Calendar › ADP weekly employment (NER Pulse) › 2026-10-27
ADP Weekly Hiring Slips to 16,750 — Second Drop and the First Downward Revision
Fundamentals · 2026-10-27
Private employers added an average of 16,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending 10 October, down 750 from a revised 17,500 for the four weeks to 3 October, which was first published at 18,500 a week ago. Second straight decline, and ADP's own line is "Hiring slowed for the second week." The prior week was revised down 1,000, the first downward revision to the newest week in the six releases we have tracked. Matches the 16,750 of the four weeks to 29 August, so hiring is back to its late-August pace. Monthly equivalent about 72,500, against about 112,600 at the 26 September peak three weeks ago. Still 103% above the 8,250 trough of 25 July. All other overlapping weeks unrevised. Preliminary, seasonally adjusted, two-week lag, no published consensus. Next release 10 November.
What It Changes
- The setback last week was not a one-week blip. Hiring fell again, and the week that started the slide was revised lower, not higher.
- The revision pattern broke. The newest week had been revised up in four of five releases, so last week's 18,500 looked likely to rise. It fell to 17,500 instead, which makes the slowdown larger than first reported.
- The September recovery has been given back. The monthly pace is about 72,500, down from about 112,600 three weeks ago, and level with late August.
- It leans against the hawkish case without changing tomorrow. The Fed decides on 28 October with a hike priced at about 10%; one weekly series from a private publisher does not move that, but it is now two weeks of softer hiring going into the meeting.
Impact
- USD — Slight bearish — a second soft week and a downward revision chip at the labour leg of the hike case, but the series has no consensus and little record of moving markets on its own.
- The Open had a hike this week at about 10% and a December hike at 75-80%; a softer hiring trend is a mild argument against December, not a reason to reprice tomorrow.
- Building permits at 08:00 came before it and durable goods at 08:30 fifteen minutes after, so no market move this morning can be credited to this release alone.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — softer hiring lowers the rate threat but weakens the domestic demand backdrop, and this week's index moves are being set by chips, megacap earnings and the Fed.
- RTY has the most direct exposure to both domestic hiring and short rates, so the two effects offset most clearly there.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bullish — one less reason for the Fed to tighten, but The Open had gold offered on the dollar and the run-up to the FOMC, and this print is too small to change that.
Inside The Number
The NER Pulse reported 16,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending 10 October. ADP's own description: "Hiring slowed for the second week." Against the revised 17,500, today's figure is 750 lower, a 4.3% fall. Against the 18,500 published on 20 October, it is 1,750 lower, a 9.5% fall.
The revision is the bigger news. The four weeks to 3 October moved down 1,000, from 18,500 to 17,500. Before today the newest week had been revised +250, +500, 0, +1,500 and +1,250 in the five releases we tracked, never down. The 20 October brief warned that if that pattern held, 18,500 would more likely be revised up than down. It went the other way. That removes the main caveat on last week's slowdown: the first estimate was not understating it, it was overstating it.
The drop into 3 October is now even larger. With the 26 September week unrevised at 26,000, the step into 3 October is -8,500, not the -7,500 first published. Because the Pulse is a four-week moving average, that means the week ending 3 October came in about 34,000 jobs below the week ending 5 September, which it replaced in the window. Today's -750 is far smaller: the week ending 10 October came in about 3,000 jobs below the week ending 12 September. So the second decline is a small one; the slowdown is mostly the single week of 3 October, and today's week did not recover it.
On level, the series is back to late August. 16,750 exactly matches the reading for the four weeks to 29 August. At 4.33 weeks to the month, today's pace is about 72,500 jobs a month, against about 75,800 for the revised prior and 112,600 for the 26 September peak. It is still 103% above the 8,250 trough of 25 July, and 45.5% below the 30,750 of the four weeks to 6 June, which has now rolled out of the table.
The narrative point: two weeks ago the question was whether September's recovery would hold. It did not. Hiring has now fallen back to its late-August pace, and the one week that dragged it down was revised lower. Firing is still low, so this is the hiring half of a low-hire, low-fire market weakening again rather than a layoff signal. Two declines in a four-week average are still a short run; the next print, on 10 November, will show whether this settles near 17,000 or keeps falling toward the summer lows.
