Calendar › Import and export prices › 2026-10-16

Import Prices +1.1% vs +0.8% Est — Biggest Annual Rise Since 2022, Nonfuel Up 6.0%

Fundamentals · 2026-10-16

Import prices +1.1% m/m in September against a 0.8% consensus (TradingEconomics), after a downwardly revised +0.5% in August (first published +0.7%), and +8.1% y/y — the largest annual rise since July 2022. Fuel +4.8% (petroleum +4.6%, natural gas +1.6%), +34.5% y/y. Nonfuel +0.7% and +6.0% y/y, the most since April 2022; it has not fallen in a single month since August 2025. Ex food and fuels +0.7%, +6.2% y/y. Capital goods +0.9% for a second month, +8.4% y/y; computer and electronic products +1.5%, +12.4% y/y; finished metals +3.2%; consumer goods ex-autos +0.4%; autos +0.3%. China +0.7%, the most since December 2021 — and August's record China rise was revised from 1.0% to 0.5%. Exports +2.2%, +11.6% y/y; agricultural exports +2.6%, the most since November 2022. Terms of trade with the EU +3.6%, a series record. Next release Tuesday 17 November.

What It Changes

• Strip out fuel and it is still hot. Fuel did about 0.4 percentage points of the 1.1% by weight; nonfuel did the rest, rising 0.7% for a second month and reaching 6.0% y/y, the fastest since April 2022. This is a goods-price pipeline running at a 2022 pace, not just an oil story.
• It lands on the same side as Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI. Core CPI has printed 0.3% twice, core goods CPI rose 0.3%, the fastest in seven months, and PPI rose 1.3%. Import prices exclude tariffs, so foreign sellers are not cutting prices to absorb the duties.
• It does not settle the October FOMC on its own. Reported odds of a 27-28 October hike fell to about 15-17% after Warsh's overnight remarks (FT and Bloomberg reports). The market barely moved on the print, and no hike-odds reading from after 08:30 could be verified.
• Last month's headline finding did not survive revision. The September brief led with China's record 1.0% rise in August. The BLS now has August at 0.5%. China's 0.7% in September is still its largest rise since December 2021, but the record is gone.

Impact

• USD — Slight bullish — a 1.1% print against 0.8% expected, with nonfuel at a four-year high, supports the hawkish side of the October decision, but the dollar barely reacted.
• DXY +0.05% from 08:29 to 09:09 ET, after first dipping 0.03% in the minutes after the print; it is still −0.22% on the day, the Warsh move from overnight.
• The 10-year yield fell about 1bp in the first five minutes, then rose to about 1bp above its 08:29 level by 09:09, and is about 4bp higher on the day after Thursday's close at 5.10% (US Treasury). The 2-year is about 1bp higher since 08:29 and little changed on the day, after closing Thursday at 4.77% (US Treasury).
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish — rising import costs for capital equipment hit the AI build-out first, and that is NQ's exposure.
• From 08:29 to 09:09 ET: ES +0.02%, NQ −0.20%. On the day ES +0.16%, NQ −0.29%, YM +0.12%, RTY +0.12%.
• NQ carries the specific exposure. Imported computer and electronic products rose 1.5% for a second straight month and are up 12.4% y/y, on an 18.5% weight in the import basket.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — a hot print nudges yields up, and gold is still trading against the 10-year.
• GC −0.21% from 08:29 to 09:09 ET, at worst −0.32%, as the 10-year turned higher. It is still +0.45% on the day.
• 6C — Mixed — import prices from Canada rose 1.3%, led by energy (nonmanufacturing +2.2%), so the US terms of trade with Canada fell 0.3%. USD/CAD +0.04% from 08:29, −0.13% on the day. Oil is doing more to move CAD this morning than this release is.

Inside The Number

Import prices rose 1.1% in September against a 0.8% consensus. That is the largest monthly rise since May's 1.8%. On the year they are up 8.1%, which the BLS says is the largest over-the-year rise since the index rose 8.8% for the year ended July 2022. The beat would have been bigger without revisions: August was cut to +0.5% from +0.7%, and July to −0.4% from −0.3%.

