Calendar › Durable goods orders › 2026-10-27
Durable Goods +1.8% vs 1.5% Est on Aircraft — Core Capex Slows to +0.5%
Fundamentals · 2026-10-27
New durable goods orders +1.8% m/m vs 1.5% est to $345.4B, up six of the last seven months, after an August revised to +0.1% from 0.0%; ex-transportation +0.5% vs 0.6% est, August unrevised at +0.3%; ex-defence +2.2%; transportation +4.6% on non-defence aircraft +28.4% to $25.3B, with August aircraft revised to +0.3% from -4.3%; core capital goods orders (non-defence ex-aircraft) +0.5% vs 0.7% est to $88.0B, a fourth straight gain, August unrevised at +1.6%; core capital goods shipments +1.2% to $86.1B; total shipments +0.9%, up nine of the last ten months; unfilled orders +0.8% to $1,623.6B, up 26 of 27 months; inventories +0.3%, up 12 straight months. Next advance report 25 November.
What It Changes
- The headline beat is aircraft again, and this time it went the other way. Non-defence aircraft orders jumped 28.4%, adding about $5.6 billion, so the total beat at 1.8% against 1.5% while everything outside transportation missed narrowly.
- Core capex is still rising, just slower. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% against 0.7%, the fourth straight gain, after August's 1.6% held through revision. Over three months that is about 11% annualized, down from about 17% a month ago.
- Core shipments are the stronger half. They rose 1.2%, about 14% annualized over three months, and September closes the third quarter, so equipment investment should add to Q3 growth.
- For the Fed, it changes nothing for tomorrow. A slight core miss alongside firm shipments is neither a reason to hike on Wednesday nor a dent in a December hike priced at 75-80%.
Impact
- USD — Mixed — the headline beat is aircraft noise and the core line missed slightly, so neither side of the hike case gets new support from this print.
- The Open had a hike tomorrow at about 10% and a December hike at 75-80%; this release does not move either, and consumer confidence at 10:00 carries more weight for the Fed's read.
- The ADP NER Pulse printed at 08:15 and FHFA and Case-Shiller follow at 09:00, so this morning's moves cannot be credited to durable goods alone.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bullish — rising core shipments and a growing backlog are good for factory earnings, but the core-orders miss takes the edge off, and index moves this week are being set by chips, megacap earnings and the Fed.
- YM carries the most direct exposure. Boeing reports before the open today, and aircraft orders, industrial machinery and the defence backlog all sit in the Dow's industrials.
- Gold (GC) — Neutral — no change to the rate path and no surprise in growth large enough to move real yields; the dollar and the FOMC are doing the work for gold this week.
Inside The Number
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose $6.3 billion or 1.8% to $345.4 billion in September, against a 1.5% consensus (TradingEconomics), and are up six of the last seven months. August was revised to +0.1% from a first-reported 0.0%. Census credits transportation equipment, which rose $5.2 billion or 4.6% to $119.8 billion.
The transportation line is aircraft. Non-defence aircraft and parts orders rose 28.4% to $25.3 billion, up about $5.6 billion. That is almost all of the headline gain. August's aircraft figure was also revised from -4.3% to +0.3%, so the give-back that last month's brief described never happened on the revised data. Motor vehicles and parts rose 0.3%, and defence aircraft 5.7%. Aircraft orders swing on a handful of large contracts, which is why the headline says little about the rest of manufacturing.
Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5% to $225.6 billion, against a 0.6% consensus. August stayed at +0.3%. By industry:
- Machinery +1.2% to $46.0 billion, a fourth straight rise.
- Computers and electronic products +0.8% to $31.3 billion, with computers +3.9% and communications equipment -1.3%.
- Primary metals +0.5% to $33.0 billion, a fourth straight gain.
- Fabricated metal products +0.4% to $45.2 billion, recovering part of August's 1.4% drop.
- Electrical equipment, appliances and components -0.3% to $18.9 billion.
- All other durables flat at $51.3 billion.
Core capital goods orders slowed, but did not reverse. Non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.5%, $0.4 billion, to $88.0 billion, against a 0.7% consensus. August held at +1.6% and July at +0.6%, so this is the fourth straight monthly gain after June's +1.7%. Over three months that is roughly 11% annualized, against about 17% a month ago (both approximations, compounding Census's rounded monthly rates). Not seasonally adjusted, September core orders were 13.7% above September 2025, and year to date they are up 10.9%.
