Calendar › EIA weekly petroleum status (crude inventories) › 2026-10-28

Crude −1.9M vs Flat Est — Output Rebounds 723 kb/d, Gasoline Builds 3.9M

Fundamentals · 2026-10-28

Commercial crude −1.892M to 410.6M in the week ended 23 October (vs 0.0M est (TradingEconomics); API −2.03M), a fourth straight draw, now 1.3% below a year ago, from 2.4%; adjustment +189 kb/d, about 1.3M barrels, so measured flows point to a −3.2M draw; production +723 kb/d to 13.99 mb/d, reversing two weeks of falls; exports +1,412 kb/d to 4.85 mb/d, imports +616 kb/d to 6.37 mb/d; refinery runs −123 kb/d to 16.53 mb/d, utilization 92.8%; Gulf Coast −1.54M; Cushing −0.62M to 27.0M, ending a four-week build; SPR −0.10M to 282.6M; gasoline +3.870M vs −0.9M est; distillate −1.462M; total products supplied 20.2 mb/d, −1,022 kb/d; total commercial stocks −3.01M.

What It Changes

• A fourth straight draw, but a softer week underneath it. Commercial crude fell 1.9 million barrels against a flat consensus, close to the API's 2.0 million. The adjustment added about 1.3 million barrels, so measured flows actually point to a 3.2 million draw.
• Production came straight back. Output rose 723 kb/d to 13.99 mb/d, more than reversing the 710 kb/d two-week fall that last week's brief flagged. The supply-loss read from the past two weeks does not survive this print.
• Exports rebounded, as last week warned, and output absorbed it. Crude exports jumped 1.4 million b/d, about 9.9 million barrels out over the week. The production rebound put about 5.1 million back, which is why the draw stayed small.
• Gasoline is the bearish line. Stocks built 3.9 million against a 0.9 million draw expected, as gasoline supplied fell 625 kb/d. Total demand dropped more than 1 million b/d on the week.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Mixed, lean bearish — the headline draw beat a flat consensus, but production is back near 14 mb/d, gasoline built hard and total demand fell; the Ras Tanura premium, not this report, is carrying the price.
• The release minute was slightly lower: front-month WTI was −0.15% at 10:30 against its 10:29 close and back to +0.02% by 10:45 ET. Brent was −0.11% in the release minute.
• WTI was already +2.5% against Tuesday's settle at 10:29, before the report, on the claimed strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. This brief does not attribute that gain to the report.
• Gasoline moved most. November RBOB was −0.88% in the release minute and −1.1% by 10:35 against its 10:29 close, in line with the 3.9 million build. Heating oil was −0.12%, with the distillate draw close to expectations.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar, and the FOMC at 14:00 owns the day.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — energy names react at the margin, but there is no index-level read.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — the oil-to-inflation channel runs through crude prices, and the report barely moved them.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 1.892 million barrels to 410.625 million in the week ended 23 October, against a flat consensus (TradingEconomics; The Open carried the same). The API had reported a 2.03 million barrel draw on Tuesday evening, so EIA landed almost exactly on it. It is the fourth straight EIA draw, after −3.186 million, −8.557 million and −3.061 million, for −16.7 million over four weeks. Stocks are now 1.3% below the same week last year, from 2.4%, though that narrowing is mostly the year-ago comparison falling. Including the SPR, total crude fell 1.992 million to 693.2 million, 16.0% below a year ago.

The adjustment flattered the headline this week. EIA's crude balancing item printed +189 kb/d, about 1.32 million barrels over the week, after +47 kb/d last week. The commercial stock change was −270 kb/d; take the adjustment out and measured flows point to −459 kb/d, about a 3.2 million barrel draw. So the underlying draw was larger than the headline, by roughly the size of a normal week's noise.

Production snapped back. Domestic output rose 723 kb/d to 13.992 mb/d, after falls of 300 kb/d and 410 kb/d. Lower 48 production rose 753 kb/d to 13.510 mb/d, and Alaska fell 30 kb/d. Output is now 348 kb/d above the same week last year and back above the 13.98 mb/d it ran three weeks ago. EIA does not attribute weekly changes, and the weekly figure is an estimate later checked against monthly data, but a full reversal in one week says the two-week fall was not a lasting supply loss.

