Calendar › S&P Global flash US PMI › 2026-10-23
Flash PMIs: Composite 57.6 in Line — Selling Prices Rise Fastest Since August 2022
Fundamentals · 2026-10-23
The S&P Global flash composite output index eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4, exactly in line with a 57.6 consensus (TradingEconomics), a 2-month low but still the second-strongest reading since March 2022. Services business activity 57.9 against 58.0 expected, from 58.8. Manufacturing PMI 56.0 against 55.5 expected, from 55.9, a 53-month high. Manufacturing output 55.8 from 56.2. New orders rose at the fastest pace in over four and a half years; export orders the strongest since May 2022; backlogs the largest since May 2022; factory hiring the fastest since March 2012. Selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022, input costs the fastest since November 2022 bar September, and delivery times lengthened the most since July 2022. September's flash manufacturing PMI of 57.0 was revised down to 55.9 in the final data. Survey window 9-22 October.
What It Changes
- The growth read did not change; the price read got worse. The composite landed exactly on consensus and services missed by 0.1. Activity is still running near its best in five years. What moved is pricing: firms are passing costs on at the fastest pace in more than four years.
- That lands five days before the 28 October FOMC decision. S&P says the price data point to consumer inflation rising further above the Fed's target in coming months. With hiring still strong, nothing in this survey argues for the Fed to step back.
- It does not back Thursday's growth scare. Treasuries rallied hard on Thursday on fears of slower growth. A composite at 57.6 with new orders accelerating is not a slowing economy, though it is not the beat that would say the bond move overshot either.
- The manufacturing headline needs the usual caution. It rose to a 53-month high, but slower supplier deliveries add to the PMI, and delivery times lengthened the most since July 2022. And September's flash overstated the final by 1.1 points.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — the US-eurozone growth gap widened again and US prices are accelerating, both pointing the same way for the dollar.
- DXY −0.02% from 09:44 to 09:54 ET, inside a 0.07% range, and +0.10% on the day. A near-consensus composite gave the dollar no new reason to move in the release window.
- The eurozone flash composite fell to 51.9 this morning (S&P Global), so the US runs 5.7 points ahead. 6E is the pair where that gap is live; the euro was already the weak side before the US data.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — a near-consensus composite, a manufacturing beat and hotter prices largely offset each other.
- From 09:44 to 09:54 ET: ES +0.02%, NQ +0.05%, YM +0.05%, RTY +0.09%, none moving more than 0.16% either way. On the day at 09:54 ET: ES −0.45%, NQ −0.01%, YM −1.05% and RTY −0.72%. The day's YM weakness was in place before 09:45.
- RTY has the most to lose from the price data. Small caps are the domestic-demand trade the survey describes, and also the most sensitive to higher rates; the two cancelled in the window.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — faster selling-price inflation pushes rate expectations the wrong way for gold. GC +0.02% from 09:44 to 09:54 ET and −0.53% on the day, so the survey added nothing to a decline already under way.
Inside The Number
The flash composite output index fell 0.8 points to 57.6 from September's 58.4, matching the 57.6 consensus. It is a 2-month low, but S&P puts it as the second-sharpest rise in activity since March 2022. Services business activity fell 0.9 points to 57.9 from 58.8, against 58.0 expected. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.1 to 56.0 from 55.9, against 55.5 expected, its best since May 2022. Manufacturing output slipped to 55.8 from 56.2.
Read the scale first. S&P's own mapping of the composite onto official output puts October at roughly 5% annualized growth, after about 4% for the third quarter. Excluding the post-COVID reopening, S&P describes recent months as the best growth spell for US businesses since early 2015. October cooled a little from September, but from a five-year high.
Demand accelerated even as output eased. New orders across both sectors rose at the fastest pace in over four and a half years, up from September. The mix shifted: factory order growth slowed, while services new business rose at the strongest pace since March 2022. S&P says domestic demand still did most of the work, helped partly by precautionary stock building, which is customers buying ahead of shortages and price rises, not only to meet end demand.
