Calendar › Housing starts and building permits › 2026-10-20
Housing Starts 1.221M vs 1.30M Est — Single-Family Permits Lowest Since March 2023
Fundamentals · 2026-10-20
Housing starts 1,221,000 annual rate in September vs 1.30M consensus (TradingEconomics), -5.2% (±11.8%) m/m from an August revised up to 1,288,000 (first reported 1,275,000), and -7.4% (±11.5%) y/y; third straight monthly decline and the second-lowest reading since May 2020, above only May 2026's 1,182,000; single-family starts 859,000, -4.6%; 5+ unit starts 349,000, -7.2%; building permits 1,400,000 vs 1.39M est, -0.2%; single-family permits 845,000, -4.0%, lowest since March 2023; 5+ unit permits 503,000, +5.9%; completions 1,192,000, +2.2% m/m, -14.0% y/y; under construction 1,280,000, flat; authorized but not started 279,000, +9.8% y/y; July revised up again, to 1,369,000 from 1,309,000. Next release 18 November.
What It Changes
- The miss is real, the monthly drop is not provable. Starts came in 79,000 below consensus, but Census's own interval on the 5.2% fall runs from -17.0% to +6.6%, so the month alone is noise by the publisher's standard.
- The trend is the finding. Three straight declines take starts 15.2% below June's 1,439,000, and the July-September average of about 1,292,700 is 52,300 below April-June.
- Permits are the harder signal, and they point lower. Single-family authorizations fell to 845,000, the lowest since March 2023, and permits carry no sampling error. Builders are authorizing fewer houses.
- For the Fed, this is the rate channel working. With the 10-year at 5.15% (US Treasury) and September mortgage rates averaging 6.86% (Freddie Mac), housing is where tight policy shows, and this release says it is biting on single-family construction.
Impact
- USD — Slight bearish — a soft housing print takes a little from the hike case, but starts rarely moves the dollar, and an October 28 hike was already priced at only about 14-15% in this morning's Open.
- The miss is against a consensus that did not know about the upward revision to August, so part of the gap is a higher base, not a weaker month.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish for RTY — homebuilders and building-products names sit disproportionately in small caps, and falling single-family permits mean lower volumes ahead.
- ES, NQ and YM are trading on chips, oil and earnings this morning; a housing miss is not a large-cap driver.
- Gold (GC) — Neutral — no direct path from a construction print to gold, and gold was already falling against its usual drivers before 08:30.
Inside The Number
Privately-owned housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000 in September, 5.2% below the revised August rate of 1,288,000 and 7.4% below September 2025's 1,319,000. Consensus was 1.30M (TradingEconomics; The Open carried the same), so a miss of 79,000.
Start with the confidence intervals, because Census publishes them. The monthly change is -5.2% (±11.8%) and the yearly change -7.4% (±11.5%). Both ranges contain zero, so by the agency's own test it is "uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease." The same is true of single-family starts at -4.6% (±10.0%) and 5+ unit starts at -7.2% (±27.7%). One monthly starts change clears the test: the West, -23.2% (±22.9%), and only just.
So look at the level and the run, not the month. At 1,221,000, starts are lower than every month since May 2020 except May 2026's 1,182,000. That rank comes from Census's historical series. Revised, the last four months read 1,439,000, 1,369,000, 1,288,000 and 1,221,000: three straight declines and -15.2% in total. Census says it may take six months to establish a trend in starts. Three months of falls is half that, and it is moving one way.
The revisions went up, again. August was revised to 1,288,000 from 1,275,000, up 13,000. July was revised a second time, to 1,369,000 from the 1,309,000 published a month ago and the 1,239,000 first published, up 130,000 in total. Single-family August was revised down, though, to 900,000 from 918,000, and the 5+ figure up to 376,000 from 344,000. So the upward revisions are in apartments, and the single-family series is weaker than first reported.
Permits are the forward-looking half, and they come from an administrative count, not a sample. Census publishes them without confidence intervals. Total permits slipped 0.2% to 1,400,000, just above the 1.39M estimate. But the split is the story. Single-family permits fell 4.0% to 845,000, the lowest since March 2023 (838,000) and 4.8% below a year ago. Permits for buildings with five or more units rose 5.9% to 503,000, the highest since February. Year to date, single-family authorizations are down 2.8% and 5+ unit authorizations up 5.1%. Builders are pulling back on houses and adding apartments.
The backlog is building at the front of the pipeline. Units authorized but not started rose to 279,000, the highest in the thirteen months Census shows, and +9.8% (±8.0%) on the year, a significant change. In the West the figure is +28.6% (±17.2%). More permits are sitting unused, which fits builders who have approvals in hand and are waiting on demand or financing.
At the back of the pipeline, completions are still the weak part. They rose 2.2% on the month to 1,192,000, not significant, but are 14.0% (±11.1%) below a year ago, which is. Single-family completions are -11.0% (±10.0%) on the year, also significant. Units under construction held at 1,280,000, -3.3% (±2.7%) on the year. Fewer homes are being started, fewer are being finished, and the stock in progress is shrinking slowly.
The narrative point: the 17 September brief found single-family starts rising and permits soft. Permits were the better guide. Single-family starts have since been revised down for August and fell again in September, and single-family permits are at their lowest since March 2023. With the 30-year mortgage rate averaging 6.86% in September (Freddie Mac), up from 6.67% in August, and the 10-year at 5.15% (US Treasury) on Monday, the most rate-sensitive part of the economy is responding to the rate path.
