Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-03

Oil bounces 2% after Qeshm strike. Apple slides 3.9%

Rundown · 2026-11-03

Monday's diplomacy trade is being partly unwound, and the indices have split. WTI is +2.06% against Monday's settle, after Monday's −7.36% on the Doha peace talks: a US official said the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that a deal to end the war is far off. The indices are pointing in different directions: NQ +0.33%, ES −0.12%, RTY −0.12%, YM −0.74%, as of about 06:32 ET. NQ is leaning on a chip bounce. YM is carrying Apple's −3.9% pre-market after the company warned memory costs will keep rising into the December quarter. Gold is −1.39% after Monday's +1.81%, and the 10-year is +3bp overnight after closing Monday at 4.91% (US Treasury). Overnight the RBA hiked to 4.85% on a 6-3 split vote, Japan was closed for a holiday, and today is US midterm election day. Nothing prints at 08:30. JOLTS and factory orders at 10:00 are the only data likely to move anything; AMD reports after the close and results start arriving after 18:00 ET.

Overnight

• Against Monday's settles, about 06:32 ET: NQ +0.33% · ES −0.12% · RTY −0.12% · YM −0.74%. The gap between NQ and YM is more than a full percentage point, the reverse of Monday's cash session, when the Dow rose and the Nasdaq fell.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.60% (0.38% below to 0.22% above its settle) and sits just below the middle. NQ has ranged 0.88% (0.32% below to 0.56% above) and sits in the upper third. YM has ranged 0.89% (0.79% below to 0.10% above) and sits near the low. RTY has ranged 0.63% (0.43% below to 0.21% above) and sits mid-range.
• Why YM is lagging, and how much we can explain. Apple, one of the Dow's highest-priced members, is −3.9% pre-market and Goldman Sachs is −1.0% on thin volume. Together those two account for roughly a third of YM's move. Monday's Dow gain also leaned on the oil drop (the Dow Transports rose 1.54%), and crude is back up 2% this morning. We did not find a single catalyst for the rest.
• Asia: Japan was shut for Culture Day, so the Nikkei did not trade. Hang Seng +0.57%, Shanghai −0.82%. South Korea and Taiwan were among the weakest markets in the region.
• Europe is lower, led by chips. STOXX 600 −0.33%, DAX −0.59%, FTSE 100 −0.60%, CAC 40 −0.21%, with semiconductor names and earnings reactions weighing.
• What broke while the US was closed. The US strike on Qeshm Island (reported Monday 2 November; some US officials called it defensive, aimed at deterring attacks on shipping in Hormuz). Iran's parliament speaker said Tehran had given a "strong and rational response" and the ball is in Washington's court. Apple and Palantir both fell after reporting. The RBA hiked.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.12%, as of about 06:32 ET. The bid comes from the same place as the oil bounce: Qeshm put the war premium back, and the 10-year is up 3bp. It is a small move. The dollar index is still 0.44% lower over five days.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.22%, the biggest mover among the majors. It is carrying the dollar's move, with Tokyo closed for the holiday and US yields higher. Thin Japanese liquidity makes the overnight move less informative than usual.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.25%, a stronger loonie. That is crude: WTI +2.1% after Monday's 7.4% drop. On Monday the opposite pull applied.
• 6A: AUD/USD −0.21% despite a rate hike. The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.85% (RBA) at 22:30 ET, with six members for and three for holding. The split made it a less hawkish hike than a unanimous one. The statement pushed the return of inflation to the target range out to late 2027, about three quarters later than previously forecast, and named the Middle East conflict and oil supply as upside risks. The Aussie has ranged 0.63% overnight and sits mid-range.
• 6E: EUR/USD −0.04% and 6B: GBP/USD +0.01%, both flat. Neither has a local driver this morning. The Bank of England decides on Thursday.
• Fed pricing. We could not get a same-day CME FedWatch reading or a matching prediction-market figure for the December 9 meeting, so we are not printing hike odds this morning. Monday's quote was about 73% for a December hike.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −7.36% Monday, +2.06% overnight. Monday's drop priced the Doha talks between Iran and Qatar on a two-day plan to reopen Hormuz. Brent fell 7.63%. Overnight, WTI has ranged 2.66% (0.35% below to 2.31% above the settle) and sits near the top of that range. Brent is +1.59%.
• The mechanism. The plan to reopen the strait still depends on Washington accepting a list of Iranian demands it has not answered. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed talks are continuing but gave no timeframe. The Qeshm strike and Tuesday's "far off" comment from Tehran mean crude is now pricing stalled talks, not failed ones. That is why it has recovered less than a third of Monday's drop. API crude stocks print at 16:30 (2.1M build expected, TradingEconomics) and EIA follows Wednesday at 10:30.
• GC: +1.81% Monday, −1.39% overnight. Monday's gain lifted December gold off its one-year low. Overnight it has ranged 1.77% (1.65% below to 0.12% above the settle) and sits in the lower sixth.
• Why gold is offered. Higher oil feeds December hike pricing, and the 10-year is up 3bp with the dollar firmer. That is a rates move, unlike Friday's forced selling. Gold is trading as a rate-sensitive asset this morning, not as a haven.

