Calendar › Empire State manufacturing survey › 2026-10-15
Empire State 25.5 vs 10.3 Est — Highest Since December 2021 as New Orders Jump 21 Points
Fundamentals · 2026-10-15
The Empire State general business conditions index rose 17.9 points to 25.5 in October, against a 10.3 consensus, the highest since December 2021; new orders +21.2 to 23.2, also the highest since December 2021; shipments +16.3 to 13.1, back positive; unfilled orders 14.0, delivery times 19.8, inventories 11.6; supply availability −15.1, the worst since June 2022; prices paid 59.5 (−3.6 from a four-year high), prices received 30.6 (+2.5); employment 10.3, workweek 9.1; forward, future conditions fell 8.0 to 21.0, in the bottom fifth of the survey's history, while expected prices paid rose to 70.9, the highest since April 2022, and expected prices received to 48.0. Responses collected 2-9 October.
What It Changes
- September's demand stall reversed in full. The headline beat 10.3 consensus (TradingEconomics) by 15.2 points, and new orders went from 2.0 to 23.2. The "demand stopped" reading this feed took from September did not survive a month.
- The cost side did not ease with it. Prices paid slipped only to 59.5, still in the 90th percentile, and expected prices paid rose to 70.9, the highest since April 2022. Firms with rising orders also expect costs to keep climbing.
- It runs opposite to Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Fed survey, released at the same time, had new orders falling 24.9 points to 4.3. The two districts swapped places in a month. Read together, they say regional manufacturing is volatile, not turning in one direction.
- Firms are less upbeat about what comes next. Future conditions fell to 21.0, below current conditions, and in the bottom fifth of the survey's 304 months. A strong month with soft expectations is a reason to be careful about calling a trend.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — a strong activity beat with rising price expectations supports the hike case, but it printed in the same minute as hot PPI, soft retail sales and a weak Philadelphia survey, and its own effect cannot be separated.
- Across the 08:30 cluster, DXY was +0.02% from 08:29 to 08:49 ET and is −0.37% on the day. The 2-year yield rose about 5bp after 08:30 and gave most of it back.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — stronger orders are good for cyclicals, but rising cost expectations keep the Fed's inflation problem live.
- ES −0.06%, NQ −0.04% from 08:29 to 08:49 ET; YM +0.39% and RTY +0.10% on the day. The read is strongest for RTY and YM, the cyclical and domestic end of the market.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — higher expected prices support higher real rates, but gold is +1.35% on the day at 08:49 ET on the haven bid, and one regional survey does not change that.
Inside The Number
The general business conditions index came in at 25.5, up 17.9 points from September's 7.6, against a consensus of 10.3. That is the highest since December 2021, when it read 34.4, and ranks 29th of 304 months since July 2001, above 91% of the survey's history. The full-history average is 6.5. 44.4% of firms reported better conditions and 18.9% worse, against 33.9% and 26.3% in September.
Demand did the work. New orders rose 21.2 points to 23.2, also the highest since December 2021 and the 11th-largest monthly rise on record. 42.9% of firms reported higher orders and 19.7% lower. Shipments rose 16.3 points to 13.1, back above zero after September's −3.2. Averaged together, the two demand lines went from −0.6 in September to 18.2 in October. Unfilled orders rose 8.1 points to 14.0, in the 95th percentile, so orders are arriving faster than firms can ship them.
Supply is still tight. Delivery times held long at 19.8, also in the 95th percentile. Supply availability fell 3.2 points to −15.1, the worst reading since June 2022: 18.6% of firms said supplies were less available and only 3.5% said more. Inventories rose 2.7 points to 11.6, the highest since July 2025. Longer lead times and building stock are what firms do when they expect parts to be scarce.
Prices eased slightly from a high. Prices paid fell 3.6 points to 59.5, from September's 63.1, which was the highest since July 2022. 60.5% of firms reported paying more and 1.0% less. Prices received rose 2.5 points to 30.6, the highest since June, with 33.6% of firms raising their own prices. The gap between paid and received narrowed to 28.9 points from 35.0, so firms passed a little more of their costs on.
Labour was steady. The number of employees index held at 10.3, a ninth consecutive positive month. The average workweek fell 7.9 points to 9.1, after September's 17.0, which was the highest since November 2021. Hours remain longer than normal; the survey's average is 1.3.
The forward indicators are where the caution sits. Future general business conditions fell 8.0 points to 21.0, the lowest since April, and rank 253rd of 304, in the bottom fifth of the survey's history, whose average is 34.5. Future new orders fell to 22.4 and future employment held at 19.5. Future capital spending was 14.0, below its 18.6 average, and future supply availability fell to −11.6, the third-lowest in its short history. So firms reported a strong October and expect a slower six months.
