Calendar › New home sales › 2026-10-27
New Home Sales 676K vs 650K Est — Buyers Held Up Through the Yield Spike
Fundamentals · 2026-10-27
New single-family home sales 676,000 SAAR in September vs 650,000 est, -0.6% (±13.8%) from an August revised to 680,000 from 684,000, and -5.3% (±12.5%) on the year; July revised up to 647,000 from 643,000; homes for sale 476,000, -1.0% (±0.9%), a statistically significant fall to the lowest in 13 months; months' supply 8.4 from 8.5; median price $400,400, +3.9% m/m and -3.9% y/y, after August was revised down to $385,400 from $393,700; average price $472,800, -6.7% y/y (±6.6%), statistically significant; completed homes for sale 111,000, another 13-month low; not-started homes for sale 115,000, a 13-month high; no regional move statistically significant. Next release 25 November.
What It Changes
- The rate shock did not break new home demand. September was the first month of contracts signed with the 10-year above 5%, and sales held at 676,000, statistically unchanged from August and 26,000 above consensus.
- August held on revision. It moved only 4,000, to 680,000, so last month's jump was not a one-month spike. The three-month average is about 668,000, level with the 669,000 for the three months to August.
- The supply picture keeps tightening. Homes for sale fell 1.0%, one of only two statistically significant changes in the release, and finished homes for sale fell to another 13-month low. Builders are carrying less unsold stock, not more.
- Prices are still the lever. The average price is 6.7% below a year ago, a significant fall, and the median is 3.9% lower. Buyers are signing, but at lower prices than a year ago.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — housing demand holding through 5% yields is one more sign that policy is not yet biting where it should first, which supports the December hike pricing held at 75-80% in this morning's Open.
- It printed alongside Conference Board confidence at 10:00, which beat by far more, so the dollar's 10:00 move belongs mostly to that release.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — steady sales and shrinking spec stock are good for homebuilders, but strong data keeps the pressure on yields, which is what has driven the rate-sensitive indices.
- RTY has the most direct exposure, through homebuilders and regional banks, and YM through Home Depot; both sit on the same trade-off between steady demand and higher rates.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — another firm US print keeps real yields supported, though FOMC positioning dominates gold this week.
Inside The Number
Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September, against a 650,000 consensus (TradingEconomics). That is 0.6% below August's revised 680,000 and 5.3% below September 2025's 714,000. Census puts a ±13.8% confidence interval on the monthly change and ±12.5% on the annual one; both include zero, so neither change is statistically significant.
The revisions were small this time. August was revised down 4,000 to 680,000 from 684,000, and July up 4,000 to 647,000 from 643,000. June now stands at 680,000. Census says the preliminary estimate is revised by about 6.7% on average; August moved 0.6%. That matters because last month's brief flagged August's beat as "as exposed to revision as July was". It held.
Where 676,000 sits. It is the third-highest rate of 2026, behind June and August at 680,000, and the sixth-highest of the 13 months in the release. The 2026 average through September is about 647,000. Not seasonally adjusted, 56,000 homes sold in September, and year-to-date sales are 506,000 against 521,000 in 2025, -2.9% (±4.8%), flat statistically.
Homes for sale fell, and that change is significant. Seasonally adjusted homes for sale were 476,000, down 1.0% (±0.9%), the lowest in the 13 months tabled and 2.3% below a year ago. Months' supply eased to 8.4 from 8.5, against 8.2 a year ago. The composition kept shifting toward earlier stages: completed homes for sale fell to 111,000, the lowest in the table and down from 122,000 a year ago. Not-started homes for sale rose to 115,000, the highest in the table. Homes under construction for sale fell to 250,000, the lowest since December. The median completed home has been on the market 3.0 months, not adjusted, against 3.1 in August and 2.4 a year ago.
