Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-02

Oil drops 4.6% on Doha talks. NQ bounces 0.8%

Rundown · 2026-11-02

The weekend took the risk premium out of crude and put a bid under tech. WTI is −4.55% against Friday's settle, back below $100, as Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks in Doha on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ held December output steady. The Sunday gap was small and has not filled: at the 18:00 reopen ES opened +0.16%, NQ +0.19%, YM +0.16% and RTY +0.29% above Friday's settles, and none of the four has traded back to its settle since. They have kept rising: ES +0.53%, NQ +0.83%, YM +0.58%, RTY +0.76%, all in the upper part of their overnight ranges. That follows Friday's Nasdaq −2.86%, when Intel's record −28.6% and a −7% day for semiconductors spread the AI selloff to every index. The dollar is softer (DXY −0.24%), led by the euro. Gold is +0.41% after Friday's −3.29% to a one-year low. The 10-year closed Friday at 4.94% (US Treasury), −4bp. Quotes are as of about 06:35 ET. Nothing prints at 08:30; ISM manufacturing at 10:00 is the session's only tier-one release, and Apple reports after the close, the night before Tuesday's midterm elections.

Overnight

• Against Friday's settles, about 06:35 ET: ES +0.53% · NQ +0.83% · YM +0.58% · RTY +0.76%. NQ leads, which is the reverse of Friday's order of losses.
• The gap, as reference only. Globex reopened Sunday at 18:00 ET with every index slightly above Friday's settle: ES +0.16%, NQ +0.19%, YM +0.16%, RTY +0.29%. Each overnight low sits above Friday's settle (ES 0.15% above, NQ 0.19%, YM 0.10%, RTY 0.22%), so none of the gaps has filled. The catalyst was the weekend: no new military escalation in the Gulf, a third day of Doha talks, and President Trump saying on Sunday that the US would wrap up the Iran conflict soon.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.45% (0.15% to 0.59% above its settle) and sits in the top fifth. NQ has ranged 0.86% (0.19% to 1.04% above) and sits in the upper quarter. YM has ranged 0.52% (0.10% to 0.62% above) and sits at the high. RTY has ranged 0.67% (0.22% to 0.89% above) and sits in the top fifth.
• Asia was mixed, and China rallied on support talk. Nikkei −0.33%, having traded higher earlier in the session; Japan's manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low. Hang Seng +0.42%. Kospi about +2.8% after last week's crash. Shanghai rose about 1.2% at midday on reports that the PBOC and regulators would meet today on a relending programme for share buybacks, even though China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 from 50.1 (NBS), a miss.
• Europe is flat. STOXX 600 +0.07%, DAX +0.24%, FTSE 100 +0.01%. Healthcare is the weak sector, and energy names are lower with crude. German September retail sales fell 2.0% m/m against a 0.4% rise expected.
• US clocks fell back on Sunday. ET is now five hours behind London again, so Europe's cash session opened at 03:00 ET as usual for the winter.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY −0.24%. Two weekend moves took haven demand out of the dollar: the Iran diplomacy and Sunday's tech bounce. Positioning matters too. ING (via FXStreet) expects traders to trim long-dollar positions before Tuesday's midterms and puts prediction-market odds of a Democratic sweep at about 68%. CME FedWatch still prices about a 73% chance of a December hike (as quoted Monday morning). We could not get a same-day prediction-market reading to set against it.
• 6E: EUR/USD +0.44%, the strongest major. It is carrying the dollar's move, and German data is not the reason: retail sales fell 2.0% m/m. This is the weaker dollar and lower oil, which eases the euro area's energy bill.
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.20%, a fourth day of gains if it holds. The Bank of England decides on Thursday.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.19%, a softer yen. Risk appetite has taken away the haven bid. Finance Minister Katayama repeated that the US-Japan FX statement stands and that Tokyo would act against disorderly moves.
• 6C: USD/CAD 0.00%. Two forces cancel out: the softer US dollar helps the loonie, and crude down 4.6% hurts it. President Trump said a US-Canada trade deal exists "in concept".
• 6A: AUD/USD −0.31%, the weakest major. The RBA decides at 22:30 ET tonight (14:30 Tuesday in Sydney). The cash rate is 4.60% (RBA), and 31 of 32 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hike to 4.85%. With the hike close to fully priced, the Aussie is trading China's weak official PMI and Australia's manufacturing PMI at 49.6, a second month in contraction.

Energy & Metals

• CL: +2.08% Friday, −4.55% overnight. WTI opened Sunday 1.66% below Friday's settle and has kept falling. It has ranged 3.35% overnight, entirely below the settle (1.32% to 4.67% below), and sits at the low of that range. Brent is −4.40% against its front-month settle.
• The mechanism. Friday priced Houthi strike claims against Saudi sites. The weekend priced diplomacy. Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks on a plan to reopen Hormuz within two days, with Iran asking for sanctions relief, restored oil waivers and a smaller US military presence. Washington has not responded publicly. OPEC+ held its December targets for a third month on Sunday (1 November). The risk has not gone away: at least 10 maritime incidents have been reported around the Gulf and Hormuz since 31 October, including a tanker hit by two projectiles off Saudi Arabia, and Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly ordered commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation. Crude is pricing talks, not a reopened strait.
• GC: −3.29% Friday, +0.41% overnight. Friday's drop took December gold to a one-year low, below $4,000. Overnight it has ranged 1.00% (0.25% below to 0.75% above the settle) and sits in the upper half.
• Why gold fell, and why it has steadied. Friday's drop came as Treasury yields fell, which normally supports gold, so it was not a rates move. It was forced selling, with margin calls after the tech rout, made worse by December hike pricing tied to energy inflation. Silver fell 5.9%. Overnight, with equities bouncing and the dollar softer, the selling has stopped. It has not reversed.

