Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-27

Anthropic lifts chips. Euro and gold give way

Rundown · 2026-10-27

Monday was a chip day, and the overnight session has added almost nothing. Anthropic's public IPO filing lifted semiconductors: the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.09%, the S&P 500 0.70%, the Russell 2000 0.38% and the Dow 0.28%. Index futures are flat against Monday's settles: ES −0.06%, NQ −0.07%, YM +0.02%, RTY −0.16%. NQ has still ranged 1.02% overnight, round-tripping half a percent either side of its settle. The moves are in the other priority instruments. EUR/USD is −0.25% after French consumer confidence fell to its lowest since 2013, and that is carrying the dollar about 0.2% higher. Gold is −0.73%, giving back most of Monday's +0.76%, and is back near $4,000. WTI is +0.67% after −1.46% Monday. The 10-year closed Monday at 5.00% (US Treasury), unchanged, and is −1.5bp overnight. Quotes are as of about 06:40 ET; nothing on the US calendar has printed. Today is day one of the FOMC meeting and Israel's general election. Durable goods at 08:30 and consumer confidence at 10:00 are the data; Coca-Cola and Boeing report before the open.

Overnight

• Against Monday's settles, about 06:30 ET: ES −0.06% · NQ −0.07% · YM +0.02% · RTY −0.16%. Volume is light: ES has traded about 13% of its 65-day average volume so far, NQ about 19%.
• Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has ranged 0.41% and sits in the lower third. NQ has ranged 1.02%, from 0.52% above its settle to 0.51% below, and sits just below mid-range. NQ futures were about 0.4% lower before the European open and have since recovered. YM has ranged 0.49% and sits just below mid-range. RTY has ranged 0.45% and sits in the lower quarter. As on Monday, NQ's range is about two and a half times ES's: tech is where the overnight volatility is.
• Asia split on chips. Nikkei +1.73%, following Monday's US chip rally. China went the other way: Shanghai −1.33% and Hang Seng −0.73%, with Chinese semiconductor and AI stocks falling sharply. ASX 200 +0.46%.
• Europe is lower and London leads the losses. FTSE 100 −0.93%, CAC 40 −0.23%, STOXX 600 −0.26%, DAX −0.04%. HSBC was reported down about 6% after third-quarter results missed estimates, which accounts for much of the FTSE's underperformance. Coverage describes caution ahead of this week's central banks and megacap earnings.
• What happened while the US was closed. Israel votes today, the first general election since 7 October 2023. Polls have shown Netanyahu's coalition short of a majority, with Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party level with Likud. Coverage frames the vote as a test of how the war with Iran is conducted. Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian leaders in Tehran, and Qatar is also engaged. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Riyadh airport were reported; these keep supply risk in crude even as fears of an imminent US strike fade.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY about +0.2%. Over five days the index is +0.46%, and this morning the euro is doing the work. The rate side is not driving it: the 2-year is −0.5bp overnight and the 10-year −1.5bp.
• 6E: EUR/USD −0.25%, the pair carrying the dollar. French consumer confidence fell to its lowest since 2013 on fiscal worries, and the ECB's bank lending survey showed weaker loan demand and tighter credit, which coverage reads as making a December ECB hike harder to justify. The ECB decides Thursday. The euro has fallen 0.83% over five days.
• 6B: GBP/USD −0.16%. Sterling is softer with the dollar, and the FTSE is the weakest major index in Europe.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.11%. Japan's finance minister Katayama warned of decisive action on the yen, which keeps intervention risk in play. The BoJ decides Friday.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.21%, the one major gaining on the dollar, with copper up about 0.8% overnight and the Nikkei higher.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.01%. Flat, with WTI up. The Bank of Canada and the Fed both decide Wednesday; tomorrow is the 6C day.
• Fed odds. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed). The FOMC meeting starts today; the decision is Wednesday at 14:00 ET. Futures were reported to imply about 10% odds of a hike this week (FXStreet, 26 October). For December, Kalshi shows 75% for a 25bp hike this morning, and CME FedWatch was reported at 79.7% on 26 October. Read December as a 75-80% range.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −1.46% Monday, +0.67% overnight. WTI has ranged 2.18% overnight and sits in the top fifth of that range. Its overnight low was 1.14% below Monday's settle and its high 1.04% above.
• Brent: −0.78% Monday, about +0.5% overnight.
• The catalyst is two-sided. Monday's fall was the weekend move carried forward: no US strike on Iran, and mediation continuing in Tehran. Overnight, the reported Houthi attacks on the East-West pipeline, the route Saudi crude uses to bypass Hormuz, have put some premium back. The mechanism: the strike risk is fading while the pipeline risk is not, and the pipeline risk is about barrels that can physically reach market. API inventories at 16:30 are the only scheduled oil data today.
• GC: +0.76% Monday, −0.73% overnight. Gold has ranged 0.92% overnight and sits in the lower fifth; its overnight high was at Monday's settle. It is back near $4,000.
• Why gold is offered into the open. Not yields: the 10-year is lower overnight, which would normally help gold. The firmer dollar and the run-up to Wednesday's FOMC, with a December hike priced at 75-80%, are the inputs. Silver is −2.07%, falling almost three times as hard as gold.

