Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-21

Super Micro lifts chips. Netflix sinks 6%

Rundown · 2026-10-21

Seoul bought the chip names it sold on Tuesday. Super Micro's preliminary quarter came in far above forecasts after Tuesday's close, and the Kospi closed +3.29%, with Samsung +5.67% and SK hynix +5.81% (Korea JoongAng Daily). Quotes are as of 06:32 ET. NQ is +0.35% and has not traded below Tuesday's settle all night, though it has given back most of a 0.95% overnight range and sits in its lower fifth. Netflix is −6.1% pre-market after a soft fourth-quarter outlook, and NQ is higher anyway. YM is −0.06% and RTY −0.17%, so Tuesday's rotation into the Dow and small caps is running the other way this morning. Oil is the second story. December WTI is +2.3%, back above $100, near the top of its overnight range, after more tanker attacks around Hormuz and a large API draw. UK inflation rose to 3.5% against 3.4% expected (ONS). The 10-year closed Tuesday at 5.12% (US Treasury), −3bp, and is about 2bp higher overnight. There is no US data at 08:30. The day's prints are EIA crude at 10:30 and the 20-year auction at 13:00. After the close, Meta and Tesla report.

Overnight

• Against Tuesday's settles, 06:32 ET. ES +0.13% · NQ +0.35% · YM −0.06% · RTY −0.17%. Tuesday the Dow beat the Nasdaq by a full point of %. This morning NQ leads YM by about 0.4 points.
• Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has ranged 0.46% and sits in the lower quarter. Its low is only 0.02% above the settle, so ES has not traded below Tuesday's close. NQ has ranged 0.95% and sits in the lower fifth. It opened about 0.8% higher and its high was 1.13% above the settle. Its low is still 0.18% above the settle. YM has ranged 0.39% and sits in the lower third, with its high and low about 0.2% either side of the settle. RTY has ranged 0.57% and also sits in the lower third. All four opened near their highs and have faded since.
• Asia split on chips versus China. Kospi +3.29%. Foreign investors were net buyers of about 660 billion won after Tuesday's heavy selling. Local analysts credited Super Micro's results and easier oil and rate worries (Korea JoongAng Daily). Kospi 200 futures rose more than 5% intraday and triggered a buy-side sidecar, a five-minute pause in program buying, the first in about two months (as reported in Seoul). Nikkei +0.85%, Hang Seng −0.90%, Shanghai −0.60%. The Bank of Korea decides rates at 21:00 ET tonight.
• Europe is modestly higher. DAX +0.51%, CAC 40 +0.40%, STOXX 600 +0.39%, FTSE 100 flat. Chips have recovered part of Tuesday's drop. London is held back by a hotter inflation print that raises the chance of a Bank of England hike.
• What broke while the US was closed. Three things. Super Micro put preliminary fiscal first-quarter revenue near $19 billion against about $15 billion expected (Seoul Economic Daily). Netflix beat on earnings but guided to slower growth and cut its advertising outlook. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue up about 161% on the year. See Index Movers for all three.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.04%, flat. It fell on Tuesday afternoon on a report that the US and Iran had tentatively accepted a Pakistan and Qatar talks proposal. Iranian officials and US media reports disputed it within hours, and nothing has been confirmed. Overnight, US yields are up about 2bp on the 10-year and 1bp on the 2-year, which has kept the dollar steady.
• 6A is carrying the move: AUD/USD +0.37%, the strongest major. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said the inflation outlook is materially worse than the bank's August forecast. Markets moved to price a real chance of a hike at the 3 November RBA meeting (reported as 40-56%, depending on the source). The pair touched its highest since late September and is holding near the top of its range.
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.10%. UK CPI rose to 3.5% from 3.1%, against 3.4% expected. Core rose to 2.8% and services to 3.7%. Motor fuels drove the increase and were up 29.8% on the year (ONS). The pound's move is small for a print that strengthens the case for a hike. BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 09:00 ET.
• 6E: EUR/USD −0.11%. France is still the weight. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread is near 150bp (Scotiabank, via FXStreet), and the government says it will deploy military forces during protests expected this weekend. We could not confirm the outcome of Tuesday's reported budget vote. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 12:00 ET.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.09%. CAD is only slightly firmer even though December WTI is up 2.3%. On Monday and Tuesday mornings, oil moved CAD more than it is now. There is no Canadian data today.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.06%, flat. The yen did not react to the Kospi rally or to the small rise in US yields.
• Fed odds. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed), and the FOMC decides on 28 October. Polymarket puts an October hike at about 11.5% this morning. CME FedWatch was reported at 16.1% (FXStreet, 21 October). So the range is roughly 11-16%, a little lower than Tuesday's 14-15%. FedWatch puts a December hike at over 90%. The market sees a hike as likely, just not next week.

