Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-30

Intel and Amazon drag NQ 2.3%. YM hasn't moved

Rundown · 2026-10-30

The AI selloff has moved from Alphabet to Intel and Amazon, and it is still confined to tech. NQ is −2.30% against Thursday's settle and sits in the bottom fifth of its overnight range. Intel is −25% pre-market on a fourth-quarter outlook well below estimates, and Amazon is −6.8% after an earnings miss and a higher capex plan. ES is −1.03% and RTY −0.60%, but YM is flat (0.00%), the same split as Thursday, when the Russell rose 1% while the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. The dollar is softer (DXY about −0.25%), led by the pound and a firmer yen after the BoJ's hawkish hold. WTI is +2.07% on new Houthi strike claims against Saudi facilities, and gold is −0.98%, below $4,000, as liquidation spreads. The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.98% (US Treasury), −7bp, and has not moved overnight. Quotes are as of about 06:35 ET. The 08:30 employment cost index is the only US data before 09:45. Today is also the last trading day of October.

Overnight

• Against Thursday's settles, about 06:35 ET: ES −1.03% · NQ −2.30% · YM 0.00% · RTY −0.60%. NQ reopened 1.3% below its settle at 18:00 and has kept falling. YM has gone nowhere. This is a tech-earnings move, not a macro one.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 0.62%, all of it below the settle (0.53% below to 1.15% below), and sits in the bottom fifth of that range. NQ has ranged 1.21%, also entirely below its settle (1.29% below to 2.50% below), and also sits in the bottom fifth. YM has ranged 0.62%, from 0.29% above its settle to 0.34% below, and sits mid-range, on the settle. RTY has ranged 0.78% (0.08% above to 0.70% below) and sits near the low.
• Asia took the tech hit hardest. Kospi about −4.9%: a sidecar halted programme trading for five minutes after KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%. Nikkei −2.1%, Shanghai −1.4%. Hang Seng +1.5% was the exception. ASX 200 +0.2%.
• Europe is softer, and Italy and Spain are leading the losses. DAX −0.57%, STOXX 600 −0.27%, CAC 40 +0.06%, FTSE 100 +0.20%, IBEX 35 −0.59%. Inflation data was hot: Italy's October CPI came in at 5.4% y/y against 4.6% expected (Istat), and French inflation rose again. Germany's Q3 GDP grew 0.2% q/q against 0.1% expected, and euro-area Q3 GDP beat.
• The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% on an 8-1 vote (BoJ, 30 October). Board member Takata dissented in favour of a hike to 1.5%. For the first time, the Outlook Report says underlying inflation is broadly consistent with the 2% target. The bank will also more than double the pace of its ETF sales from January 2027. Ueda then played down the idea that the BoJ was declaring victory over inflation.
• Crypto: Binance was hacked overnight. It has put the hit at about $6.3B, with roughly half of that frozen, and has suspended deposits and withdrawals. Bitcoin fell to around $77,000. It is not one of the priority instruments, but it has added to risk-off selling in Asia's session.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY about −0.25%: softer even on a risk-off morning. Thursday took the rates support away. The GDP price index fell sharply and the 10-year fell 7bp. CME FedWatch odds for a December hike dropped to about 75-80% (FXStreet, Kiplinger, Fox Business) from about 84% before the data. We could not get a same-day prediction-market reading.
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.37%, the strongest major. We found no UK-specific catalyst this morning. It is mostly the softer dollar.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.24%, a firmer yen. The BoJ held, but the dissent for a hike and the inflation language keep a December or January hike alive. Risk-off in Asian equities has added a haven bid. Intervention warnings remain the backdrop.
• 6E: EUR/USD +0.20%. Hot Italian and French CPI make it harder for the ECB to rule out hikes, which supports the euro, while French debt worries cap it. Thursday's ECB hold came with a warning that energy prices pose upside risks to inflation.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.25%, a firmer Canadian dollar. Crude up 2% and a softer dollar both help. The Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50% on Wednesday.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.10%. It has held up despite the Kospi crash. Markets expect the RBA to hike next week after a hot CPI.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −0.76% Thursday, +2.07% overnight. WTI has ranged 2.51% overnight, entirely above Thursday's settle (0.42% to 2.93% above), and sits in the upper third. It is holding above $100 and is on course for a fourth straight monthly gain, roughly 15% in October.
• The mechanism. Overnight (29-30 October), Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on several Saudi energy sites: Ras Tanura, the Rabigh refinery and an Aramco facility at Abqaiq. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a drone aimed at the Shaybah field. A vessel also caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said the cause was unknown. Neither event has been shown to cut Saudi output or exports. Hopes for US-Iran talks are still capping gains. Crude is trading claims and reports, not lost barrels.
• GC: −0.50% Thursday, −0.98% overnight. Gold has ranged 1.58% overnight (0.17% above to 1.41% below the settle) and sits in the lower third, below $4,000. Silver is at 11-month lows.
• Why gold is soft. Not because of the dollar or yields: the dollar is lower and the 10-year is flat. Gold is falling alongside equities, which is what forced liquidation looks like: positions sold to raise cash or meet margin as tech losses mount. A metal that falls with a weaker dollar and lower yields is trading positioning, not macro.

