Calendar › Conference Board consumer confidence › 2026-10-27

Consumer Confidence Jumps 7.5 to 91.7 vs 81.0 Est — September Revised Up 2.3 Points

Fundamentals · 2026-10-27

Consumer Confidence 91.7 in October (vs 81.0 est), up 7.5 from a September revised to 84.2 from 81.9; Present Situation 120.4, +8.6; Expectations 72.6, +6.9, still 7.4 points below the 80 recession-signal threshold; net current business conditions +3.6%, up 4.8 ppts from negative; labour market differential +5.3%, up 2.4 ppts; net expected business conditions -3.0%, net expected jobs -11.1%, net expected income +6.7%, all three better; average 12-month inflation expectations 5.8%, down from 6.1%; planned durable goods and services spending lower; survey period 1-21 October.

What It Changes

• The beat is real but smaller than it looks. 91.7 against an 81.0 consensus is a 10.7-point surprise, but the consensus was set off September's first print of 81.9. September was revised up 2.3 points to 84.2, so October's actual gain is 7.5.
• The rebound tracks gasoline. The Conference Board ties the recovery directly to pump prices easing from September to October, and the drivers are the ones fuel prices hit: business conditions and inflation expectations.
• Expectations are still in recession-signal territory. 72.6 is better than September, but the Conference Board itself says it only "partially" reverses three monthly declines, and consumers planned less spending on durable goods and services.
• For the Fed, it trims one risk without adding another. Average inflation expectations fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, which helps the hawks less than September did, while still-high expectations and firmer current conditions give no reason to stop tightening. Tomorrow's decision is priced at about 10% for a hike, and nothing here moves that.

Impact

• USD — Slight bullish — a big headline beat and firmer views of current conditions support the growth side of the December hike pricing, held at 75-80% in this morning's Open.
• The lower inflation-expectations reading cuts the other way, so the read is slight rather than outright.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bullish — better confidence supports consumer earnings, but planned spending fell, and this week's index moves are set by chips, megacap earnings and the Fed.
• RTY has the most direct consumer exposure, and the gap between rising confidence and falling spending plans is sharpest for the domestic names it holds.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — a firmer consumer leans toward the hike case and real yields, though lower inflation expectations soften the effect.

Inside The Number

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 (1985 = 100) in October, against an 81.0 consensus (TradingEconomics). September was revised to 84.2 from a first-reported 81.9, which the Conference Board describes as "a slight upward revision". At 2.3 points, it is larger than that suggests. Against the first print, October is 9.8 points higher. The survey ran 1-21 October.

Both sub-indexes recovered. The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 to 120.4, and the Expectations Index rose 6.9 to 72.6. In September, on the first print, they fell 7.9 and 5.9, so October roughly reverses the September drop rather than adding to it. The Conference Board says the Expectations rebound "only partially" reverses three consecutive monthly declines.

Gasoline is the story the Conference Board tells. "The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October," said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist. He added that confidence "remained on the long-term downward trend that's persisted over the past few years." Write-in responses still centred on prices: mentions of food and groceries, and of oil and diesel, rose. Mentions of war and conflict eased for a second month, while mentions of jobs as a concern "ticked up".

Current conditions moved back to positive. Net views of current business conditions rose 4.8 ppts to +3.6%, after turning negative in September for the first time since September 2024. The labour market differential, jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get", improved 2.4 ppts to +5.3%. That came entirely from more people saying jobs are plentiful (26.7% from 24.3%); the share saying jobs are hard to get was unchanged at 21.4%.

Expectations improved on all three components. Net expected business conditions rose 5.7 ppts to -3.0%, mainly because fewer people expect conditions to worsen (20.7% from 25.2%). Net expected jobs rose 1.8 ppts to -11.1%, still well negative. Net expected income rose 3.5 ppts to +6.7%, as the share expecting an income decline fell to 12.0% from 14.9%.

The spending plans are the soft part. Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. Planned purchases of autos and homes declined slightly on a six-month average, and planned electronics purchases fell by more than 1%. The vacation share fell to 43.3% from an upwardly revised 44.2%. McCormick linked this to "higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers' purchasing power." Average 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, still high.

The narrative point: this is a fuel-price rebound in a confidence series that is still trending down. The headline beat is real, but about a fifth of the consensus miss is the September revision, expectations remain 7.4 points below the recession-signal line, and consumers say they plan to spend less.

The Internals

Measure · October · September revised · Change · September first print

Consumer Confidence Index · 91.7 · 84.2 · +7.5 · 81.9

Present Situation Index · 120.4 · 111.8 · +8.6 · 109.3

Expectations Index · 72.6 · 65.7 · +6.9 · 63.6

Expectations vs 80 threshold · -7.4 · -14.3 · +6.9 · -16.4

Consensus (TradingEconomics) · 81.0 · n/a · Beat by 10.7 · n/a

Average 12-month inflation expectations · 5.8% · 6.1% · -0.3 ppts · 6.1%

The September revised sub-index levels are implied from the October changes the Conference Board reports.

