Calendar › EIA weekly petroleum status (crude inventories) › 2026-10-21

Crude −3.1M vs −0.8M Est — Output Falls Again as Exports Drop 1.1M b/d

Fundamentals · 2026-10-21

Commercial crude −3.061M to 412.5M in the week ended 16 October (vs −0.8M est (TradingEconomics); API −4.93M), now 2.4% below a year ago, from 1.9%; adjustment +47 kb/d, about 0.3M barrels, so measured flows point to a −3.4M draw; production −410 kb/d to 13.27 mb/d, a second straight fall; exports −1,128 kb/d to 3.44 mb/d, imports −291 kb/d to 5.76 mb/d; refinery runs +34 kb/d to 16.65 mb/d, utilization 93.4%; Gulf Coast −5.04M; Cushing +0.99M to 27.6M, a fourth straight build, 30.0% above a year ago; SPR −0.30M to 282.7M; gasoline −2.952M vs −0.4M est; distillate +1.674M vs −1.2M est; total products supplied 21.2 mb/d, −130 kb/d; total commercial stocks −8.45M.

What It Changes

• A third straight draw, and a cleaner one. Commercial crude fell 3.1 million barrels against a 0.8 million draw expected, smaller than the API's 4.9 million but in the same direction. The adjustment was close to zero, so this week's headline is what the measured flows say.
• Production fell again. Output dropped 410 kb/d after last week's 300 kb/d fall, a 710 kb/d decline in two weeks. Last week's brief asked whether the first drop would reverse. It did not.
• Exports hid part of the draw. Crude exports fell 1.1 million b/d, which kept about 7.9 million barrels at home over the week. Without that drop, the supply loss would have shown up as a much larger draw.
• Gasoline and distillate swapped places. Gasoline drew 3.0 million on a 575 kb/d jump in demand. Distillate built 1.7 million after last week's demand spike reversed. Last week's tightest product line loosened.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Slight bullish — a third straight draw, larger than consensus, with production down for a second week; the export drop and the Cushing build are what keep it from being more.
• The release minute was flat: December WTI was +0.02% at 10:30 against its 10:29 close, +0.26% by 10:35 and +0.16% at 11:13 ET. Brent was +0.16%, +0.49% and +0.65% at the same points.
• The overnight gain was gone before the report. The Open had December WTI +2.3% at 06:32. By 10:29 it was −0.16% against Tuesday's settle, and at 11:13 it was −0.02%. Brent was +0.43% at 11:13. This brief doesn't attribute that fade to the report, which came after it.
• Products moved with the stock changes. In the release minute, November RBOB gasoline was +0.42% and November heating oil −0.34%. By 11:13 heating oil was −2.25% on the day, in line with the distillate build.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — energy names benefit at the margin, but there is no index-level read.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no mechanism worth writing down this week. The Open's oil-to-inflation question for gold is about crude prices, and crude did not move on the report.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 3.061 million barrels to 412.517 million in the week ended 16 October, against a consensus draw of 0.8 million (TradingEconomics; The Open carried the same). The API had reported a 4.93 million barrel draw on Tuesday evening, so the direction was flagged again, though EIA's figure came in about 1.9 million smaller. It is the third straight EIA draw, after −3.186 million and −8.557 million, for −14.8 million over three weeks. Stocks are now 2.4% below the same week last year, from 1.9%. Including the SPR, total crude fell 3.361 million to 695.2 million, 16.4% below a year ago. The report was back on its normal Wednesday 10:30 schedule after last week's holiday delay.

The adjustment is out of the picture. EIA's crude balancing item printed +47 kb/d, about 0.33 million barrels over the week, after −308 kb/d last week. The commercial stock change was −437 kb/d; take the adjustment out and measured flows point to −484 kb/d, about a 3.4 million barrel draw. That is close to the headline. Over six weeks the adjustment has run +577, +215, −238, −589, −308 and +47 kb/d.

The supply story is production. Domestic output fell 410 kb/d to 13.269 mb/d, after a 300 kb/d fall the week before. Lower 48 production fell 457 kb/d to 12.757 mb/d, while Alaska rose 47 kb/d. The two-week decline is 710 kb/d, and output is now 360 kb/d below the same week last year. Last week the fall came as Hurricane Isaias approached the Gulf of Mexico; EIA does not attribute either week's drop, and the weekly production figure is an estimate that EIA later checks against monthly data. Even so, it is the second week in a row that the read pointed lower.