Where We Left Off

• Thursday's RTH: S&P 500 −0.30%, Dow −0.25%, Nasdaq Composite −1.38%, Russell 2000 +1.01% (AP; MarketWatch matches all four). The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.38%. The S&P MidCap 400 rose 1.19% and the Dow Transports 0.96%.
• Treasury yields Thursday: 10-year 4.98% (−7bp), 2-year 4.61% (−6bp), 30-year 5.32% (−5bp) (US Treasury, 29 October). This ended a four-day rise in the 10-year.
• The index fell on narrow selling; most stocks rose. Eight of 11 sectors finished higher, and NYSE advancers led decliners by about two to one. Technology fell about 1.75% and communication services about 1.9%; Alphabet −12.6% alone was most of that. Real estate rose about 2%, and health care, staples, utilities and financials each gained more than 1%.
• What carries over: the rotation. Thursday's cash session sold megacap tech and bought everything else. The overnight tape is pricing more of the same: NQ −2.3%, YM flat. Whether that split holds through the open matters more for index traders than any data print today.

Yesterday's Data

• Q3 GDP 3.4% vs 3.2% expected: the fastest in a year, while the GDP price index fell sharply from 6.1%.
• Core PCE +0.3%, in line: gasoline lifted headline PCE 0.5%; real spending stalled and the saving rate fell to 3.8%.
• Jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected: the 4-week average hit a 2026 low.
• Natural gas +80 Bcf vs +75 expected: the first above-normal build in eight weeks.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · Employment cost index Q3, q/q · 0.8% · 0.9% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · ECI wages and salaries Q3, q/q · n/a · 0.9% · USD

09:45 · Chicago PMI, Oct · 56.1 · 58.8 · USD · ES

12:30 · St. Louis Fed's Musalem speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

13:00 · Baker Hughes rig count, oil · n/a · 460 · CL

16:00 · Month-end close · n/a · n/a · ES · NQ · YM · RTY

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Release times from the BLS schedule and MarketWatch's calendar; the Musalem time is from TradingEconomics. Nothing is scheduled at 10:00. US clocks fall back on Sunday, 1 November, a week after Europe's, so the transatlantic timing gap goes back to normal from Monday. Next week: ISM manufacturing on Monday, the US midterm elections on Tuesday, an RBA decision, and October payrolls on Friday, 6 November.

08:30 is the only macro print with any weight. The ECI is the Fed's preferred measure of labour cost. A print at or above the 0.9% prior would restore some of the December hike pricing lost Thursday; a softer one would add to it. Even so, the tape is being set by earnings, not data. The month-end close at 16:00 matters more than usual with NQ futures down about 7% over the past month.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Pre-market as of about 06:43 ET; Thursday's moves close to close.

• AMZN −6.8% pre-market after −4.25% Thursday. Amazon missed on third-quarter EPS ($1.89 against about $1.97 expected) and slightly on revenue ($201.9B), and raised its 2026 capex plan to $220B from $200B. AWS grew 39% to $46B, ahead of estimates, so the miss is about spending, not demand. It is a top-ten Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weight and a Dow member, which makes it the largest single drag on NQ and ES this morning.
• INTC −25.3% pre-market after −3.6% Thursday. Intel beat on the third quarter ($16.5B revenue, $0.52 adjusted EPS) but guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15-16B and adjusted EPS to $0.25 (Intel 8-K), well below the roughly $17B and $0.43 analysts expected. Its CFO expects the PC slowdown to last at least through the first half of 2027. It is a Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 member; it is not in the Dow, which is part of why YM is flat.
• NVDA −2.8% pre-market after −0.8% Thursday. It has no news of its own. As the largest weight in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, it turns an Intel- and Amazon-specific loss into an index-wide one.
• AAPL −1.1% pre-market after +1.5% Thursday. It is the other mega-weight trading lower with no news. It reports next week.
• GOOGL −0.4% pre-market after −12.6% Thursday, its worst day ever by market value. That fall was most of Thursday's Nasdaq loss. It has stabilized overnight.
• MSFT −0.6% pre-market after −0.2% Thursday. It is a Dow member trading close to flat, and is one reason YM is holding.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Thursday's calls. We asked whether NQ's losses would stay in Alphabet or spread. They spread within tech but not beyond it: technology fell 1.75% while eight of 11 sectors rose and the Russell gained 1%. We asked whether the long end would keep rising. It did not: the 10-year fell 7bp to 4.98% after the GDP price index cooled. We asked whether crude's premium would come back. Partly: WTI fell 0.76% on Thursday and is up 2% overnight on the Houthi claims.
• Whether the YM-NQ split holds through the open. A flat YM and a −2.3% NQ say this is still rotation. If YM follows NQ lower after 09:30, selling has broadened beyond tech.
• Whether NVDA leads or lags. At −2.8% with no news of its own, it decides how much of Intel and Amazon reaches ES.
• Whether gold's liquidation stops. Gold falling with the dollar and yields both lower is positioning. If equities stabilize and gold does not, something other than liquidation is driving it.
• Whether the Saudi claims are confirmed. Overnight crude is pricing claims. Confirmed damage at Ras Tanura or Abqaiq would be a supply story; a Saudi denial would take the premium back out.

The Bottom Line

For the second morning running, the overnight story is earnings, not macro. Intel's outlook and Amazon's spending plans have taken NQ down 2.3% while YM sits on its settle, and Thursday's cash session showed the same split as the Russell rose 1%. The dollar is softer, the 10-year is flat after falling 7bp, and the only US print is the 08:30 ECI. Crude is up on Houthi claims and gold is falling with everything else. The session hinges on whether the tech selling stays in tech, and the month-end close at 16:00 is the last reference of October.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._