Calendar › EIA weekly natural gas storage › 2026-10-22
Natural Gas +77 Bcf vs +79 Est — Seventh Week Under Normal, Surplus Down to 35
Fundamentals · 2026-10-22
Working gas in storage rose 77 Bcf in the week to 16 October against a 79 Bcf consensus (TradingEconomics), after +67 the week before, unrevised. That is 2 Bcf below the survey, 10 Bcf below the five-year average build of +87, the seventh straight week under the seasonal norm, and 9 Bcf below the year-ago +86. Total stocks 3,644 Bcf: 152 Bcf (−4.0%) below last year, from 143, and 35 Bcf (+1.0%) above the five-year average, from 45. South Central +28 against a normal 33 carried half the shortfall, but salt injected 15 Bcf, its largest refill in at least six weeks, and only 1 short of normal. Midwest beat its norm (+28 against 27) and Pacific matched it after last week's draw. Standard error on the net change 0.8 Bcf. Next release 29 October.
What It Changes
- Close to consensus, short of normal again. 77 against 79 expected is a 2 Bcf miss to the tight side, small enough that it changes little on its own. Against the five-year build of 87, the shortfall narrowed to 10 Bcf from 23.
- The surplus keeps shrinking, but more slowly. Stocks are 35 Bcf above the five-year average, down from 45 last week and 118 five weeks ago. At this week's gap, the surplus lasts past the end of injection season; at last week's, it would not.
- Salt turned the corner on its own pace. South Central salt injected 15 Bcf against a normal 16, its best week of the refill, so the gap to its five-year average narrowed to 14.9% from 15.4%. It is still the tightest part of the system.
- The end-of-season cushion is intact. With two weeks of injection left, stocks finish near 3,800 Bcf at this week's pace, close to last year's level at the same point.
Impact
- Natural Gas (NG) — Slight bullish — a build 2 Bcf below consensus and 10 below normal tightens the picture a little, but by far less than last week's 9 Bcf miss.
- The front month whipsawed. In the release minute it traded from +0.64% to −0.68% against its 10:29 close and finished the minute −0.54%, on the heaviest one-minute volume of the morning. It bottomed at −0.82% at 10:31, then reversed: by 10:36 ET it was +0.68% from 10:29 and about +1.1% on the day. A small miss to the tight side with no clear first read, then a slow move in the bullish direction.
- The level is a cushion, and a thinner one each week. At 3,644 Bcf stocks are 35 Bcf above the five-year average and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range". The trajectory, not the total, is where the tightness shows.
- End-of-season arithmetic. Two weeks of injection remain to 30 October. At this week's 77 Bcf pace, stocks end near 3,800 Bcf; at last week's 67, near 3,780; at this week's five-year build of 87, near 3,820. Last week the same arithmetic gave 3,770 at the 67 pace.
- USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.
Inside The Number
Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 77 Bcf in the week ending Friday 16 October, taking total stocks to 3,644 Bcf. Consensus was +79 Bcf (TradingEconomics), and the prior week's +67 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,567 is this week's starting point. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 0.8 Bcf, so the 2 Bcf miss is real rather than sampling error, but small.
The seasonal comparison. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,522 Bcf to 3,609 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +87 Bcf. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,710 to 3,796, a +86 Bcf build. This week's 77 is 10 Bcf below the five-year norm and 9 below last year. The run of shortfalls against the five-year build is now 12, 29, 23, 16, 11, 23 and 10 Bcf over seven weeks: every week short, this one among the smallest.
Both level comparisons moved the tight way again. Stocks are 35 Bcf above the five-year average (3,609 Bcf), a 1.0% surplus that narrowed by 10 from 45. They are 152 Bcf below a year ago (3,796 Bcf), a 4.0% deficit that widened by 9 from 143.
The shortfall moved back to the south and east. EIA publishes each region's year-ago and five-year stock in Bcf, so differencing them against last week's report gives each region's normal build:
- East built 16 Bcf against a five-year normal of 20 and a year-ago 17.
- Midwest built 28 against 27, year-ago 29: the only region above its norm.
- Mountain built 2 against 4, year-ago 4.
- Pacific built 3 against 3, year-ago 3, after drawing 5 the week before.
- South Central built 28 against 33, year-ago 32. Inside it, salt injected 15 against a normal 16 and nonsalt 14 against 18.
South Central accounts for 5 of the 10 Bcf shortfall and the East for 4. Last week the Pacific draw and a short South Central made up 17 of 23.
South Central's total gap widened even as salt's narrowed. At 1,125 Bcf the region is 3.4% below its five-year average, from 3.1%, and 10.0% below a year ago, from 9.9%. The miss was in nonsalt, which built 14 against 18. Salt rose to 251 Bcf, a third straight week of refilling after three weeks of draws in September, and the 15 Bcf injection was the largest of the refill. It now sits 14.9% below its five-year average, from 15.4%, and 21.1% below a year ago, from 21.9%. The salt standard error is 0.4 Bcf. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps.
Why the build was smaller than normal is not in the release. EIA reports storage, not supply or demand. Last week's brief flagged that a Gulf hurricane at the very end of that report week could have trimmed South Central's build. This week's report covers the days after, and South Central was again short, by 5 Bcf rather than 10, but the release cannot say whether supply, power burn or exports explain it.
The rest of the country is still above its own history. East holds 900 Bcf, 2.7% above its five-year average, from 3.3%; Midwest 1,065 Bcf, 2.0% above, unchanged; Mountain 257 Bcf, 4.5% above, from 5.4%; Pacific 297 Bcf, 6.5% above, unchanged.