Exports did the opposite. Crude exports fell 1,128 kb/d to 3.442 mb/d, the largest single swing in the balance, and imports fell 291 kb/d to 5.758 mb/d. Net imports therefore rose 837 kb/d to 2.316 mb/d. Over seven days, the export drop alone kept about 7.9 million barrels in US tanks. That is simple arithmetic, not a forecast: weekly export figures swing widely and often reverse, and a rebound next week would hit stocks directly. The four-week average for exports is 4.087 mb/d, so this week sits well below the recent run.

Refiners held their pace. Crude inputs rose 34 kb/d to 16.649 mb/d, 5.8% above a year ago, and utilization slipped 0.1 points to 93.4%. The Rocky Mountain region ran at 100.6%, up 6.0 points. The Gulf Coast eased 0.4 points to 95.9%, the West Coast 1.2 points to 92.0% and the East Coast 0.3 points to 80.8%. The Midwest rose 0.4 points to 90.2%.

Regionally, the Gulf Coast drew again and Cushing built again. Gulf Coast stocks fell 5.041 million barrels to 229.3 million, 6.1% below a year ago, after a 9.2 million draw last week. That is 14.3 million barrels in two weeks from the region that holds the export terminals and most of the refining capacity. Cushing rose 0.987 million to 27.594 million, a fourth straight weekly build, now 30.0% above a year ago. The rest of the Midwest drew about 0.35 million. The East Coast built 1.137 million, the Rocky Mountain region 786,000 and Alaska in-transit 1.024 million; the West Coast drew 577,000.

Products reversed last week's pattern. Gasoline fell 2.952 million barrels to 205.3 million against a 0.4 million draw expected, as gasoline supplied jumped 575 kb/d to 8.982 mb/d. Gasoline is now 5.2% below a year ago, from 4.8%. Distillate rose 1.674 million to 104.3 million against a 1.2 million draw expected, with ultra-low-sulphur diesel up 1.300 million, as distillate supplied fell 591 kb/d to 3.732 mb/d after last week's 673 kb/d jump. Distillate is 9.7% below a year ago, from 12.3%. Jet fuel fell 189,000, propane fell 529,000, and total commercial petroleum stocks fell 8.454 million barrels, 5.4% below a year ago.

Demand held near the recent run. Total products supplied fell 130 kb/d to 21.231 mb/d. The four-week average is 21.122 mb/d, 3.2% above a year ago. Gasoline's four-week average is 1.5% above last year and distillate's 2.4% below. Product exports rose 33 kb/d to 7.407 mb/d. Counting crude and products together, the US was a net exporter of 3.714 mb/d, down 659 kb/d on the week because of the crude export drop.

The SPR drew again. It fell 300,000 barrels to 282.683 million, about 43 kb/d, after holding flat last week. It is 30.8% below a year ago.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 16 October:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 412.517 · 415.577 · −3.061 · 422.824 · −2.4%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 282.683 · 282.983 · −0.300 · 408.564 · −30.8%

Total crude including SPR · 695.200 · 698.560 · −3.361 · 831.388 · −16.4%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 27.594 · 26.607 · +0.987 · 21.231 · +30.0%

Total motor gasoline · 205.310 · 208.262 · −2.952 · 216.679 · −5.2%

Distillate fuel oil · 104.286 · 102.611 · +1.674 · 115.551 · −9.7%

Ultra-low-sulphur distillate · 92.880 · 91.580 · +1.300 · 104.952 · −11.5%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 42.606 · 42.795 · −0.189 · 42.929 · −0.8%

Propane and propylene · 105.846 · 106.375 · −0.529 · 103.175 · +2.6%

Residual fuel oil · 23.733 · 24.167 · −0.434 · 21.929 · +8.2%

Fuel ethanol · 24.558 · 23.942 · +0.616 · 21.919 · +12.0%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,215.562 · 1,224.016 · −8.454 · 1,284.648 · −5.4%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 8.550 · +1.137 · 7.633 · +12.0%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 107.639 · +0.635 · 101.606 · +5.9%