Where We Left Off

• Monday's RTH: S&P 500 +0.70%, Dow +0.28%, Nasdaq Composite +0.82%, Russell 2000 +0.38% (AP; Investrade and MarketWatch match all four). The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.09%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82%.
• Treasury yields Monday: 10-year 5.00% (unchanged), 2-year 4.68% (−1bp), 30-year 5.31% (−2bp) (US Treasury, 26 October).
• Technology, consumer discretionary and industrials led; communications, staples and health care lagged (Investrade). Money moved out of defensives again.
• What carries over: the AI trade has a new test. Anthropic's public filing showed first-half revenue up about 1,300% to $1.16 billion, with a listing possible as soon as next month. Chips rallied on it. The same session showed the costs: Meta plans to raise about $95 billion in equity for AI spending and fell, and Elon Musk said debt markets have cut off funding for AI data-centre operators without other revenue. Overnight, Chinese chip stocks fell sharply. That is the backdrop for Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:00 · Building permits, Sep final · 1.40M · 1.403M · USD

08:15 · ADP NER Pulse, weekly · n/a · 18.5K · USD

08:30 · Durable goods orders m/m, Sep · 1.5% · 0.0% · USD · ES · GC

08:30 · Durable goods ex-transport m/m, Sep · 0.6% · 0.3% · USD · ES

08:30 · Core capital goods orders m/m, Sep · 0.7% · 1.6% · USD · ES

09:00 · FHFA house price index m/m, Aug · 0.2% · 0.3% · USD

09:00 · Case-Shiller 20-city y/y, Aug · 2.5% · 2.5% · USD

10:00 · Conference Board consumer confidence, Oct · 81.0 · 81.9 · USD · ES · GC

10:00 · New home sales, Sep · 650K · 684K · USD

10:00 · Richmond Fed manufacturing, Oct · 0 · −2 · USD

10:30 · Dallas Fed services, Oct · n/a · −1.8 · USD

11:30 · 6-week and 52-week bill auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

13:00 · 5-year note auction · n/a · n/a · USD · rates · GC

16:30 · API crude stocks, week to 23 Oct · n/a · −4.93M · CL

All day · FOMC meeting, day one (decision Wed 14:00) · n/a · n/a · USD · ES · GC

All day · Israel general election · n/a · n/a · CL · GC

Consensus: TradingEconomics. A second calendar (ActionForex) shows durable goods at 1.6%, consumer confidence at 81.2 and new home sales at 649K. Earnings: Coca-Cola and Boeing (both Dow members) and Corning before the open; Visa (a Dow member) and Seagate after the close.

Durable goods at 08:30 is the first print, and consumer confidence at 10:00 is the one most likely to move anything. The headline durable goods consensus is 1.5% after a flat August, so the aircraft swing dominates it; core capital goods orders are the business-investment read. Confidence matters more today because the Fed decides tomorrow with a December hike priced at 75-80%: a drop in the expectations index would test that pricing, while a firm reading supports it. The 5-year auction at 13:00 follows Monday's 2-year as the second rates test before the decision. Israel's result is likely to arrive after the US close.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Monday's moves, close to close; pre-market as of about 06:45 ET.

• GS +2.01% was the largest point gain among the Dow's leaders in the price-weighted index. MSFT +1.54% was next, then NVDA +2.39% and CSCO +3.51%. All four are Dow members; MSFT and NVDA are also the two largest Nasdaq-100 weights. On the other side, UNH −1.77% and MRK −3.21% were the main Dow drags. VZ −3.49% fell after third-quarter revenue missed estimates, despite an earnings beat and raised guidance.
• Chips carried the Nasdaq-100: NVDA +2.39%, AVGO +2.33%, MU +2.98%. All three are Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 members. Pre-market, AVGO is +2.25% and MU +2.02%, so the bid is extending. TSLA +5.21% after a Barclays upgrade to Overweight, also a Nasdaq-100 weight.
• META −1.88% after announcing plans to raise about $95 billion in equity for AI infrastructure. GOOGL −1.06%. Both are Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weights; MSFT is −0.68% pre-market before Wednesday's report.
• KO and BA report before the open. Both are Dow members. Boeing is expected to post a quarterly loss; free cash flow and delivery rates are the focus. KO is −0.23% and BA +0.57% in thin pre-market trading, ahead of the releases. V reports after the close; it is one of the highest-priced Dow members, so its reaction will show up in YM on Wednesday morning.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Monday's calls. We asked whether WTI would get back to Friday's settle. It did not: it settled 1.46% lower. We asked whether YM would keep leading NQ. It did not: the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.09% against the Dow's 0.28%, so NQ has now led YM for two sessions. We asked whether gold could hold its bounce without help from yields or the dollar. It did on Monday (+0.76%), and is giving it back overnight.
• Whether the euro's fall spreads. Today's dollar move is one pair. If 6B and 6J follow 6E, it becomes a dollar story before the Fed; if not, it stays a European data story.
• Whether NQ holds Monday's chip gain at the open. NQ's overnight range is two and a half times ES's, and China's chip stocks fell overnight.
• Whether gold stays offered while yields fall. Gold is down with the 10-year lower overnight. If that continues into the cash session, the dollar and the FOMC are doing the work, not real yields.
• Whether crude's two catalysts stay balanced. Mediation in Tehran pushes one way and pipeline attacks the other. An Israeli result read as hawkish on Iran would add to the second.

The Bottom Line

Monday was the AI trade testing itself: Anthropic's filing lifted chips, while Meta's equity raise and the warning on data-centre funding showed the cost. Index futures have done nothing since, so the overnight moves are in the euro, gold and crude, not ES and NQ. Durable goods and consumer confidence are the only data before the Fed decides tomorrow, and the Israeli election result will arrive after the close. This is a session where the references are tight and the event risk is mostly scheduled for after it.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._