Calendar › EIA weekly petroleum status (crude inventories) › 2026-11-04

Crude −0.9M vs 0.9M Build Est — Distillate Drops 3.6M as Demand Jumps 1.75 mb/d

Fundamentals · 2026-11-04

Commercial crude −0.865M to 409.8M in the week ended 30 October (vs +0.9M est (TradingEconomics); API −5.27M), a fifth straight draw, now 2.7% below a year ago, from 1.3%; adjustment −704 kb/d, about −4.9M barrels, so measured flows point to a +4.1M build; exports −1,179 kb/d to 3.68 mb/d, imports flat at 6.37 mb/d; production +11 kb/d to 14.00 mb/d; refinery runs +199 kb/d to 16.73 mb/d, utilization 94.5% (+1.7); Cushing +0.28M to 27.25M; Gulf Coast −0.59M, a fourth straight draw; SPR −0.40M to 282.2M; gasoline −0.222M vs +0.2M est; distillate −3.565M vs −0.1M est, to 99.3M, 11.0% below a year ago; total products supplied 21.96 mb/d, +1,753 kb/d; total commercial stocks −8.18M.

What It Changes

The headline draw is a balancing item, not a flow. Commercial crude fell 0.9 million barrels against a 0.9 million build expected, but EIA's adjustment took out about 4.9 million. Measured flows point to a build of about 4.1 million.
Exports fell and refiners ran harder, and the two nearly cancelled. Crude exports dropped 1.18 million b/d, about 8.3 million barrels kept at home, while refinery runs rose 199 kb/d to 94.5% utilization.
The bullish part is in products. Distillate fell 3.6 million against a 0.1 million draw expected, to under 100 million barrels and 11.0% below a year ago. Total demand jumped 1.75 million b/d, reversing last week's 1 million b/d fall.
It is far short of the API. The API had a 5.3 million draw on Tuesday evening; EIA's 0.9 million draw, flattered by the adjustment, takes most of that signal back.

Impact

Crude (CL) — Mixed — a draw against an expected build and a big distillate draw on strong demand, against an adjustment that hides a measured build and a print far smaller than the API's.
The release barely moved crude: front-month WTI was −0.09% in the release minute against its 10:29 close, −0.17% by 10:35 and −0.10% by 10:45 ET. Brent was −0.14% in the release minute and −0.23% by 10:45.
WTI was already −2.26% against Tuesday's settle at 10:29 ET, before the report, on the political read from the overnight election. This brief does not attribute that move to the report.
Heating oil moved the right way for the distillate draw. December heating oil was +0.30% in the release minute against its 10:29 close, the only one of the four contracts to rise, but it was back to +0.04% by 10:45 ET. RBOB was −0.01% in the release minute and −0.32% by 10:45, with the gasoline draw close to expectations.
USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar.
US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — energy names react at the margin, but there is no index-level read.
Gold (GC) — Neutral — the oil-to-inflation channel runs through crude prices, and the report adds little to a day already driven by the dollar.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 0.865 million barrels to 409.760 million in the week ended 30 October, against a 0.9 million barrel build expected (TradingEconomics). The API had reported a 5.27 million barrel draw on Tuesday evening, against a 2.1 million build expected, so EIA confirmed the direction but not the size. It is the fifth straight EIA draw, after −3.186 million, −8.557 million, −3.061 million and −1.892 million, for about −17.6 million over five weeks. Stocks are now 2.7% below the same week last year, from 1.3%. Including the SPR, total crude fell 1.264 million to 691.9 million, 16.7% below a year ago.

The adjustment made the draw. EIA's crude balancing item printed −704 kb/d, about 4.93 million barrels over the week, after +189 kb/d last week, and it is the largest negative reading in the last seven weeks. The commercial stock change was −124 kb/d; take the adjustment out and measured flows point to +580 kb/d, about a 4.1 million barrel build. The adjustment covers crude EIA cannot match to measured production, trade and refinery runs, so a reading this large means the headline is the least reliable part of this week's report.

Exports fell back. Crude exports dropped 1,179 kb/d to 3.675 mb/d, after last week's 1.4 million b/d jump, and imports were flat at 6.374 mb/d. Net imports rose 1,178 kb/d to 2.699 mb/d. Over seven days the export fall kept about 8.3 million barrels at home. The four-week export average is 4.135 mb/d, now 4.9% below a year ago, against 6.1% above last week.

