Data

• Fed holds on a 10-2 vote, two dissents for a hike: the statement leaves December open rather than promised.
• Warsh: the medicine is starting to work: no soft target, no steer on December; the dollar slipped 0.25%.
• Crude −1.9M vs flat estimate: output rebounded 723 kb/d and gasoline built 3.9M.
• Goods trade deficit $134.9B vs $130B expected: trade is set to subtract from Q3 GDP.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · Q3 GDP advance, q/q annualized · 3.2% · 2.2% · USD · ES/NQ · GC

08:30 · Q3 core PCE prices advance, q/q · 2.4% · 3.3% · USD · GC

08:30 · PCE price index, Sep, m/m and y/y · 0.5% · 3.6% · 0.3% · 3.4% · USD · GC

08:30 · Core PCE price index, Sep, m/m and y/y · 0.3% · 3.1% · 0.2% · 3.0% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Personal income and spending, Sep · 0.3% · 0.6% · 0.2% · 0.9% · USD

08:30 · Initial jobless claims, w/e 24 Oct · 199K · 194K · USD

08:30 · Continuing claims, w/e 17 Oct · 1,720K · 1,728K · USD

09:15 · ECB rate decision · hold at 2.50% · 2.50% · 6E · DXY

09:45 · Lagarde press conference · n/a · n/a · 6E · DXY

10:30 · EIA natural gas storage, w/e 23 Oct · 75 Bcf · 77 Bcf · NG

11:30 · 4-week and 8-week bill auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

13:00 · 7-year note auction · n/a · 5.085% · rates · GC · NQ

After close · Amazon and Intel earnings · n/a · n/a · NQ · ES

Consensus: TradingEconomics; ECB expectation from FXStreet. Release times from the BEA, DOL and EIA schedules. Apple reports Monday, 2 November, not today. Tomorrow: Q3 employment cost index at 08:30, Chicago PMI at 09:45, and the BoJ decision overnight.

08:30 is the fulcrum, and it is three releases at once. The monthly core PCE (0.3% expected) is the inflation read that bears on December odds already above 80%. Q3 GDP (3.2% expected) tells you whether the economy can carry those hikes. A hot core print on top of a 5.05% 10-year would test NQ and gold; a soft one would test the dollar. Forty-five minutes later the ECB lands on a euro near 17-month lows, so 6E gets two shocks before 10:00. The 7-year auction at 13:00 is the afternoon test for the long end.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Pre-market as of about 07:55 ET; Wednesday's moves close to close.

• GOOGL −11.2% / GOOG −11.0% pre-market after +1.3% / +1.6% Wednesday. Alphabet's third-quarter earnings missed estimates, with a loss on its equity holdings weighing on profit; revenue was slightly short, while Google Cloud revenue roughly doubled. With both share classes in the top tier of the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, this one name explains most of NQ's overnight fall.
• CAT −9.5% pre-market, flat Wednesday. Caterpillar beat on earnings and revenue and reported a record backlog, but held its full-year outlook unchanged. It is one of the highest-priced stocks in the price-weighted Dow, so a fall this size is the largest single drag on YM this morning. It is the most likely reason YM gave up an overnight gain of nearly 0.9%.
• MSFT +1.5% pre-market after −0.06% Wednesday. Azure grew 48% and Microsoft beat on revenue and earnings. It is a top Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weight and a Dow member, so it is the main offset in all three.
• NOW −19.2% pre-market after −3.0% Wednesday. ServiceNow missed on adjusted EPS and guided fourth-quarter subscription bookings (cRPO) growth below estimates, which revived fears that AI will disrupt its software. It is an S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 member; the hit to software sentiment matters more than its weight.
• LLY +4.4% pre-market: Eli Lilly raised its outlook for the third time this year on Zepbound sales. It is the largest healthcare weight in the S&P 500 and a partial offset for ES.
• AMZN −1.6% pre-market before its report after the close, and INTC −3.2% before its own. Wednesday's S&P leaders, ORCL +10.7% and VRT +16.5%, are −1.6% and −3.2% pre-market.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Wednesday's calls. We asked whether Saudi Arabia would confirm damage at Ras Tanura. It has not, and crude still settled +2.9% before giving back about 1% overnight on diplomacy. We asked whether the YM-NQ split would survive the open. It did not: the Dow and Nasdaq finished within 0.1% of each other. It is back this morning, from different names. We asked whether the Fed would lean on December. The statement did not, but the market did: FedWatch odds rose to 80-85%, and the dollar fell 0.25%.
• Whether NQ's losses stay concentrated in Alphabet. If the cash open shows the rest of the megacaps holding (MSFT up, NVDA roughly flat pre-market), the move is one stock. If semis and software follow ServiceNow and Samsung lower, it is a sector move.
• Whether the long end keeps rising. The 10-year at 5.05% and the 2s10s at 38bp are the backdrop for NQ and GC. A move in either direction after PCE matters more than the headline.
• Whether the ECB keeps December open. A hold is priced. A Lagarde who sounds uncommitted would add to the euro's fall; one who backs December would test the dollar.
• Whether crude's premium comes back. Overnight, the market has priced the Vance letter. A Saudi damage report, or a firm Iranian rejection, would reverse that.

The Bottom Line

Overnight, two earnings reports moved two different indices: Alphabet took NQ down 1%, and Caterpillar took YM from an overnight gain to its low. Europe is higher, small caps are higher, and the dollar has not moved, so this is not a macro morning yet. It becomes one at 08:30, when PCE and Q3 GDP land on a 10-year back above 5% and December hike odds above 80%. The ECB follows at 09:15 and Amazon reports after the close. The references are wide in YM and NQ and narrow in ES. The session's first test is whether the data turns a single-stock selloff into a rates story.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._