Calendar › Existing home sales › 2026-10-13

Existing Home Sales 3.99M vs 3.95M Est — Up 1.5%, but August Was Revised Down to 3.93M

Fundamentals · 2026-10-13

Existing home sales 3.99 million annual rate in September vs 3.95 million consensus (TradingEconomics), up 1.5% m/m and down 2.2% y/y; August revised down to about 3.93 million from the 3.98 million first reported, implied by NAR's own monthly percentages; "August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year" (Yun); median price $417,500, up 1.3% y/y, the 39th straight annual gain and the slowest of the last three; homes for sale 1.60 million, up 1.9% m/m and 4.6% y/y, 4.8 months' supply (August revised to 4.8 from 4.9); 30-year mortgage 6.86%, up from 6.67% in August; investors and second-home buyers 20%, up from 15%; first-time buyers 31%; cash 27%; distressed 2%; days on market 33; affordability index 105.4 vs 106.7 a year ago, worse in three of four regions.

What It Changes

• The beat is an arithmetic one. 3.99 million beat the 3.95 million consensus, but August was revised down 50,000 to about 3.93 million, so September is still below the 3.98 million the market had as its prior.
• The level is what matters: August and September are the two slowest months of 2026, and sales are down 2.2% on the year with every region lower.
• The rate channel is working against volume. The 30-year averaged 6.86% in September, up 19bp on the month and 51bp on the year, and affordability is now worse than a year ago after improving in August.
• Prices are still positive but slowing: +1.3% y/y against wages at +3.0% and August CPI at 3.4%, so in real terms existing homes are getting cheaper.
• Nothing here changes the Fed path. It is a second-tier release, and October still turns on inflation.

Impact

• USD — Neutral — a modest beat against consensus offset by a downward revision; housing volume does not move the hike debate, which is about prices.
• Shelter in CPI is measured through rents, not this median, so today's price figures say little about tomorrow's print.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bearish, and only for housing-linked names — transaction volume near its 2026 low is revenue lost for brokers, title insurers and mortgage lenders.
• RTY carries the most exposure through regional banks and housing-related small caps; the broad index has no meaningful link to this release.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no clear channel; the mortgage-rate rise behind the weak volume is the same rate move gold already trades on.

Inside The Number

Existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million in September, up 1.5% on the month and down 2.2% on the year. Consensus was 3.95 million. On the face of it, a beat and a second monthly gain.

The revision is the first thing to read. NAR did not publish a revised August figure in its text, but its own percentages give it away. A 1.5% gain to 3.99 million implies August at about 3.93 million, not the 3.98 million reported on 10 September. The regional numbers confirm it: the Midwest, unchanged at 930,000, was first reported at 940,000 in August; the South, up 2.8% to 1.86 million, implies August at about 1.81 million against 1.84 million first reported; the West implies about 710,000 against 720,000. The four implied regional figures sum to exactly 3.93 million. Yun's own line says the same thing: "August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year." September's 3.99 million is still below the August figure the market thought it had.

Supply was revised too. Homes for sale were 1.60 million, up 1.9% from August, which puts August at about 1.57 million rather than the 1.62 million first reported. Months' supply was 4.8, "unchanged from August," so August is now 4.8 rather than the 4.9 that NAR called a ten-year high a month ago. Supply is still up 4.6% on the year and months' supply is up from 4.5, so the trend toward buyers holds. The level is a little lower than it looked.

Prices kept slowing. The median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% from $412,300 a year ago, the 39th consecutive annual gain. That growth rate has slowed from 2.0% in July to 1.6% in August to 1.3% now. Against average hourly earnings up 3.0% over twelve months in the September employment report and headline CPI at 3.4% in August, a 1.3% nominal gain is a real decline. The West median fell 0.3%, its second straight negative reading. The Northeast led at +4.7%, as it did last month.

The rate story turned against buyers. The average 30-year fixed was 6.86% in September per Freddie Mac, up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year ago. The Housing Affordability Index fell to 105.4 from 106.7 a year ago. In August it had improved year over year in every region; in September it worsened in three of four, led by the Northeast at -4.5%. Only the West, where prices are falling, improved. Yun: "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home."

The buyer mix moved sharply. Individual investors and second-home buyers were 20% of transactions, up from 15% in August and a year ago. That is a five-point jump in one month, after this feed noted their share falling from 21% to 15% over the year to August. Cash sales held at 27%, so the jump was not simply cash buyers stepping in. One month of survey data is not a trend, but a five-point move is large for this series. First-time buyers edged up to 31%.

There is still no distress. Distressed sales were 2%, unchanged on the month and the year. Median days on market rose to 33 from 31, unchanged from a year ago. Yun's advice to sellers was explicit: "Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers."

The narrative point: the pending-home-sales brief on 17 September said closings had room to fall because contracts were down 4.7% on the year. Closings are now down 2.2% on the year, at the two slowest months of 2026, with mortgage rates higher than when those contracts were signed. The housing slowdown is gradual and orderly, and it is still going.