Production held at 14 mb/d. Domestic output rose 11 kb/d to 14.003 mb/d, after last week's 723 kb/d rebound. Lower 48 production rose 6 kb/d to 13.516 mb/d and Alaska 5 kb/d to 487 kb/d. Output is 352 kb/d above the same week last year. The weekly figure is an estimate that EIA later checks against monthly data.

Refiners ran harder. Crude inputs rose 199 kb/d to 16.725 mb/d, 9.6% above a year ago, and utilization rose 1.7 points to 94.5%, against 86.0% a year ago. The East Coast jumped 7.8 points to 89.5% and the Midwest 4.8 points to 92.9%, and the Gulf Coast rose 1.3 points to 96.1%. The West Coast fell 3.4 points to 91.7% and the Rocky Mountain region 2.8 points to 97.6%.

Regionally, Cushing rebuilt. Cushing rose 0.280 million to 27.250 million after last week's first draw in five weeks; it is 19.2% above a year ago. The Gulf Coast drew 0.585 million to 227.2 million, a fourth straight draw for the export region, and is 4.3% below a year ago. The Rocky Mountain region drew 0.910 million and the Midwest outside Cushing about 0.36 million. The West Coast built 0.614 million and the East Coast 92,000. Alaska crude in transit, which sits outside the commercial total, fell 2.975 million.

Distillate is the line that moved. Stocks fell 3.565 million barrels to 99.259 million, against a 0.1 million draw expected, and are now 11.0% below a year ago, from 8.3% last week. Ultra-low-sulphur diesel fell 2.887 million and high-sulphur distillate, the heating oil grade, fell 203,000. Distillate supplied rose 232 kb/d to 4.439 mb/d, and its four-week average is 8.7% above a year ago. Production was flat at 5.15 mb/d, so the draw came from demand, not from refiners cutting output, even with runs higher.

Gasoline was steady. Stocks fell 222,000 barrels to 209.0 million against a 0.2 million build expected, after last week's 3.9 million build. Gasoline supplied rose 450 kb/d to 8.808 mb/d, giving back most of last week's fall. Gasoline is now 1.4% above a year ago, from 0.7% below. Jet fuel fell 435,000 and propane 1.628 million, while residual fuel built 1.036 million. Total commercial petroleum stocks fell 8.182 million barrels, 5.1% below a year ago.

Demand came back strongly. Total products supplied rose 1,753 kb/d to 21.962 mb/d, more than reversing last week's 1,022 kb/d fall. The four-week average is 21.191 mb/d, 4.2% above a year ago, against 0.2% last week. By product, the four-week averages are gasoline 0.4% below last year, distillate 8.7% above, jet fuel 2.8% below and propane 33.5% above, as propane supplied nearly doubled on the week to 1.44 mb/d. Product exports fell 478 kb/d to 7.196 mb/d. Counting crude and products together, the US was a net exporter of 3.086 mb/d, down 1,753 kb/d on the week.

The SPR drew again. It fell 399,000 barrels to 282.184 million, about 57 kb/d, against 100,000 barrels last week. It is 31.1% below a year ago.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 30 October:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 409.760 · 410.625 · −0.865 · 421.168 · −2.7%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 282.184 · 282.583 · −0.399 · 409.595 · −31.1%

Total crude including SPR · 691.944 · 693.208 · −1.264 · 830.763 · −16.7%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 27.250 · 26.970 · +0.280 · 22.865 · +19.2%

Total motor gasoline · 208.958 · 209.180 · −0.222 · 206.009 · +1.4%

Distillate fuel oil · 99.259 · 102.824 · −3.565 · 111.546 · −11.0%

Ultra-low-sulphur distillate · 88.184 · 91.071 · −2.887 · 101.079 · −12.8%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 41.782 · 42.217 · −0.435 · 41.697 · +0.2%

Propane and propylene · 104.108 · 105.735 · −1.628 · 106.094 · −1.9%

Residual fuel oil · 24.435 · 23.399 · +1.036 · 21.886 · +11.6%

Fuel ethanol · 24.434 · 24.523 · −0.089 · 22.655 · +7.9%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,204.374 · 1,212.556 · −8.182 · 1,269.378 · −5.1%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 8.123 · +0.092 · 8.119 · +0.1%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 107.809 · −0.075 · 104.511 · +3.2%

Of which: Cushing · 27.250 · +0.280 · 22.865 · +19.2%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 227.191 · −0.585 · 237.478 · −4.3%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 24.004 · −0.910 · 23.627 · +1.6%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 42.633 · +0.614 · 47.434 · −10.1%

