Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-28

Ras Tanura claim lifts oil. Fed and Big Tech next

Rundown · 2026-10-28

Crude has the overnight move, and the indices are split. The Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery on Tuesday; Saudi authorities said they intercepted missiles over the Eastern Province and have not confirmed a hit. WTI is +1.35% against Tuesday's settle and back above $100, after −1.83% on Tuesday. Index futures have diverged: NQ +0.44%, ES +0.14%, YM −0.22%, RTY −0.21%. Visa is −2.15% pre-market after its outlook disappointed, and it is one of the heaviest names in the price-weighted Dow. Gold is −0.39% after +0.90% Tuesday. The dollar is flat: DXY +0.07%. The 10-year closed Tuesday at 4.99% (US Treasury) and is about +1bp overnight. Quotes are as of about 06:35 ET; nothing on the US calendar has printed. The Fed decides at 14:00 and is expected to hold (91-96%), the Bank of Canada decides at 09:45, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.

Overnight

• Against Tuesday's settles, about 06:30 ET: ES +0.14% · NQ +0.44% · YM −0.22% · RTY −0.21%. Volume is light: ES has traded about 10% of its 65-day average so far, NQ and YM about 16%, RTY 7%.
• Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has ranged only 0.24%, from 0.08% below its settle to 0.17% above, and sits in the top fifth of that range. NQ has ranged 0.69%, almost all of it above the settle (0.09% below to 0.59% above), and sits in the upper quarter. YM has ranged 0.45% and sits in the lower third. RTY has ranged 0.39% and sits in the lower third. NQ's range is nearly three times ES's again; on Monday and Tuesday that ratio was the tech trade. Today it is NQ up and YM down inside the same tape.
• Asia was firm. Nikkei +1.08%, Shanghai +0.91%, Hang Seng +0.23%, ASX 200 −0.03%. SK Hynix was reported up more than 8% in Seoul after record results and a statement that its DRAM and HBM memory is sold out through 2029, which keeps the chip bid from Tuesday alive into the US morning.
• Europe is slightly lower. STOXX 600 −0.27%, FTSE 100 −0.34%, CAC 40 −0.14%, DAX −0.08%. Spain's IBEX 35 is −1.53%, the weakest major index; we could not confirm a single driver for it. Coverage describes Europe as waiting on the Fed, the ECB on Thursday and US megacap earnings.
• Israel's election produced no majority. With more than 4 million votes counted, Central Elections Committee projections reported by the Jerusalem Post put Netanyahu's bloc at 54 seats and the opposition at 47, with Arab parties at a record 19; 61 is needed. Netanyahu has claimed a "decisive majority" among the Zionist public and said he plans to form a right-wing government; Eisenkot had urged him to concede. Coalition talks, not a result, are what the market has. For CL and GC the relevance is how the war with Iran is conducted, and that is not settled this week.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY +0.07%, effectively flat into two central-bank decisions. Tuesday's euro weakness has not carried into a broad dollar move. The 2-year is about +1bp overnight and the 10-year about +1bp, so rates are not pushing it either.
• 6B: GBP/USD −0.17%, the biggest mover among the majors. We found no UK-specific catalyst this morning; with the FTSE lower, it reads as sterling softening against a flat dollar rather than a news move. Treat it as small.
• 6E: EUR/USD +0.01%. Flat after Tuesday's fall of about 0.3% on the weak French and ECB lending data. The ECB decides Thursday.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.05%. The yen is a touch firmer. Intervention warnings from Japan's finance minister remain the backdrop; the BoJ decides Friday.
• 6C: USD/CAD +0.05%. The Canadian dollar is slightly softer despite crude rallying, which points at the Bank of Canada at 09:45 ET. The policy rate is 2.25% after a hold in September; a Reuters poll of economists (23 October) expects a 25bp hike to 2.50%, while some commentary still argues for a hold. Today is the 6C day, and it lands an hour before the EIA print that also moves CAD.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.03%. Flat, with Asian equities firm.
• Fed odds. The funds rate is 3.75-4.00% (Fed). For today, Kalshi shows a 96% chance of a hold this morning and CME FedWatch was reported at 90.6% (FXStreet, 28 October): read it as 91-96% hold. For December, Kalshi has 75% on a 25bp hike plus 4% on a larger one, and FedWatch was reported at 84.3%: a 75-84% range for a December hike. With a hold close to fully priced, the 14:00 statement and Chair Warsh's 14:30 press conference carry the risk, not the decision.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −1.83% Tuesday, +1.35% overnight. WTI has ranged 2.49% overnight, from 0.15% below Tuesday's settle to 2.34% above, and sits a little above mid-range, having given back about half of the early spike. Brent is higher by a similar margin.
• The catalyst: a claimed strike on Ras Tanura, dated Tuesday 27 October. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said a ballistic missile hit the refinery and caused large fires; Saudi authorities said they intercepted missiles over the Eastern Province and in Riyadh, and did not comment on the named targets. A maritime security agency reported a fire near the terminal had been contained, and the effect on loading is unclear. Ras Tanura refines about 550,000 b/d and is Saudi Arabia's main Gulf export hub. The mechanism: Tuesday's fall priced peace-talk hopes; overnight, the market has put back premium for barrels that physically leave the Gulf. Until Saudi Arabia says what, if anything, was hit, the premium rests on a claim.
• EIA inventories at 10:30 (week to 23 October): consensus flat, after a 3.06M barrel draw the prior week (TradingEconomics). We could not verify Tuesday's API figure.
• GC: +0.90% Tuesday, −0.39% overnight. Gold has ranged 1.07% overnight, from 0.23% above its settle to 0.84% below, and sits just below mid-range. It is holding above $4,000.
• Why gold is soft into the Fed. Tuesday's gain came with the 10-year down a basis point and the euro under pressure, so it was not a clean dollar or yield trade. Overnight, yields are up about a basis point and the dollar is flat; with a December hike priced at 75-84%, gold is waiting on whether Warsh validates that. A haven bid on the Ras Tanura claim has not shown up in gold, only in crude.

