Calendar › Trade balance (goods and services) › 2026-11-04
Trade Deficit $105.0B vs $108B Est — Imports Hit Another Record at $426.6B
Fundamentals · 2026-11-04
US trade deficit -$105.0B in September (vs -$108.0B est; August revised to -$105.7B from -$105.6B) — $0.7B narrower, still the fifth-widest month in BEA's series back to 1992; imports $426.6B, +1.2%, a second straight record; exports $321.5B, +1.9%; goods deficit $135.9B, services surplus $30.9B; capital goods imports $158.0B (Census basis), +$11.6B on the month and +77.8% y/y, with computers +$7.6B and computer accessories +$5.7B; nonmonetary gold imports -$2.7B; Census-basis goods deficit $135.1B, 2.2% wider; real goods deficit $119.5B, +3.0%, widest since March 2025; three-month average $101.2B, up $11.3B
What It Changes
- The headline beat by $3.0B, and the beat is mostly gold. The balance-of-payments goods deficit narrowed $0.7B because BEA's gold adjustment cut $3.6B from imports. On a Census basis, before that adjustment, the goods deficit widened 2.2%.
- Imports set a record for a second month. $426.6B tops August's revised $421.4B. Capital goods imports alone rose $11.6B to $158.0B, almost all of it computers and computer accessories, and are 77.8% above September 2025.
- It confirms the Q3 GDP drag rather than adding to it. The real goods deficit averaged $113.9B a month in Q3 against $92.6B in Q2, the gap behind the 3.32pp net-export subtraction in last week's advance GDP.
- It does not move the Fed. Nothing here touches the inflation picture the December hike debate rests on, and it printed in the same 08:30 slot as the Treasury refunding, which goes straight at rates.
Impact
- USD — Mixed — a narrower-than-expected headline and record import demand pull in opposite directions, and neither changes the rate path the dollar trades on.
- The deficit is $0.7B narrower on the month but averaged $101.2B over Q3, against $66.6B in Q2.
- Import demand this strong reflects domestic investment rather than weakness, and capital goods are 46% of Census-basis goods imports.
- We did not get a clean read on the release minute: the refunding statement landed at the same time, so any move at 08:30 cannot be credited to trade.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — the import bill is an accounting subtraction from GDP, but the read is strongest for NQ, where it confirms the AI hardware build-out.
- Computer imports rose $7.6B and computer accessories $5.7B in one month, while semiconductor imports fell $1.2B.
- Taiwan's goods deficit is $171.7B year to date, 82% wider than 2025, the supply chain behind hyperscaler spending.
- Gold (GC) — Mixed — the release does not change real yields, and physical flows fell on both sides: nonmonetary gold imports -$2.7B and exports -$3.4B.
- BEA strips nonmonetary gold out when it builds GDP, so the swing moves the headline without touching growth.
- Gold is trading on the dollar and long-end yields this morning, per The Open, not on trade.
- 6C — Slight bearish — US imports from Canada fell $3.0B to $34.1B, narrowing the deficit with Canada to $4.4B from $7.1B, which reverses most of August's jump in demand for Canadian goods.
Inside The Number
The goods and services deficit narrowed $0.7 billion to $105.0 billion in September, against a $108.0 billion consensus (TradingEconomics). August was revised to $105.7 billion from $105.6 billion. Exports rose $5.8 billion to $321.5 billion and imports rose $5.2 billion to $426.6 billion, the largest monthly import bill in BEA's seasonally adjusted series back to 1992, beating August's revised $421.4 billion. Only January to March 2025, the tariff front-running months, and August 2026 ran wider deficits.
The hidden number is the gap between the two goods deficits. On the balance-of-payments basis used for the headline, the goods deficit narrowed $0.7 billion to $135.9 billion. On a Census basis, the customs count before BEA's adjustments, it widened $3.0 billion, or 2.2%, to $135.1 billion. BEA's own note explains the difference: an adjustment for nonmonetary gold imports. Net adjustments on the import side fell to $2.7 billion from $6.2 billion. Take gold out and September was a wider month, not a narrower one.