Of which: Cushing · 27.594 · +0.987 · 21.231 · +30.0%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 229.318 · −5.041 · 244.299 · −6.1%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 23.496 · +0.786 · 23.513 · −0.1%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 43.513 · −0.577 · 45.773 · −4.9%

Alaska in-transit · 4.530 · +1.024 · 3.869 · +17.1%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 13,269 · 13,679 · −410 · 13,629

Lower 48 production · 12,757 · 13,214 · −457 · 13,208

Crude imports · 5,758 · 6,049 · −291 · 5,918

Crude exports · 3,442 · 4,570 · −1,128 · 4,203

Net imports · 2,316 · 1,479 · +837 · 1,715

Refinery crude inputs · 16,649 · 16,615 · +34 · 15,730

Commercial stock change · −437 · −1,222 · +785 · −137

Adjustment · +47 · −308 · +355 · −92

Stock change excluding the adjustment · −484 · −914 · +430 · −45

The adjustment, six weeks:

Week ended · Adjustment, kb/d · About, million barrels · Headline change, million barrels

11 September · +577 · +4.0 · n/a

18 September · +215 · +1.5 · +2.97

25 September · −238 · −1.7 · +0.92

2 October · −589 · −4.1 · −3.19

9 October · −308 · −2.2 · −8.56

16 October · +47 · +0.3 · −3.06

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Total · 93.4% · 93.5% · −0.1 · 88.6%

East Coast · 80.8% · 81.1% · −0.3 · 93.7%

Midwest · 90.2% · 89.7% · +0.4 · 86.5%

Gulf Coast · 95.9% · 96.3% · −0.4 · 92.0%

Rocky Mountain · 100.6% · 94.6% · +6.0 · 93.1%

West Coast · 92.0% · 93.2% · −1.2 · 76.3%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · Four-week average · vs year ago, four-week

Total · 21,231 · −130 · 21,122 · +3.2%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,982 · +575 · 8,712 · +1.5%

Distillate fuel oil · 3,732 · −591 · 3,913 · −2.4%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,813 · +188 · 1,736 · +1.4%

Propane and propylene · 1,020 · −189 · 1,022 · +19.6%

Residual fuel oil · 431 · +247 · 324 · +46.1%

Other oils · 5,254 · −359 · 5,416 · +6.4%

Against This Morning's Open

• The direction held; the setup didn't. The Open said a draw near the API's 4.93 million "would confirm a tight market at a time when crude is already near the top of its overnight range" — The Open. EIA drew 3.1 million, smaller than API but nearly four times consensus, so the direction was confirmed.
• Crude was no longer near its high by 10:30. December WTI had given back The Open's +2.3% before the report and was slightly below Tuesday's settle at 10:29. The report itself moved it less than 0.3%.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA petroleum report: Wednesday, 28 October, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 23 October.
• Production is the read to confirm or break. Two weeks of falls total 710 kb/d. A third week lower makes the supply loss hard to dismiss as noise; a rebound toward 13.7 mb/d says it was.
• Watch exports. A 1.1 million b/d drop kept about 7.9 million barrels at home this week. If exports bounce back toward their 4.1 mb/d four-week average while output stays low, the draw gets much larger.
• Watch Cushing against the Gulf Coast. Cushing has built four weeks running and is 30% above a year ago, while the Gulf Coast has drawn 14.3 million in two weeks. The tightness is still on the coast, not at the WTI delivery point.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Wednesdays at 10:30am ET. It reports US crude and product inventories, production, imports and exports, refinery runs and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday, from surveys of refiners, terminals, pipelines and importers. Weekly production is an estimate that EIA later checks against monthly data.
• Why it matters: Crude has been driven this autumn by Middle East supply disruptions and attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. US inventories show whether the physical market is tightening or loosening at home. Distillate stocks also feed directly into diesel and heating oil costs, which the inflation reports have flagged as some of the sharpest price increases.
• How to read it: Start with commercial crude against consensus and against the API figure released the evening before. Then check the adjustment, EIA's balancing item: a large adjustment means the headline is not fully explained by measured flows. Read exports and production next, because those are the swing lines. Read Cushing separately, because it is the WTI delivery point. Then read gasoline and distillate with products supplied, which show whether demand or supply moved the stocks. Weekly trade figures swing widely, so use four-week averages for the trend.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._