Energy & Metals

• CL: November expired, December is back above $100. November WTI fell 1.80% on Tuesday into expiry. We could not verify December's settle-to-settle move for Tuesday, so we have left it out. Overnight, December is +2.32% and sits near the top of a 2.55% overnight range. Its low was barely above Tuesday's settle.
• Brent: −0.69% Tuesday, +2.09% overnight. On Tuesday it touched a five-month high before reversing on the unconfirmed US-Iran talks report. Overnight it has made that ground back. Its whole range of 1.88% sits above Tuesday's settle, and it is near the top of it. Kpler counts at least 18 attacks on vessels in two weeks. LSEG reports that attacks have spread beyond Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, which puts Gulf loadings and ship-to-ship transfers at risk. The API showed a 4.93M-barrel crude draw for the week to 16 October against 1.3M expected (TradingEconomics). The EIA's official count is at 10:30.
• The mechanism. Tuesday's drop was a headline discount for a possible settlement. Overnight the market removed that discount, because the talks report was disputed and the attacks have continued. A settlement headline can move crude 2-3% in an hour. The physical news has not improved.
• GC: −0.42% Tuesday, −0.12% overnight. It sits mid-range in a 0.62% overnight range. Its high is 0.17% above the settle and its low 0.45% below it. That makes three sessions lower, including Monday's −0.50%. On Tuesday gold fell while the 10-year fell 3bp and the dollar eased. The question we flagged on Tuesday, why gold is falling against its usual drivers, now has a plausible answer. Oil is pushing inflation expectations up and a December hike is priced as near certain. UK inflation this morning came in hot because of fuel. That is a reading, not a proven cause. The next test is whether gold rises if crude falls back.

Where We Left Off

• Tuesday's RTH: S&P 500 +0.28%, Dow +1.02%, Nasdaq Composite −0.02%, Russell 2000 +1.65% (AP). MarketWatch matches all four. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.13%.
• Treasury yields Tuesday: 10-year 5.12%, 2-year 4.79%, 30-year 5.42% (US Treasury, 20 October). That is −3bp, +2bp and −6bp on the day, so the curve flattened while weak housing data came out.
• It was a defensive rotation, not a risk-off day. Health care led and reached a record, with Eli Lilly +3.49%. Utilities, staples and REITs were also strong. Tech lagged. The Dow's gain was concentrated. AMGN +3.29%, UNH +3.04%, TRV +2.67%, MMM +5.78% and GS +1.03% account for roughly 60% of the Dow's gain by our count from the closes. AAPL −1.00% was the biggest drag on both cap-weighted indices.
• What carries over: Tuesday rewarded everything except tech, and this morning the order has flipped. NQ leads on chips and YM and RTY lag. Tuesday was the second session in a row where the Dow and the Nasdaq moved about a point of % apart, in opposite order each time. The rotation has not settled into a direction. Each day the lead goes to whichever group has the overnight news.

Yesterday's Data

• ADP weekly hiring fell to 18,500 from a revised 26,000, the lowest since late August.
• Housing starts 1.221M vs 1.30M expected. Single-family permits were the lowest since March 2023.
• Pending home sales −7.3% vs −0.5% expected, with all four regions lower.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications, w/e 16 Oct · n/a · −2.7% · RTY

Pre-market · Earnings: AT&T · n/a · n/a · ES

09:00 · BoE Governor Bailey speaks · n/a · n/a · 6B

10:30 · EIA crude stocks, w/e 16 Oct · −0.8M · −8.557M · CL · 6C

10:30 · EIA gasoline stocks · −0.4M · 3.518M · CL

10:30 · EIA distillate stocks · −1.2M · −2.527M · CL

11:30 · 17-week bill auction · n/a · 4.195% · rates

12:00 · ECB President Lagarde speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

13:00 · 20-year bond auction · n/a · 5.420% · USD · GC · ES

After close · Earnings: META, TSLA · n/a · n/a · NQ · ES

Today · Earnings: IBM, time not confirmed · n/a · n/a · YM

21:00 · Bank of Korea rate decision · 3.0% · 3.0% · NQ

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Two calendars (TradingEconomics and TradingCharts) agree that no US release is scheduled at 08:30 or 10:00 today. The AT&T, Meta and Tesla timings come from earnings previews and were not each confirmed with the company.

