Calendar › Pending home sales › 2026-10-20

Pending Home Sales -7.3% vs -0.5% Est — All Four Regions Down, -11.3% on the Year

Fundamentals · 2026-10-20

Pending home sales -7.3% m/m in September vs -0.5% consensus (TradingEconomics), after +0.3% in August; -11.3% y/y, from -4.7% in August; declines in all four regions on both measures: West -9.2% m/m, -15.0% y/y; South -8.2%, -12.0%; Midwest -6.5%, -8.7%; Northeast -4.2%, -9.4%; every one of the 50 largest metros lower on the year, the best being Nashville at -2.0%; 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.86% in September (Freddie Mac), rising from 6.71% to 7.03% through the month, and 7.40% in the last two weekly readings, the highest since November 2023; Yun: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." Next release 18 November.

What It Changes

• Contracts fell off a cliff. A 7.3% monthly drop against a 0.5% expected dip is a miss of 6.8 percentage points, and the annual decline more than doubled to 11.3% from 4.7%.
• Closings have further to fall. Contracts lead closings by one to two months, and existing-home sales in September were down only 2.2% on the year. A 9.1-point gap between contracts and closings points to weaker October and November existing-home sales.
• No region and no large metro escaped. Last month the tenth-best of the 50 largest metros was up 0.2% on the year; this month the best was down 2.0%.
• This is the rate channel, and it is getting stronger. The 30-year mortgage rate has risen 74bp since the end of August, to 7.40% (Freddie Mac), and today's housing starts showed single-family permits at their lowest since March 2023. Housing is where tight policy is landing.

Impact

• USD — Slight bearish — a large housing miss takes a little from the hike case, but pending sales rarely moves the dollar, and an October 28 hike was priced at only about 14-15% in this morning's Open.
• The release came at 10:00, after the cash open, on a morning driven by chips, oil and earnings.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish for RTY — homebuilders, mortgage lenders and building-products names sit disproportionately in small caps, and falling contracts mean fewer closings and fewer mortgages ahead.
• ES, NQ and YM have little direct exposure to existing-home volumes.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no direct path from a housing-contracts print to gold.

Inside The Number

Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September from August, and 11.3% from September 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors. Consensus was -0.5% (TradingEconomics; The Open carried the same), so this is a miss of 6.8 percentage points. August's +0.3% was the prior.

NAR put the cause in its first sentence of comment. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year rate rose through the month, from 6.71% on 3 September to 6.95% on 17 September and 7.03% on 24 September, for a September average of 6.86%, up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% in September 2025. It has since reached 7.40% on 8 and 15 October, the highest weekly reading since 16 November 2023 (7.44%). Contracts signed in September were signed into the steepest part of that rise.

The breadth is complete. All four regions fell on the month and on the year. The West fell most, -9.2% m/m and -15.0% y/y, followed by the South (-8.2%, -12.0%), the Midwest (-6.5%, -8.7%) and the Northeast (-4.2%, -9.4%). In August the South and West had risen (+2.3% and +3.0%); both turned into the two largest declines. The Northeast fell by the same 4.2% as in August.

The metro list makes the point more sharply. NAR lists the ten of the 50 largest metros with the smallest annual declines, using Realtor.com data. Every one is negative. The best was Nashville at -2.0%, then Hartford at -2.1% and San Francisco at -3.5%; the tenth, San Antonio, was -7.1%. A month ago the tenth-best metro was up 0.2%. So none of the 50 largest metros had more contracts signed this September than last.

Contracts are now running well ahead of closings on the way down. Existing-home sales in September fell only 2.2% on the year, to a 3.99 million rate. Contracts are down 11.3%. Because a contract usually closes within one or two months, the September contract decline is a read on October and November closings. In August the gap was 3.5 points (contracts -4.7%, closings -1.2%); it is now 9.1 points.

Yun also offered a reason the rise may slow. "Given that mortgage rates have already risen much more than the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate hikes, mortgage rates could be topping out," he said, while adding that "increasing energy prices and the resulting inflationary pressure are highly uncertain." He pointed to few distressed sales holding prices steady, and said buyers and sellers "may simply be holding back."

