Calendar › Factory orders › 2026-11-03
Factory Orders +1.8% vs 1.2% Est — Aircraft and Refinery Prices Do the Lifting
Fundamentals · 2026-11-03
Factory orders +1.8% m/m vs 1.2% est to $677.2B, up three straight months, after August revised to +0.3% from 0.1%; ex-transportation +1.3%; durable goods revised to +1.9% from the advance 1.8%, to $345.7B; nondurables +1.8% to $331.6B, with petroleum and coal products +5.2% ($3.7B) supplying almost two-thirds of it; non-defence aircraft orders +28.3%; excluding aircraft and petroleum, orders rose about 0.5%; core capital goods orders +0.6% to $88.2B (advance +0.5%), August trimmed to +1.5%; core shipments +1.2% to $86.1B, unrevised; total shipments +1.3% to $668.5B, up 11 of 12 months; unfilled orders +0.9% to $1,623.8B, up 26 of 27 months; inventories +0.4% to $976.0B, up 12 straight; inventories-to-shipments 1.46 from 1.47; next full report Thursday 3 December.
What It Changes
- The 0.6-point beat is two lines. Non-defence aircraft added $5.6 billion and refinery shipments $3.7 billion, together $9.3 billion of the $12.2 billion gain. Everything else rose about 0.5%.
- The refinery line is price, not volume. Census data are not inflation-adjusted, and petroleum and coal shipments are up about 45% on September 2025 with crude still carrying a war premium.
- Core capex was nudged up, not changed. Core orders were revised to +0.6% from +0.5%, and core shipments held at +1.2%, so the equipment investment picture from the 27 October advance report stands.
- For the Fed, this adds nothing that JOLTS did not already say louder at the same minute. Most of it was known from the advance durable goods report.
Impact
- USD — Mixed — a headline beat built on aircraft and oil prices, released at the same minute as a JOLTS print that beat by far more.
- Any dollar move at 10:00 belongs to JOLTS first; this release was mostly known from the advance report a week ago.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bullish — rising core shipments and a growing backlog support factory earnings, and YM carries the most direct exposure through aircraft and machinery.
- Industrial machinery orders rose 7.8% and computers 6.0%, while construction machinery fell 4.7% and turbines and power transmission equipment 1.4%.
- Crude (CL) — Mixed — refinery shipments up 5.2% in a month and about 45% on the year show how much of the energy shock is passing into factory-gate values, but this report reflects September prices, not today's.
- Gold (GC) — Mixed — nothing here moves real yields; the firm JOLTS print at the same time carries the read for gold today.
Inside The Number
New orders for manufactured goods rose $12.2 billion or 1.8% to $677.2 billion in September, against a 1.2% consensus (TradingEconomics), and are up three consecutive months. August was revised up to +0.3% from +0.1%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.3% to $557.4 billion; excluding defence, they rose 2.0%.
Two lines carry the headline. Non-defence aircraft and parts orders rose 28.3% to $25.3 billion, about $5.6 billion, as the advance report showed last week. On the nondurable side, which Census sets equal to shipments, orders rose $5.8 billion or 1.8% to $331.6 billion, and Census names the driver: petroleum and coal products, up $3.7 billion or 5.2% to $75.0 billion, rising in eight of the last nine months. Petroleum refineries alone rose 5.6%. Take aircraft and petroleum out and orders rose about $2.9 billion, or 0.5%. That is a respectable month, but it is not a 1.8% month.
The refinery line is a price story. On unadjusted data, petroleum and coal shipments were $77.1 billion in September against $53.3 billion a year earlier, up about 45%, and are up 19.9% year to date. Factories did not refine 45% more fuel; the value of what they refined rose with crude. Outside petroleum, nondurable shipments rose about 0.8%, led by chemicals (+2.0%) and pharmaceuticals (+1.7%), with food up 0.2%.
Core capex was confirmed with a small upgrade. Non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6% to $88.2 billion, up from the 0.5% in the advance report, after August was trimmed to +1.5% from +1.6% and July's +0.6%. Over three months that is still about 11% annualized. Core shipments, which feed the equipment line of GDP, held at +1.2% to $86.1 billion, after August was revised up to +0.7% from +0.5%, about 14% annualized over three months. Core unfilled orders rose 0.7% to $318.8 billion, 6.1% above a year ago on unadjusted data.
August's stall was revised away. Last month's brief said total shipments were virtually unchanged in August, ending eight straight gains. August is now +0.1%, and September added 1.3% to $668.5 billion, so shipments are up 11 of the last 12 months. Inventories rose 0.4% to $976.0 billion, a 12th straight gain, slower than shipments, so the inventories-to-shipments ratio eased to 1.46 from 1.47. By stage, materials and supplies rose 0.3%, work in process 0.9%, and finished goods were flat. On the year, work in process is up 7.4% and finished goods are down 0.7%: factories are still building inputs to work through a backlog, not piling up goods they cannot sell.
