Calendar › Chicago PMI (business barometer) › 2026-10-30

Chicago PMI Slips to 55.3 vs 56.1 Est — Prices Paid Hit Highest Since 2021

Fundamentals · 2026-10-30

Chicago Business Barometer 55.3 in October (vs 56.1 est), −3.5 points from 58.8; above 50 for a second month; supplier deliveries −10.3, production −5.2, order backlogs −4.4, new orders −0.6; employment +10.3 to its highest since April 2021; prices paid +8.9 to their highest since December 2021; no respondent reported lower prices for an eighth month

What It Changes

• The miss is delivery times, not demand. The Barometer fell 3.5 points to 55.3, 0.8 points under the 56.1 consensus (TradingEconomics). Supplier deliveries gave back 10.3 points, most of September's rise; new orders barely moved, down 0.6.
• Hiring jumped. Employment rose 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021, back above 50 after one month below. September's story was output without hiring; October reversed that.
• Prices are the real headline. Prices paid rose 8.9 points to their highest since December 2021, on chemical- and petroleum-based inputs, fuel surcharges and freight. Not one respondent reported lower prices for an eighth month.
• It undercuts the soft ECI read. This morning's ECI said labour costs are not accelerating. Chicago says firms are hiring and paying more for inputs. For a Fed weighing a December hike, the detail here leans hawkish even though the headline missed.

Impact

• USD — Mixed — the headline miss leans soft, but hiring at a five-year high and prices paid at their highest since 2021 give the hike case something the 08:30 ECI did not.
• The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.98% (US Treasury), −7bp; Chicago is too small a release to move that on its own.
• We did not capture a verified post-release % move for DXY or yields at the time of writing.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — steady new orders and stronger hiring support cyclicals, but rising input costs squeeze margins, and the tape this morning is set by Intel and Amazon, not regional data.
• YM and RTY carry the manufacturing and regional read more than NQ.
• Gold (GC) — Mixed — the prices-paid jump feeds the inflation-hedge case, but a hawkish read on the rate path works against it, and gold is trading liquidation alongside equities this morning.

Inside The Number

The Chicago Business Barometer, produced by ISM-Chicago with MNI, fell 3.5 points to 55.3 in October, against a 56.1 consensus (TradingEconomics). It stays above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction for a second straight month, after a one-month dip to 47.1 in August.

The decline came from supplier deliveries, production, order backlogs and new orders, partly offset by employment. The biggest mover was supplier deliveries, down 10.3 points to their lowest since February but still above 50 for a 21st month. A lower deliveries reading means faster deliveries, which subtracts from the headline even though it signals less strain. MNI said respondents were mixed: some said deliveries were still slow despite shorter lead times, others cited persistent delays out of Asia.

Demand held. New orders slipped only 0.6 points and stayed firmly in expansion for a second month, so the seasonal lift some respondents credited for September's jump has not unwound. Production fell 5.2 points but stayed above 50. Order backlogs fell 4.4 points and remain in contraction for a fourth month, though above August's low.

Employment is the surprise. It rose 10.3 points to its highest since April 2021, back above 50 after one month in contraction, with more firms reporting higher headcount and fewer reporting cuts. In September firms raised output without adding staff; in October they hired.

Prices paid rose 8.9 points to their highest since December 2021. Respondents cited chemical- and petroleum-based inputs, fuel surcharges and freight. For an eighth straight month, no respondent reported paying less than the month before. Inventories rose 4.0 points but stayed in contraction for a third month. The survey ran from 1 to 13 October.

Against the national backdrop, Q3 GDP grew 3.4% and the ECI showed labour costs rising 0.8% as expected this morning. Chicago fits the strong-activity side of that picture, and its prices line points the same way as the energy-led inflation the past six months of briefs have tracked.

The Internals

MNI publishes the point changes; sub-index levels are subscriber-only.