The composition is the same story as August, only louder. Capital goods imports rose $11.6 billion to $158.0 billion, with computers up $7.6 billion and computer accessories up $5.7 billion, while semiconductors fell $1.2 billion. Capital goods imports are now 77.8% higher than September 2025 ($88.8 billion) and make up 46% of Census-basis goods imports, against 33% a year ago. Consumer goods rose $2.4 billion, led by pharmaceutical preparations (+$2.9 billion). Industrial supplies fell $3.7 billion, on gold (-$2.7 billion) and crude (-$1.3 billion). This is the AI build-out arriving at the border as finished servers rather than chips.
Exports did better than the headline suggests. Goods exports rose $5.1 billion to $211.0 billion. Capital goods exports rose $3.8 billion to $73.3 billion, the highest in the two years of data in this release, with computers +$1.3 billion and civilian aircraft +$0.7 billion. Foods, feeds and beverages rose $1.9 billion, $1.3 billion of it soybeans, and crude exports rose $1.2 billion. Services exports rose $0.7 billion to $110.5 billion, a record, and services imports rose $0.8 billion to $79.7 billion, also a record.
In real terms the month was wider, which is what counts for GDP. The real goods deficit (2017 dollars) widened 3.0% to $119.5 billion, the widest since March 2025. Real goods imports rose 1.4% against 2.4% nominal on a Census basis, which implies goods import prices rose about 1.0% in the month (our calculation from the two series, not a BEA figure). Real exports rose only 0.1% against 2.5% nominal. The real goods deficit averaged $113.9 billion a month in Q3, against $92.6 billion in Q2. The advance GDP estimate on 29 October already showed net exports subtracting 3.32 percentage points, with goods imports up 26.4% annualized. September's real data came in wider than August's, so the second estimate on 25 November has no reason to shrink that drag. The goods-only advance report on 28 October put the Census-basis goods deficit at $134.9 billion; the full report has $135.1 billion, so the advance read held.
The Internals
Metric · September · August (revised) · Change · Read
Total balance · -$105.0B · -$105.7B · $0.7B narrower · Fifth-widest since 1992
Goods balance (BOP basis) · -$135.9B · -$136.6B · $0.7B narrower · Gold adjustment did it
Goods balance (Census basis) · -$135.1B · -$132.1B · $3.0B wider · Advance report had $134.9B
Services surplus · $30.9B · $30.9B · under $0.1B · Flat
Total exports · $321.5B · $315.7B · +$5.8B (+1.9%) · Below April's $329.9B record
Total imports · $426.6B · $421.4B · +$5.2B (+1.2%) · Record, series from 1992
Goods exports · $211.0B · $205.9B · +$5.1B · Capital goods led
Goods imports · $346.9B · $342.5B · +$4.4B · Record
Services exports · $110.5B · $109.8B · +$0.7B · Record
Services imports · $79.7B · $78.9B · +$0.8B · Record
Capital goods imports (Census) · $158.0B · $146.4B · +$11.6B · +77.8% y/y
Capital goods exports (Census) · $73.3B · $69.5B · +$3.8B · Computers, aircraft
Industrial supplies imports · $59.2B · $62.9B · -$3.7B · Gold -$2.7B, crude -$1.3B
Industrial supplies exports · $76.7B · $77.8B · -$1.0B · Gold -$3.4B, crude +$1.2B
Consumer goods imports · $59.8B · $57.5B · +$2.4B · Pharmaceuticals +$2.9B
Consumer goods exports · $21.8B · $21.1B · +$0.8B · Pharmaceuticals +$0.7B
Auto imports · $34.3B · $35.7B · -$1.4B · Softer
Auto exports · $11.9B · $12.6B · -$0.7B · Softer
Food, feed and beverage imports · $18.1B · $18.6B · -$0.5B · Softer
Food, feed and beverage exports · $16.0B · $14.1B · +$1.9B · Soybeans +$1.3B
Petroleum imports · $20.3B · $20.6B · -$0.3B (-1.5%) · Steady
Petroleum balance · +$11.3B · +$9.2B · +$2.1B · Exports $31.6B
Non-petroleum goods balance · -$146.4B · -$141.3B · $5.1B wider · Widest since March 2025
Real goods deficit (2017 dollars) · -$119.5B · -$116.0B · $3.5B wider (+3.0%) · Q3 average $113.9B vs Q2 $92.6B
Real goods imports · $271.6B · $268.0B · +1.4% · Nominal +2.4%
Real goods exports · $152.2B · $152.0B · +0.1% · Nominal +2.5%
Three-month average deficit · $101.2B · $89.9B · +$11.3B · $36.5B wider y/y
Year-to-date deficit · $662.3B · $754.7B (2025) · -12.2% · 2025 base inflated by Q1 front-running
August Census-basis and end-use figures are as revised in this release. The real August figure was revised to $116.0B from the $114.7B first published.