Fuel came back, but it does not explain the beat. Import fuel rose 4.8% after falls of 0.2% in August and 6.8% in July. Petroleum and petroleum products rose 4.6%, crude 4.0% and natural gas 1.6%. On the year, fuel is +34.5%, petroleum +35.4% and natural gas +96.5%, the largest annual rise in import gas prices since June 2022. Fuel is 8.9% of the basket, so by relative-importance arithmetic it added roughly 0.4 percentage points to the headline. The other 0.7 came from everything else.

That "everything else" is the finding. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7%, after a revised 0.6% in August, and the BLS notes they "have not declined on a monthly basis since August 2025". On the year they are +6.0%, the largest over-the-year rise since April 2022. Strip out food too and imports are +0.7% on the month and +6.2% on the year. The rise is broad: the BLS names capital goods, nonfuel industrial supplies, consumer goods and autos as drivers.

Capital goods are the heaviest category, and they keep accelerating. At 31.3% of the basket, capital goods rose 0.9% for a second straight month, and their annual rate rose to 8.4% from 7.3% a month ago. Nonelectrical machinery is +1.1% on the month and +10.4% on the year. The BLS names computers, peripherals and semiconductors and industrial and service machinery as the drivers, partly offset by scientific and medical machinery. The industry view is sharper still: imported computer and electronic products rose 1.5% for a second month and are up 12.4% y/y. The AI build-out is import-heavy, and its hardware is getting dearer at the border.

Metals are cooling, and August was smaller than first reported. Nonfuel industrial supplies rose 1.4% after a revised 1.3% in August, which was first published at 2.0%. Finished metals related to durable goods rose 3.2%. August's 5.7% jump, the biggest line in last month's report, is now 2.6%. On the year, finished metals are +18.5% and unfinished metals +25.3%, so the Section 232 tariffs are still showing up at the border, but less sharply than August's first estimate suggested.

Consumer goods are moving, slowly. Consumer goods excluding autos rose 0.4%, with manufactured durables up 0.7%. Autos, parts and engines rose 0.3%. On the year they are only +2.7% and +1.1%. That is the bridge to CPI, and it lines up with core goods CPI's 0.3% rise in September, the fastest in seven months. The big pressure is still on business inputs rather than the shelf, but the shelf is no longer flat.

China: still rising, but no longer a record. Import prices from China rose 0.7%, the largest monthly rise since December 2021, and are +3.1% y/y. Last month's brief led with August's 1.0% rise as the largest since the index began in 2004. The BLS has revised August to 0.5%. September's rise is still the largest in nearly five years, and the index has risen to 100.1, back above its December 2003 base of 100. But the record is gone, and a single month should be read as provisional.

On the export side the dollar is buying less abroad, not more. Export prices rose 2.2%, after a revised 1.2% (first published 0.6%), and are +11.6% y/y, the most since July 2022. Agricultural exports rose 2.6%, the most since November 2022, on soybeans, corn and wheat. Export fuels rose 8.7%. With export prices outpacing imports, the US terms of trade with the EU rose 3.6%, the largest monthly rise since the BLS began publishing those monthly changes in January 2018. With China they rose 2.0%, reversing August's fall, driven by a 2.7% jump in export prices to China, the most since March 2022.

The Internals

The headline series, with August's revisions:

Series · Sep m/m · Aug m/m (revised) · Aug as first published · y/y · Read

All imports · +1.1% · +0.5% · +0.7% · +8.1% · Consensus +0.8%; biggest annual rise since Jul 2022

Imports excluding fuel · +0.7% · +0.6% · +0.8% · +6.0% · Biggest annual rise since Apr 2022

Imports excluding food and fuels · +0.7% · +0.7% · +0.8% · +6.2% · The cleanest core read

Fuel imports · +4.8% · −0.2% · −0.1% · +34.5% · First rise since May

All exports · +2.2% · +1.2% · +0.6% · +11.6% · Biggest annual rise since Jul 2022

Agricultural exports · +2.6% · +0.4% · +0.5% · +9.0% · Biggest monthly rise since Nov 2022

Nonagricultural exports · +2.1% · +1.3% · +0.7% · +11.8% · Fuels and chemicals

Import categories by end use, with their weight in the basket:

Category · Weight · Sep m/m · Aug m/m (revised) · y/y · Read

Capital goods · 31.28% · +0.9% · +0.9% · +8.4% · Second 0.9% in a row; annual rate up from 7.3%

