Calendar › S&P Global final US PMI › 2026-11-02

Final Manufacturing PMI Cut to 54.9 From 56.0 Flash — Selling Prices Fastest Since 2022

Fundamentals · 2026-11-02

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 54.9 final for October vs 56.0 flash and consensus, down from September's 55.9, a 52-month high; a second straight 1.1-point cut from flash to final (September: 57.0 flash, 55.9 final); above 50 for a 15th month; output up for a 17th month and new orders up at the slowest pace since March, both slower than September; output prices rising at the fastest rate since September 2022; input costs the highest since May; supplier delivery times lengthening the most since August 2022; hiring the fastest since April 2021; backlogs up for an eighth month, steepest since April; export orders up fractionally for the first time since June 2025; survey 9-27 October.

What It Changes

• The flash overstated October, again. The final PMI came in 1.1 points under the 56.0 flash that was also the consensus (TradingEconomics), the same size of cut September took. Late responses pulled growth down both months.
• Several of the flash's best lines did not survive. New orders went from the fastest growth in over four and a half years in the flash to the slowest since March in the final. Hiring went from the fastest since March 2012 to the fastest since April 2021. Both are still strong; neither is what the flash said.
• The inflation side held up, and that is the part the Fed reads. Selling prices are rising at the fastest rate since September 2022, input costs at the fastest since May, and S&P Global's chief business economist says that adds to pressure on the Fed to raise rates further.
• It disagrees with ISM on both counts. ISM's headline rose to 55.5 while this one fell; ISM's Prices Index eased while this survey's price gauges heated up.

Impact

• USD — Slight bullish — the downward revision trims the growth story, but the price detail is what moves hike pricing, and it pointed up.
• The release landed at 09:45, fifteen minutes before ISM, so any reaction to it alone was overtaken by the bigger survey.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish — slower growth in orders with faster pass-through of costs is a margin and rate-path headwind at once.
• NQ is where the supply story lives. S&P Global ties the delivery delays to suppliers struggling to keep up with AI data-centre build-outs, so the constraint sits in the same supply chain as the Nasdaq's largest weights.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — factory-gate inflation at its fastest in more than four years supports the hike pricing that drove Friday's selling, which works against gold through real yields.

Inside The Number

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.9 in October, down from 55.9 in September and 1.1 points below the 56.0 flash published on 23 October, which was also the consensus. It is a 15th straight month above 50, and S&P Global still describes growth as comfortably above trend. But it is a softer month than September's 52-month high, not the new high the flash pointed to.

The revision is the story, and it is a pattern. September's flash of 57.0 became a final of 55.9; October's flash of 56.0 became 54.9. Two months, two cuts of the same size. The final adds responses collected between 23 and 27 October on top of the flash window of 9-22 October, so the late responders were weaker than the early ones both times. The flash's 53-month high no longer exists.

Demand was hit hardest by the revision. The flash had new orders growing at the fastest pace in more than four and a half years. The final has new work rising at the slowest rate since March, still solid, helped by generally stronger market demand and some clients ordering early to lock in prices. Export orders went from the strongest since May 2022 in the flash to a fractional rise, the first since June 2025, with tariffs capping gains. Output rose for a 17th month, also at a slower pace than September.

Prices are where the survey stayed hot. Input cost inflation rose to its highest since May's near four-year high, which S&P Global describes as well above trend. Manufacturers blamed energy, fuel and transportation costs, which then fed through to vendor prices, plus tariffs and higher aluminum and steel. Firms passed it on: output price inflation reached its fastest since September 2022, a month later than the flash's August 2022 comparison but the same message.

Supply is the constraint. Average delivery times for inputs lengthened by the most since August 2022, at what S&P Global calls a historically elevated pace. Vendors were struggling to keep up with demand, especially for products tied to AI data-centre build-outs, while dealing with tariffs and Middle East shipping disruption. Because the delivery index is inverted in the PMI, slower deliveries added to the headline, so the underlying demand-and-output picture is a little softer than 54.9 suggests.

Factories are hiring into the backlog. Backlogs of work rose for an eighth month, the steepest increase since April's near four-year peak, as delivery delays and new orders stacked up against plant capacity. Firms responded by raising headcount at the fastest pace since April 2021. Purchasing rose for a 10th month and stocks of purchases for a seventh, the latter only modestly, as firms bought ahead to secure inputs and current prices.

Confidence firmed. Expectations for output over the next 12 months picked up from September to roughly their long-run trend. Firms cited expansion plans and hopes for stronger demand, against ongoing tariff and global uncertainty.