Current conditions, share of consumers:

Response · October · September revised · September first print · Change from revised

Business conditions good · 21.4% · 18.8% · 18.5% · +2.6 ppts

Business conditions bad · 17.8% · 20.0% · 20.4% · -2.2 ppts

Net business conditions · +3.6% · -1.2% · -1.9% · +4.8 ppts

Jobs plentiful · 26.7% · 24.3% · 23.6% · +2.4 ppts

Jobs hard to get · 21.4% · 21.4% · 21.9% · 0.0 ppts

Labour market differential · +5.3% · +2.9% · +1.7% · +2.4 ppts

Six-month expectations, share of consumers:

Response · October · September revised · September first print · Change from revised

Business conditions improve · 17.7% · 16.5% · 15.9% · +1.2 ppts

Business conditions worsen · 20.7% · 25.2% · 25.4% · -4.5 ppts

Net business conditions · -3.0% · -8.7% · -9.5% · +5.7 ppts

More jobs · 15.2% · 14.7% · 14.0% · +0.5 ppts

Fewer jobs · 26.3% · 27.6% · 28.4% · -1.3 ppts

Net jobs · -11.1% · -12.9% · -14.4% · +1.8 ppts

Income increase · 18.7% · 18.1% · 17.9% · +0.6 ppts

Income decrease · 12.0% · 14.9% · 15.4% · -2.9 ppts

Net income · +6.7% · +3.2% · +2.5% · +3.5 ppts

Net figures for September are computed from the published shares. Every one of the October changes matches the Conference Board's stated change.

What The Consumers Actually Said

• Write-ins: frustration with rising costs; references to prices, food and groceries, and oil and diesel rose; war and conflict mentions eased for a second month but stayed elevated; jobs and employment concerns ticked up slightly.
• By age and income: on a six-month average, only consumers under 35 and households earning $100,000 or more showed rising confidence.
• By generation: Gen X, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation trail Gen Z and Millennials by a widening margin, a divide the Conference Board says has emerged over the past two years.
• By politics: confidence improved across all affiliations, most among Republicans.
• Finances and recession: views of current family finances improved after two weak months; "somewhat likely" remained the most common answer on a US recession in the next 12 months.
• Rates and stocks: consumers still expect higher interest rates over the next year, and more expect stock prices to rise than fall.
• Big-ticket plans: plans to buy autos and homes declined slightly on a six-month average; planned durable goods spending fell across the board, led by electronics.
• Services plans: generally lower, except movies, theatre, live entertainment and sporting events. The top five were restaurants and take-out; streaming, internet and mobile; utilities; health care; and beauty and personal care, which fell from third to fifth.
• Travel: 43.3% plan a vacation in the next six months, down 0.9 ppts; more plan domestic trips and fewer plan foreign ones; hotel and airfare plans moderated.
• One line in the release does not add up. It says 21.4% rated business conditions good, "down from 18.8%". On September's revised figures that is up, not down, and the net change of +4.8 ppts confirms it.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open had this at 81.0 against an 81.9 prior and called it "the one most likely to move anything", reasoning that "a drop in the expectations index would test" December hike pricing, "while a firm reading supports it".
• It came in firm, on both the headline and expectations. On The Open's own framing, that supports December pricing rather than testing it, with the caveat that the 81.9 prior it listed has since been revised to 84.2.

What This Sets Up

• Next release — Tuesday 24 November, 10:00 ET, covering November, the last Tuesday of the month.
• Confirms a rebound: Expectations back above 80 and planned spending stabilizing, which would turn a gasoline bounce into a recovery.
• Breaks it: a fuel-price spike or a softer labour market pulling Expectations back toward the 65-70 range, which would make October a one-month relief rally.
• Watch the October revision. September moved 2.3 points; a revision of that size to October would change the read on the rebound.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, from a monthly online survey run by Toluna. It is a composite of five questions: current business conditions, current employment, and six-month expectations for business conditions, employment and household income. The Present Situation Index uses the first two and the Expectations Index the last three. All are indexed to 1985 = 100. The preliminary results use responses up to a cutoff around the 20th, and the prior month is revised the next month.
• Why it matters: Its questions lean toward jobs and business conditions, so it tracks the labour market more closely than the University of Michigan's survey, which leans toward personal finances and prices. With the Fed weighing whether to keep hiking, it is a read on whether consumers are absorbing the pressure or pulling back.
• How to read it: The headline is a blend that hides more than it shows; the two sub-indexes often move in opposite directions. The Conference Board treats an Expectations reading below 80 as a level that "often signals a recession ahead," so read Expectations against that line. The labour market differential, jobs plentiful minus hard to get, tracks the unemployment rate. Revisions to the prior month can be large, so compare against the revised figure, not the first print.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._