Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-23

Biggest bond rally since 2023. Oil adds 1.5%

Rundown · 2026-10-23

Thursday was a flight to bonds, and the overnight session has only partly reversed it. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the Nasdaq-100 2.9%, while the Dow finished flat and the Russell 2000 rose 0.1%. The 10-year yield fell 17bp to 4.96% (US Treasury), its largest one-day drop since the March 2023 banking crisis (Dow Jones market data, as reported). Overnight the lead has flipped again: NQ is −0.10% against Thursday's settle while YM is −0.61% and sits near its overnight low. That is the fourth session in a row the NQ-YM gap has changed sign. The 10-year is about 5bp higher overnight. Oil is the second story: WTI +1.49% and Brent +1.25% on reports that the US and Israel are weighing strikes on Iran. Gold is −0.39% after a 2.16% drop Thursday, and it has not traded above Thursday's settle. This brief is written at 07:40 ET, an hour later than usual. Quotes are as of about 07:25 ET. Nothing on the US calendar has printed. The first US release is the flash PMIs at 09:45.

Overnight

• Against Thursday's settles, 07:25 ET. ES −0.24% · NQ −0.10% · YM −0.61% · RTY −0.56%. On Thursday the Dow beat the Nasdaq-100 by almost 3 points of %. This morning the Dow is the weakest of the four.
• Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has ranged 0.47% and sits in the lower quarter. Its high is 0.13% above the settle and its low 0.34% below. NQ has ranged 0.88% and sits about a third of the way up, with its high 0.47% above the settle and its low 0.41% below. YM has ranged 0.89% and sits in the lower eighth, with its high 0.18% above the settle. RTY has ranged 0.82% and sits in the lower sixth. All four traded above Thursday's settle at some point overnight. These ranges are about half the width of Thursday morning's.
• Asia sold early and recovered. The Kospi closed +0.30% at its high of the day after trading as much as 4.1% lower. The Nikkei closed −0.34%, having been down 2.3% at its low. Hang Seng +0.69%, Shanghai +0.89%, ASX 200 +0.02%. The AI selling that drove Asia on Thursday ran out during the Asian session.
• Europe is lower on a growth miss. DAX −0.70%, CAC 40 −0.57%, STOXX 600 −0.48%, FTSE 100 −0.45%. The eurozone flash composite PMI fell to 51.9 from 53.1, against 52.7 expected (HCOB/S&P Global; Reuters poll). That is the lowest since June. France fell back into contraction, and energy costs were the main drag.
• What broke while the US was closed. No major index constituent reported after Thursday's close. Intel does not report until 29 October (Intel). Thursday's brief said it reported last night; that was wrong. American Express reported this morning (see Index Movers). The oil news is about escalation risk, not new damage: reports say the US and Israel are weighing a concentrated multi-day strike on Iran after the 3 November midterms, and Iran has warned it would hit Gulf oil infrastructure in response.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.18% as of 07:24 ET. Over five days it is roughly flat (−0.05%). The dollar is firmer this morning mainly because the euro is weaker. It is not a broad dollar bid.
• 6E is carrying the move: EUR/USD −0.20%. The PMI miss is the driver. FXStreet reported the euro at its weakest against the dollar since May 2025 and at an 18-month low against sterling. France is both a growth problem and a bond-market problem. The OAT-Bund spread was reported near 157bp on 21 October, the widest since 2012.
• 6B: GBP/USD −0.19%. The pound is down against the dollar but up against the euro.
• 6J: USD/JPY +0.08%. The yen gained strongly on Thursday on risk-off flows and the drop in yields. This morning yields are up about 5bp, equities have steadied and the yen is flat. The BoJ decides on 30 October.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.06%. CAD is a little firmer, with WTI up 1.5%. Canada's August retail sales print at 08:30. It is the only 08:30 print in North America today and the one live catalyst for 6C before 10:00.
• 6A: AUD/USD −0.01%. Flat. Asia's recovery helped it make up the early weakness.
• Fed odds. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed), and the FOMC decides on 28 October. The Fed is in its blackout period, so there are no Fed speakers. CME FedWatch was reported at 92.8% for a hold next week (FXStreet, 23 October). That leaves about 7% for a hike. Investrade reported that a hike next week has been largely priced out after Thursday's bond rally. We could not confirm a prediction-market figure for today, so this is a single-tracker reading.