The Internals
The headline series, seasonally adjusted annual rates in thousands:
Series · September · August revised · Change · September 2025 · vs year ago
Building permits · 1,400 · 1,403 · -0.2% · 1,444 · -3.0%
Housing starts · 1,221 · 1,288 · -5.2% · 1,319 · -7.4%
Housing completions · 1,192 · 1,166 · +2.2% · 1,386 · -14.0%
Units under construction · 1,280 · 1,280 · 0.0% · 1,323 · -3.3%
Authorized but not started · 279 · 278 · +0.4% · 254 · +9.8%
By structure type:
Measure · September · August revised · Change · Read
Single-family permits · 845 · 880 · -4.0% · Lowest since March 2023
Permits, 2 to 4 units · 52 · 48 · +8.3% · Small base
Permits, 5 units or more · 503 · 475 · +5.9% · Highest since February
Single-family starts · 859 · 900 · -4.6% · Not significant
Starts, 5 units or more · 349 · 376 · -7.2% · Not significant
Single-family completions · 840 · 861 · -2.4% · Down 11.0% on the year
Completions, 5 units or more · 339 · 295 · +14.9% · Not significant
Single-family under construction · 587 · 587 · 0.0% · Flat
5+ units under construction · 677 · 677 · 0.0% · Flat
The run in starts, after revisions:
Month · Total starts · Single-family · 5 units or more · Monthly change
May 2026 · 1,182 · 889 · 282 · -16.4%
June 2026 · 1,439 · 902 · 519 · +21.7%
July 2026 · 1,369 · 875 · 484 · -4.9%
August 2026 · 1,288 · 900 · 376 · -5.9%
September 2026 · 1,221 · 859 · 349 · -5.2%
Revisions:
Series · First published · Previously revised · Now · Change since first print
July starts · 1,239 · 1,309 · 1,369 · +130
August starts · 1,275 · n/a · 1,288 · +13
August single-family starts · 918 · n/a · 900 · -18
August 5+ unit starts · 344 · n/a · 376 · +32
August permits · 1,394 · n/a · 1,403 · +9
August completions · 1,128 · n/a · 1,166 · +38
What clears the Census Bureau's significance test, and what does not:
Change · Value · Confidence interval · Verdict
West starts, m/m · -23.2% · ±22.9% · Significant
Total starts, m/m · -5.2% · ±11.8% · Not significant
Single-family starts, m/m · -4.6% · ±10.0% · Not significant
Starts, 5 units or more, m/m · -7.2% · ±27.7% · Not significant
Midwest starts, m/m · -19.0% · ±20.7% · Not significant
South starts, m/m · +6.1% · ±15.5% · Not significant
Total starts, y/y · -7.4% · ±11.5% · Not significant
Starts, 5 units or more, y/y · -25.9% · ±21.5% · Significant
West starts, y/y · -25.4% · ±14.3% · Significant
Single-family starts, year to date · -4.0% · ±3.2% · Significant
Total completions, y/y · -14.0% · ±11.1% · Significant
Single-family completions, y/y · -11.0% · ±10.0% · Significant
Under construction, y/y · -3.3% · ±2.7% · Significant
Authorized not started, y/y · +9.8% · ±8.0% · Significant
By Region
Starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate in thousands:
Region · September · August · Change · Single-family September · Single-family change
Northeast · 114 · 114 · 0.0% · 49 · +4.3%
Midwest · 158 · 195 · -19.0% · 120 · -13.7%
South · 714 · 673 · +6.1% · 506 · -3.3%
West · 235 · 306 · -23.2% · 184 · -3.7%
Permits, seasonally adjusted annual rate in thousands:
Region · September · Change m/m · Change y/y · Single-family September · Single-family change
Northeast · 145 · +13.3% · -2.0% · 49 · -5.8%
Midwest · 213 · +0.5% · +4.4% · 121 · -6.9%
South · 759 · +1.5% · -1.8% · 505 · -4.4%
West · 283 · -10.2% · -11.3% · 170 · 0.0%
- The South was the only region where starts rose, +6.1% to 714,000, and all of that was multifamily; single-family starts there fell 3.3%.
- The West carried the decline. Starts -23.2%, the one significant monthly change in the release, and permits -10.2%, the largest regional drop.
- Single-family permits fell in three of four regions and were flat in the West. No region added single-family authorizations.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed starts at 1.30M consensus against a 1.275M prior and permits at 1.39M against 1.403M, and called housing starts "the only release that is likely to move anything, and mostly RTY and homebuilders."
- Starts missed by 79,000 and permits came in just above estimate. The RTY and homebuilder framing fits the composition: the weakness is in single-family permits, which is where builders' volumes come from.
What This Sets Up
- Next release: Wednesday 18 November, for October.
- Confirms the slowdown: single-family permits below 845,000 again, or a fourth straight fall in total starts, which would make the trend four of the six months Census says it needs.
- Breaks it: single-family permits back above 880,000, or another large upward revision to August and September starts like July's.
- Watch authorized but not started. If the backlog keeps rising while starts fall, builders are holding approvals they are not using, and starts can recover quickly once financing eases.
What Is This?
- What it is: New Residential Construction, published jointly by the Census Bureau and HUD, covering building permits, housing starts, completions, units under construction and units authorized but not started. Permits come from a survey of permit-issuing places (an administrative count, not subject to sampling error; response rate 76.3% this month). Starts and completions come from the Survey of Construction, a sample, so Census publishes 90% confidence intervals for them. Figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.
- Why it matters: Housing is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy. With the 10-year above 5% and the Fed weighing another hike, this is where tighter policy shows first, and single-family permits are the earliest hard read on what builders plan to do.
- How to read it: Permits lead starts by a month or two and are the more reliable series. For starts and completions, check the interval: if it includes zero, the monthly change is not statistically significant. Census says it can take three months to establish a trend in permits and six in starts, and preliminary figures are revised by 3.8% or less on average, so revisions to the two prior months matter.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._