Brent drops under $100. Yields ease off 2002 highs

Rundown · 2026-10-06

Oil is the overnight move, and it is taking rates with it. Brent is $98.60, -$1.72 (-1.71%), below $100, and WTI is $87.84, -$1.59 (-1.78%), its lowest since early September. Gulf exports are recovering and Saudi Arabia has cut its prices to Asia. The 10-year is 5.276%, -3.6bp, after Monday's 5.312% close, the highest since 2002 (TradingView). ES is 7,845.50, +19.25 (+0.25%), and its overnight high of 7,848.25 is one tick under the 52-week high of 7,848.50. NQ made a new high at 31,455.25. The euro is bouncing: French yields fell 10.5bp after Marine Le Pen set out deficit targets, which takes EUR/USD to 1.1246, +0.20%. The 08:30 slot has the August trade balance (-$102B expected) and Canada's trade data. Fed's Williams speaks at 09:05 and Bowman at 10:45.

Overnight

• Against Monday's settles, as of about 06:30 ET (delayed, MarketWatch). ES (Dec) 7,845.50, +19.25 (+0.25%) from 7,826.25 · NQ 31,440.25, +122.50 (+0.39%) from 31,317.75 · YM 51,766, +208 (+0.40%) from 51,558 · RTY 2,869.4, +1.6 (+0.06%) from 2,867.8
• Monday's settles reconcile with Friday's. ES +49.00 (+0.63%) from 7,777.25 · NQ +256.00 (+0.82%) from 31,061.75 · YM +81 (+0.16%) from 51,477 · RTY +16.9 (+0.59%) from 2,850.9
• Reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges so far (TradingView, delayed): ES 7,829.00-7,848.25 · NQ 31,309.25-31,455.25 · YM 51,594-51,870 · RTY 2,866.1-2,876.5. ES, NQ and YM are trading near the top of their ranges. NQ's overnight high is above Monday's 31,371.00 and Friday's 31,282.50. ES's 52-week high of 7,848.50 is from Monday's brief (MarketWatch)
• YM is leading overnight, the reverse of Monday, when the Dow lagged the S&P by about half a percentage point
• Asia was higher. Nikkei 70,683.98, +737.12 (+1.05%), back above 70,000. The yen stayed weak, with USD/JPY above 158. BoJ Governor Ueda said the timing of further moves depends on whether the bank's forecasts materialize (Newsquawk). Hang Seng 24,280.56, +240.22 (+1.00%). Mainland China is closed until 8 October. Australia's Westpac consumer confidence fell to 80.4 from 84.4
• Europe is up about 1%. DAX 25,467.08, +0.84% · FTSE 100 10,592.06, +0.90% · STOXX 600 639.85, +0.98% · CAC 40 7,889.21, +0.70% (mid-session, MarketWatch). Lower energy prices are helping. German factory orders fell 10.6% in August against -1.0% expected, the sharpest fall since January, because large orders for military vehicles, aircraft, ships and trains dropped by more than 60%. Without large orders, demand was roughly flat (Destatis, via France 24 and Bloomberg)
• Iran. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned on Sunday, with Iran's crude exports reported at zero under the US naval blockade (Bloomberg). US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the pressure campaign will continue. Neither changes today's supply picture, which is about Saudi and Gulf flows recovering

The Dollar & FX

• DXY 102.03, -0.14 (-0.14%) from Monday's 102.17 (ICE, via MarketWatch), range 101.99-102.29. Monday's close was up 0.24 from Friday's 101.93, but it stayed below the 102.54 52-week high from Monday morning. The dollar is easing for the same reason it rallied: Europe.
• 6E is carrying the move, and France reversed overnight. EUR/USD 1.1246, +0.0023 (+0.20%) from 1.1223, range 1.1203-1.1248 (TradingView). The French 10-year is 4.762%, -10.5bp from 4.867%, against 3.472% for the Bund (Tullett, via MarketWatch). That spread is about 129bp, down from about 137bp on Monday morning. Le Pen proposed a deficit of 3% of GDP by 2032 and EUR 140 billion of savings (Newsquawk). Weak German orders are the other side of the euro story. ECB speakers: Buch (07:40), Elderson and Cipollone (09:00). Lane said today that rising long-term rates are part of the ECB's discussions
• 6B is following the euro. GBP/USD 1.3247, +0.0025 (+0.19%) from 1.3222, range 1.3201-1.3248. The UK construction PMI was 46.1 against 45.2 expected
• 6C is still near its high. USD/CAD 1.4275, +0.0014 (+0.10%) from 1.4261, range 1.4246-1.4285. The 52-week high is 1.4297. CAD is losing support from oil more than it is gaining from a weaker dollar. Canada's August trade balance is at 08:30 (C$1.7B expected, C$0.77B prior) and the Ivey PMI at 10:00
• 6J and 6A. USD/JPY 158.20, +0.29 (+0.18%) from 157.91, range 157.77-158.25. The yen is weakening even with US yields lower. AUD/USD 0.6968, -0.0003 (-0.04%) from 0.6971, range 0.6962-0.6979
• October hike odds: about 20%-23%. Polymarket has a 25bp October hike at 19.5% and a hold at 80.5% (live, about 06:50 ET). CME FedWatch was 23% after Monday's close (TradingView) and 21.6% this morning (Benzinga). December is a different story: Polymarket has a December hike at 74.5%, and TradingView reported December tightening at 87% on FedWatch. The FOMC meets 27-28 October. Minutes from the September meeting are due Wednesday at 14:00

