Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-04

Democrats sweep Congress. NQ erases a 2.4% drop

Rundown · 2026-11-04

The election shock came and went overnight. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, flipping seats in Republican strongholds including Texas and South Carolina. NQ fell as much as 2.44% and ES as much as 1.41% below Tuesday's settles as the results came in, on worries about AI regulation and data-centre spending. Then futures turned. Reuters reported that President Trump accepted the results and acknowledged that the Iran war played a part in the Republican losses. As of about 06:32 ET: ES +1.15%, NQ +0.95%, YM +1.57%, RTY +1.44%, with ES and YM at their overnight highs. Gold is +2.85% and the dollar index −0.44%, as markets read a divided government as less room for deficit spending. The 10-year closed Tuesday at 4.95% (US Treasury), and Treasury futures point to it about 1-2bp lower overnight. ADP at 08:15, the Treasury refunding at 08:30 and ISM services at 10:00 are today's tests, with EIA crude at 10:30.

Overnight

• Against Tuesday's settles, about 06:32 ET: YM +1.57% · RTY +1.44% · ES +1.15% · NQ +0.95%. The order matters: NQ is the laggard, because the overnight worry was specifically about Big Tech, AI regulation and data-centre build-outs in states such as Texas and Georgia.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 2.58% (1.41% below to 1.18% above its settle) and sits at the high. NQ has ranged 3.70% (2.44% below to 1.26% above) and sits near the top. YM has ranged 2.52% (0.92% below to 1.60% above) and sits at the high. RTY has ranged 2.61% (1.02% below to 1.59% above) and sits near the top. After a range this wide, the 09:30 open is landing well away from where most of the night's volume traded.
• How the night ran. Futures sold off as the Senate and House calls came in; AP called the Senate for Democrats before midnight. By about 03:13 ET Dow futures were already green. By about 04:22 ET (Reuters) YM was +0.84% and ES +0.35%, and the bid has kept building since.
• Asia: Japan reopened after Tuesday's holiday and fell. Nikkei −1.42%, its first session since Monday. Hang Seng +2.25%, Shanghai +1.32%.
• Europe is higher across the board. STOXX 600 +1.44%, DAX +1.51%, CAC 40 +1.48%, FTSE 100 +1.15%.
• What broke while the US was closed: the election, AMD's results (below), and an API crude draw of 5.27M barrels against a 2.1M build expected (TradingEconomics).

The Dollar & FX

• DXY −0.44% against Tuesday's 17:00 ET close, as of about 06:32 ET. It has ranged 0.64% and sits in the lower third. The market read is that a Democratic Congress makes a deficit-expanding agenda less likely, which leaves the dollar weaker and the long end of the Treasury curve firmer.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.62%, the biggest mover among the majors. It is a risk-on currency on a risk-on morning, a day after the RBA's split-vote hike to 4.85% (RBA). It has ranged 0.93% and sits in the upper fifth.
• 6E: EUR/USD +0.50% and 6B: GBP/USD +0.49%. Both are the mirror of the dollar move rather than anything local. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, which makes cable the pair with a live event of its own this week.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.12%, the overnight round trip. It fell as much as 0.81% as the results hit, the yen's usual haven bid, then recovered almost all of it as equities turned. That recovery is a cleaner read on the risk mood than the headline dollar move.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.34%, a firmer loonie on the broad dollar slide, even with crude lower.
• Fed pricing. We could not get a same-day CME FedWatch reading or a matching prediction-market figure for the December 9 meeting, so we are not printing hike odds again this morning.

Energy & Metals

• CL: −0.38% Tuesday, −0.66% overnight. Tuesday's session gave back an overnight gain of more than 2% from the Qeshm strike; President Trump said Tuesday the US had no immediate plans for further strikes on Iran. Overnight WTI has ranged 2.65% (1.55% below to 1.10% above the settle) and sits in the lower third. Brent: −1.12% Tuesday, −1.03% overnight.
• The mechanism. The API draw was a large miss against an expected build, and crude is lower anyway. The bigger input is the political read: a president acknowledging the war cost his party at the polls adds pressure to settle with Iran, and that is a supply story. EIA crude prints at 10:30 (0.9M build expected, TradingEconomics; prior −1.892M).
• GC: −0.74% Tuesday, +2.85% overnight. Gold has ranged 3.32% (0.31% below to 3.01% above the settle) and sits near the high. Silver is +4.58%.
• Why gold is bid. Two of its inputs moved together: the dollar is down 0.44% and long-dated Treasuries are firmer. Gold kept climbing after equities recovered, so this is a dollar and rates move rather than a haven bid. That matters for the 08:30 refunding: if Treasury lifts coupon auction sizes, the long end has to absorb it.

Where We Left Off

• Tuesday's RTH: Nasdaq Composite +0.83%, S&P 500 +0.37%, Russell 2000 +0.23%, Dow −0.38% (AP; Investrade matches all four).
• Treasury yields Tuesday: 10-year 4.95% (+4bp), 2-year 4.61% (+2bp), 30-year 5.32% (+4bp) (US Treasury, 3 November).
• Monday's rotation reversed. Tech led (the technology sector ETF +1.31%, semiconductors +2.01%) while consumer staples fell 2.07%, the opposite of Monday. Microsoft (+2.74%), Broadcom (+3.07%) and Nvidia (+2.29%) carried the S&P and Nasdaq. Shopify fell 8.74% on its results and a shelf filing.
• Why the Dow fell while the rest rose. Apple (−1.90%) on its memory-cost warning, Home Depot (−2.20%), Sherwin-Williams (−3.26%) and Visa (−1.20%) are all high-priced Dow members, and together they did more to the price-weighted Dow than the tech gains did.
• What carries over: the size of the overnight range. The election risk is now known. Today's session opens with a 2.6% range already printed in ES, and how much of it the cash market accepts is the reference for the rest of the week.

