Market notes from the Phantom desk

Notes on every major economic release — what the print said, what moved underneath it, and what it means for the session.

Recent notes

• Capacity Utilization 76.9% vs 76.5% Est — Highest Since 2023, Utilities Did the Lifting (2026-10-16)
• Import Prices +1.1% vs +0.8% Est — Biggest Annual Rise Since 2022, Nonfuel Up 6.0% (2026-10-16)
• Warsh gives no hike signal. WTI gives back 2% (2026-10-16)
• Crude −8.6M vs −0.3M Est — Gulf Coast Drains 9.2M as Output Drops 300K b/d (2026-10-15)
• Natural Gas +67 Bcf vs +76 Est — Shortfall to Normal Doubles to 23 Bcf, Surplus at 45 (2026-10-15)
• Business Inventories +0.4% (vs 0.4% Est) — Sales Outpace Stock, Ratio Falls to 1.33 (2026-10-15)
• Empire State 25.5 vs 10.3 Est — Highest Since December 2021 as New Orders Jump 21 Points (2026-10-15)
• Jobless Claims 199K vs 200K Est — Fifth Straight Week Under 200K, Longest Run of 2026 (2026-10-15)
• Philly Fed 20.9 vs 28.4 Est — New Orders Drop 25 Points to 4.3, Prices Received Jump (2026-10-15)
• Retail Sales +0.8% (vs 0.3% Est) — Gasoline Was 71% of It, Control Group Just 0.1% (2026-10-15)
• PPI +1.3% (vs 0.5% Est) — Biggest Jump Since March 2022, Core Up 0.7% (2026-10-15)
• AI rout hits Asia. Bonds and gold catch the bid (2026-10-15)
• CPI +0.6% (vs +0.6% Est) — Core Hits 0.3% Again, Three-Month Pace Jumps to 3.2% (2026-10-14)
• Oil jumps 2% into CPI. Gold slips anyway (2026-10-14)
• Existing Home Sales 3.99M vs 3.95M Est — Up 1.5%, but August Was Revised Down to 3.93M (2026-10-13)
• ADP Weekly Hiring 24,750 — First Dip in Six Weeks, After a Revision Up to 25,250 (2026-10-13)
• Goldman lifts YM. Memory chips sink NQ (2026-10-13)
• UMich Sentiment 46.3 vs 47.6 Est — Current Conditions Hit Record Low, Expectations 4.7% (2026-10-09)
• No Iran strikes before the vote. Chips bounce back (2026-10-09)
• Natural Gas +85 Bcf vs +79 Est — Salt Rebuilds 14 Bcf, Shortfall Moves North (2026-10-08)
• Wholesale Inventories +0.5% vs 0.7% Est — Sales Up 1.8%, Ratio Back Down to 1.18 (2026-10-08)
• Jobless Claims 197K vs 200K Est — Fourth Week Under 200K, 4-Week Average at a 2026 Low (2026-10-08)
• Oil jumps 5% as Iran strike talk meets a hurricane (2026-10-08)
• FOMC Minutes — Most See Another Hike by Year End; Several Say Policy Isn't Restrictive (2026-10-07)
• 10-Year Auction 5.300%, Highest Since 2000 — 1.7bp Stop-Through, Dealers Take 2.5% (2026-10-07)
• Crude -3.2M vs +1.7M Est — A 4.1M Adjustment Turned a Flow Build Into a Draw (2026-10-07)
• Brent back over $100. Yields and the dollar follow (2026-10-07)
• ADP Weekly Hiring 23,750 (from 20,000) — Fifth Straight Rise, Highest Since Mid-June (2026-10-06)
• Trade Deficit Widens to $105.6B vs $102B Est — Imports Hit a Record $420.8B (2026-10-06)
• Brent drops under $100. Yields ease off 2002 highs (2026-10-06)
• ISM Services 54.9 vs 55.0 Est — Prices Hit 74.0, Highest Since July 2022 (2026-10-05)
• Euro breaks to a new low. Futures shrug off Aramco (2026-10-05)
• Factory Orders +0.1% vs 0.1% Est — Core Capex Holds +1.6%, Refineries Carry Nondurables (2026-10-02)
• Nonfarm Payrolls +29K vs 90K Est — Unemployment 4.2%, Wages +0.1%, 60K Revised Away (2026-10-02)
• Payrolls decide October. Crude gives back $3 (2026-10-02)
• Natural Gas +64 Bcf vs +64 Est — Fourth Week Below Normal, Salt Draws a Third Week (2026-10-01)
• ISM Manufacturing 54.5 vs 54.8 Est — Prices Jump 6.8 Points to 77.9 (2026-10-01)
• Jobless Claims 197K vs 200K Est — First Three-Week Run Under 200K This Year (2026-10-01)
• PCE cooled. The 10-year still hit 5.35% (2026-10-01)
• Crude +0.9M vs -0.3M Est — Distillates Draw 2.3M to 15% Below Last Year (2026-09-30)
• Chicago PMI Jumps 11.7 Points to 58.8 vs 51.2 Est — Highest Since May (2026-09-30)
• Goods Trade Deficit $132.6B vs $115B Est — Capital Goods Imports Up 57% on the Year (2026-09-30)
• GDP Revised Up to 2.2% vs 1.5% Est — Price Index 6.1%, Hottest Since 2022 (2026-09-30)
• Core PCE +0.2% vs 0.3% Est, Spending +0.9% — Annual Revision Cuts Core Y/Y to 3.0% (2026-09-30)
• ADP Private Payrolls +90K vs 70K Est — First Acceleration Since May, Manufacturing +17K (2026-09-30)
• Williams said no rush. October is a coin flip (2026-09-30)
• JOLTS 7.08M vs 7.23M Est — Small Firms Cut 335K Openings, Layoffs at 17-Month Low (2026-09-29)
• FHFA House Prices +0.3% vs 0.1% Est — Annual Gain 2.6%, Fastest Since August 2025 (2026-09-29)
• Oil gave back $4. The 10-year kept going (2026-09-29)
• Trump turned down Iran. Gold lost $130 (2026-09-28)