Energy & Metals

• CL: November settled $89.43, -$1.68 (-1.84%) on Monday, reconciling with Friday's $91.11. MarketWatch's settlement matches Investrade. It is $87.84, -$1.59 (-1.78%) now, range $87.10-$90.05. That is a third straight day lower and the lowest since early September (Trading Economics)
• Brent: December settled $100.32, -$1.93 (-1.89%), reconciling with $102.25. It is $98.60, -$1.72 (-1.71%) now, range $97.91-$100.99. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to about $10.75, from about $12.30 on Monday morning
• The mechanism: supply is coming back faster than risk is building. Saudi Arabia says flows through the East-West Pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels. Middle East exports beat pre-war levels on four days in the last week of September (Trading Economics). Newsquawk puts Gulf flows at 10.3 million barrels a day, about 76% of the pre-war level. Saudi Arabia cut its November price for Arab Light to Asia, the G7 is releasing 100 million barrels, and OPEC+ kept November targets unchanged. The Houthi-Saudi fighting and Hormuz are still unresolved, but they are not stopping the decline at the moment. API inventories are at 16:30
• GC: December settled $4,156.80, -$5.50 (-0.13%) on Monday, reconciling with Friday's $4,162.30. MarketWatch and Investrade agree. It is $4,181.40, +$24.60 (+0.59%) now, range $4,130.70-$4,185.90. Gold fell on Monday as the 10-year closed at a 24-year high. It is higher this morning as yields and the dollar ease. That is consistent with gold trading on real rates rather than as a haven
• Rates. 10-year 5.276%, -3.6bp from Monday's 5.312% close, which was +2.9bp on the day (Tullett, via MarketWatch). 2-year 4.814%, -0.9bp from 4.823%. Monday's 2-year close was -1.6bp, so Monday's move was all at the long end. 30-year 5.633% from 5.665%. 2s10s is about 46bp. The 3-year note auction is at 13:00 (prior 4.474%)

Where We Left Off

• Monday's RTH close, per AP: Dow 51,267.90 (+90.94, +0.2%) · S&P 500 7,773.95 (+51.23, +0.7%) · Nasdaq Composite 27,477.31 (+286.45, +1.1%), a record · Russell 2000 2,847.14 (+14.24, +0.5%). All four reconcile with Friday's published closes, and MarketWatch matches all four. The Nasdaq-100 rose 0.87% to a record 31,076.44. The S&P is 0.3% below its summer record. Dow Transports fell 1.09%. The VIX closed at 15.43
• Stocks rose while long-dated yields hit a 24-year high. Big tech and M&A led: Schneider Electric's $22.6B bid for PTC and C.H. Robinson's $5.8B deal for RXO. Brazil's Bovespa rose 7.7% after its election
• What carries over: the S&P is close to a record with the 10-year above 5.3% at Monday's close. So far equities have ignored the rise in long-dated yields because hike odds for October are low. December hike pricing is high, and that is the risk this rally has not had to face yet

Yesterday's Data

• ISM services 54.9, but prices paid hit 74.0, highest since July 2022; hiring back above 50

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

06:00 · Logistics Managers' Index, Sep (out: 70.2) · n/a · 66.6 · USD

07:40 · ECB's Buch speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

08:15 · ADP NER Pulse, weekly · n/a · 20K · USD · ES

08:30 · US trade balance, Aug · -$102.0B · -$88.6B · USD · ES

08:30 · Canada trade balance, Aug · C$1.7B · C$0.77B · 6C

08:55 · Redbook same-store sales y/y · n/a · 8.2% · ES

09:00 · ECB's Elderson and Cipollone speak · n/a · n/a · 6E

09:05 · Fed's Williams speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · ES/NQ · GC