The Internals
Comparison · Reading · Gap · Read
This week, four weeks to 10 October · 16,750 per week · n/a · The headline
Four weeks to 3 October, revised · 17,500 per week · Down 4.3% · Second straight decline
Four weeks to 3 October, as published 20 October · 18,500 per week · Down 9.5% · Against last week's published figure
Four weeks to 26 September, peak · 26,000 per week · Down 35.6% · Unrevised, still the recent high
Four weeks to 29 August · 16,750 per week · Level · Same reading
Trough, four weeks to 25 July · 8,250 per week · Up 103.0% · Still about double
Monthly equivalents, at 4.33 weeks to the month:
Window · Per week · Monthly equivalent · Note
Four weeks to 10 October · 16,750 · About 72,500 · Today's headline
Four weeks to 3 October, revised · 17,500 · About 75,800 · Revised down 1,000
Four weeks to 26 September · 26,000 · About 112,600 · The recent peak
Four weeks to 12 September · 22,500 · About 97,400 · Covers the September reference week
Trough, four weeks to 25 July · 8,250 · About 35,700 · The low
Recent newest-week revisions:
Week ending · First published · Revised to · Revision · Revised in release of
22 August 2026 · 12,000 · 12,250 · +250 · 15 September
29 August 2026 · 16,250 · 16,750 · +500 · 22 September
5 September 2026 · 20,000 · 20,000 · 0 · 6 October
19 September 2026 · 23,750 · 25,250 · +1,500 · 13 October
26 September 2026 · 24,750 · 26,000 · +1,250 · 20 October
3 October 2026 · 18,500 · 17,500 · -1,000 · 27 October
The Twelve-Week Table
Every week in today's release, against the 20 October release:
Week ending · Today's release · 20 October release · Change · Weekly increase
10 October 2026 · 16,750 · Not yet published · New · -750
3 October 2026 · 17,500 · 18,500 · Revised down 1,000 · -8,500
26 September 2026 · 26,000 · 26,000 · Unrevised · +750
19 September 2026 · 25,250 · 25,250 · Unrevised · +2,750
12 September 2026 · 22,500 · 22,500 · Unrevised · +2,500
5 September 2026 · 20,000 · 20,000 · Unrevised · +3,250
29 August 2026 · 16,750 · 16,750 · Unrevised · +4,500
22 August 2026 · 12,250 · 12,250 · Unrevised · +2,250
15 August 2026 · 10,000 · 10,000 · Unrevised · -1,750
8 August 2026 · 11,750 · 11,750 · Unrevised · +2,250
1 August 2026 · 9,500 · 9,500 · Unrevised · +1,250
25 July 2026 · 8,250 · 8,250 · Unrevised · -2,750
18 July 2026 · Rolled off · 11,000 · No longer shown · n/a
- One revision, one new week. Ten of the eleven overlapping weeks are unchanged; only 3 October moved, and it moved down.
- The 18 July week rolled off, so the table now spans 25 July to 10 October.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed the Pulse at 08:15 with no consensus and a prior of 18.5K, and put durable goods at 08:30 and consumer confidence at 10:00 as "the data" before tomorrow's Fed decision.
- That held. The Pulse printed below the 18.5K prior, and below it again after the revision, but with no consensus and durable goods fifteen minutes later it was not the release that set the morning.
What This Sets Up
- Next NER Pulse: Tuesday 10 November, covering the four weeks to 24 October. There is no Pulse next week because ADP publishes its monthly National Employment Report that week.
- Confirms the slowdown: a third decline, below the 16,750 of late August, or a second downward revision, this time to 10 October.
- Breaks it: 10 October revised up and a new reading back above 20,000, which would make 3 October one bad week rather than a turn.
- Watch the revision to 10 October. One downward revision after four upward ones is not yet a pattern; a second would mean the first estimates are now running high.
What Is This?
- What it is: The NER Pulse, a weekly preliminary estimate from ADP's payroll records, published as a companion to the monthly ADP National Employment Report and produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It reports the average weekly change in US private employment over a rolling four-week window, seasonally adjusted, with a two-week lag so the payroll data is more complete when it is published. It comes out Tuesdays at 08:15 ET, except in weeks when the monthly report is published.
- Why it matters: Hiring, not firing, has been the weak part of this year's labour market, and this is the quickest read on it. Jobless claims show whether people are being laid off; this series shows whether anyone is being hired. With the Fed weighing another hike, the strength of hiring decides how much room the labour market gives it.
- How to read it: It is a four-week moving average, so each new week contributes only a quarter of the change, and a change of X in the average means the newest week differed from the week it replaced by about 4X. Multiply by about 4.33 for a monthly equivalent. There is no published consensus, so there is no beat or miss, only direction, level and revisions. The table is a rolling twelve-week window, so compare against fixed reference points rather than the high and low on the page.
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