Calendar › JOLTS job openings › 2026-11-03
JOLTS 7.52M vs 7.10M Est — Openings Highest Since May, Quits Jump to 2.1%
Fundamentals · 2026-11-03
Job openings 7,523,000 in September (vs 7.10M est, prior 7,190,000 revised up 111,000 from 7,079,000), +333,000 and a 4.5% rate, the highest level since May; hires +131,000 to 5,402,000 (3.4%), the most since March; total separations +144,000 to 5,319,000 (3.3%); quits +321,000 to 3,365,000 at 2.1%, the highest level and rate since March 2025, with accommodation and food services +197,000; layoffs and discharges -127,000 to 1,641,000 at 1.0%, the lowest since March 2025; hires minus separations +83,000; state and local government excluding education openings +104,000, the only significant industry move; August layoffs revised up 127,000, erasing last month's 17-month low; West openings +244,000; next release Tuesday 1 December.
What It Changes
- Openings beat by 423,000 and August was revised up 111,000, so the soft August headline is gone. The level is the highest since May and 354,000 above September 2025.
- Workers are quitting again. The quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, the highest since March 2025, after two months at 1.9%.
- The caveat is concentration. Restaurants and hotels supplied 197,000 of the 321,000 extra quits, and state and local government 104,000 of the extra openings. Private openings still rose 236,000.
- For a Fed that held at 3.75%-4.00% with two hike dissents last week, this removes a labour-market reason to stand pat in December. Payrolls on Friday now have to show weakness on their own.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — a clear beat on openings and quits supports the case for a December hike rather than a long hold.
- It shared 10:00 with factory orders and the final durable goods figures, so the move in the minute after is not cleanly this release's alone.
- The Open said a weak print would test the 2-year; this print points the other way.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bearish — stronger labour demand supports earnings but keeps hike pricing live on a day already driven by Apple, AMD after the close and the midterm results.
- RTY carries the read most directly: openings at firms with 1 to 49 employees rose a combined 411,000, but small caps are the most rate-sensitive of the four.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — The Open tied gold's overnight weakness to December hike pricing and higher yields; a firm labour print adds to both.
- A clearly soft JOLTS was the cleanest route to a lower front end this week. This was not one.
Inside The Number
Job openings rose 333,000 to 7,523,000 in September against a 7.10 million consensus (TradingEconomics), a beat of about 423,000. The rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. BLS still called the change "little changed", because the move is inside the survey's sampling error, and named only one industry with a significant increase: state and local government excluding education, +104,000 to 519,000, its rate up to 5.0% from 4.0%. August was revised up 111,000 to 7,190,000, so the month's gain comes on top of a higher starting point. The level is the highest since May (7,537,000) and 354,000 above September 2025.
The bigger change is in quits. Quits rose 321,000 to 3,365,000, and the rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%. Both are the highest since March 2025 (3,456,000 and 2.2%). Over the year, quits are up 375,000. Last month's brief noted that, outside 2020, the quits rate did not print at 1.9% or lower between July 2015 and November 2024, and had done so in July and August. September ends that run. The quits rate is the cleanest read on whether workers think they can find another job, and it just moved the right way for the Fed's hawks.
But one industry did most of it. Accommodation and food services quits rose 197,000 to 719,000, a 5.0% rate from 3.6%. The same industry added 158,000 hires and 195,000 total separations, so restaurants and hotels churned much harder than usual without adding openings (-17,000). Strip that industry out and quits rose about 124,000, still a solid gain. Construction quits rose 46,000 and professional and business services 31,000.
Layoffs stayed low, but read August's revision first. Layoffs and discharges fell 127,000 to 1,641,000, a 1.0% rate, the lowest since March 2025 (1,595,000). That is exactly the level August was first published at. August has now been revised up 127,000 to 1,768,000, so last month's "17-month low" did not survive revision. September's number will be revised too. The significant moves BLS named were a 70,000 drop in health care and social assistance layoffs, to 154,000 after August's 224,000, and a fall in the layoffs rate at establishments with 1 to 9 employees.