Energy & Metals

• CL: +2.39% Thursday, +1.49% overnight. December WTI settled at a five-month high, back near $100. Overnight it has ranged 2.52% and sits in the upper fifth. Its low is 0.63% below Thursday's settle.
• Brent: +4.00% Thursday, +1.25% overnight. It has ranged 2.0% and sits in the upper fifth.
• The catalyst has moved from Saudi Arabia to Iran. Thursday's gain was about the Houthi attacks near Saudi oil sites. This morning it is about reports that the US and Israel are weighing strikes on Iran, and about Iran's threat to Gulf oil facilities. Iran's president has also discussed mediation with Pakistan's army chief, so the headlines run both ways. The mechanism: Gulf exports are reported to be flowing near pre-war levels, so this is a risk premium on what could happen, not on lost barrels. Tanker rates are also rising. Thursday showed oil and yields moving in opposite directions: oil up 2.4%, the 10-year down 17bp. The bond market is pricing slower growth, not inflation from oil.
• GC: −2.16% Thursday, −0.39% overnight. December gold settled at its lowest in more than two months. Overnight it has ranged 1.16%, came within a dollar of $4,000 at its low, and now sits near the top of the range. Its high is still 0.31% below Thursday's settle.
• Gold fell on the day yields had their biggest drop since 2023. Lower yields normally help gold. Silver fell 4.68% Thursday and is −1.59% again overnight, while copper is +1.29%. That points to selling across positions held in precious metals, not a change in the rate outlook. Gold has now fallen in two sessions where the 10-year fell.

Where We Left Off

• Thursday's RTH: S&P 500 −1.2%, Dow +0.02%, Nasdaq Composite −2.6%, Russell 2000 +0.1% (AP). Investrade and MarketWatch match all four. The Nasdaq-100 fell 2.90%, its worst day since June. The SOX fell about 6-7%.
• Treasury yields Thursday: 10-year 4.96%, 2-year 4.65%, 30-year 5.29% (US Treasury, 22 October). That is −17bp, −16bp and −13bp. The 10-year closed below 5% for the first time in a month.
• Six of eleven S&P sectors rose. Technology fell 3.3%, and staples rose more than 3%, followed by utilities, health care, REITs and financials. The Dow Transports rose 1.87% and the Dow Utilities 2.19%. Week to date, the Russell is +2.3% and the Dow +1.7%, while the Nasdaq is −0.5% (AP).
• What carries over: the money left tech, but it stayed in the market. It went into Treasuries, defensives, homebuilders and small caps. That is why the Dow was flat and the Russell rose on a day the Nasdaq-100 fell almost 3%. YM is the weakest index future this morning, so the open will show whether that rotation is holding or whether Thursday's gains in defensive stocks are being sold.

Yesterday's Data

• Jobless claims 194K vs 200K expected, the lowest since July, though seasonals drove most of it.
• Natural gas +77 Bcf vs +79 Bcf expected, a seventh week below the five-year norm.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · Earnings: AXP (reported) · n/a · n/a · YM · ES

08:30 · Canada retail sales, Aug · 1.3% · −0.7% · 6C · CL

09:45 · S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, Oct · 55.5 · 55.9 · USD · ES

09:45 · S&P Global flash services PMI, Oct · 58.0 · 58.8 · USD · ES · NQ

09:45 · S&P Global flash composite PMI, Oct · 57.6 · 58.4 · USD

10:00 · UMich sentiment, Oct final · 46.3 · 46.3 prelim · USD · ES

10:00 · UMich 1-year inflation expectations, final · 4.7% · 4.7% prelim · USD · GC · rates

10:00 · UMich 5-year inflation expectations, final · 3.5% · 3.5% prelim · USD · GC · rates

13:00 · Baker Hughes rig count · n/a · 459 oil · 603 total · CL

Consensus: TradingEconomics (US releases); Kinzan (Canada retail sales). Statistics Canada lists the retail release for today. The US 08:30 slot is empty. Both TradingEconomics and Kinzan list no US release before 09:45. No Treasury coupon auction is scheduled, and the Fed is in its blackout period.