Fewer buyers bought early. Of September's 676,000 sales, 214,000 were homes under construction and 82,000 had not been started, together 44% of sales before completion. That is little changed from August's revised 45%, but August was first reported at 48%, so the shift toward pre-sales last month's brief described was smaller than it looked. Completed-home sales were 380,000, against 428,000 a year ago.
Prices recovered on the median, and August was revised down. The median price was $400,400, up 3.9% on the month and down 3.9% on the year, neither significant. August's median was revised to $385,400 from $393,700, the lowest in the 13 months, so part of September's monthly gain is a lower base. The average price was $472,800, up 0.4% on the month and 6.7% below a year ago; that annual fall just clears its ±6.6% interval, the other significant change in the release. The price mix explains the gap: homes at $1 million and over were 4% of sales for a second month, against 6% a year ago, which pulls the average down harder than the median.
The regions swung, but none of it is significant. The West rose 21.4% to 142,000, the Northeast 28.0% to 32,000, the South fell 6.6% to 413,000 and the Midwest 7.3% to 89,000. Every monthly and annual regional change sits inside its confidence interval. The West, the weak region in last month's report, is still 17.4% below a year ago, but that no longer clears the bar.
The Internals
Headline measures, seasonally adjusted:
Measure · September · August revised · Change · Year ago · vs year ago · Significant
New homes sold, SAAR · 676,000 · 680,000 · -0.6% (±13.8%) · 714,000 · -5.3% (±12.5%) · No, no
Homes for sale · 476,000 · 481,000 · -1.0% (±0.9%) · 487,000 · -2.3% (±4.0%) · Yes, no
Months' supply · 8.4 · 8.5 · -1.2% (±14.7%) · 8.2 · +2.4% (±14.1%) · No, no
Median price · $400,400 · $385,400 · +3.9% (±6.2%) · $416,800 · -3.9% (±8.9%) · No, no
Average price · $472,800 · $470,800 · +0.4% (±6.1%) · $506,800 · -6.7% (±6.6%) · No, yes
Consensus for sales · 650,000 · n/a · Actual beat by 26,000 · n/a · n/a · n/a
Revisions:
Measure · First reported · Now · Revision
August sales · 684,000 · 680,000 · -4,000
July sales · 643,000 · 647,000 · +4,000
June sales · 672,000 · 680,000 · +8,000
August median price · $393,700 · $385,400 · -$8,300
August average price · $478,700 · $470,800 · -$7,900
August share sold before completion · 48% · 45% · -3 points
Sales by region, SAAR:
Region · September · August revised · Change · vs year ago · Significant
Northeast · 32,000 · 25,000 · +28.0% (±51.6%) · +10.3% (±51.9%) · No, no
Midwest · 89,000 · 96,000 · -7.3% (±33.5%) · -8.2% (±31.9%) · No, no
South · 413,000 · 442,000 · -6.6% (±17.0%) · -0.7% (±16.9%) · No, no
West · 142,000 · 117,000 · +21.4% (±29.4%) · -17.4% (±29.0%) · No, no
Sales and homes for sale by stage of construction, seasonally adjusted:
Stage · Sold, September · Sold, August · Sold, year ago · For sale, September · For sale, August · For sale, year ago
Not started · 82,000 · 65,000 · 70,000 · 115,000 · 112,000 · 103,000
Under construction · 214,000 · 239,000 · 216,000 · 250,000 · 257,000 · 262,000
Completed · 380,000 · 376,000 · 428,000 · 111,000 · 112,000 · 122,000
Total · 676,000 · 680,000 · 714,000 · 476,000 · 481,000 · 487,000
Share of homes sold by price, not adjusted:
Price band · September · August · September 2025 · 2025 annual
Under $300,000 · 20% · 23% · 23% · 18%
$300,000 to $399,999 · 31% · 30% · 23% · 28%
$400,000 to $499,999 · 19% · 20% · 20% · 18%
$500,000 to $599,999 · 13% · 9% · 12% · 12%
$600,000 to $799,999 · 10% · 11% · 12% · 13%
$800,000 to $999,999 · 4% · 3% · 4% · 4%
$1,000,000 and over · 4% · 4% · 6% · 6%
The sales rate over 13 months, SAAR, current vintage:
Month · Sales · Months' supply
September 2025 · 714,000 · 8.2
October 2025 · 652,000 · 9.0
November 2025 · 757,000 · 7.7
December 2025 · 723,000 · 7.9
January 2026 · 576,000 · 9.9
February 2026 · 630,000 · 9.3
March 2026 · 659,000 · 8.7
April 2026 · 641,000 · 9.0
May 2026 · 636,000 · 9.2
June 2026 · 680,000 · 8.5
July 2026 · 647,000 · 8.9
August 2026 · 680,000 · 8.5
September 2026 · 676,000 · 8.4
Where The Sales Came From
The builder's side keeps improving. Completed homes for sale, the finished spec stock that costs a builder every month it sits, have fallen from 128,000 in January to 111,000, the lowest in the 13 months tabled and 9% below a year ago. Total homes for sale fell by a statistically significant 1.0%. A builder with less finished stock has less reason to cut prices to move it.