The narrative point: the 17 September brief said contracts were falling faster than closings and that closings had room to fall. September closings did fall to the year's slowest pace, and contracts have now fallen much faster again. With the 30-year rate at 7.40% in October, higher than in any week of September, there is no sign yet in the rate data of the relief Yun suggests.

The Internals

Measure · September · August · Change in pace · Read

National, m/m · -7.3% · +0.3% · 7.6 points weaker · Miss of 6.8 points vs -0.5% est

National, y/y · -11.3% · -4.7% · 6.6 points weaker · More than doubled

Existing-home sales, y/y · -2.2% · -1.2% · 1.0 point weaker · Closings lag contracts

Contracts minus closings, y/y · -9.1 points · -3.5 points · Gap widened · Points to weaker closings

Mortgage rates through the signing window, Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed:

Week of · Rate · Change

27 August 2026 · 6.66% · n/a

3 September 2026 · 6.71% · +5bp

10 September 2026 · 6.76% · +5bp

17 September 2026 · 6.95% · +19bp

24 September 2026 · 7.03% · +8bp

1 October 2026 · 7.28% · +25bp

8 October 2026 · 7.40% · +12bp

15 October 2026 · 7.40% · 0bp

Regional And Metro Detail

Region · September m/m · August m/m · September y/y · Read

West · -9.2% · +3.0% · -15.0% · Largest decline and largest swing

South · -8.2% · +2.3% · -12.0% · Second-largest swing from August

Midwest · -6.5% · -1.6% · -8.7% · Fall quadrupled

Northeast · -4.2% · -4.2% · -9.4% · Smallest monthly fall, second month at -4.2%

The ten of the 50 largest metros with the smallest annual declines (NAR, using Realtor.com Economics data):

Rank · Metro · y/y

1 · Nashville, TN · -2.0%

2 · Hartford, CT · -2.1%

3 · San Francisco, CA · -3.5%

4 · San Jose, CA · -4.6%

5 · Buffalo, NY · -5.6%

6 · Richmond, VA · -5.8%

7 · Austin, TX · -5.9%

8 · Pittsburgh, PA · -6.2%

9 · Memphis, TN · -6.3%

10 · San Antonio, TX · -7.1%

• These are the best ten, not the worst. The other forty of the largest metros fell by 7.1% or more on the year.
• Two Bay Area metros are in the top four, and two Texas metros in the top ten, but none of them rose.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed pending home sales at 10:00 with a -0.5% consensus and a 0.3% prior, tagged to RTY, and called housing starts at 08:30 "the only release that is likely to move anything."
• The print broke the consensus badly: -7.3%. Together with this morning's single-family permits at their lowest since March 2023, both of today's housing releases pointed the same way.

What This Sets Up

• Next release: Wednesday 18 November, for October.
• Confirms the slump: another decline in October, which would be likely with the 30-year rate at 7.28-7.40% through the first half of the month, and existing-home sales for October falling toward the year-on-year pace of contracts.
• Breaks it: a rebound in contracts despite October's higher rates, which would suggest September's drop was partly timing.
• Watch the gap between contracts and closings. At 9.1 points it is nearly three times August's 3.5; if closings stay near -2% on the year while contracts run near -11%, one of the two series is wrong.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Pending Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors, measuring signed contracts on existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. A sale counts as pending when the contract is signed but the sale has not closed; most close within one or two months. The index is based on a sample covering about 40% of multiple listing service data each month, with an index of 100 equal to the average contract activity in 2001. NAR now publishes the release as monthly and yearly % changes, nationally and for four regions, plus a list of metro areas drawn from Realtor.com data.
• Why it matters: It is the earliest read on existing-home sales, which are the large majority of US home purchases. With mortgage rates at their highest since 2023 and the Fed weighing another hike, it shows how quickly higher rates are reaching home buyers.
• How to read it: Contracts lead closings by one to two months, so a decline today shows up in existing-home sales next month and the month after. The monthly change is volatile; the yearly change and the gap against existing-home sales are steadier guides. NAR does not publish an index level in the release, so compare changes rather than levels.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._