The Internals
New orders, seasonally adjusted:
Category · September, $B · September · August · July · Consensus
All manufacturing · 677.2 · +1.8% · +0.3% · +0.8% · +1.2%
Excluding transportation · 557.4 · +1.3% · +0.4% · +0.7% · n/a
Excluding defence · 653.0 · +2.0% · +0.4% · +1.0% · n/a
Durable goods · 345.7 · +1.9% · +0.1% · +0.9% · n/a
Durable goods ex-transportation · 225.8 · +0.5% · +0.3% · n/a · +0.5%
Nondurable goods · 331.6 · +1.8% · +0.5% · +0.7% · n/a
Core capital goods (non-defence ex-aircraft) · 88.2 · +0.6% · +1.5% · +0.6% · n/a
Non-defence capital goods · 107.9 · +6.3% · +2.1% · +2.3% · n/a
Defence capital goods · 20.8 · -1.9% · -3.2% · -6.4% · n/a
Consumer goods · 274.8 · +1.8% · 0.0% · +0.7% · n/a
Consumer durable goods · 51.6 · +0.6% · -2.2% · +0.4% · n/a
Consumer nondurable goods · 223.1 · +2.1% · +0.5% · +0.8% · n/a
Information technology · 30.3 · 0.0% · -0.3% · -0.5% · n/a
Construction materials and supplies · 71.5 · +0.2% · -0.7% · +0.8% · n/a
Shipments, backlog and inventories:
Series · September · Change · August · Read
Total shipments · $668.5B · +1.3% · +0.1% · Up 11 of 12 months
Core capital goods shipments · $86.1B · +1.2% · +0.7% · About 14% annualized over 3 months
Unfilled orders · $1,623.8B · +0.9% · +0.6% · Up 26 of 27 months, +9.0% y/y
Total inventories · $976.0B · +0.4% · +0.5% · Up 12 straight months
Inventories-to-shipments · 1.46 · -0.01 · 1.47 · Shipments outran stock
Unfilled orders-to-shipments (durables) · 6.84 · -0.02 · 6.86 · Backlog steady
Advance report against full report, September:
Series · Advance, 27 Oct · Full report
Durable goods orders · +1.8% · +1.9%
Core capital goods orders · +0.5% · +0.6%
Core capital goods shipments · +1.2% · +1.2%
Durable goods shipments · +0.9% · +0.9%
Unfilled orders · +0.8% · +0.9%
Durable inventories · +0.3% · +0.3%
Where The Orders Came From
Industry detail, new orders, seasonally adjusted:
Industry · September, $B · September · August · Read
Non-defence aircraft and parts · 25.3 · +28.3% · +0.3% · About $5.6B of the gain
Petroleum and coal products · 75.0 · +5.2% · +2.1% · About $3.7B of the gain, price-driven
Chemical products · 89.4 · +2.0% · +0.6% · Pharmaceuticals +1.7%
Industrial machinery · 5.7 · +7.8% · -6.2% · Up 40.7% year to date
Computers · 2.0 · +6.0% · +1.9% · Small line, strong month
Electronic components · 6.1 · +2.4% · +5.1% · Third straight gain
Iron and steel mills · 18.1 · +2.4% · +2.1% · Primary metals +0.4%
Defence aircraft and parts · 6.2 · +5.8% · +2.3% · Defence capital goods still -1.9%
HVAC and refrigeration equipment · 7.4 · +2.3% · -0.9% · Up 17.9% year to date
Machinery · 46.1 · +1.5% · +0.9% · Broad gain
Motor vehicle bodies, parts and trailers · 33.7 · +0.1% · +0.5% · Flat
Turbines, generators and power transmission · 5.7 · -1.4% · +4.1% · Up 16.6% year to date
Construction machinery · 4.8 · -4.7% · +6.7% · Gives back August
Ships and boats · 5.6 · -9.9% · -0.7% · Lumpy defence line
Year-to-date figures are unadjusted dollar values against the same months of 2025.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open carried a 1.2% consensus against a 0.1% prior and said factory orders "are mostly already known from the advance durable goods report."
- That held. The beat came from aircraft, already published on 27 October, and refinery shipments that track the crude price. Durable orders excluding transportation came in at +0.5%, matching The Open's 0.5% consensus.
- The Open put JOLTS at 10:00 as the print likely to move anything, and this release did nothing to change that.
What This Sets Up
- Next full report — Thursday, 3 December 2026, with October data; the October advance durable goods report comes first, on Wednesday 25 November.
- The test is the ex-aircraft, ex-petroleum figure. Another month near 0.5% would show steady underlying demand; anything below zero would show the headline gains are price and aircraft only.
- Watch refinery shipments against crude. With crude swinging on the Iran talks in early November, a fall in the petroleum line in October would pull the headline down without any change in real activity.
- Core shipments are the bridge to fourth-quarter equipment investment. A fourth straight gain in October would keep the capex story intact going into the year-end.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Census Bureau's full monthly report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (M3), released at 10:00am ET about a week after the advance durable goods report. It adds nondurable goods to the advance durables data, revises the durables figures, and reports shipments, new orders, unfilled orders and inventories by industry, by market category and by stage of fabrication. The panel covers about 4,700 reporting units at about 3,000 companies and is not a probability sample, so Census cannot state a sampling error.
- Why it matters: It completes the manufacturing picture for the month and revises the advance durable goods figures, including core capital goods orders and shipments, which feed estimates of business equipment investment in GDP. With the Fed holding at 3.75%-4.00% and weighing a December hike, it is a read on whether factory demand is strong enough to keep growth firm.
- How to read it: Everything is in current dollars, seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation, so rising prices inflate the totals; petroleum is the clearest case. Nondurable new orders are set equal to shipments, because most nondurable industries do not carry order backlogs. Aircraft orders swing the total by billions on a handful of contracts, so read ex-transportation and core capital goods first. New orders exclude semiconductors.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._