Net flows stayed positive. Hires rose 131,000 to 5,402,000, the most since March (5,535,000). Total separations rose 144,000 to 5,319,000. Hires minus separations came to +83,000, after August's revised +96,000 (first published +122,000) and July's +18,000. It is a small difference between two large sampled numbers, but it has now been positive for three months. "Low-fire, low-hire" still describes the market. "Low-quit" no longer does.
The Internals
Metric · September · August (revised) · Change · Read
Job openings · 7,523,000 · 7,190,000 · +333,000 · Beat 7.10M, highest since May
Openings rate · 4.5% · 4.3% · +0.2pp · BLS: little changed
Hires · 5,402,000 · 5,271,000 · +131,000 · Most since March, rate 3.4%
Total separations · 5,319,000 · 5,175,000 · +144,000 · Rate 3.3%, unchanged
Quits · 3,365,000 · 3,044,000 · +321,000 · Highest since March 2025
Quits rate · 2.1% · 1.9% · +0.2pp · Highest since March 2025
Layoffs and discharges · 1,641,000 · 1,768,000 · -127,000 · Lowest since March 2025, rate 1.0%
Other separations · 313,000 · 363,000 · -50,000 · Retirements and transfers
Hires minus separations · +83,000 · +96,000 · -13,000 · Third positive month
Private openings · 6,644,000 · 6,408,000 · +236,000 · Rate 4.7%
Government openings · 880,000 · 782,000 · +98,000 · State and local ex-education +104,000
Federal openings · 104,000 · 114,000 · -10,000 · Rate 3.7%
Revisions to August, and the year-on-year picture:
Series · August as first published · August revised · Revision · September 2025 · September 2026 vs a year ago
Openings · 7,079,000 · 7,190,000 · +111,000 · 7,169,000 · +354,000
Hires · 5,192,000 · 5,271,000 · +79,000 · 5,244,000 · +158,000
Total separations · 5,070,000 · 5,175,000 · +105,000 · 5,161,000 · +158,000
Quits · 3,066,000 · 3,044,000 · -22,000 · 2,990,000 · +375,000
Layoffs and discharges · 1,641,000 · 1,768,000 · +127,000 · 1,816,000 · -175,000
Hires minus separations · +122,000 · +96,000 · -26,000 · +83,000 · n/a
Where The Job Openings Are
By establishment size, private sector, seasonally adjusted:
Size class · Sep openings · Aug openings (revised) · Change · Sep rate · Sep layoffs rate
1 to 9 employees · 1,388,000 · 1,233,000 · +155,000 · 5.7% · 0.5%
10 to 49 employees · 2,191,000 · 1,935,000 · +256,000 · 4.8% · 1.4%
50 to 249 employees · 1,555,000 · 1,739,000 · -184,000 · 3.7% · 1.1%
250 to 999 employees · 828,000 · 821,000 · +7,000 · 4.4% · 1.5%
1,000 to 4,999 employees · 468,000 · 467,000 · +1,000 · 5.8% · 1.7%
5,000 or more employees · 213,000 · 213,000 · 0 · 5.0% · 0.6%
Last month's headline story, a 335,000 collapse in openings at firms with fewer than 10 employees, has mostly been revised away. August for that class now stands at 1,233,000, not 1,050,000, and September is back at 1,388,000, level with the 1.38 million it held in June and July. The smallest firms also cut layoffs 145,000 to 120,000, a 0.5% rate from 1.2%, and their quits rose 142,000. The one soft class is 50 to 249 employees, where openings fell 184,000 to a 3.7% rate.