Alaska in-transit, not in the total · 2.063 · −2.975 · 3.229 · −36.1%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 14,003 · 13,992 · +11 · 13,651

Lower 48 production · 13,516 · 13,510 · +6 · 13,215

Crude imports · 6,374 · 6,374 · −1 · 5,924

Crude exports · 3,675 · 4,854 · −1,179 · 4,367

Net imports · 2,699 · 1,520 · +1,178 · 1,557

Refinery crude inputs · 16,725 · 16,526 · +199 · 15,256

Commercial stock change · −124 · −270 · +147 · +743

Adjustment · −704 · +189 · −893 · +393

Stock change excluding the adjustment · +580 · −459 · +1,039 · +350

The adjustment, seven weeks:

Week ended · Adjustment, kb/d · About, million barrels · Headline change, million barrels

18 September · +215 · +1.5 · +2.97

25 September · −238 · −1.7 · +0.92

2 October · −589 · −4.1 · −3.19

9 October · −308 · −2.2 · −8.56

16 October · +47 · +0.3 · −3.06

23 October · +189 · +1.3 · −1.89

30 October · −704 · −4.9 · −0.87

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Total · 94.5% · 92.8% · +1.7 · 86.0%

East Coast · 89.5% · 81.7% · +7.8 · 93.6%

Midwest · 92.9% · 88.1% · +4.8 · 83.1%

Gulf Coast · 96.1% · 94.9% · +1.3 · 89.2%

Rocky Mountain · 97.6% · 100.4% · −2.8 · 94.9%

West Coast · 91.7% · 95.1% · −3.4 · 73.4%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · Four-week average · vs year ago, four-week

Total · 21,962 · +1,753 · 21,191 · +4.2%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,808 · +450 · 8,639 · −0.4%

Distillate fuel oil · 4,439 · +232 · 4,175 · +8.7%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,728 · +48 · 1,711 · −2.8%

Propane and propylene · 1,440 · +680 · 1,107 · +33.5%

Residual fuel oil · 282 · −90 · 317 · +17.9%

Other oils · 5,266 · +432 · 5,242 · +5.5%

Against consensus (TradingEconomics) and the API:

Series · EIA actual · Consensus · API

Commercial crude · −0.865M · +0.9M · −5.267M

Gasoline · −0.222M · +0.2M · n/a

Distillate · −3.565M · −0.1M · n/a

Against This Morning's Open

The Open carried consensus at a 0.9 million build after last week's 1.892 million draw, and flagged the API's 5.27 million draw as "a large miss against an expected build", with crude lower anyway on the political read.
EIA split the difference. It confirmed a draw, but at 0.9 million rather than 5.3 million, and only because of the adjustment. The market treated it as a non-event: WTI was −0.10% from 10:29 to 10:45 ET, inside a day that was already −2.26% before the report.

What This Sets Up

Next EIA petroleum report: Thursday, 12 November, 12:00 ET, covering the week to 6 November, a day late because of Veterans Day on 11 November.
Scoring last week's two questions. Demand did not soften a second week; total products supplied jumped 1.75 million b/d and the four-week average is now 4.2% above a year ago. Cushing did not keep drawing; it rebuilt 280,000 barrels, so the tightness is still on the Gulf Coast, not at the WTI delivery point.
The adjustment is the read to watch. A −704 kb/d reading tends not to repeat. If it swings back positive next week while exports recover, the measured build in this week's flows will show up in the headline.
Distillate into winter. Stocks are under 100 million barrels and 11.0% below a year ago, with demand 8.7% above. Another large draw would keep the diesel and heating oil side the tightest part of the US balance.

What Is This?

What it is: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, normally released Wednesdays at 10:30am ET. It reports US crude and product inventories, production, imports and exports, refinery runs and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday, from surveys of refiners, terminals, pipelines and importers. Weekly production is an estimate that EIA later checks against monthly data.
Why it matters: Crude has been driven this autumn by Middle East supply disruptions and the Iran war, and this week by the political read from the US election. US inventories show whether the physical market is tightening or loosening at home. Gasoline and distillate stocks also feed directly into pump and diesel prices, which the inflation reports have flagged as some of the sharpest increases.
How to read it: Start with commercial crude against consensus and against the API figure released the evening before. Then check the adjustment, EIA's balancing item: a large adjustment means the headline is not fully explained by measured flows. Read exports and production next, because those are the swing lines. Read Cushing separately, because it is the WTI delivery point. Then read gasoline and distillate with products supplied, which show whether demand or supply moved the stocks. Weekly trade figures swing widely, so use four-week averages for the trend.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._