The Internals
The headline against every benchmark:
Comparison · Value · Gap · Read
This week's build · +77 Bcf · n/a · The print
Consensus · +79 Bcf · −2 Bcf · Slightly smaller build than expected
Prior week · +67 Bcf · +10 Bcf · Larger build, prior unrevised
Five-year average build, this week · +87 Bcf · −10 Bcf · Seventh straight week below normal
Same week a year ago · +86 Bcf · −9 Bcf · Below last year
Standard error on the net change · 0.8 Bcf · n/a · A precise print
The shortfall against the five-year build, seven weeks:
Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Shortfall
4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About 12 Bcf
11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · 29 Bcf
18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · 23 Bcf
25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · 16 Bcf
2 October · +85 Bcf · +96 Bcf · 11 Bcf
9 October · +67 Bcf · +90 Bcf · 23 Bcf
16 October · +77 Bcf · +87 Bcf · 10 Bcf
Stock levels:
Measure · 16 October · 9 October · Change
Total working gas · 3,644 Bcf · 3,567 Bcf · +77
Year-ago stocks · 3,796 Bcf · 3,710 Bcf · +86
Deficit to last year · −152 Bcf, −4.0% · −143 Bcf, −3.9% · Widened 9
Five-year average stocks · 3,609 Bcf · 3,522 Bcf · +87
Surplus to five-year average · +35 Bcf, +1.0% · +45 Bcf, +1.3% · Narrowed 10
Regional detail, Bcf:
Region · 16 Oct · 9 Oct · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year
East · 900 · 884 · +16 · 897 · +0.3% · 876 · +2.7%
Midwest · 1,065 · 1,037 · +28 · 1,056 · +0.9% · 1,044 · +2.0%
Mountain · 257 · 255 · +2 · 282 · −8.9% · 246 · +4.5%
Pacific · 297 · 294 · +3 · 310 · −4.2% · 279 · +6.5%
South Central · 1,125 · 1,097 · +28 · 1,250 · −10.0% · 1,165 · −3.4%
South Central salt · 251 · 236 · +15 · 318 · −21.1% · 295 · −14.9%
South Central nonsalt · 875 · 861 · +14 · 933 · −6.2% · 871 · +0.5%
Total Lower 48 · 3,644 · 3,567 · +77 · 3,796 · −4.0% · 3,609 · +1.0%
This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks (regions may not sum to the total because of rounding):
Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build
East · +16 · +20 · −4 · +17
Midwest · +28 · +27 · +1 · +29
Mountain · +2 · +4 · −2 · +4
Pacific · +3 · +3 · 0 · +3
South Central · +28 · +33 · −5 · +32
South Central salt · +15 · +16 · −1 · +16
South Central nonsalt · +14 · +18 · −4 · +17
Total Lower 48 · +77 · +87 · −10 · +86
South Central salt, five weeks:
Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year
18 September · 217 Bcf · −5 · −27.2% · −12.5%
25 September · 213 Bcf · −4 · −27.3% · −15.5%
2 October · 227 Bcf · +14 · −23.1% · −14.0%
9 October · 236 Bcf · +9 · −21.9% · −15.4%
16 October · 251 Bcf · +15 · −21.1% · −14.9%
Where the injection season ends, on flat paces over the two remaining weeks to 30 October:
Weekly pace · Basis · End-October stocks
+87 Bcf · This week's five-year average build · About 3,820 Bcf
+77 Bcf · This week · About 3,800 Bcf
+73 Bcf · Four-week average · About 3,790 Bcf
+67 Bcf · Last week · About 3,780 Bcf
Sampling precision, from EIA:
Region · Standard error on the net change
East · 0.2 Bcf
Midwest · 0.3 Bcf
Mountain · 0.1 Bcf
Pacific · 0.0 Bcf
South Central · 0.7 Bcf
South Central salt · 0.4 Bcf
South Central nonsalt · 0.5 Bcf
Total Lower 48 · 0.8 Bcf
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed EIA gas storage at 10:30 with an 80 Bcf consensus after 67 Bcf, tagged for NG — The Open. It printed 77 Bcf, 3 below that figure and 2 below TradingEconomics' later 79, a small miss to the tight side.
What This Sets Up
- Next storage report: Thursday, 29 October, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 23 October (EIA). It is the second-to-last week of the injection season.
- The read to confirm or break is whether the surplus survives the season. Another week 10 Bcf short leaves stocks about 25 Bcf above the five-year average with one week to go; a week 20 Bcf or more short would bring them within reach of normal.
- Watch South Central salt. A second week near its normal refill would confirm the corner turned; a return to single-digit injections would put it back on the wrong path into winter.
- Watch South Central nonsalt. It carried this week's regional miss; another short week there would widen the region's gap even with salt recovering.
What Is This?
- What it is: The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released Thursday at 10:30am ET. It estimates working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 from a sample of operators (Form EIA-912), in five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt reservoirs. The net change is the weekly build or draw, in billion cubic feet (Bcf).
- Why it matters: Storage is the buffer between supply and winter demand. October is the end of injection season, so each week's build sets how much gas the system carries into the heating season. The gap to the five-year average and to last year is what the market prices as tightness or slack.
- How to read it: Compare the build with consensus for the day's surprise, and with the five-year average build for the same week for the seasonal picture. Watch South Central salt, which can be drawn quickly in a cold snap, separately from the slower nonsalt reservoirs. Use the standard errors EIA publishes to judge whether a regional move is real or noise. The release reports storage, not why it changed, so weather, production and LNG exports explain the number only from other sources.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._