Yesterday's Data

• JOLTS 7.52M vs 7.10M expected: openings at their highest since May and quits up to 2.1%, three days before payrolls.
• Factory orders +1.8% vs 1.2% expected: aircraft and refinery prices did most of the lifting.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:00 · MBA mortgage applications, week to Oct 30 · n/a · 3.4% · USD

08:15 · ADP employment, Oct · 69K · 90K · USD · ES/NQ · GC

08:30 · Trade balance, Sep · −$108.0B · −$105.6B · USD

08:30 · Treasury quarterly refunding announcement · n/a · n/a · rates · USD · GC · ES/NQ

09:45 · S&P Global services PMI, Oct final · 57.9 · 58.8 · USD

09:45 · S&P Global composite PMI, Oct final · 57.6 · 58.4 · USD

10:00 · ISM services PMI, Oct · 54.8 · 54.9 · USD · ES/NQ · GC

10:00 · ISM services prices paid, Oct · n/a · 74.0 · USD · GC

10:30 · EIA crude stocks, week to Oct 30 · 0.9M · −1.892M · CL

11:30 · 17-week bill auction · n/a · 4.140% · rates

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Release times from TradingEconomics, cross-checked against Finviz and the week-ahead previews. The 08:30 slot is not empty: the trade balance and the refunding statement both land there. Uber, McDonald's and CVS Health report before the bell. This week: the Bank of England and jobless claims on Thursday, October payrolls on Friday (65K consensus, TradingEconomics).

The refunding at 08:30 is the fulcrum, not ADP. Week-ahead previews, citing Bloomberg, flagged a possible overhaul of auction sizes, one of the largest in years. Larger long-dated issuance would push against this morning's firmer long end and the gold bid that came with it; steady or smaller sizes would leave both in place. ADP at 08:15 is the first jobs read after Tuesday's strong JOLTS, and ISM services prices at 10:00 feeds the December hike debate.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Tuesday's moves close to close; pre-market as of about 06:35 ET.

• MSFT +2.74% Tuesday, +2.18% pre-market. A top-three weight in the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and Dow, it is, with Amazon, the biggest lift on NQ this morning and a large part of why NQ is green despite the overnight regulation worry. Its high share price makes it a YM lift too.
• AMZN +2.06% Tuesday, +3.20% pre-market. A top-five S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight. It was one of the names traded lower in Germany overnight on the data-centre scrutiny worry, and it has fully reversed.
• AMD +3.65% Tuesday, +5.58% pre-market, after results. Third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $13.4B, with Data Center revenue up 97% to $8.5B, and non-GAAP EPS was $2.09 (AMD, SEC filing). The fourth-quarter outlook is about $17B, plus or minus 3%, above analyst estimates of about $16.1B. It is in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, and it is the chip read NQ was waiting for.
• AAPL −1.90% Tuesday, +0.88% pre-market. It was the biggest drag on the Dow on Tuesday. A modest bounce this morning removes the YM headwind that defined Tuesday's brief.
• GS −0.29% Tuesday, +2.46% pre-market. One of the highest-priced Dow members, so its move does more for YM than its size suggests. Financials (+1.24% pre-market for the sector ETF) are helping explain why YM leads.
• TSLA −1.32% Tuesday, −4.53% pre-market. The biggest pre-market drag among the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 heavyweights. We found no company news behind it. Solar names went the other way: First Solar +7.58% pre-market on the Democratic result.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether YM's lag would survive the open. It did: the Dow was the only index to fall. We asked whether NQ would hold green with Apple down. It did: the Nasdaq rose 0.83% as chips held. We asked whether crude would keep climbing. It did not: WTI gave back its overnight gain and settled −0.38%. We asked whether JOLTS would move the 2-year. It did, a little: openings beat and the 2-year rose 2bp.
• Whether the cash open accepts the overnight high. ES and YM are at their overnight highs after a 2.6% range. That is the reference, not a direction.
• Whether NQ keeps lagging. The worry about AI regulation has not gone away with the recovery. If NQ stays the weakest index after 09:30, the market is still pricing it.
• What the refunding does to the long end. The 10-year is lower overnight and gold is up nearly 3%. Larger long-dated auction sizes would test both.
• Whether gold holds once the dollar steadies. The bid is a dollar and rates move. A firm ADP or ISM services print would test it.

The Bottom Line

The one big event risk of the week resolved overnight, and in two directions. The first move was the AI-regulation fear in NQ, the second was relief, and now futures sit at their highs with the Dow and small caps leading. The dollar is weaker and gold is the cleanest expression of that. What is left today is the refunding at 08:30, which goes straight at the long end and gold, and two jobs-and-services prints before Friday's payrolls. With a 2.6% overnight range in ES behind it, the cash session opens far from where most of the night traded.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._