Exports came back. Export sales rose at the strongest rate since May 2022. Goods export orders rose for the first time since June 2025, and services exports had their largest rise since July 2023.
Capacity is stretched. Backlogs of uncompleted work rose at the fastest rate since May 2022, in both sectors. S&P treats backlogs as its main capacity-use gauge. Firms responded by hiring: employment rose at the fastest pace since June 2022, except for September. Manufacturing payrolls grew at the fastest rate since March 2012. Services hiring slowed from September but was still the third-largest gain in over four years.
Now the hidden number: prices. Selling prices across goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022. It was broad: services charges rose at the steepest pace since August 2022, and manufacturers' selling prices at the fastest since July 2022, with factory price inflation accelerating markedly. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since November 2022, excluding only September, with the surge strongest in manufacturing. Firms named oil-based inputs, energy, fuel and freight, and also steel, aluminum and copper, often because of tariffs or shortages. Service providers added higher wages, utilities and insurance.
Why firms can pass costs on now. Chris Williamson ties it together: backlogs are growing and supply bottlenecks have intensified, which makes it easier for companies to raise prices. He says the result is the sharpest rise in selling prices in over four years, at a pace that points to consumer inflation rising "further above the Fed's target in the coming months."
The manufacturing PMI flatters itself again. The PMI is a weighted average of new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers' delivery times (15%) and stocks of purchases (10%), and the delivery-times index is inverted, so slower deliveries raise the PMI. Delivery times lengthened to the greatest degree since July 2022, amid material shortages, low stocks, overloaded suppliers and shipping delays. Input inventories rose at the fastest rate in four months, partly stock building against those delays. Of the five components, new orders and output growth slowed, while employment and stocks of purchases accelerated, and delivery times kept adding to the index from their longest in over four years. So the 53-month high is partly supply strain scored as strength.
The September flash was revised hard. Last month's flash manufacturing PMI of 57.0 became 55.9 in the final data, a 1.1-point cut. S&P says the average gap between flash and final for this index is 0.0, with an average absolute gap of 0.3, so September's revision was more than three times the usual size. Manufacturing output was cut to 56.2 from 56.7. Services and the composite barely moved: services went to 58.8 from 58.7, and the composite stayed at 58.4. It is a reason to hold October's 56.0 loosely until the final on 2 November.
Confidence cooled in services and rose in manufacturing. Output expectations for the next 12 months fell from September but were still the second-highest of the year. Manufacturers turned markedly more upbeat, roughly back at their long-run average. Service providers stayed well below trend, citing the cost of living, higher borrowing costs and political uncertainty.
The Internals
The headline indexes, October flash against September final:
Index · October flash · September final · Change · Consensus · Read
Composite output · 57.6 · 58.4 · −0.8 · 57.6 · In line; 2-month low; 2nd-highest since March 2022
Services business activity · 57.9 · 58.8 · −0.9 · 58.0 · 0.1 below est; 2-month low
Manufacturing PMI · 56.0 · 55.9 · +0.1 · 55.5 · 0.5 above est; highest since May 2022
Manufacturing output · 55.8 · 56.2 · −0.4 · n/a · 2-month low
How September's flash compared with its final:
Index · September flash · September final · Revision · Average absolute revision
Composite output · 58.4 · 58.4 · 0.0 · 0.4
Services business activity · 58.7 · 58.8 · +0.1 · 0.4
Manufacturing PMI · 57.0 · 55.9 · −1.1 · 0.3
Manufacturing output · 56.7 · 56.2 · −0.5 · n/a
The sub-indexes S&P describes but does not publish as numbers in the flash release:
Measure · October direction · Comparison
New orders, both sectors · Faster · Fastest in over 4.5 years
Manufacturing new orders · Slower · Still elevated
Services new business · Faster · Strongest since March 2022
Export sales, both sectors · Faster · Strongest since May 2022
Goods export orders · Rose · First rise since June 2025
Services exports · Faster · Largest rise since July 2023
Backlogs of work · Faster · Largest since May 2022
Employment, both sectors · Slower than September · Fastest since June 2022 excluding September
