Calendar › EIA weekly natural gas storage › 2026-10-29
Natural Gas +80 Bcf vs +75 Est — First Above-Normal Build in Eight Weeks
Fundamentals · 2026-10-29
Working gas in storage rose 80 Bcf in the week to 23 October against a 75 Bcf consensus (TradingEconomics), after +77 the week before, unrevised. That is 5 Bcf above the survey, 3 Bcf above the five-year average build of +77, the first week above the seasonal norm in eight, and 5 Bcf above the year-ago +75. Total stocks 3,724 Bcf: 147 Bcf (−3.8%) below last year, from 152, and 38 Bcf (+1.0%) above the five-year average, from 35. South Central +43 against a normal 31 did all of it, with salt +23 against a normal 15, its largest injection of the refill. Every other region built less than normal: East +13 against 16, Pacific flat against 2. Standard error on the net change 1.1 Bcf. Next release 5 November.
What It Changes
- A loose miss, and a break in the run. 80 against 75 expected is a 5 Bcf surprise to the loose side, and the build beat the five-year norm of 77 for the first time in eight weeks.
- The surplus stopped shrinking. Stocks are 38 Bcf above the five-year average, up from 35. The shrinking surplus has been the tight story for seven weeks, and this week it paused.
- The whole beat came from South Central. The region built 43 against a normal 31; the rest of the country built 37 against a normal 44. Salt alone refilled 8 Bcf faster than normal.
- The season ends near 3,800 Bcf. One injection week remains, and at any pace from 77 to 80 Bcf, stocks finish about 3,800 Bcf.
Impact
- Natural Gas (NG) — Bearish — a build 5 Bcf above consensus and 3 above normal, after seven weeks short, takes some of the tightness out of the picture.
- The front month sold straight off the print. In the release minute it fell as far as −1.6% against its 10:29 close, on more than ten times the volume of the minute before, and closed the minute −0.8%. It drifted lower from there: by 10:45 ET it was −1.6% from 10:29. A clear loose surprise with a clear first read, unlike last week's whipsaw.
- The level is a cushion that held this week. At 3,724 Bcf stocks are 38 Bcf above the five-year average and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range". The year-ago deficit narrowed by 5, to 147.
- The tight spot got less tight. South Central salt is now 11.6% below its five-year average, from 14.9%, the biggest single-week improvement in the refill.
- USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.
Inside The Number
Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 80 Bcf in the week ending Friday 23 October, taking total stocks to 3,724 Bcf. Consensus was +75 Bcf (TradingEconomics), and the prior week's +77 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,644 is this week's starting point, and the implied flow equals the net change, so there was no reclassification. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 1.1 Bcf, so the 5 Bcf beat is well outside sampling error.
The seasonal comparison. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,609 Bcf to 3,686 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +77 Bcf. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,796 to 3,871, a +75 Bcf build. This week's 80 is 3 Bcf above the five-year norm and 5 above last year. The run against the five-year build over eight weeks is now −12, −29, −23, −16, −11, −23, −10 and +3 Bcf: seven weeks short, then the first week over.
Both level comparisons moved the loose way for the first time in weeks. Stocks are 38 Bcf above the five-year average (3,686 Bcf), a 1.0% surplus that widened by 3 from 35. They are 147 Bcf below a year ago (3,871 Bcf), a 3.8% deficit that narrowed by 5 from 152.
The beat was all South Central, and the rest of the country was short. EIA publishes each region's year-ago and five-year stock in Bcf, so differencing them against last week's report gives each region's normal build:
- East built 13 Bcf against a five-year normal of 16 and a year-ago 14.
- Midwest built 23 against 24, year-ago 25.
- Mountain built 1 against 2, year-ago 3.
- Pacific was flat against a normal 2, year-ago 5.
- South Central built 43 against 31, year-ago 28. Inside it, salt injected 23 against a normal 15 and nonsalt 19 against 15.
South Central was 12 Bcf over its norm; the four other regions were a combined 7 short. Last week it was the reverse: South Central and the East carried 9 of the 10 Bcf shortfall.
Salt had its best week of the refill. At 274 Bcf, salt has now refilled for four straight weeks after three weeks of draws in September, and the 23 Bcf injection is the largest of the four (+14, +9, +15, +23). It sits 11.6% below its five-year average, from 14.9%, and 18.0% below a year ago, from 21.1%. The salt standard error is 0.7 Bcf. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps, and they are still the tightest part of the system going into winter.
South Central as a whole closed much of its gap. At 1,168 Bcf the region is 2.3% below its five-year average, from 3.4%, and 8.6% below a year ago, from 10.0%. Nonsalt, which carried last week's miss, built 19 against a normal 15 and now sits 0.9% above its five-year average.
Why the build was larger than normal is not in the release. EIA reports storage, not supply or demand. A big South Central injection with the rest of the country short points at the Gulf Coast specifically, but the release cannot say whether that is weaker power burn, lower exports or more supply.
The rest of the country is still above its own history, by less each week. East holds 913 Bcf, 2.4% above its five-year average, from 2.7%; Midwest 1,088 Bcf, 1.9% above, from 2.0%; Mountain 258 Bcf, 4.0% above, from 4.5%; Pacific 297 Bcf, 5.7% above, from 6.5%.