Exports did what last week's brief said they might. Crude exports rose 1,412 kb/d to 4.854 mb/d, after last week's 1.1 million b/d fall, and imports rose 616 kb/d to 6.374 mb/d. Net imports fell 796 kb/d to 1.520 mb/d. Over seven days the export rebound took about 9.9 million barrels out of US tanks, and the production rebound put about 5.1 million back. The four-week export average is 4.408 mb/d, 6.1% above a year ago.

Refiners eased off. Crude inputs fell 123 kb/d to 16.526 mb/d, still 8.6% above a year ago, and utilization dropped 0.6 points to 92.8%. The Midwest fell 2.1 points to 88.1% and the Gulf Coast 1.0 point to 94.9%, while the West Coast rose 3.1 points to 95.1% and the East Coast 0.9 points to 81.7%. The Rocky Mountain region held above capacity at 100.4%.

Regionally, Cushing finally drew. Cushing fell 0.624 million to 26.970 million, ending four straight weekly builds; it is still 19.5% above a year ago, from 30.0%. The Gulf Coast drew 1.542 million to 227.8 million, 2.8% below a year ago, a third straight draw for the export region. The West Coast drew 1.495 million and the East Coast 518,000. The Rocky Mountain region built 1.419 million and the Midwest outside Cushing about 0.87 million.

Gasoline turned the week. Stocks rose 3.870 million barrels to 209.2 million against a 0.9 million draw expected; the API had flagged a 2.39 million build. Gasoline supplied fell 625 kb/d to 8.358 mb/d, giving back last week's 575 kb/d jump, and blending components made up 3.48 million of the build. Gasoline is now only 0.7% below a year ago, from 5.2% last week. Distillate fell 1.462 million to 102.8 million, against a 0.9 million draw expected, as distillate supplied rose 475 kb/d to 4.207 mb/d; ultra-low-sulphur diesel fell 1.809 million. Distillate is 8.3% below a year ago, from 9.7%. Jet fuel fell 389,000, residual fuel 334,000 and propane 111,000. Total commercial petroleum stocks fell 3.006 million barrels, 4.4% below a year ago.

Demand was the weak spot. Total products supplied fell 1,022 kb/d to 20.209 mb/d. The four-week average is 20.799 mb/d, now only 0.2% above a year ago, against 3.2% last week. Gasoline's four-week average is 0.7% below last year, distillate's 0.6% below and jet fuel's 3.5% below. Product exports rose 267 kb/d to 7.674 mb/d. Counting crude and products together, the US was a net exporter of 4.839 mb/d, up 1,125 kb/d on the week.

The SPR drew again, barely. It fell 100,000 barrels to 282.583 million, about 14 kb/d. It is 30.9% below a year ago.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 23 October:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 410.625 · 412.517 · −1.892 · 415.966 · −1.3%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 282.583 · 282.683 · −0.100 · 409.097 · −30.9%

Total crude including SPR · 693.208 · 695.200 · −1.992 · 825.063 · −16.0%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 26.970 · 27.594 · −0.624 · 22.565 · +19.5%

Total motor gasoline · 209.180 · 205.310 · +3.870 · 210.738 · −0.7%

Distillate fuel oil · 102.824 · 104.286 · −1.462 · 112.189 · −8.3%

Ultra-low-sulphur distillate · 91.071 · 92.880 · −1.809 · 101.624 · −10.4%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 42.217 · 42.606 · −0.389 · 41.420 · +1.9%

Propane and propylene · 105.735 · 105.846 · −0.111 · 105.681 · +0.1%

Residual fuel oil · 23.399 · 23.733 · −0.334 · 21.802 · +7.3%

Fuel ethanol · 24.523 · 24.558 · −0.036 · 22.367 · +9.6%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,212.556 · 1,215.562 · −3.006 · 1,268.745 · −4.4%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 8.032 · −0.518 · 8.063 · −0.4%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 107.884 · +0.245 · 103.747 · +4.0%

Of which: Cushing · 26.970 · −0.624 · 22.565 · +19.5%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 227.776 · −1.542 · 234.313 · −2.8%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 24.915 · +1.419 · 23.361 · +6.6%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 42.019 · −1.495 · 46.482 · −9.6%

