Calendar › FHFA house price index › 2026-10-27
FHFA House Prices +0.3% vs 0.2% Est — Annual Rate Slips to 2.4% as July Revised Down
Fundamentals · 2026-10-27
FHFA HPI +0.3% m/m in August (vs +0.2% est, prior +0.3% revised down to +0.2%); +2.4% y/y, down from a revised 2.5% in July (first reported 2.6%); the index is at a record 444.6 (SA, Jan 1991 = 100), with five of nine divisions also at records; divisions ran from New England -0.8% to East South Central +2.1% on the month, and from Mountain +0.5% to East North Central +4.4% on the year; unadjusted, the index fell 0.2%; against August CPI at 3.4%, real house prices are down roughly 0.9% on the year.
What It Changes
- House prices beat by 0.1pp, but July's revision takes most of it back. August's 0.3% sits on a July cut from 0.3% to 0.2%, so the two-month gain is about what last month's release implied.
- The annual rate eased to 2.4%, and that was the base effect this feed flagged a month ago. August 2025 rose 0.43% on the current data, so a 0.32% August 2026 was always going to pull the twelve-month number down.
- Real prices are still falling. 2.4% nominal against 3.4% August CPI is roughly a 0.9% real decline, wider than July's.
- For the rate path it changes nothing. A record nominal level fits the view that policy is not crushing asset prices, but FHFA rarely moves anything, and the Fed decides tomorrow on inflation and labour data, not this.
Impact
- USD — Neutral — a small beat offset by a downward revision, on a low-impact release.
- The Open had a hike tomorrow at about 10% and a December hike at 75-80%; nothing here moves either.
- Case-Shiller printed at the same 09:00 slot and durable goods at 08:30, so no market move this morning can be credited to FHFA alone.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — no direct read-through; housing at a record nominal level is a modest wealth-effect support, but the 10-year at 5.00% (US Treasury, Monday's close) is the housing variable that matters for equities.
- RTY is the most rate- and housing-sensitive of the four, and the read, such as it is, is strongest there.
- Gold (GC) — Neutral — no change to real yields or the rate path; the dollar and tomorrow's FOMC are doing the work for gold.
Inside The Number
FHFA's seasonally adjusted purchase-only index rose 0.3% in August against a 0.2% consensus (TradingEconomics). The unrounded figure is +0.32%, computed from FHFA's data file. July was revised to +0.2% (+0.19%) from a first-reported +0.3%, and FHFA's own release states the revision. On the year the index is up 2.4%, from a revised 2.5% in July. The index level of 444.6 is a new record, above July's revised 443.2.
The annual rate fell for the reason last month's brief gave. The twelve-month rate rises when the month entering the window is stronger than the one leaving it. August 2025 rose 0.43% on the current vintage, against 0.32% for August 2026, so the annual rate lost about 0.1pp. The 29 September brief put that hurdle at 0.38% on the older data; the revision made it higher, not lower. The next comparison is easy: September 2025 fell 0.10%, so any September 2026 gain will lift the annual rate. After that, October 2025 (+0.40%) and November 2025 (+0.65%) are hard comparisons again.
Run-rate measures are close to the annual rate now. The three-month annualized rate is about 2.2%, from about 2.3% for the three months to July on the revised data. The six-month annualized rate jumped to about 1.9% from 1.1%, because February's -0.08% dropped out of the window. All three measures now sit between about 2% and 2.5%. Prices are rising at a steady 2% or so, neither accelerating nor rolling over.
On an unadjusted basis, prices fell. The not-seasonally-adjusted index slipped 0.2% in August (451.3 to 450.5), matching July's unadjusted 0.2% decline. August is past the spring peak, so seasonal adjustment is again what turns the headline positive. The unadjusted annual rate is 2.5%, close to the adjusted 2.4%, so this does not change the read.
Real home values are still falling. August CPI ran 3.4% on the year, so 2.4% nominal appreciation is roughly a 0.9% real decline. September CPI was 3.7%, so the gap is likely to widen when September HPI is published. Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3% in September CPI, but FHFA's purchase prices, which rent measures follow with a lag, are rising more slowly than inflation.
Regionally, the leadership changed hands. East South Central jumped 2.1%, the strongest month of any division, reversing July's -0.8% and setting a record level. New England fell 0.8%, the weakest, and its annual rate halved from 4.3% to 2.4%. Middle Atlantic was flat after two big months; its annual rate fell from 6.0% to 4.3% as a strong August 2025 dropped out. East North Central now leads on the year at 4.4%. The two western divisions are still the drag: Mountain +0.5% and Pacific +1.2% on the year, and both remain below their January 2025 peaks.