Where We Left Off

• Monday's RTH: Dow +0.41%, S&P 500 −0.51%, Nasdaq Composite −1.07%, Russell 2000 −0.21% (AP; Investrade matches all four). The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% and closed more than 10% below its record, confirming a correction, its third this year.
• Treasury yields Monday: 10-year 4.91% (−3bp), 2-year 4.59% (+3bp), 30-year 5.28% (−3bp) (US Treasury, 2 November). The curve flattened. Overnight the 10-year is up about 3bp and the 2-year about 2bp.
• A rotation, not a rout. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by staples, real estate, utilities and financials, and Visa and Mastercard hit record highs. Technology fell 2.95% and energy 3.96% with crude. Stocks had been up more than 1% in the morning, then tech gave it back.
• What carries over: whether the Dow's rotation survives oil going back up. Monday's Dow strength came from cheaper oil and money leaving tech. This morning crude is higher and the Dow is the weakest index. If YM keeps lagging after 09:30, Monday's rotation was an oil trade rather than a lasting shift.

Yesterday's Data

• ISM manufacturing 55.5 vs 54.6 expected: a beat, while prices paid eased to 75.2, below estimate.
• Final manufacturing PMI cut to 54.9 from 56.0: a second big revision, and selling prices rose fastest since 2022.
• Construction spending −1.9% vs +0.4% expected: the whole drop came from a 13% fall in home improvements.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

06:00 · RCM/TIPP economic optimism, Nov (printed 48.5) · 46.2 · 46.8 · USD

06:00 · Logistics Managers Index, Oct (printed 70.7) · n/a · 70.2 · USD

08:55 · Redbook retail sales, week to Oct 31 · n/a · 9.3% y/y · ES

10:00 · JOLTS job openings, Sep · 7.10M · 7.079M · USD · ES/NQ · GC

10:00 · Factory orders, Sep m/m · 1.2% · 0.1% · USD

10:00 · Durable goods ex transport, Sep final · 0.5% · 0.3% · USD

11:30 · 6-week bill auction · n/a · 3.950% · rates

16:30 · API crude stocks, week to Oct 30 · 2.1M · −2.031M · CL

n/a · Total vehicle sales, Oct · 15.9M · 16.0M · USD

After close · AMD earnings · n/a · n/a · NQ · ES

From 18:00 · Midterm polls begin closing · n/a · n/a · USD · ES/NQ/YM/RTY · GC

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Release times from the BLS and Census calendars and TradingEconomics. There is nothing at 08:30: the BLS schedule lists only JOLTS today, and TradingEconomics shows the slot empty. There is no ADP weekly pulse this morning, because ADP skips it in weeks with a monthly report (October's lands Wednesday at 08:15). Pfizer reports before the bell. This week: ADP, ISM services, the Treasury refunding announcement and EIA crude on Wednesday; the Bank of England and jobless claims on Thursday; October payrolls on Friday (65K consensus, TradingEconomics).

