Market notes from the Phantom desk

Notes on every major economic release — what the print said, what moved underneath it, and what it means for the session.

Recent notes

• Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M (vs -1.27M Est) — But Total Petroleum Built 6.3 Million (2026-09-10)
• Natural Gas Storage +40 Bcf (vs +31 Est) — Salt Drew 11 Bcf and the Surplus Is Shrinking (2026-09-10)
• Final Wholesale Inventories +1.3% (vs +1.3% Est) — Two Sectors Made 59% of the Build (2026-09-10)
• Existing Home Sales 3.98M (vs 3.98M Est) — Supply Hits Its Highest Level Since 2019 (2026-09-10)
• Jobless Claims 206,000 (vs 205K Est) — The Four-Week Average Turned Back Down (2026-09-10)
• PPI +0.4% on a 24.1% Jump in Diesel (vs 0.4% Est) — But Core Rose Just 0.2% and the 43.7-Percent-Weight Services Block Was Exactly Flat (2026-09-10)
• The Treasury tripled its buyback. Yields rose anyway (2026-09-10)
• The biggest oil shock ever. Pharma broke the Dow (2026-09-09)
• Payrolls beat. Then oil went to $99 (2026-09-08)
• Nonfarm Payrolls +162,000 vs 56K Est — and July Was Revised From -23,000 to +21,000 (2026-09-04)
• Waller speaks. The hike becomes a coin flip (2026-09-04)
• ISM Services 55.4 and S&P Final 56.5 — the Two Surveys Disagree on Prices and Jobs (2026-09-03)
• Productivity 1.4% and Unit Labor Costs 1.2% — Labor's Share of Output Hit a Record Low (2026-09-03)
• Jobless Claims 206K vs 205K Est — the Four-Week Average Has Now Risen Four Weeks Running (2026-09-03)
• Yields take a breath. Oil doesn't (2026-09-03)
• JOLTS Openings 7.27M vs 7.30M Est — Hires Fell 278,000 and Every Labor Flow Shrank (2026-09-01)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.6 vs 55.2 Est — Every Demand Gauge Fell, Prices Froze at 71.1 (2026-09-01)
• Oil takes $90. Stocks stop pretending (2026-09-02)
• Oil reloads, yields follow. August still wins (2026-09-01)
• Warsh has work to do. The 2-year believes him (2026-08-31)
• Warsh's First Jackson Hole — Six-Month Inflation at 4.1% and Conditions Not Restrictive (2026-08-28)
• Michigan Sentiment Final 51.7 — Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Revised Down to 4.0% (2026-08-28)
• Software roars back. The labor market won't crack (2026-08-28)
• Natural Gas Storage Builds Just 15 Bcf vs 20 Est — Salt Caverns Drew 20 Bcf in a Week (2026-08-27)
• Goods Trade Deficit $118.8B vs $99B Est — Capital Goods Imports Up 46.9% on the Year (2026-08-27)
• Initial Jobless Claims 203,000 vs 208K Est — Not One State Saw Claims Rise by 1,000 (2026-08-27)
• PCE runs hot. Then Nvidia answered (2026-08-27)
• Personal Income +0.4% but Real Spending Flat at Zero — Saving Rate Back Up to 3.0% (2026-08-26)
• Durable Goods +1.1% but Ex-Transportation Only +0.4% — and Core Capex Orders Just +0.2% (2026-08-26)
• GDP Holds at 1.5% While Private Domestic Demand Runs 4.2% and Prices Revise Up (2026-08-26)
• Core PCE 3.3% Year on Year as Real Consumer Spending Stalls at Zero (2026-08-26)
• The war premium breaks. Yields follow oil down (2026-08-26)
• New Home Sales Fall 10.5% to 607K — a Drop Census Calls Statistically Insignificant (2026-08-25)
• Consumer Confidence Slips to 89.4 — Present Situation Jumps 6.8, Expectations Sink to 68.2 (2026-08-25)
• FHFA House Prices Flat in June — Annual Gain 2.1%, Real Prices Falling (2026-08-25)
• ADP Weekly Hiring Rises to 11,750 — Second Straight Gain, Still 62% Below June Peak (2026-08-25)
• Tech cracks before Nvidia. Treasury reaches deeper (2026-08-25)
• Yields win the week. The Dow gets Friday (2026-08-24)
• Yields snap back. Walmart breaks the consumer (2026-08-21)
• Natural Gas Storage Builds Only 16 Bcf as Salt Caverns Draw 18 (2026-08-20)
• CB Leading Index Up 0.2% — Six-Month Growth Turns Positive First Time in Four Years (2026-08-20)
• Jobless Claims Fall to 206K — But the Four-Week Average Crosses Back Above 200K (2026-08-20)
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Hits 47.4 — Five-Year High, Capex Plans Best Since 1973 (2026-08-20)
• Treasury blinks. Moderna nearly triples (2026-08-20)
• Chips lead the slide. Yields won't quit (2026-08-19)
• Pending Home Sales July -2.3% m/m (MISS), -2.2% Y/Y — LOWEST since January 2026, ALL 4 REGIONS negative, West -4.7%; contracts 30% BELOW pre-pandemic (2026-08-18)
• Import Prices -0.4% Headline Cool, But Nonfuel +4.5% Y/Y — Tariff Pass-Through Confirmed (2026-08-18)
• Housing Starts CRATER -12.4%; Permits +5.0% — Builders Plan But Pause (2026-08-18)
• ADP Weekly 9.5K — 7-Week Decline Streak Broken; Still 76% Off Peak (2026-08-18)
• The long end bites. Stocks slip from records (2026-08-18)