The Internals
The headline against every benchmark:
Comparison · Value · Gap · Read
This week's build · +80 Bcf · n/a · The print
Consensus · +75 Bcf · +5 Bcf · Larger build than expected
Prior week · +77 Bcf · +3 Bcf · Larger build, prior unrevised
Five-year average build, this week · +77 Bcf · +3 Bcf · First week above normal in eight
Same week a year ago · +75 Bcf · +5 Bcf · Above last year
Standard error on the net change · 1.1 Bcf · n/a · A precise print
The gap to the five-year build, eight weeks:
Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Gap
4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About −12 Bcf
11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · −29 Bcf
18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · −23 Bcf
25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · −16 Bcf
2 October · +85 Bcf · +96 Bcf · −11 Bcf
9 October · +67 Bcf · +90 Bcf · −23 Bcf
16 October · +77 Bcf · +87 Bcf · −10 Bcf
23 October · +80 Bcf · +77 Bcf · +3 Bcf
Stock levels:
Measure · 23 October · 16 October · Change
Total working gas · 3,724 Bcf · 3,644 Bcf · +80
Year-ago stocks · 3,871 Bcf · 3,796 Bcf · +75
Deficit to last year · −147 Bcf, −3.8% · −152 Bcf, −4.0% · Narrowed 5
Five-year average stocks · 3,686 Bcf · 3,609 Bcf · +77
Surplus to five-year average · +38 Bcf, +1.0% · +35 Bcf, +1.0% · Widened 3
Regional detail, Bcf:
Region · 23 Oct · 16 Oct · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year
East · 913 · 900 · +13 · 911 · +0.2% · 892 · +2.4%
Midwest · 1,088 · 1,065 · +23 · 1,081 · +0.6% · 1,068 · +1.9%
Mountain · 258 · 257 · +1 · 285 · −9.5% · 248 · +4.0%
Pacific · 297 · 297 · 0 · 315 · −5.7% · 281 · +5.7%
South Central · 1,168 · 1,125 · +43 · 1,278 · −8.6% · 1,196 · −2.3%
South Central salt · 274 · 251 · +23 · 334 · −18.0% · 310 · −11.6%
South Central nonsalt · 894 · 875 · +19 · 945 · −5.4% · 886 · +0.9%
Total Lower 48 · 3,724 · 3,644 · +80 · 3,871 · −3.8% · 3,686 · +1.0%
This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks (regions may not sum to the total because of rounding):
Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build
East · +13 · +16 · −3 · +14
Midwest · +23 · +24 · −1 · +25
Mountain · +1 · +2 · −1 · +3
Pacific · 0 · +2 · −2 · +5
South Central · +43 · +31 · +12 · +28
South Central salt · +23 · +15 · +8 · +16
South Central nonsalt · +19 · +15 · +4 · +12
Total Lower 48 · +80 · +77 · +3 · +75
South Central salt, six weeks:
Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year
18 September · 217 Bcf · −5 · −27.2% · −12.5%
25 September · 213 Bcf · −4 · −27.3% · −15.5%
2 October · 227 Bcf · +14 · −23.1% · −14.0%
9 October · 236 Bcf · +9 · −21.9% · −15.4%
16 October · 251 Bcf · +15 · −21.1% · −14.9%
23 October · 274 Bcf · +23 · −18.0% · −11.6%
Where the injection season ends, on flat paces over the one remaining week to 30 October:
Weekly pace · Basis · End-October stocks
+80 Bcf · This week · About 3,800 Bcf
+77 Bcf · This week's five-year average build · About 3,800 Bcf
+77 Bcf · Four-week average · About 3,800 Bcf
+67 Bcf · Slowest of the last four weeks · About 3,790 Bcf
Sampling precision, from EIA:
Region · Standard error on the net change
East · 0.5 Bcf
Midwest · 0.2 Bcf
Mountain · 0.1 Bcf
Pacific · 0.0 Bcf
South Central · 0.9 Bcf
South Central salt · 0.7 Bcf
South Central nonsalt · 0.6 Bcf
Total Lower 48 · 1.1 Bcf
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed EIA gas storage at 10:30 with a 75 Bcf consensus after 77 Bcf, tagged for NG — The Open. It printed 80 Bcf, 5 above that figure and the same 5 above TradingEconomics, a miss to the loose side.
What This Sets Up
- Next storage report: Thursday, 5 November, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 30 October (EIA). It is the last week of the injection season.
- The read to confirm or break is whether this week was a turn or a blip. A second build at or above normal would say the seven-week tightening is over going into winter; a return to a 10 Bcf shortfall would make this week the outlier.
- Watch South Central salt. A third straight double-digit injection would confirm the refill is catching up; a drop back to single digits would leave it the weak spot into the first withdrawals.
- Watch the East. It has built below normal two weeks running, and it is the region that draws first and hardest when heating demand starts.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report from the US Energy Information Administration, published Thursdays at 10:30am ET. It estimates working gas held in underground storage in the Lower 48 states from Form EIA-912, a sample survey of storage operators, broken into five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt (depleted fields and aquifers).
- Why it matters: Storage is the balance sheet of the US gas market. The weekly change is supply minus demand after production, power burn, heating, industrial use and LNG exports, so a build larger or smaller than expected is the cleanest weekly read on whether the market is loosening or tightening, and it is the release that moves the NG front month most reliably.
- How to read it: Compare the net change with consensus first, then with the five-year average and year-ago builds for the same week, because injections and withdrawals are strongly seasonal. A build above consensus or above normal is loose, and bearish for price; a build below is tight, and bullish. The level against the five-year average shows the size of the cushion, and South Central salt shows how much quick-response capacity is available for cold snaps.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._