The fulcrum is the 09:45-10:00 window. The flash PMIs are the first US activity data since Thursday's bond rally, which priced slower growth. A services miss in line with the eurozone's would support that pricing, and with it the rotation away from tech. A beat would argue that Thursday's move overshot, and the 10-year is already giving back 5bp. The UMich inflation expectations at 10:00 are the gold and rates input. With WTI up 2.4% Thursday and higher again overnight, a rise in the 1-year figure would conflict with the bond market's growth read.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Thursday's moves, close to close. Pre-market trade was thin at 07:36 ET, so pre-market moves are shown only where they were trading.

• NVDA −4.40%. The largest single drag on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. It is also a Dow member. It fell with the rest of the AI group on doubts about what AI spending earns.
• META −6.98%. The company raised its 2026 capex range to $135-145 billion and announced a non-voting share class to help fund AI spending, even though third-quarter revenue beat estimates (Investrade). It is a large S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight.
• AMZN −4.57%, AVGO −4.31%, GOOGL −3.15%, MSFT −2.23%. These were the next-largest cap-weighted drags. None of them reported. AAPL +1.23% was the only megacap offset.
• LRCX −11.76%. Weak guidance tied to supply constraints (Investrade). It led the chip equipment names lower and is part of why the SOX fell 6-7%. It is in the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500.
• CAT −4.89%: the YM name. It was the biggest point drag on the price-weighted Dow, larger than GS (−1.48%) or MSFT. We could not confirm a company-specific catalyst. Rallies in HD +4.33%, JNJ +3.81%, PG +5.62% and AMGN +2.04% offset it, which is why the Dow finished flat. PG beat first-quarter revenue estimates and reaffirmed its targets (Investrade).
• AXP −2.54% pre-market. Adjusted EPS was $4.68. Revenue net of interest expense was $20.1 billion, up 9%. Full-year guidance was raised to $17.60-17.90 adjusted (company 8-K). Coverage says revenue was slightly below estimates. It is a Dow member, and a price-weighted Dow drag if the move holds.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Thursday's calls. We asked whether NQ would get back to Wednesday's settle. It did not: the Nasdaq-100 fell 2.9%. We asked whether YM would keep falling less than NQ. It did: the Dow was flat. We asked whether gold would keep falling as yields fell. It did: −2.16% with the 10-year −17bp. We asked whether Brent would hold its gain with no confirmed lost output. It did, and added more: +4.0%. One correction: Thursday's calendar listed Intel after the close. Intel reports on 29 October.
• Whether the rotation holds at the cash open. YM is the weakest index future this morning, and NQ the strongest. If cash opens with tech steady and defensives lower, Thursday's rotation is unwinding. If both are lower, the market is selling everything.
• Whether the 10-year keeps giving back its drop. It is about 5bp higher, roughly a quarter of Thursday's move. A larger reversal after the PMIs would say the growth scare was too much. Holding near Thursday's level would say the bond market still sees slowing growth.
• Whether oil reacts to Iran headlines in both directions. Escalation reports have added 1.5% overnight, and Iran is also talking about mediation. With no barrels lost, this premium can come out fast.
• Whether gold holds its overnight low. That low is 1.46% below Thursday's settle, and gold has not traded above the settle all night. Gold has been falling as yields fall, so the dollar and yields are not explaining it.

The Bottom Line

Thursday's AI selloff moved into bonds, not cash. The 10-year had its biggest one-day drop since 2023, and money moved into defensives and small caps, which kept the Dow flat while the Nasdaq-100 fell almost 3%. Overnight that has partly reversed: NQ is steady, YM is the weakest, and yields are 5bp higher. Oil is pricing escalation risk with Iran rather than lost supply. Gold keeps falling against falling yields. With no US print before 09:45, the open decides whether Thursday's rotation is still in place, and the PMIs decide whether the bond market's growth worry was right.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._