The US morning is a structure day, and the fulcrum is oil at 10:30. With no 08:30 print, NQ and ES open on the overnight chip story and Netflix. EIA crude at 10:30 is the first scheduled number. The API showed a 4.93M-barrel draw, so a similar draw would confirm a tight market at a time when crude is already near the top of its overnight range. A build would test the overnight gain. The 20-year auction at 13:00 matters because the 10-year is 2bp higher overnight and the long end rallied on Tuesday. Meta and Tesla after the close set the tone for NQ tomorrow, not today.

Index Movers

Ranked by likely index contribution. Tuesday closes, and pre-market moves as of about 06:45 ET.

• NVDA −0.29% Tuesday, +1.9% pre-market. It is the largest weight in both cap-weighted indices and the biggest single support for NQ and ES this morning. It is riding the same Super Micro read as Seoul.
• SPCX −0.11% Tuesday, +8.3% pre-market. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue up about 161% on the year after Tuesday's close. It joined the Nasdaq-100 in July but is not in the S&P 500, so this is an NQ story only. Even after weighting for its small public float, it is one of the larger pre-market contributors to NQ.
• NFLX −1.66% Tuesday, −6.1% pre-market. Third-quarter earnings beat, but Netflix guided to 11.5% fourth-quarter revenue growth and cut its 2026 advertising outlook by $300 million (company results, as reported). It is in both the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 and is the largest pre-market drag on NQ. NQ is higher despite it.
• AAPL −1.00% Tuesday, −0.5% pre-market and MSFT −0.31%, −0.6%. The second- and third-largest weights are both lower this morning. Together with Netflix, they explain why NQ has faded from its open.
• SMCI +1.15% Tuesday, +12.0% pre-market. Preliminary revenue came in near $19 billion against about $15 billion expected (Seoul Economic Daily). It is a small S&P 500 weight and barely moves the index directly. It matters as the signal for AI-server demand that moved the Kospi and the chip names.
• The Dow's Tuesday gain is not getting help this morning. AMGN, UNH, TRV, MMM and GS drove about 60% of the Dow's gain on Tuesday. UNH and AMGN are flat pre-market. META −1.59% Tuesday, its fifth straight decline according to Investrade, is flat pre-market ahead of its results.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether YM's lead would survive the morning earnings. It did. The Dow rose 1.02% while the Nasdaq was flat. We asked whether the chip rebound would last a second session. It did not in New York. NVDA fell 0.29% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.13%. Seoul then revived it overnight. We asked whether gold would keep falling against its usual drivers. It did, −0.42% with the 10-year down 3bp. We could not confirm the result of the French budget vote.
• Whether NQ holds above Tuesday's settle. It has not traded below it all night despite Netflix. If NQ trades below it after the cash open, the overnight chip rally has failed. If NQ holds above it, the Super Micro read is carrying into New York.
• Whether the rotation reverses or splits. If YM and RTY stay below their settles while NQ holds up, Tuesday's move into defensives and small caps was a one-day rotation. If all four end higher, the overnight chip news is lifting the whole market, not just tech.
• EIA at 10:30 against crude near its overnight high. A draw near the API's 4.93M keeps the supply story intact. A build, or a confirmed talks headline, is what moved Brent 3% intraday on Tuesday.
• Whether gold rises if oil falls. If gold rises when crude falls, the oil-to-inflation link is the driver. If gold keeps falling either way, something else is going on.
• The pound after Bailey at 09:00. GBP/USD has moved only 0.1% on a 3.5% inflation print. Hawkish remarks from Bailey are the event that would test that small reaction.

The Bottom Line

Seoul reversed Tuesday's chip selloff because Super Micro gave the AI-demand story a strong number, and that is enough to hold NQ above its settle despite a 6% drop in Netflix. Tuesday's winners, the Dow and small caps, are the laggards this morning. The leadership changes each day with the overnight news. Oil has made back Tuesday's talks-headline drop and sits near its overnight high into the EIA report. Gold is still falling as oil pushes inflation expectations up. With no 08:30 print, the first scheduled number is crude at 10:30, and the main test is whether NQ holds above Tuesday's settle after the open.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._