The Internals

Measure · September 2026 · August 2026 · Change · Read

Existing home sales, annual rate · 3.99 million · About 3.93 million, revised · Up 1.5% · Beat 3.95 million consensus

Existing home sales, August as first reported · n/a · 3.98 million · Revised down about 50,000 · The beat is against a lower base

Year-over-year change · Down 2.2% · Down 1.2%, as first reported · Weaker · All four regions lower

Median price, all types · $417,500 · $429,100 · Up 1.3% y/y · 39th straight annual gain

Homes for sale · 1.60 million · About 1.57 million, revised · Up 1.9% m/m · Up 4.6% y/y

Months' supply · 4.8 months · 4.8 months, revised from 4.9 · Unchanged · 4.5 months a year ago

Median days on market · 33 days · 31 days · Up 2 days · Unchanged y/y

30-year fixed mortgage, monthly average · 6.86% · 6.67% · Up 19bp · 6.35% a year ago

Housing Affordability Index · 105.4 · 104.7 · n/a · 106.7 a year ago

Price growth, three months:

Month · Median price · Year-over-year · Real read

July 2026 · $434,100 · Up 2.0% · Slowing

August 2026 · $429,100 · Up 1.6% · Below wages at 3.1%

September 2026 · $417,500 · Up 1.3% · Below wages at 3.0% and CPI at 3.4%

Single-family against condominiums and co-ops:

Property type · Annual rate · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price · Price, 12-month

Single-family homes · 3.64 million · Up 2.0% · Down 1.9% · $422,700 · Up 1.2%

Condominiums and co-ops · 350,000 · Down 2.8% · Down 5.4% · $363,700 · Up 1.2%

The Buyer Mix And The Regions

From the REALTORS Confidence Index:

Buyer category · September 2026 · August 2026 · September 2025 · Read

First-time buyers · 31% · 30% · 30% · Up 1 point

Investors and second-home buyers · 20% · 15% · 15% · Up 5 points in a month

All-cash sales · 27% · 27% · 30% · Unchanged on the month

Distressed sales · 2% · 2% · 2% · Unchanged

The regions, with August implied from today's monthly changes:

Region · September rate · August, implied · August, first reported · Month-over-month · Year-over-year · Median price · Price, 12-month

Northeast · 470,000 · 480,000 · 480,000 · Down 2.1% · Down 4.1% · $523,600 · Up 4.7%

Midwest · 930,000 · 930,000 · 940,000 · Unchanged · Down 2.1% · $329,600 · Up 3.1%

South · 1.86 million · About 1.81 million · 1.84 million · Up 2.8% · Down 0.5% · $361,000 · Up 0.2%

West · 730,000 · About 710,000 · 720,000 · Up 2.8% · Down 5.2% · $613,600 · Down 0.3%

Total · 3.99 million · About 3.93 million · 3.98 million · Up 1.5% · Down 2.2% · $417,500 · Up 1.3%

Affordability, year over year:

Region · Affordability change, 12-month · Median price, 12-month · Read

Northeast · Down 4.5% · Up 4.7% · Worst affordability, strongest prices

Midwest · Down 3.1% · Up 3.1% · Prices and rates both against buyers

South · Down 0.4% · Up 0.2% · Close to flat

West · Up 1.0% · Down 0.3% · Only region improving, only region with falling prices

National index · 105.4, from 106.7 · Up 1.3% · Worse on the year

• The regional pattern matches August's: where prices are rising fastest, affordability is falling fastest, and the West, the most expensive region, is the only one where prices are falling.
• The South and West carried the monthly gain at +2.8% each; the Northeast fell and the Midwest was flat.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed existing home sales at 3.95 million consensus against a 3.98 million prior and said it was "the only US print today likely to move anything, and probably not by much."
• The headline beat the consensus, but the prior it was measured against was revised down to about 3.93 million, so September came in below the number The Open had as its prior.

What This Sets Up

• Next existing home sales: Thursday 12 November, 10:00 ET, covering October.
• Confirms the read: October at or below about 4.0 million with price growth under 1.3%, which would make three slow months in a row as September's 6.86% mortgage rate works through.
• Breaks it: a move back above the 4.06 million of July, which would say buyers are absorbing the rate rise.
• The lead indicator is pending home sales, which measures contracts one to two months before they close; August contracts were down 4.7% on the year.
• Watch the investor share. A jump from 15% to 20% in one month is large for this survey; if it holds, the 1.3% price gain has a buyer under it that it did not have in August.

What Is This?

• What it is: The National Association of REALTORS' monthly count of completed sales of existing single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, drawn from MLS closing data (about 40% of MLS data each month) and released at 10:00 ET. Sales are reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the pace sales would run at for a year if the month repeated twelve times. Existing homes are more than 90% of all US home sales. Alongside the sales rate come the median price, homes for sale, months' supply, the Housing Affordability Index and the REALTORS Confidence Index, which carries the buyer mix.
• Why it matters: Housing is the most rate-sensitive part of the economy, and this release shows how much a rising mortgage rate is costing in volume. With mortgage rates at 6.86% and the market pricing further Fed hikes, it is the clearest read on whether policy is reaching households.
• How to read it: Read supply before sales: months' supply shows who has the negotiating power, and six months is the conventional line between a sellers' market and a balanced one. Compare the median price only year over year, since NAR says month-to-month changes reflect the season, and compare it with wage growth to see whether homes are getting more or less affordable in real terms. The median is affected by which homes sell, so it is not a same-home price index; Case-Shiller and FHFA measure that. NAR revises the prior month, so check the implied revision before calling a beat or a miss.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._