Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-16

Warsh gives no hike signal. WTI gives back 2%

Rundown · 2026-10-16

This run started late, at 08:55 ET, so the 08:30 data has already printed. Quotes are as of 08:57 ET, and industrial production at 09:15 is the only morning release still to come. Fed Chair Warsh spoke overnight in Bangkok and declined to signal a hike for the 27-28 October meeting. Reported odds of an October hike fell to about 15-17%, from about 27-30% before he spoke (FT and Bloomberg reports). September import prices then rose 1.1% against 0.8% expected (BLS), and the 10-year yield is about 4bp higher overnight after Thursday's 9bp fall to 5.10% (US Treasury). Index futures are quiet: ES +0.14%, YM +0.11%, RTY +0.10%, NQ −0.26%. The bigger moves are in commodities: WTI −2.35% overnight, giving back most of Thursday's 3.03% EIA-draw rally, while gold is +0.41% after +1.51% Thursday. Today is monthly equity options expiry.

Overnight

Against Thursday's settles, 08:57 ET. ES +0.14% · NQ −0.26% · YM +0.11% · RTY +0.10%. The YM-over-NQ split is 0.4 points of %, much narrower than Thursday morning's 1.5 points.
Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has ranged only 0.45% overnight and sits in the upper quarter of that range. NQ has ranged 0.88%, about twice as wide as ES, and sits just below the middle. Its high was 0.27% above Thursday's settle and its low 0.61% below. YM's range is 0.53% and RTY's 0.64%, and both sit a little below the middle of their ranges. The 08:30 import-price print did not take any of the four out of its range.
Asia bounced after Thursday's rout. Kospi +2.05%, after a 7.57% fall Thursday. Nikkei +1.39%, after a 4.90% fall. Hang Seng +0.52%, Shanghai +0.24%. These rebounds recover only a small part of Thursday's losses.
Europe is firmer. DAX +0.96%, STOXX 600 +0.57%, CAC 40 +0.33%, FTSE 100 +0.06%. Eurozone September inflation was confirmed at 3.8% y/y, core 2.5% (Eurostat), unchanged from the flash estimates.
Warsh, at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, gave the market nothing new. He said the Fed would deliver price stability, pointed to the AI investment boom as a source of price pressure, and said he does not prejudge meetings. Markets read that as a reason to keep the October meeting a hold. The FOMC raised rates on 16 September and the funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed).

The Dollar & FX

DXY −0.21% overnight, after −0.5% Thursday. The dollar has now given back its whole CPI gain and more. The move is broad, which points to the lower US rate-hike odds after Warsh rather than any single foreign story.
6B leads the majors. GBP/USD +0.42%. Bank of England Governor Bailey also spoke in Bangkok. He called UK inflation "enormously frustrating" but said signs of second-round effects are "subdued" (FXStreet). That did not change the expectation of a November BoE hike, and the pound has been the strongest major against the dollar this morning.
6A has turned. AUD/USD +0.47%, after it was the only major to fall against a weaker dollar on Thursday morning. On Thursday we called AUD the risk gauge. With Asian equities bouncing, it is now rising with risk appetite.
6E: EUR/USD +0.20%. The euro is lagging the pound and the Australian dollar. Confirmed eurozone inflation contained no surprise.
6J: USD/JPY +0.03%, flat. The yen's haven bid of Thursday morning has gone with the Asian rebound, and higher US yields this morning are offsetting the weaker dollar.
6C: USD/CAD −0.09%. Canadian housing starts were 248K in September against 232.5K expected (CMHC). The 2.35% fall in WTI is limiting CAD's gain.