Alaska in-transit, not in the total · 5.038 · +0.508 · 5.275 · −4.5%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 13,992 · 13,269 · +723 · 13,644

Lower 48 production · 13,510 · 12,757 · +753 · 13,212

Crude imports · 6,374 · 5,758 · +616 · 5,051

Crude exports · 4,854 · 3,442 · +1,412 · 4,361

Net imports · 1,520 · 2,316 · −796 · 690

Refinery crude inputs · 16,526 · 16,649 · −123 · 15,219

Commercial stock change · −270 · −437 · +167 · −980

Adjustment · +189 · +47 · +142 · −481

Stock change excluding the adjustment · −459 · −484 · +25 · −499

The adjustment, six weeks:

Week ended · Adjustment, kb/d · About, million barrels · Headline change, million barrels

18 September · +215 · +1.5 · +2.97

25 September · −238 · −1.7 · +0.92

2 October · −589 · −4.1 · −3.19

9 October · −308 · −2.2 · −8.56

16 October · +47 · +0.3 · −3.06

23 October · +189 · +1.3 · −1.89

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Total · 92.8% · 93.4% · −0.6 · 86.6%

East Coast · 81.7% · 80.8% · +0.9 · 93.2%

Midwest · 88.1% · 90.2% · −2.1 · 81.0%

Gulf Coast · 94.9% · 95.9% · −1.0 · 91.0%

Rocky Mountain · 100.4% · 100.6% · −0.2 · 93.6%

West Coast · 95.1% · 92.0% · +3.1 · 74.7%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · Four-week average · vs year ago, four-week

Total · 20,209 · −1,022 · 20,799 · +0.2%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,358 · −625 · 8,629 · −0.7%

Distillate fuel oil · 4,207 · +475 · 3,978 · −0.6%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,679 · −133 · 1,703 · −3.5%

Propane and propylene · 760 · −259 · 941 · −2.2%

Residual fuel oil · 372 · −60 · 323 · +43.6%

Other oils · 4,834 · −420 · 5,226 · +2.2%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open set no direction for the print, only the backdrop. It carried consensus at flat after a 3.06 million draw, and said EIA "lands on a crude market already carrying a geopolitical premium" — The Open. The draw came in 1.9 million against flat.
• The premium held and grew; the report did not add to it. WTI was +1.35% at The Open's 06:35 snapshot and +2.5% by 10:29. The release minute was −0.15%, so the Ras Tanura claim, not the inventories, is still the price story.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA petroleum report: Wednesday, 4 November, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 30 October.
• Scoring last week's two questions. Production did not fall a third time; it rebounded to 13.99 mb/d, so the two-week fall reads as noise. Exports did bounce back above their four-week average, but the draw did not get much larger because output came back with them.
• Demand is now the read to confirm or break. Total products supplied fell more than 1 million b/d and the four-week average is only 0.2% above a year ago. A second weak week, with gasoline building again, would say demand is softening into November; a rebound says this week was a one-off.
• Watch Cushing. The first draw after four builds is small. If it continues, the WTI delivery point starts to tighten alongside the Gulf Coast; if it rebuilds, the tightness stays on the coast.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Wednesdays at 10:30am ET. It reports US crude and product inventories, production, imports and exports, refinery runs and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday, from surveys of refiners, terminals, pipelines and importers. Weekly production is an estimate that EIA later checks against monthly data.
• Why it matters: Crude has been driven this autumn by Middle East supply disruptions, attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and, this week, a claimed strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. US inventories show whether the physical market is tightening or loosening at home. Gasoline and distillate stocks also feed directly into pump and diesel prices, which the inflation reports have flagged as some of the sharpest increases.
• How to read it: Start with commercial crude against consensus and against the API figure released the evening before. Then check the adjustment, EIA's balancing item: a large adjustment means the headline is not fully explained by measured flows. Read exports and production next, because those are the swing lines. Read Cushing separately, because it is the WTI delivery point. Then read gasoline and distillate with products supplied, which show whether demand or supply moved the stocks. Weekly trade figures swing widely, so use four-week averages for the trend.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._