10:00 · Ivey PMI, Sep · 65.2 · 64.3 · 6C

10:00 · RCM/TIPP economic optimism, Oct · 44.5-45.8 · 45.6 · USD

10:45 · Fed's Bowman speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · ES

11:30 · 6-week bill auction · n/a · 3.970% · USD

13:00 · 3-year note auction · n/a · 4.474% · USD · ES · GC

16:30 · API crude inventories · n/a · +1.0M bbl · CL

After close · Constellation Brands Q2 earnings · EPS $3.56 · n/a · ES

The calendar was built from TradingView's economic calendar and cross-checked against Trading Economics. Both list the same US events. The 08:30 slot has the trade balance. Tuesday's fixed weekly releases are both included: the ADP NER Pulse at 08:15 and API at 16:30. The ADP prior of 20K is the four weeks to 5 September, the latest weekly estimate the desk could find. The trade consensus is from both sources. The RCM/TIPP consensus differs between them, so the table shows both. The Logistics Managers' Index is already out. Fed's Logan speaks at 18:00, after the session.

The fulcrum is the Fed speakers, not the data. The trade balance rarely moves futures much, and a deficit near $102B would be wider than July. Williams is the FOMC's vice chair and votes at every meeting. His view on whether October is still live matters more after the ISM prices index jumped and the 10-year hit 5.3%. A hawkish Williams with long yields already near their highs is the main risk to the record in NQ. Bowman's talk is a banking-conference keynote and may not cover policy. At 13:00, the 3-year auction tests demand at the front end.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth about 5.9 Dow points (divisor about 0.168, secondary source; treat these as approximate). Closes and pre-market quotes are from MarketWatch, about 06:35 ET.

• NVDA $238.90, +$4.95 (+2.12%), a record close, the largest weight in both ES and NQ. MSFT +1.48%, META +1.90%, TSLA +2.20% and AVGO +2.08% carried the Nasdaq-100 to its record. AAPL -0.24% was the main mega-cap exception. NVDA is +0.81% and MSFT +0.60% pre-market
• GS $893.46, -$9.10 (-1.01%), worth about -54 Dow points, the largest single drag on the Dow. V +$9.05 (+2.51%) added about +54, MSFT about +46 and UNH +$6.68 (+1.80%) about +40. CRM -$4.90 (-2.09%) took about -29. That is most of why the Dow rose only 0.18% against 0.66% for the S&P. The desk could not source a catalyst for the GS fall
• PTC $192.26, +$48.23 (+33.49%), an S&P 500 name, after Schneider Electric agreed to buy it for $205 a share, $22.6B (Investrade). The stock closed $12.74, or about 6.2%, below the offer price. Its index weight is small; the deal matters more as a sign of M&A demand for industrial software
• CHRW $140.61, -$17.11 (-10.85%), an S&P 500 name, after agreeing to buy RXO for $30.25 a share, $5.8B. RXO rose 22.54% to $28.65. CHRW was the main reason the Dow Transports fell 1.09%

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Monday's calls. We asked whether EUR/USD would stay below 1.1215. It did not: it closed at 1.1223 and is 1.1246 now. We asked whether ISM services prices would confirm manufacturing. They did: 74.0, the highest since July 2022. We asked whether Brent would hold above $100. It held on Monday, settling at $100.32, and broke below overnight. We asked whether NQ could reach 31,282.50. It did: 31,371.00 on Monday and 31,455.25 overnight
• Whether ES clears 7,848.50. The overnight high is one tick below. The S&P cash index is 0.3% below its record. A new high in ES with the 10-year above 5.25% would mean equities are still not reacting to long-dated yields
• Whether the 10-year stays below Monday's 5.312% close. Lower oil is helping. If Williams sounds hawkish, or the 3-year auction is weak, yields could return to Monday's levels
• Whether French yields keep falling. That is what is driving the euro's bounce today. If the French 10-year moves back toward 4.9%, the dollar is likely to retest its 52-week high
• Whether WTI holds near $87. That is close to the one-month low. Any sign that Gulf flows are slowing again, or new strikes on Saudi sites, would test the supply story. API data at 16:30 is the next US input

The Bottom Line

The moves overnight are in oil and rates. Brent is below $100 and WTI is at a one-month low because Gulf exports are recovering, and lower oil is pulling the 10-year back from its highest close since 2002. That has helped ES reach within a tick of its record and NQ set a new high. The euro has bounced as French yields eased. For today, the trade balance is unlikely to matter much; the Fed speakers are the main event, with Williams at 09:05 first. With December hike odds high, any Fed comment on the timing of the next hike could move the 10-year back toward Monday's highs.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._