The pipeline is shifting to homes not yet begun. Not-started homes for sale rose to 115,000, the highest in the table, while homes under construction for sale fell to 250,000, the lowest since December. Sales of not-started homes rose to 82,000 from 65,000. Builders appear to be starting fewer homes on speculation and selling more before breaking ground.
Prices are still how volume is being bought. The average price is down $34,000 on the year, a statistically significant fall, and the median is down $16,400. The release does not report incentives or mortgage rate buydowns, which is how builders typically compete when rates are high, so the price data is the only direct evidence here. The $300,000 to $399,999 band was 31% of sales against 23% a year ago, while homes over $600,000 were 18% against 22%.
The South still carries the national number. At 413,000, it is 61% of sales, though it fell 6.6% on the month. The West's rebound to 142,000 is the largest in the release, after a weak August, but none of the regional moves is statistically significant.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open tabled new home sales at 10:00 with a 650K consensus and a 684K prior, tagged USD only, and put consumer confidence as the 10:00 release most likely to move anything.
- Both held. Sales came in at 676K, above consensus and close to an August revised to 680K, and on a day when confidence beat by 10.7 points at the same minute, housing was not what set the 10:00 move.
What This Sets Up
- Next release — Wednesday 25 November, 10:00 ET, covering October.
- Whether demand holds a second month at 5% yields. September held; October is the next test, and a fall back toward 640,000 would say September was buyers locking in before rates rose further.
- Whether finished stock keeps falling. Completed homes for sale at 111,000 are a 13-month low; a move back above 120,000 would say the spec overhang is rebuilding.
- Whether prices stabilize. If the average price holds near $470,000 and sales stay near 670,000, builders are still buying demand with price; firmer prices at the same volume would mean demand is real.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Census Bureau and HUD's joint monthly survey of new single-family home sales, released around the 25th at 10:00 ET. A sale is recorded when a deposit is taken or a sales agreement is signed, not at closing, which makes it the most forward-looking of the housing demand series. The sample is drawn mainly from building permits. The release also reports homes for sale, months' supply, median and average prices, regional sales, and sales and homes for sale by stage of construction. Release CB26-174, covering September 2026.
- Why it matters: New home sales capture the marginal buyer at current mortgage rates, and new construction is the part of housing most exposed to the rate path. With the Fed tightening and the 10-year at 5%, this is the series where higher rates would show up first in housing demand.
- How to read it: Check the confidence interval before the headline: Census publishes a 90% interval on every change, and a monthly move of less than about ±15-20% is usually not statistically significant. Revisions are large, about 6.7% on average, so the prior month often changes the story. Months' supply divides homes for sale by the sales rate; roughly 6 is a balanced market. The average price moves with the mix of homes sold, so read it alongside the price-band table, and trust the median more.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._