Where We Left Off

• Tuesday's RTH: S&P 500 +0.60%, Dow +0.03%, Nasdaq Composite +1.18%, Russell 2000 +1.16% (AP; Investrade and MarketWatch match all four). The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.29% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 3.60%.
• Treasury yields Tuesday: 10-year 4.99% (−1bp), 2-year 4.70% (+2bp), 30-year 5.30% (−1bp) (US Treasury, 27 October). The curve flattened slightly into the Fed.
• Breadth was better than the Dow suggests. Tech, industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and small caps led; energy fell more than 2% with crude, and REITs and staples lagged (Investrade). Small caps matched the Nasdaq.
• What carries over: two indices, two stories. The Dow was flat only because Boeing fell 10.69% on a wider-than-expected core loss and production delays; the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell all rose. Overnight, the same split has reappeared through Visa. A YM trader is trading single names this morning, and an NQ trader is trading the run-up to Microsoft and Alphabet.

Yesterday's Data

• Consumer confidence 91.7 vs 81.0 expected: a 7.5-point jump as gasoline eased, but expectations are still below the recession-signal line.
• Durable goods +1.8% vs 1.5% expected: aircraft did the work; core capital goods slowed to +0.5%.
• New home sales 676K vs 650K expected: buyers kept signing through the jump in yields.
• ADP weekly hiring slips to 16,750: a second straight drop and the first downward revision.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications, w/e 23 Oct · n/a · −5.3% · USD

08:30 · Advance goods trade balance, Sep · −$130B · −$132.1B · USD

08:30 · Advance wholesale inventories m/m, Sep · 0.5% · 0.5% · USD

08:30 · Advance retail inventories ex-autos m/m, Sep · n/a · 0.0% · USD

09:45 · Bank of Canada rate decision and MPR · 2.50% (Reuters poll) · 2.25% · 6C · CL

10:30 · EIA crude oil inventories, w/e 23 Oct · 0.0M · −3.06M · CL · 6C

11:30 · 17-week bill and 2-year FRN auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