Component · Change · Status · Headline weight · Read

Chicago Business Barometer · −3.5 to 55.3 · Expansion, 2nd month · n/a · Below 56.1 consensus

Supplier deliveries · −10.3 · Above 50, 21st month · 0.15 · Lowest since February

Production · −5.2 · Expansion, 2nd month · 0.25 · Gave back a third of September

Order backlogs · −4.4 · Contraction, 4th month · 0.15 · Above August's low

New orders · −0.6 · Expansion, 2nd month · 0.35 · Held September's gain

Employment · +10.3 · Expansion · 0.10 · Highest since April 2021

Prices paid · +8.9 · Not published · not in headline · Highest since December 2021

Inventories · +4.0 · Contraction, 3rd month · not in headline · Still shrinking

Approximate contribution to the 3.5-point fall, using the component weights TradingEconomics publishes, before seasonal adjustment:

Component · Weighted change

Supplier deliveries · −1.5

Production · −1.3

Order backlogs · −0.7

New orders · −0.2

Employment · +1.0

Weighted total · −2.7

The weighted components sum to about −2.7 points; the headline is seasonally adjusted as a whole, which accounts for the rest of the 3.5-point move. Delivery times and production explain most of the drop; new orders explain almost none of it. Treat these as a guide, not as published figures.

Month · Barometer · Change · Status

October 2026 · 55.3 · −3.5 · Expansion, 2nd month

September 2026 · 58.8 · +11.7 · Expansion, highest since May

August 2026 · 47.1 · −10.5 · Contraction

July 2026 · 57.6 · +0.9 · Expansion, 3rd month

June 2026 · 56.7 · n/a · Expansion

What The Firms Actually Said

This month's special questions went to purchasing and supply-chain managers.

The survey asked: "How does your current order backlog compare with the period before the Middle East conflict, and what is driving the change?"

Response · Share

About the same as before the conflict · 44%

Larger, driven by both rising demand and constrained supply or capacity · 19%

Larger, primarily driven by rising demand · 11%

Larger, primarily driven by constrained supply or production capacity · 7%

Other · 7%

Smaller than before the conflict · 4%

In all, 37% report a larger backlog than before the conflict against 4% smaller. Only 11% put that down to demand alone; for more than two-thirds of those with bigger backlogs, constrained supply or capacity is at least part of the reason. That fits the supplier-deliveries comments on Asian delays and the fuel and freight costs behind prices paid.

And: "Which of the following would you consider Procurement is successfully achieving?" Firms could pick more than one.

Achievement · Share

Managing today's uncertainty · 81%

Creating competitive advantage · 42%

Building resilience · 35%

Transforming the organization · 12%

Investing for the future · 4%

Four in five say procurement is succeeding at managing uncertainty; only 4% say it is investing for the future. Purchasing teams are firefighting.

And: "Where is your organization closest to on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) journey?"

Stage · Share

Awareness · 52%

Team enablement · 22%

Integration · 15%

Adoption · 7%

Other · 4%

Transformation · 0%

Half of these firms are still at the awareness stage and none report transformation. The AI spending that is lifting megacap earnings has not yet reached the purchasing desks of Chicago-area firms.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open carried Chicago PMI at a 56.1 consensus against a 58.8 prior and tagged it USD and ES. It printed 55.3, under consensus but well above 50.
• The Open called the 08:30 ECI the only macro print with any weight and said the tape was being set by earnings, not data. A modest regional miss does not change that, though the prices-paid jump is the detail most likely to matter beyond today.

What This Sets Up

• ISM manufacturing on Monday, 2 November is the national check. Its prices index is the one to compare with Chicago's jump to a near five-year high.
• Next Chicago Business Barometer: Monday, 30 November 2026, 09:45 ET, with November data.
• What would confirm the read: new orders holding above 50 with employment still in expansion and prices paid staying high, which would mean firm demand plus cost pressure, the mix that keeps a December hike in play.
• What would break it: employment falling back below 50 and prices paid easing, which would make October's hiring and price jump a one-month spike.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Chicago Business Barometer, often called the Chicago PMI, produced by ISM-Chicago with MNI Indicators and published at 09:45 ET on the last business day of the month. It surveys purchasing and supply-chain professionals at manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Chicago area, and has run monthly since 1946. The headline is a weighted composite of five sub-indices: new orders, production, order backlogs, supplier deliveries and employment.
• Why it matters: It lands the business day before ISM manufacturing and covers services firms as well as manufacturers. With the Fed having hiked in September and held in October on a 10-2 vote with two hike dissents, activity surveys are part of whether the economy can absorb tighter policy.
• How to read it: Each sub-index is a diffusion index: the share reporting an increase plus half the share reporting no change. Above 50 means more firms report increases than decreases; the distance from 50 shows how broad the change is, not its size. Supplier deliveries are inverted in their effect: a higher reading means slower deliveries, which raises the headline even though it signals constraint. The Chicago survey is regional, so it moves much more month to month than the national ISM index.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._