Consumer goods excluding automotives · 24.36% · +0.4% · +0.5% · +2.7% · Slow, but no longer flat

Industrial supplies and materials · 23.56% · +2.7% · +0.7% · +20.4% · Includes fuel

Automotive vehicles, parts and engines · 14.17% · +0.3% · 0.0% · +1.1% · First rise since July

Fuels and lubricants · 8.91% · +4.8% · −0.2% · +34.5% · Roughly 0.4pp of the headline

Foods, feeds and beverages · 6.63% · 0.0% · −0.6% · +2.9% · Vegetables and coffee up, sugar and fish down

Industrial supplies excluding fuels · 14.64% · +1.4% · +1.3% · +13.0% · August cut from 2.0%

Nonelectrical machinery · 24.92% · +1.1% · +1.2% · +10.4% · Inside capital goods; the AI hardware channel

The sub-lines doing the work:

Line · Sep m/m · Aug m/m (revised) · y/y · Read

Computer and electronic products (NAICS 334) · +1.5% · +1.5% · +12.4% · 18.5% weight; second 1.5% in a row

Finished metals related to durable goods · +3.2% · +2.6% · +18.5% · August first published at 5.7%

Nonmetals related to durable goods · +2.4% · +1.2% · +8.8% · Boxes, belting, glass

Unfinished metals related to durable goods · +0.3% · +1.9% · +25.3% · Cooling monthly, extreme annually

Crude petroleum · +4.0% · −3.5% · +29.8% · After three straight declines

Natural gas · +1.6% · −1.0% · +96.5% · Biggest annual rise since Jun 2022

Petroleum and coal products manufacturing · +5.7% · +9.3% · +50.6% · Refined products up 50% in a year

Primary metal manufacturing · +0.9% · +2.1% · +23.6% · Tariffed metals

Durable consumer goods, manufactured · +0.7% · +0.1% · +2.8% · The largest consumer-goods rise this month

Import prices by locality of origin:

Origin · Sep m/m · Aug m/m (revised) · y/y · Read

Asia Near East · +4.4% · −1.0% · +14.2% · Gulf energy suppliers

Asian newly industrialized economies · +2.1% · +2.7% · +12.5% · The regional hardware complex

Germany · +1.5% · −0.1% · +5.8% · Largest rise of any named EU country

Canada · +1.3% · −0.7% · +16.1% · Nonmanufacturing (energy) +2.2%

United Kingdom · +1.1% · +0.9% · +3.8% · August first published at 3.9%

Industrialized countries · +1.1% · 0.0% · +8.3% · Lifted by Canadian energy

China · +0.7% · +0.5% · +3.1% · Largest since Dec 2021; August first published at 1.0%

Japan · +0.6% · +0.2% · +1.1% · Lowest annual rate of any named partner

Mexico · +0.6% · +0.4% · +3.3% · Manufacturing +0.5%

Taiwan · +0.5% · +1.5% · +8.8% · Slower after August

European Union · +0.3% · +0.4% · +3.7% · France −1.0%

ASEAN · −0.2% · +0.6% · +2.4% · The only regional decline

Terms of trade, export prices divided by import prices:

Partner · Sep change · Aug change (revised) · y/y · Read

European Union · +3.6% · +0.1% · +10.1% · Largest monthly rise on record (since Jan 2018)

Germany · +3.2% · +1.4% · +12.5% · Export prices to Germany +4.8%

China · +2.0% · −0.6% · +4.3% · Export prices to China +2.7%

Mexico · +1.9% · +1.6% · +10.7% · Export prices to Mexico +2.5%

Japan · +1.1% · −0.7% · +4.9% · Export prices to Japan +1.7%

Canada · −0.3% · +1.6% · −6.7% · Canadian energy dearer

Where The Price Pressure Came From

Capital equipment first. Capital goods are 31.3% of the import basket, and nonelectrical machinery alone is 24.9%. Both rose about 1% for a second month. The BLS names computers, peripherals and semiconductors first. Imported computer and electronic products are up 12.4% in a year. For anyone modelling the cost of the AI build-out, this is the line that matters.