14:00 · FOMC decision and statement · 3.75-4.00% · 3.75-4.00% · USD · ES · NQ · GC

14:30 · Fed Chair Warsh press conference · n/a · n/a · USD · ES · NQ · GC

After close · Microsoft and Alphabet earnings · n/a · n/a · NQ · ES

Consensus: TradingEconomics; Bank of Canada expectation from a Reuters poll (23 October). Earnings: GE Vernova (S&P 500) and Stellantis before the open; Microsoft, Alphabet, Ford, T-Mobile US, eBay, Chipotle and ServiceNow after the close. Tomorrow at 08:30: PCE, Q3 GDP advance and jobless claims.

The 08:30 slot is advance trade and inventory data, which rarely moves anything on its own; the Bank of Canada at 09:45 is the first live event and the FOMC at 14:00 is the fulcrum. The Fed hold is close to fully priced, so the statement's language on further tightening and Warsh's answers on December are what can move the 75-84% December pricing. A firmer signal would test gold and NQ into the Microsoft and Alphabet reports; a softer one would test the dollar. For 6C, a BoC hike is mostly expected, so a hold would be the surprise. EIA at 10:30 lands on a crude market already carrying a geopolitical premium.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Tuesday's moves, close to close; pre-market as of about 06:40 ET.

• BA −10.69% Tuesday, the largest drag in the price-weighted Dow by a wide margin: on its own it was worth roughly a quarter of a percentage point off the index, which is why the Dow finished +0.03% while the S&P rose 0.60%. A third-quarter core loss came in wider than expected on commercial-aircraft production delays. Boeing is flat pre-market.
• V −2.15% pre-market after −0.57% Tuesday. Visa reported after Tuesday's close; the quarter beat, but its fiscal 2027 growth outlook disappointed. It is one of the highest-priced Dow members, and it is the most visible reason YM is −0.22% while NQ is higher.
• AVGO +4.00% after disclosing a $63 billion bank-consortium financing tied to Anthropic's deployment of its chips; +1.86% pre-market. A top-five Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weight, it led Tuesday's semiconductor rally. NVDA +0.90% (Dow, Nasdaq-100, S&P 500), +0.86% pre-market.
• GOOGL +1.19% Tuesday and +1.70% pre-market after a report that OpenAI is considering buying Google's TPUs. It reports after today's close. MSFT −0.24% Tuesday and −0.22% pre-market, ahead of its own report and after reports of voluntary buyout offers to up to 60,000 employees. These two are among the largest Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 weights, and MSFT is also a Dow member: tonight's reactions land on NQ, ES and YM together.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether NQ would hold Monday's chip gain at the open. It did, and added to it: the Nasdaq-100 rose 1.29%, so NQ has now led YM for three sessions. We asked whether gold would stay offered while yields fell. It did not: it reversed to settle +0.90%. We asked whether the euro's fall would spread. It did not: the dollar is flat this morning and the euro has stopped falling.
• Whether Saudi Arabia confirms damage at Ras Tanura. A confirmed loss of loading capacity turns the overnight premium in CL into a supply story; a denial or a quiet morning leaves it as a claim, of the kind that faded Tuesday.
• Whether the YM-NQ split survives the open. It rests on single names (Visa, last night's Boeing) rather than a sector move. If it persists into the cash session with Visa stable, it is something broader.
• Whether the Fed statement leans on December. With a hold priced at 91-96%, a statement or press conference that firms the December hike would test gold and NQ; one that hedges it would test the dollar.
• Whether 6C follows the Bank of Canada or the oil price. The two usually agree; today crude is up and CAD is slightly softer.

The Bottom Line

The overnight session has one real move, crude on a claimed strike that Saudi Arabia has not confirmed, and one structural feature, a Dow held back by single names while the Nasdaq extends Monday and Tuesday's chip run. Everything else is waiting: the Bank of Canada at 09:45, the Fed at 14:00 and Warsh at 14:30, then Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell. The references are narrow in ES and wide in CL. The session's real risk is scheduled for its last two hours and for after the close.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._