Energy & Metals

CL: +3.03% on Thursday (settle to settle), −2.35% overnight. It sits in the lower third of a 1.38% overnight range, and the whole overnight range is below Thursday's settle. Brent: −0.13% Thursday, −0.02% overnight.
This is the spread unwinding, not a broad oil selloff. Thursday's rally was WTI-only: EIA reported an 8.56M barrel crude draw, against 0.3M expected, with Gulf Coast stocks down 9.2M. Brent did not follow. Overnight, WTI has given back most of that move and Brent has not moved, so WTI's premium gain against Brent has mostly reversed. Reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on "shadow fleet" tankers are still weighing on prices, and continued attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz are still supporting them (wire reports). The November WTI contract expires on Tuesday 20 October, under CME's rule of three business days before the 25th. Front-month positioning around expiry can add to moves like this one.
13:00 Baker Hughes is the only oil-specific release today. The oil rig count was 462 last week.
GC: +1.51% on Thursday, +0.41% overnight. It sits a little below the middle of a 1.10% overnight range. Almost the whole range is above Thursday's settle: the low is only 0.06% below it.
Gold is still trading as a rates instrument. On Thursday the 10-year fell 9bp, the dollar fell 0.5%, and gold rose 1.5%, even with PPI at its hottest since March 2022. Overnight it rose further after Warsh lowered hike odds. Since the 08:30 import-price beat it has given back about a third of its overnight gain, as the 10-year turned higher. That link is the one to watch through the 09:15 data.

Where We Left Off

Thursday's RTH: S&P 500 +0.33%, Dow +1.08%, Nasdaq Composite +0.08%, Russell 2000 +1.38% (AP). Investrade matches all four. The session opened weak on AI concerns, then recovered. The S&P 500 ended closer to last week's record high. SOX fell for a seventh straight session.
Treasury yields: 10-year 5.10%, 2-year 4.77%, 30-year 5.43% (US Treasury, 15 October). That is −9bp, −5bp and −9bp on the day. 2s10s narrowed to 33bp from 37bp. Long bonds rallied even though PPI rose 1.3% against 0.5% expected and core rose 0.7%.
The leadership was defensive and cyclical, not tech. Health care rose 2.25% to a record (Investrade). Homebuilders rebounded on lower yields, and financials and materials gained. AI infrastructure and power names were sold hard early and recovered only part of the losses.
What carries over: the bond market chose growth worries over inflation on Thursday. Hot PPI and a strong Empire State reading were outweighed by a 0.1% retail-sales control group and Philly Fed new orders falling 25 points. Warsh then lowered the odds of an October hike. The market is pricing a slowdown more than a rate hike, and that is why gold and long bonds are rising together.

Yesterday's Data

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Actual · Hits

08:15 · Canada housing starts, Sep · 232.5K · 242K · 248K · 6C

08:30 · Import prices m/m, Sep · 0.8% · 0.5% · 1.1% · USD · GC · rates

08:30 · Import prices y/y, Sep · n/a · 6.7% · 8.1% · USD · rates

08:30 · Export prices m/m, Sep · 1.0% · 1.2% · 2.2% · USD

08:30 · NY Fed services activity, Oct · n/a · −8.7 · −20.7 · USD · ES

09:15 · Industrial production m/m, Sep · 0.4% · 0.0% · pending · USD · ES · RTY

09:15 · Manufacturing output m/m, Sep · 0.3% · −0.3% · pending · USD · RTY

09:15 · Capacity utilization, Sep · 76.5% · 76.3% · pending · USD · rates

13:00 · Baker Hughes oil rigs · n/a · 462 · pending · CL

14:00 · Monthly budget statement, Sep · n/a · −$167B · pending · rates

16:00 · TIC net long-term flows, Aug · n/a · −$27.9B · pending · USD · rates

18:00 · Fed's Goolsbee speaks · n/a · n/a · pending · USD · rates

All day · Monthly equity options expiry · n/a · n/a · n/a · ES · NQ · YM · RTY

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Import and export prices were checked against the BLS release. The NY Fed services reading is from the calendar feed and was not checked against the NY Fed's own page.