Then energy, from every direction. Import prices from Asia Near East, which includes the Gulf producers, rose 4.4%. Canadian nonmanufacturing imports, mostly oil and gas, rose 2.2%. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing rose 5.7% and is up 50.6% in a year. This is September data, and import fuel prices rose for the first time since May.

Metals: still high on the year, cooler on the month. Finished metals rose 3.2% and unfinished metals just 0.3%. Primary metal manufacturing rose 0.9%. Annual rates of 18% to 25% show the Section 232 duties are still in the price, but the monthly pace has slowed from what August's first estimate showed.

Consumer goods: a small but real move. Manufactured durables rose 0.7% and nondurables 0.2%. Apparel rose 0.9%. Automotive imports rose 0.3%, their first rise since July. None of these are large on their own, but every major consumer category rose, which matches core goods CPI's fastest rise in seven months.

Services: fares bounced, freight steadied. Import air passenger fares rose 12.6% after falls of 11.2% and 11.0%, led by European fares, up 22.5%. Import air freight rose just 0.1% but is +25.7% y/y. Export air freight fell 2.2%, though its annual rise of 18.8% is still the largest since September 2022.

The revisions are part of the story. August's headline, nonfuel, China, metals and UK figures were all revised down, and export prices were revised up. When a month is revised this much, the three-month trend is a better guide than the latest month. That trend is up: nonfuel import prices rose 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.7% in July, August and September.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open ran late and had this print in hand. The Open started at 08:55 ET and called import prices "hot on prices", with fuel at 4.8% but nonfuel at 0.7% as "the part that feeds core goods inflation." The internals back that up: nonfuel's annual rate is the highest since April 2022.
• It said the 10-year had started to rise again and gold had given back part of its gain. Both held to 09:09: the 10-year is about 1bp above its 08:29 level, and gold is −0.21% from 08:29 while still up on the day.
• It left open whether hike odds rebuild after the print. That is still open: no reading from after 08:30 could be verified.

What This Sets Up

• Next release: Tuesday 17 November at 08:30 ET, covering October. That comes after the 27-28 October FOMC, so this is the last import-price print the committee sees before deciding.
• Whether nonfuel holds at 0.6% or more. Three monthly rises of 0.6% to 0.7% would lock in a 2022-style pace. A fall back to 0.3% would make September look like a peak.
• Whether capital goods keep rising at 0.9%. The annual rate rose to 8.4% from 7.3% a month ago. A third 0.9% would push it toward 9%.
• Whether consumer goods keep moving. Consumer goods ex-autos are up just 2.7% on the year. Another 0.4% or more would confirm that import costs are reaching the shelf, as core goods CPI suggested.
• How September is revised. August's China, metals and nonfuel figures were all cut. Read November's revision to September before treating any single line here as settled.

What Is This?

• What it is: The US Import and Export Price Indexes, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measure the change in prices of goods and some services traded across the US border, in US dollars. Import prices are what US buyers pay foreign sellers, and export prices are what foreign buyers pay US sellers. The release breaks imports down by end use, by industry (NAICS), by product (Harmonized System) and by country or region of origin, and adds air freight and passenger fares. It also publishes terms-of-trade indexes, which divide export prices by import prices for each partner. The indexes are not seasonally adjusted and are reweighted annually with a two-year lag; current weights use 2024 trade values.
• Why it matters: It is the earliest read on inflation coming into the country, so it leads the goods side of CPI and PPI. It carries extra weight now for three reasons. Tariffs have been in force since April 2025, and this series shows whether foreign sellers are cutting prices to absorb them. Energy import prices have surged with the Gulf supply disruption. And the AI build-out relies on imported hardware, so computer and semiconductor prices at the border feed straight into US capex costs. With the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed) after the September hike and another FOMC on 27-28 October, every inflation input is being read for the next move.
• How to read it: Four cautions. Import prices exclude duties: the index measures the foreign seller's price, not the landed cost after tariffs, so a rising index means sellers are not absorbing tariffs, and the US buyer pays both. Fuel swings the headline, so the nonfuel and ex-food-and-fuels series are the better guide to underlying pressure. Locality indexes have different base periods (China is December 2003 = 100, Taiwan December 2018 = 100), so compare their changes, not their levels. And every month is revised for three months: August's China and metals figures were roughly halved this month, so treat a single month's move as provisional.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._