Core shipments did better than orders. Core capital goods shipments rose 1.2% to $86.1 billion, after +0.6% in August and +1.4% in July, about 14% annualized over the quarter on the same rounded basis. Those shipments feed the equipment line of business investment in GDP, and September is the last month of the third quarter. Core orders still run ahead of shipments, $88.0 billion against $86.1 billion, so more shipments are booked.
Shipments and the backlog are both rising. Total durable goods shipments rose 0.9% to $336.8 billion, after August's 0.2% dip, up nine of the last ten months. Unfilled orders rose $13.6 billion or 0.8% to $1,623.6 billion, up 26 of the last 27 months, with transportation up 13 of the last 14. Inventories rose 0.3% to $610.0 billion, up 12 consecutive months. Not seasonally adjusted, unfilled orders are 9.0% above a year ago and inventories 3.4% above: the backlog is still growing more than twice as fast as stock.
The narrative point: last month's question was whether core capex could hold above 1%. It did not, but it kept rising, and the shipments that turn orders into GDP accelerated. Domestic equipment demand is still growing; it is not growing as fast as August suggested. None of this is inflation-adjusted, so with inflation above 3%, part of the 13.7% year-over-year gain in core orders is price rather than volume.
The Internals
New orders, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars:
Category · September · August revised · September change · August change · Consensus
Durable goods, total · 345.4 · 339.1 · +1.8% · +0.1% · +1.5%
Excluding transportation · 225.6 · 224.5 · +0.5% · +0.3% · +0.6%
Excluding defence · 321.1 · 314.2 · +2.2% · +0.3% · n/a
Core capital goods (non-defence ex-aircraft) · 88.0 · 87.6 · +0.5% · +1.6% · +0.7%
Non-defence capital goods · 107.8 · 101.5 · +6.2% · +2.1% · n/a
Defence capital goods · 20.8 · 21.2 · -1.8% · -3.2% · n/a
Capital goods, total · 128.6 · 122.7 · +4.8% · +1.2% · n/a
August, first reported against revised:
Series · First reported · Revised
Durable goods orders · 0.0% · +0.1%
Excluding transportation · +0.3% · +0.3%
Excluding defence · +0.1% · +0.3%
Core capital goods orders · +1.6% · +1.6%
Non-defence aircraft orders · -4.3% · +0.3%
Non-defence capital goods orders · +1.2% · +2.1%
New orders by industry, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars:
Industry · September · Change · August change · July change
Primary metals · 33.0 · +0.5% · +1.9% · +2.1%
Fabricated metal products · 45.2 · +0.4% · -1.4% · +0.4%
Machinery · 46.0 · +1.2% · +1.0% · +1.5%
Computers and electronic products · 31.3 · +0.8% · +0.5% · -0.6%
Computers and related products · 3.1 · +3.9% · +2.3% · -0.6%
Communications equipment · 5.1 · -1.3% · -1.3% · +1.9%
Electrical equipment and appliances · 18.9 · -0.3% · +0.5% · 0.0%
Transportation equipment · 119.8 · +4.6% · -0.3% · +1.2%
Motor vehicles and parts · 73.4 · +0.3% · -0.8% · +0.8%
Non-defence aircraft and parts · 25.3 · +28.4% · +0.3% · +12.0%
Defence aircraft and parts · 6.2 · +5.7% · +2.3% · -13.0%
All other durable goods · 51.3 · 0.0% · +0.1% · +0.5%
Shipments, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars:
Category · September · Change · August change · July change
Durable goods, total · 336.8 · +0.9% · -0.2% · +0.9%
Excluding transportation · 225.7 · +0.7% · +0.5% · +0.8%
Transportation equipment · 111.1 · +1.4% · -1.7% · +1.1%
Non-defence aircraft and parts · 16.7 · +3.4% · -9.0% · +0.5%
Core capital goods · 86.1 · +1.2% · +0.6% · +1.4%
Non-defence capital goods · 97.1 · +1.7% · -1.3% · +1.4%
Backlog and stock, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars:
Measure · September · Change · Streak · vs year ago, not adjusted
Unfilled orders, total · 1,623.6 · +0.8% · Up 26 of 27 months · +9.0%
Unfilled orders, transportation · 1,019.0 · +0.9% · Up 13 of 14 months · +9.6%
Unfilled orders, non-defence aircraft · 731.6 · +1.2% · n/a · +10.4%
Unfilled orders, core capital goods · 318.8 · +0.6% · n/a · +6.1%
Unfilled orders, motor vehicles · 40.3 · -0.4% · n/a · 0.0%
Inventories, total · 610.0 · +0.3% · Up 12 straight months · +3.4%
Inventories, transportation · 193.2 · +0.3% · Up 11 of 12 months · +3.8%
Year to date, not seasonally adjusted, against the same months of 2025:
Series · 2026 year to date · Change
Durable goods orders · $3,007.2B · +8.0%
Excluding transportation · $1,977.9B · +9.7%
Core capital goods orders · $758.3B · +10.9%
Core capital goods shipments · $740.5B · +8.8%
Non-defence aircraft orders · $192.2B · -18.0%
Defence capital goods orders · $182.6B · +35.0%
Computers and related products orders · $25.8B · +20.3%