Manufacturing employment · Faster · Fastest since March 2012
Services employment · Slower · 3rd-largest gain in over 4 years
Input costs, both sectors · Slower than September · Fastest since November 2022 excluding September
Selling prices, both sectors · Faster · Sharpest since August 2022
Services prices charged · Faster · Steepest since August 2022
Manufacturing selling prices · Faster · Fastest since July 2022
Suppliers' delivery times · Longer · Longest since July 2022
Stocks of purchases, manufacturing · Faster · Fastest in 4 months
Output expectations, 12 months · Lower · 2nd-highest of 2026
What sits inside the manufacturing PMI and which way each part moved against September, from S&P's descriptions:
Component · Weight · October · Effect on the PMI
New orders · 30% · Growth slowed, still elevated · Down
Output · 25% · 55.8 from 56.2 · Down
Employment · 20% · Fastest since March 2012 · Up
Suppliers' delivery times, inverted · 15% · Longest since July 2022 · Adds; change from September not stated
Stocks of purchases · 10% · Fastest in 4 months · Up
The US against this morning's eurozone flash:
Composite output · October · September · Change
United States · 57.6 · 58.4 · −0.8
Eurozone · 51.9 · 53.1 · −1.2
Gap, US minus eurozone · 5.7 · 5.3 · Widened 0.4
What The Firms Actually Said
- Cost drivers named by respondents: oil-based inputs, energy, fuel and freight rates, plus steel, aluminum and copper, often because of tariffs or shortages.
- Supply problems named: material shortages, low stock levels, overloaded suppliers, labour shortages, rising back orders, and shipping or import delays.
- Service providers' extra costs: higher wage rates, utility bills and insurance.
- Why demand is up: mainly domestic, with some customers building stocks as a precaution; export orders added for the first time in over a year in goods.
- Why manufacturers are more confident: signs of continuing demand growth and economic resilience.
- Why service providers are less confident: the cost of living, higher borrowing costs and political uncertainty kept sentiment well below its long-run trend.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open put the fulcrum on the 09:45-10:00 window and listed consensus at 55.5 manufacturing, 58.0 services and 57.6 composite — The Open.
- It set two cases: a services miss like the eurozone's would support Thursday's growth scare in bonds, and a beat would say the bond move overshot. Services came in 0.1 below and the composite exactly on consensus, so neither case resolved, and index futures barely moved in the window. The price data, which The Open did not frame, is the new information.
What This Sets Up
- Final October data: Monday, 2 November, for manufacturing, and Wednesday, 4 November, for services and the composite (S&P Global). Both land after the 28 October FOMC decision.
- The read to confirm or break is whether the manufacturing PMI holds 56.0. After September's 1.1-point cut, a final near 55.5 or below would say the flash again overstated factory strength.
- Watch selling prices in the final. A confirmation of the fastest pace since August 2022 would be the survey's strongest inflation signal into the November data.
- Watch services new business. It is the one demand line that accelerated into October; if it holds in the final, the services slowdown in activity is a pause, not a turn.
What Is This?
- What it is: S&P Global's flash US PMI, released in the second half of each month at 9:45am ET, about ten days before the final data. It surveys around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers in the second half of the month, and the flash uses roughly 80-90% of responses. The composite output index combines manufacturing output and services business activity. The manufacturing PMI is a separate weighted average of five factory indexes.
- Why it matters: It is the earliest read on US activity, hiring and prices each month, landing before the official data. With the Fed focused on inflation and an FOMC on 27-28 October, the price indexes matter as much as the activity numbers.
- How to read it: Every index is a diffusion index: above 50 means more firms reported an increase than a decrease, and the distance from 50 shows how broad the change is. The composite and services index measure activity directly; the manufacturing PMI includes suppliers' delivery times inverted, so supply delays can lift it. Compare the flash with consensus for the surprise, and remember the final can differ: on average by 0.3-0.4 points, but by 1.1 points for manufacturing last month.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._