The 08:30 slot has printed, and it was hot on prices. Import prices rose 1.1%. Fuel accounted for much of that, up 4.8%, but nonfuel imports rose 0.7% (BLS), which is the part that feeds core goods inflation. The NY Fed's services gauge fell to −20.7 from −8.7, the same mix as Thursday: prices hot, activity soft. Industrial production at 09:15 is the session's fulcrum, and it lands just before the cash open. A manufacturing miss after Philly Fed's collapse in new orders would support Thursday's growth-worry trade in bonds and gold. A strong print, after Empire State's strength, would add to the inflation case that import prices have just made. Goolsbee at 18:00 is one of the last Fed speakers before the pre-meeting blackout, which begins on Saturday. Monthly options expiry can pin the indices or exaggerate moves through the afternoon.

Index Movers

Ranked by likely index contribution. Thursday closes, and pre-market moves as of 08:57 ET.

NVDA −1.84% Thursday, −0.2% pre-market. It is the largest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight and was the biggest single drag on both on Thursday. That is why the Nasdaq finished only +0.08% while the Dow rose 1.08%. This morning it is little changed.
TSLA +3.3% pre-market, after it unveiled its new Roadster in a live demonstration on Thursday evening (wire reports). It is a top-ten S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight, and it is the largest single support for ES and NQ this morning.
The Dow's rally came from high-priced names: HD +4.31%, GS +1.43%, SHW +3.81%, UNH +2.79% and CRM +4.57%. The Dow is price-weighted, so these five gave YM most of its 1.1% gain. CAT −1.78% was the largest Dow drag, as the AI-power trade was sold again.
TRV −2.8% pre-market, despite a beat. Travelers reported Q3 core income of $9.18 per share and an 86.8% combined ratio (SEC 8-K). It is a high-priced Dow member, so it is the largest YM drag pre-market after its own rally of 1.61% on Thursday.
LLY +3.55% Thursday. It was the largest S&P 500 support as health care rose to a record. It is +0.2% pre-market.
NFLX −3.6% pre-market. Netflix named Peter Rice, the former Disney Television chairman, as Chief Content Officer, replacing Bela Bajaria. MU −2.4% pre-market, after +1.87% on Thursday, keeps the chip pressure on NQ.

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Thursday's calls. We asked whether NQ's overnight discount would survive the cash open. It mostly did not. NQ was down 1.23% before the open, and the Nasdaq Composite closed +0.08%, but the Dow still beat it by 1 point of %. We asked whether the bond rally would survive the 08:30 data. It did, even through the hottest PPI since 2022: the 10-year finished −9bp. We asked whether AUD would keep falling against a weaker dollar. It has turned, and is up 0.47% this morning. We asked whether EIA would confirm API's draw. It did, with an 8.56M barrel draw, and WTI rose 3.03%.
Whether gold holds its link to the 10-year through 09:15. It has given back part of its gain since import prices pushed yields higher. A strong IP print would test that link again.
Whether WTI keeps falling while Brent holds. If it does, the move is the EIA spread unwinding ahead of the November expiry. If Brent starts to fall too, the shadow-fleet sanctions story is taking over.
Whether ES stays at the top of a narrow range into options expiry. A 0.45% overnight range on an expiry Friday is a reference for how quiet the session has been, not a forecast of how quiet it stays.
Whether hike odds rebuild after import prices. The post-Warsh reading of about 15-17% came before the 08:30 print. No reading from after the print could be verified.

The Bottom Line

The market spent Thursday choosing a slowdown over a rate hike, and Warsh did nothing overnight to change that choice. Long bonds, gold and the defensive sectors all rose together, while the dollar fell. This morning's import prices are the first test of that view. They were hot on the nonfuel component, the part the Fed cares about, and the 10-year has started to rise again. With industrial production at 09:15, Goolsbee tonight and options expiring this afternoon, the session turns on whether the growth data can keep yields down. The 10-year and gold are the two instruments that will show it first.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._