The Internals
Metric · August · July · Change · Read
HPI m/m, SA · +0.3% · +0.2% · +0.1pp · Beat 0.2% consensus by 0.1pp
HPI y/y, SA · +2.4% · +2.5% · -0.1pp · Base effect from August 2025
Index level, SA · 444.6 · 443.2 · +1.4 · Record high
HPI m/m, NSA · -0.2% · -0.2% · 0.0pp · Second straight unadjusted decline
HPI y/y, NSA · +2.5% · +2.5% · 0.0pp · Close to the adjusted rate
3-month annualized · 2.2% · 2.3% · -0.1pp · Steady
6-month annualized · 1.9% · 1.1% · +0.8pp · February's drop left the window
Real y/y vs CPI 3.4% · -0.9% · n/a · n/a · Real values still falling
July m/m revision · +0.2% · +0.3% · -0.1pp · Revised down
July y/y revision · +2.5% · +2.6% · -0.1pp · Revised down
The July column for the run-rate measures is computed from the current vintage of FHFA's data file, not from last month's release.
Monthly path, seasonally adjusted, current vintage:
Month · m/m · y/y · Month leaving the y/y window · Its m/m
Mar 2026 · +0.2% · +2.0% · Mar 2025 · +0.1%
Apr 2026 · -0.1% · +2.1% · Apr 2025 · -0.2%
May 2026 · +0.3% · +2.4% · May 2025 · 0.0%
Jun 2026 · 0.0% · +2.4% · Jun 2025 · +0.1%
Jul 2026 · +0.2% · +2.5% · Jul 2025 · 0.0%
Aug 2026 · +0.3% · +2.4% · Aug 2025 · +0.4%
Sep 2026 · 24 Nov · 24 Nov · Sep 2025 · -0.1%
Where Prices Moved
FHFA publishes monthly figures for the nine census divisions. There is no survey commentary and this month's release carries no attributed quote, so the division table is the layer beneath the headline. Figures are computed from FHFA's seasonally adjusted data file.
Division · August m/m · July m/m, revised · July first estimate · y/y · Read
East South Central · +2.1% · -0.8% · -0.5% · +3.9% · Strongest month, record level
West North Central · +0.7% · +0.5% · +0.4% · +3.7% · Record level, second straight gain
West South Central · +0.6% · +0.2% · +0.4% · +1.4% · Record level, slow annual gain
East North Central · +0.5% · +0.1% · +0.1% · +4.4% · Record level, leads on the year
Mountain · +0.3% · -0.8% · -0.8% · +0.5% · Slowest annual gain, below January 2025 peak
Middle Atlantic · 0.0% · +1.3% · +1.5% · +4.3% · Record level, annual rate down from 6.0%
South Atlantic · -0.1% · +0.3% · +0.1% · +1.3% · Below its May peak
Pacific · -0.1% · +0.5% · +0.6% · +1.2% · Below January 2025 peak
New England · -0.8% · +0.2% · +0.3% · +2.4% · Weakest month, annual rate halved
United States · +0.3% · +0.2% · +0.3% · +2.4% · Record level
Six of nine divisions rose on the month. The monthly spread from worst to best is 2.9 percentage points, and the annual spread is 3.9, down from 5.7 a month ago as Middle Atlantic's lead faded. Five divisions and the national index sit at record levels. Mountain and Pacific, the two most expensive regions, are the only divisions still below a peak set in January 2025.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed FHFA at a 0.2% consensus against a 0.3% prior, tagged USD only, and put durable goods and consumer confidence as the day's data before the Fed.
- It printed 0.3%, a tenth above, but the prior was revised down to 0.2%. On a low-impact series in the same slot as Case-Shiller, The Open's framing holds: this was not the number that set the tone.
What This Sets Up
- Next FHFA HPI — Tuesday, 24 November 2026, monthly data through September and quarterly data through the third quarter.
- The base effect turns in the annual rate's favour: September 2025 fell 0.10%, so any positive September 2026 lifts the twelve-month rate above 2.4%.
- A second straight 0.3% would put the three-month pace back near 3%. A negative September, with New England and the western divisions falling, would leave the annual rate stuck near 2.4% and widen the real decline against 3.7% CPI.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index, a weighted repeat-sales index built from purchase transactions on single-family homes with mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because it compares the same properties across successive sales, it avoids the mix-shift problem that distorts median-price measures. The monthly release covers the US and the nine census divisions, and a quarterly report adds state, metro and ZIP-level detail. The data run back to 1991 for the monthly series.
- Why it matters: Housing is the most rate-sensitive sector, so it is where tighter policy shows up first. With the Fed weighing another hike and the 10-year at 5.00%, a housing market still setting nominal records argues that financial conditions are not as tight as the rate level suggests. It is also an input the Fed watches for future shelter inflation, since owners' equivalent rent lags purchase prices.
- How to read it: The headline is the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change. The year-over-year change is less noisy, but it is sensitive to base effects: it rises when the month entering the window is stronger than the month leaving it. The index is limited to conforming mortgages, so it underweights the high end and cash purchases compared with Case-Shiller. Compare the annual rate with CPI to judge whether real home values are rising or falling.
Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.
_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._