Against ISM, released 15 minutes later. ISM's Manufacturing PMI rose 1.0 point to 55.5, with production at its best since November 2021, and its Prices Index fell 2.7 points to 75.2. This survey went the other way on both: a lower headline and hotter price gauges. The two use different panels and weights (S&P Global weights new orders at 30%, ISM weights its five components equally), and S&P Global measures output prices, which ISM does not. On the question the Fed cares about, whether factories are passing costs on, only S&P Global asks directly, and its answer is yes, at the fastest pace in more than four years.

The Internals

S&P Global does not publish the sub-index values in the release text, so the table records what the release says about each, against the flash.

Measure · Final Oct · Flash Oct (23 Oct) · September final

Manufacturing PMI · 54.9 · 56.0 · 55.9

PMI vs prior · Lower, softer growth · Higher, 53-month high · 52-month high

Output · Up 17th month, slower · 55.8, slower · Faster than October

New orders · Slowest since March · Fastest in over 4.5 years · Faster than October

New export orders · Fractional rise, first since June 2025 · Strongest since May 2022 · n/a

Employment · Fastest since April 2021 · Fastest since March 2012 · n/a

Backlogs of work · Up 8th month, steepest since April · Largest since May 2022 · n/a

Input prices · Highest since May · Fastest since November 2022 bar September · n/a

Output prices · Fastest since September 2022 · Fastest since August 2022 · n/a

Suppliers' delivery times · Longest since August 2022 · Longest since July 2022 · n/a

Stocks of purchases · Up 7th month, modest · n/a · n/a

Purchasing activity · Up 10th month, marked · n/a · n/a

Future output · Up from September, near trend · n/a · n/a

Flash to final, the last two months:

Month · Flash · Final · Revision

September 2026 · 57.0 · 55.9 · −1.1

October 2026 · 56.0 · 54.9 · −1.1

Against consensus (TradingEconomics) and the other survey:

Release · Actual · Consensus or flash · Prior

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final · 54.9 · 56.0 · 55.9

ISM Manufacturing PMI · 55.5 · 54.6 · 54.5

ISM Prices · 75.2 · 77.0 · 77.9

How the headline is built:

Component · Weight in PMI

New Orders · 30%

Output · 25%

Employment · 20%

Suppliers' Delivery Times (inverted) · 15%

Stocks of Purchases · 10%

What The Firms Actually Said

Clients ordering early. Some panellists reported customers placing orders to lock in prices before further increases, part of what kept new work growing as it slowed.

Costs travelling down the chain. Manufacturers widely reported higher energy, fuel and transport expenses, and said these were the main force pushing up wider vendor prices. Tariffs added to the pressure, and aluminum and steel were again reported higher.

Suppliers that cannot keep up. Vendors were widely described as struggling to meet demand, especially for anything related to AI data-centre build-outs, while also handling tariffs and Middle East disruption to shipping.

The economist's read. Chris Williamson, S&P Global Market Intelligence's chief business economist, described the best growth spell for US factories since early 2022 and the fastest job creation in five and a half years, but called the strain from AI-related demand and supply-chain delays clear growing pains. He said producers have increasingly been able to pass costs on, that factory-gate prices will feed through to consumers in the coming months, and that this keeps inflation well above the Fed's target and adds to pressure for further rate increases.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed the S&P Global final at 09:45 with a 56.0 consensus against a 55.9 prior, and put the session's weight on ISM at 10:00.
• The final printed 54.9, a 1.1-point miss on that consensus, and it pointed the opposite way to ISM on prices: hotter here, softer there. The Open's question was whether prices paid would move December hike odds, and the two surveys gave opposite answers.

What This Sets Up

• Next print: the November flash later this month, then the November final on Tuesday 1 December at 09:45 ET.
• The test is the revision. A third straight flash-to-final cut of about a point would say the flash is running hot in this cycle.
• On prices, a further rise in output price inflation would put factory-gate pass-through at a new post-2022 high; a fall back toward September's pace would bring this survey closer to ISM's softer read.

What Is This?

• What it is: S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI, compiled from monthly questionnaires sent to purchasing managers at about 600 manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size. A flash estimate comes out in the second half of the month; the final adds the late responses and comes out at the start of the next month.
• Why it matters: It is the second big factory survey alongside ISM, with its own panel and a different weighting, and it is the only one of the two that measures the prices manufacturers charge, not just the prices they pay. With the Fed holding at 3.75%-4.00% and two members voting to hike, the selling-price gauge is a direct read on pass-through to consumer inflation.
• How to read it: Each index is the share of firms reporting higher plus half the share reporting no change, seasonally adjusted; above 50 means an increase on the month. The headline weights New Orders 30%, Output 25%, Employment 20%, Suppliers' Delivery Times 15% (inverted, so slower deliveries raise it) and Stocks of Purchases 10%. The flash-to-final revision shows how much the late responses changed the picture.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._