By industry:
Industry · Sep openings · Change · Sep hires · Hires change · Read
Professional and business services · 1,310,000 · +106,000 · 927,000 · -30,000 · Openings rate 5.5% from 5.1%
State and local, excluding education · 519,000 · +104,000 · 150,000 · -6,000 · Only significant openings move
Manufacturing · 584,000 · +54,000 · 313,000 · -34,000 · Rate 4.4%, from 3.0% a year ago
Trade, transportation, and utilities · 1,283,000 · +45,000 · 1,163,000 · +30,000 · Retail hires +40,000
Construction · 298,000 · +36,000 · 356,000 · +49,000 · Quits +46,000
Other services · 270,000 · +26,000 · 211,000 · -25,000 · Rate 4.3% from 3.9%
Information · 116,000 · +25,000 · 94,000 · +24,000 · Hires rate 3.4% from 2.5%
Real estate and rental and leasing · 75,000 · +23,000 · 52,000 · -4,000 · Still 58,000 below a year ago
Accommodation and food services · 659,000 · -17,000 · 879,000 · +158,000 · Quits +197,000, rate 5.0%
Health care and social assistance · 1,479,000 · -35,000 · 705,000 · +1,000 · Layoffs -70,000, significant
Finance and insurance · 289,000 · -42,000 · 104,000 · -8,000 · Hires rate 1.6%
Federal government · 104,000 · -10,000 · 28,000 · 0 · Rate 3.7% from 4.1%
The statistically significant moves BLS named: openings rose in state and local government excluding education (+104,000); hires rose in accommodation and food services (+158,000); total separations rose in accommodation and food services (+195,000); quits rose in accommodation and food services (+197,000) and fell in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-19,000); layoffs fell in health care and social assistance (-70,000).
By region, the West reversed August's drop:
Region · Sep openings · Change · Openings rate · Quits rate · Layoffs rate
Northeast · 1,281,000 · +49,000 · 4.3% · 1.7% · 1.3%
South · 2,747,000 · -49,000 · 4.4% · 2.5% · 1.0%
Midwest · 1,625,000 · +90,000 · 4.6% · 2.2% · 0.9%
West · 1,870,000 · +244,000 · 4.8% · 1.9% · 0.9%
West openings rose 244,000, almost exactly undoing August's first-published 243,000 drop, and West quits rose 195,000 to a 1.9% rate from 1.3%. The Midwest cut layoffs 81,000 to a 0.9% rate. The Northeast is the only region where layoffs rose, +34,000 to a 1.3% rate.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open carried a 7.10M consensus against a 7.079M prior and said openings "near 7.1M would keep the labour market looking soft but steady", while a sharp drop would cut against the December hike pricing weighing on gold.
- Neither happened. Openings came in 423,000 above consensus, with quits up and layoffs down, so the print adds to December hike pricing rather than cutting against it.
- The Open asked whether JOLTS would move the 2-year. A weak print would have tested its rise; this one supports it.
What This Sets Up
- Next JOLTS — Tuesday, 1 December 2026, with October data.
- The test is quits. A second month at 2.1% or higher, with the gain spread beyond restaurants and hotels, would confirm workers are regaining confidence. A fall back to 1.9% would make September a one-industry spike.
- Watch layoffs through the revision, not just the new print. August's low was revised up 127,000; if September's 1,641,000 is revised the same way, the low-fire half of the story is weaker than the headline says.
- The state and local government jump (+104,000) is the part most likely to fade. Private openings above 6.6 million in October would show the beat was not a government story.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released at 10:00am ET from a stratified sample of about 21,000 nonfarm business and government establishments. It measures the stock of unfilled positions on the last business day of the month, and the flows of hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations across the whole month. Estimates are benchmarked each month to the payroll survey's employment level, and hires and separations are aligned so that their difference tracks payroll employment change.
- Why it matters: It is the only regular read on labour demand rather than employment, and the quits rate is the cleanest proxy for how confident workers are about finding another job. With the Fed holding at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October over two dissents for a hike, a firm JOLTS strengthens the case for tightening in December and a weak one weakens it.
- How to read it: Rates matter more than levels, because the denominator grows. The openings rate is openings divided by employment plus openings; the other rates are divided by employment. Month-to-month moves in openings of a few hundred thousand are often inside sampling error, and BLS labels those "little changed", as it did this month. Read openings against hires, and read hires minus separations as an implied net employment change, with the caution that it is a small difference between two large sampled numbers.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._