Where The Deficit Sits
The country data (goods, Census basis, seasonally adjusted) show the deficit still moving toward the Asian electronics supply chain and Mexico. August figures are as shown in this release.
Partner · September · August · Year to date 2026 · Year to date 2025
Mexico · -$28.7B · -$27.7B · -$185.2B · -$147.3B
Vietnam · -$25.3B · -$24.0B · -$188.7B · -$128.6B
Taiwan · -$21.9B · -$18.3B · -$171.7B · -$94.1B
China · -$17.9B · -$16.4B · -$131.2B · -$162.7B
European Union · -$14.2B · -$11.0B · -$80.1B · -$189.2B
South Korea · -$12.2B · -$9.4B · -$66.9B · -$44.2B
Germany · -$7.9B · -$6.2B · -$50.3B · -$53.7B
Italy · -$6.3B · -$4.3B · -$27.8B · -$25.3B
Malaysia · -$5.3B · -$6.0B · -$38.8B · -$22.8B
Japan · -$4.8B · -$3.7B · -$34.8B · -$49.6B
India · -$4.5B · -$6.2B · -$36.6B · -$46.0B
Canada · -$4.4B · -$7.1B · -$39.6B · -$38.0B
Ireland · -$3.0B · -$2.5B · -$27.1B · -$106.1B
Switzerland · -$1.3B · -$0.4B · +$17.3B · -$47.6B
United Kingdom · +$3.0B · +$3.6B · +$34.5B · +$18.2B
Netherlands · +$7.7B · +$7.7B · +$68.6B · +$43.2B
- Taiwan was the biggest monthly mover: imports from Taiwan rose $4.2B to $27.3B against exports +$0.6B, widening the deficit $3.6B. Year to date it is 82% wider than 2025.
- The EU deficit widened $3.2B as imports rose $2.6B and exports fell $0.6B. South Korea's widened $2.8B.
- Canada went the other way: imports from Canada fell $3.0B to $34.1B, cutting the deficit to $4.4B.
- Vietnam has the largest year-to-date deficit, $188.7B, ahead of Mexico's $185.2B. Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan are each larger than China, whose deficit is 19% narrower than 2025. The EU's is 58% narrower, as the pharmaceutical front-running of early 2025 drops out of the comparison.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open carried the trade balance at -$108.0B against a -$105.6B prior. It printed -$105.0B, $3.0B narrower than expected and narrower than August.
- The Open flagged that "the 08:30 slot is not empty" and put the fulcrum on the refunding, not the data. That held: the trade release changes Q3 growth arithmetic already in the GDP estimate, and nothing about rates.
What This Sets Up
- Next print: October trade, Tuesday 8 December 2026, with the Census goods-only advance report coming first.
- Q3 GDP second estimate, 25 November: September's real goods deficit came in wider than August's, so the 3.32pp net-export drag has no reason to shrink.
- Confirms the read: capital goods imports stay above $150B in October, which would put Q4 on the same import-heavy path.
- Breaks it: a sharp drop in computer imports, which would point to the server build-out pausing rather than to a healthier trade balance.
What Is This?
- What it is: The monthly U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (FT-900), published jointly by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis about five weeks after the month ends. Goods data come from U.S. Customs and Border Protection documents and are a complete count, not a survey; services are estimated from quarterly and annual surveys plus monthly indicators. It follows the Census Bureau's goods-only advance report, which comes out about a week earlier.
- Why it matters: Net exports are a direct component of GDP, so a wider deficit subtracts from growth, and the FT-900 is the main source BEA uses for the trade line in GDP. It also shows where the economy is spending: in 2026 the story is AI capital goods bought from Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico, and energy flows shaped by the Iran conflict.
- How to read it: Figures are seasonally adjusted and in nominal dollars, on a balance of payments basis unless marked Census basis. A negative balance is a deficit; "wider" means more negative. Use the real (2017-dollar) goods figures for GDP, because nominal figures include price changes. Nonmonetary gold is removed when BEA builds GDP, so large gold swings move the headline without affecting growth, as they did this month. The prior month is always revised, so compare against the revised figure, not last month's headline.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._