JOLTS at 10:00 is the print likely to move anything, and it lands three days before payrolls. Openings near 7.1M would keep the labour market looking soft but steady. A sharp drop would add to the case that hiring is stalling, which would cut against the December hike pricing that has been weighing on gold. Factory orders are mostly already known from the advance durable goods report. The bigger event is after the cash close: AMD, and then the election results overnight.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Monday's moves close to close; pre-market as of about 06:43 ET.

• AAPL −1.83% Monday, −3.87% pre-market. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $114.5B and EPS 14% to $2.10 (Apple), both ahead of estimates. The stock is falling on the outlook: December-quarter revenue growth of 7-10%, gross margin guidance of 45-46% against about 46.3% expected, and CEO John Ternus calling memory pricing "unprecedented", with costs still rising after December. A top-three weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 and a high-priced Dow member, it is the largest single drag on all three this morning, and the one that hits YM hardest.
• NVDA −1.26% Monday, +1.38% pre-market, after four straight losing sessions. As the largest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight, it is the main reason NQ is green despite Apple.
• MSFT −2.83% Monday, −0.37% pre-market. A top-three weight in all three indices, it was one of Monday's biggest index drags without news of its own, as the AI-spending worries that put the Nasdaq-100 into correction spread.
• MRVL −12.72% Monday, +1.16% pre-market, after agreeing to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal: 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, an implied enterprise value of about $115B (Marvell, via SEC filing). Shareholders of both companies sold. Marvell is in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, so this is the deal of the week that index traders can actually trade.
• AMD −7.52% Monday, +2.18% pre-market. Reports after the close today. It led Monday's chip losses. Tonight's numbers set NQ's tone for the overnight session that also carries the election results.
• PLTR −3.13% Monday, −8.93% pre-market. Third-quarter revenue rose 96% to $2.313B (Palantir, SEC filing), but total contract value grew only 6% from a year earlier, and that slowdown is what the stock is trading. It is in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Monday's calls. We asked whether the Sunday gap would fill. It did: the S&P 500 finished down 0.51%, below Friday's close. We asked whether semiconductors would lead after 09:30. They did not: AMD fell 7.5% and Marvell 12.7%. We asked whether crude's drop would hold until Washington responded. It held through the settle (WTI −7.36%), then the Qeshm strike took back part of it overnight. We asked whether ISM prices would move December hike odds. It eased to 75.2, below the 77.0 expected.
• Whether YM's lag survives the open. If the Dow stays the weakest index after 09:30 with crude higher, Monday's rotation was an oil trade.
• Whether NQ holds green with Apple down nearly 4%. The chip bounce is carrying it. If NVDA and AMD give up their pre-market gains, nothing else in the Nasdaq-100 is offsetting Apple.
• Whether crude keeps climbing toward Monday's drop. WTI has recovered less than a third of it. A formal US answer to Iran's demands, either way, is the catalyst that would settle it.
• Whether JOLTS moves the 2-year. The 2-year rose Monday while the 10-year fell. A weak openings print would test that.

The Bottom Line

Monday was a rotation trade: cheaper oil, money out of tech, the Dow up and the Nasdaq-100 into correction. This morning half of that is unwinding. Crude is back up 2% after the Qeshm strike and Apple's outlook is pulling the Dow down, while chips have bounced enough to keep NQ positive. With nothing at 08:30, JOLTS at 10:00 is the only real data. The two risks that matter most, AMD and the midterm results, both land after the cash close, so today's RTH session is likely to be about positioning ahead of them. Watch whether the gap between YM and NQ widens or closes after 09:30.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._