Where We Left Off

• Friday's RTH: S&P 500 −1.82%, Dow −1.09%, Nasdaq Composite −2.86%, Russell 2000 −1.66% (AP; Investrade matches all four). It was the Nasdaq's worst day since 5 June. For the week, the Russell rose 1.3% while the Nasdaq fell 2.0%, the S&P 0.6% and the Dow 0.9%.
• Treasury yields Friday: 10-year 4.94% (−4bp), 2-year 4.56% (−5bp), 30-year 5.31% (−1bp) (US Treasury, 30 October). The 10-year has fallen 11bp in two sessions, from 5.05% on Wednesday.
• The selling broadened. Technology fell nearly 5% and semiconductors more than 7%. Unlike Thursday, the Dow and the Russell fell with it. Energy was the exception: Chevron rose 1.75% and Exxon 2.16% after earnings beats, with crude up 2%.
• What carries over: whether Friday was capitulation or a start. On Thursday, selling stayed inside megacap tech. On Friday it reached every index. Sunday's bounce has NQ leading. Whether semiconductors hold that bounce after 09:30 is the clearest test of whether the rotation has run its course.

Yesterday's Data

• Employment cost index +0.8% in Q3: in line, but wages slowed to 0.7% and real private pay fell.
• Chicago PMI 55.3 vs 56.1 expected: a miss on faster deliveries, while prices paid hit their highest since 2021.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

09:45 · S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, Oct · 56.0 · 55.9 · USD · ES

10:00 · ISM manufacturing PMI, Oct · 54.6 · 54.5 · USD · ES/NQ · GC

10:00 · ISM manufacturing prices, Oct · 77.0 · 77.9 · USD · GC · rates

10:00 · Construction spending, Sep m/m · 0.4% · 0.9% · USD

11:15 · Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

11:30 · 3- and 6-month bill auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

14:00 · Fed senior loan officer survey · n/a · n/a · USD · financials

15:00 · Treasury refunding financing estimates · n/a · n/a · rates · USD

After close · Apple and Palantir earnings · n/a · n/a · NQ · ES

22:30 · RBA rate decision · 4.85% · 4.60% · 6A

Consensus: TradingEconomics; the RBA expectation is from a Reuters poll of economists. Release times from TradingEconomics and the issuing agencies. There is nothing at 08:30: Monday has no fixed weekly US release, and two calendars agree the slot is empty. This week: midterm elections and JOLTS on Tuesday; ADP, ISM services and the Treasury refunding announcement on Wednesday; the Bank of England and jobless claims on Thursday; October payrolls on Friday (65K consensus, TradingEconomics).

ISM at 10:00 is the only print likely to move anything. The prices component matters more than the headline. At 77.9, it is the part of the report that feeds the December hike pricing that weighed on gold Friday. A softer prices reading would ease that; a higher one would add to it. The refunding estimates at 15:00 are background for the long end ahead of Wednesday's announcement.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Friday's moves close to close; pre-market as of about 06:43 ET.

• NVDA −4.22% Friday, +1.36% pre-market. It had no news of its own. As the largest weight in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, and a Dow member, it carried the semiconductor selloff into all three indices. It is leading the pre-market bounce.
• AAPL −1.23% Friday, −0.35% pre-market. Reports after the close today. Analysts expect fourth-quarter EPS of about $1.99. It is a top-three weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 and a Dow member, so tonight's numbers set NQ's tone for the overnight session that runs into the midterm results.
• AVGO −5.48% Friday, +1.09% pre-market. A top-ten S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight, it took the biggest share of the semiconductor index's 7% drop after NVDA.
• INTC −28.58% Friday, −0.29% pre-market. That was Intel's worst day on record, after weak fourth-quarter guidance and a cash-burn warning. It is in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 but not the Dow, and its weight is small, so its 28.6% fall did less index damage than NVDA's 4%.
• GS −3.58% and CAT −3.81% Friday; +1.27% and +1.67% pre-market. They are two of the highest-priced Dow members, so in a price-weighted index they were among the largest drags behind YM's 1.1% loss. That is why the Dow did not hold up Friday the way it did Thursday.
• REGN +13.33% Friday, flat pre-market, after a third-quarter beat. It was one of the few large gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Friday's calls. We asked whether the YM-NQ split would hold through the open. It did not: the Dow fell 1.09% as Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar joined the selling. We asked whether gold's liquidation would stop. It deepened: gold fell 3.29% to a one-year low. We asked whether the Saudi claims would hold crude up. They did on Friday (WTI +2.08%), then the weekend's diplomacy took the premium back out.
• Whether the gap fills. Every index is still above Friday's settle. A move back to it would mean the weekend bounce has been sold.
• Whether semiconductors lead after 09:30. NVDA and AVGO are higher pre-market. If they give that back in the cash session, Friday's broad selling has not run its course.
• Whether crude's drop holds once Washington responds. Overnight crude is pricing talks. A US rejection of Iran's terms or a fresh strike in the Gulf would put the premium back.
• Whether ISM prices paid moves the December hike odds. A high reading would reprice rates, and with them gold.

The Bottom Line

The weekend reversed Friday's two big moves in commodities and indices. Crude is down 4.6% on Doha talks and Nasdaq futures are up 0.8%, with a small Sunday gap still unfilled. The dollar is softer, gold has steadied after its liquidation, and the 10-year finished Friday at 4.94% after an 11bp fall over two sessions. With nothing at 08:30, ISM at 10:00 is the only real data. The bigger risks come after the cash close: Apple's results, the RBA at 22:30, and the midterms on Tuesday. Today's session is a test of whether the semiconductor bounce holds before those land.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._