Communications equipment orders · $43.3B · +34.3%
Primary metals orders · $280.4B · +16.0%
Where The Orders Came From
Aircraft and defence still pull in opposite directions on the year. Non-defence aircraft orders are 18.0% below last year to date, narrowing from 22.1% a month ago after September's jump. Defence capital goods orders are 35.0% above, though they have now fallen three months running (-6.4%, -3.2%, -1.8%). The aircraft backlog keeps growing regardless: unfilled non-defence aircraft orders rose 1.2% to $731.6 billion, 10.4% above a year ago.
Machinery is the steadiest line in the release. Orders rose for a fourth straight month and are 13.4% above last year to date, with unfilled machinery orders 8.3% higher on the year. That is the broadest read on business equipment demand outside the AI-specific lines.
The AI-adjacent lines split. Computers and related products orders rose 3.9% and are up 20.3% year to date. Communications equipment fell 1.3% for a second month but is still up 34.3% on the year. Together they are about $8.2 billion a month, small against an $88 billion core total, but growing at two to three times the pace of the rest of the factory sector. Semiconductor orders are excluded from Census's order data, so the most direct AI line is not in this release.
The metals chain keeps building. Primary metals orders rose for a fourth month and are up 16.0% year to date, with unfilled orders up 11.8% on the year. That fits the tariff-protected steel and aluminum pricing firms have cited, though Census does not split price from volume.
Autos are the flat spot. Motor vehicles and parts orders rose only 0.3% after falling 0.8% in August, and the auto backlog is unchanged from a year ago, the weakest backlog of any major line in the release.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open tabled durable goods at 1.5% against a 0.0% prior, ex-transport at 0.6% against 0.3%, and core capital goods at 0.7% against 1.6%, and said "the aircraft swing dominates" the headline while core capital goods orders are "the business-investment read".
- Both held. The headline beat on a 28.4% aircraft jump, and the business-investment read came in a little soft at 0.5%. The Open also put consumer confidence at 10:00 as the release more likely to move anything, and this print gave it no reason to be wrong.
What This Sets Up
- Full report — Tuesday 3 November, 10:00 ET, with revised durables and the nondurable goods data; September's core-capex figure can move again there.
- Next advance report — Wednesday 25 November, 08:30 ET, covering October.
- Confirms a slowdown in core capex: an October gain below 0.5%, or a downward revision to September, which would take the three-month pace into single digits.
- Breaks it: a revision up and an October gain back above 1%, which would make September a pause in a double-digit run.
- Watch aircraft. After August's revision to +0.3% and September's +28.4%, a give-back in October is likely to swing the headline negative without saying anything about the rest of manufacturing.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Census Bureau's advance report on durable goods manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders, from the M3 survey of about 4,700 reporting units at roughly 3,000 companies. Durable goods are items meant to last three years or more. New orders are booked when a customer commits, not when the product ships, so they lead factory output. Figures are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted, and semiconductor orders are excluded. Release CB 26-169, covering September 2026.
- Why it matters: It carries the cleanest monthly read on business investment: core capital goods orders, meaning non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft. Core capital goods shipments feed the equipment line of GDP directly. With AI-related equipment spending the main growth story this year, this is the series that shows whether that spending is reaching US factories.
- How to read it: Skip the headline and go to core capex. The total swings on aircraft, where a few large orders can move billions in a month; this month they added about $5.6 billion. Watch revisions: August's aircraft figure moved from -4.3% to +0.3%, and the full report a week later can move September again. Census publishes no confidence intervals, because the panel is not a probability sample, so small monthly changes carry unknown error. And the data are nominal: a gain partly reflects higher prices, not only more goods.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._