And the price expectations rose again. Expected prices paid rose 3.6 points to 70.9, the highest since April 2022, 11th of 304 months, with 74.4% of firms expecting higher costs. Expected prices received rose 5.7 points to 48.0, in the 94th percentile, with 53.5% expecting to raise their own prices. Both sit near their highs of the past four years. The New York Fed summed it up: expectations for price increases "have become more widespread."
There is a pattern in the data. Prices paid above 55 with new orders above 20 has happened 16 times in 304 months. Fourteen fall in two periods: 2004-05 and 2021 to April 2022. The other two are May 2026 and October 2026. It is the combination of strong demand and strong cost pressure that marked the 2021 run-up in inflation. One regional survey is a small sample, but it is the combination the Fed watches most closely.
The Internals
Current indicators, October against September:
Index · October · September · Change · Read
General business conditions · 25.5 · 7.6 · +17.9 · Highest since December 2021; beat by 15.2
New orders · 23.2 · 2.0 · +21.2 · Highest since December 2021
Shipments · 13.1 · −3.2 · +16.3 · Back positive
Unfilled orders · 14.0 · 5.9 · +8.1 · 95th percentile
Delivery time · 19.8 · 18.8 · +1.0 · Still long, 95th percentile
Inventories · 11.6 · 8.9 · +2.7 · Highest since July 2025
Prices paid · 59.5 · 63.1 · −3.6 · Off a four-year high, 90th percentile
Prices received · 30.6 · 28.1 · +2.5 · Highest since June
Number of employees · 10.3 · 10.6 · −0.3 · Ninth positive month
Average workweek · 9.1 · 17.0 · −7.9 · Still above normal
Supply availability · −15.1 · −11.9 · −3.2 · Worst since June 2022
Responses behind the main indexes:
Index · Higher · Lower · Diffusion
General business conditions · 44.4% · 18.9% · 25.5
New orders · 42.9% · 19.7% · 23.2
Shipments · 37.1% · 23.9% · 13.1
Unfilled orders · 26.7% · 12.8% · 14.0
Prices paid · 60.5% · 1.0% · 59.5
Prices received · 33.6% · 2.9% · 30.6
Number of employees · 20.0% · 9.8% · 10.3
Supply availability · 3.5% · 18.6% · −15.1
Expectations six months ahead:
Index · October · September · Change · Read
Future general business conditions · 21.0 · 29.0 · −8.0 · Lowest since April; bottom fifth of history
Future new orders · 22.4 · 25.3 · −2.9 · Bottom fifth of history
Future shipments · 26.2 · 25.5 · +0.7 · Steady
Future unfilled orders · 14.0 · 5.9 · +8.1 · More backlog expected
Future delivery time · 11.6 · 7.9 · +3.7 · Longer lead times expected
Future inventories · 9.3 · 9.9 · −0.6 · Steady
Future prices paid · 70.9 · 67.3 · +3.6 · Highest since April 2022
Future prices received · 48.0 · 42.3 · +5.7 · 94th percentile
Future number of employees · 19.5 · 20.0 · −0.5 · Hiring expected
Future average workweek · −3.5 · −4.0 · +0.5 · Shorter hours expected
Future capital expenditures · 14.0 · 14.9 · −0.9 · Below its 18.6 average
Future supply availability · −11.6 · −8.9 · −2.7 · Third-lowest since the series began in 2024
Where this month's readings sit in 304 months since July 2001, from the New York Fed's historical data:
Reading · Value · Rank from the top · Last month higher or lower
Future prices paid · 70.9 · 11th, 97th percentile · Last higher: April 2022, at 72.7
Inventories · 11.6 · 14th, 95th percentile · Last higher: July 2025, at 15.6
Unfilled orders · 14.0 · 15th, 95th percentile · Last higher: August 2026, at 15.5
Future prices received · 48.0 · 19th, 94th percentile · Last higher: August 2026, at 48.7
Prices received · 30.6 · 23rd, 93rd percentile · Last higher: June 2026, at 31.4
New orders · 23.2 · 26th, 92nd percentile · Last higher: December 2021, at 25.9
General business conditions · 25.5 · 29th, 91st percentile · Last higher: December 2021, at 34.4
Prices paid · 59.5 · 30th, 90th percentile · Last higher: September 2026, at 63.1
Future general business conditions · 21.0 · 253rd, 17th percentile · Last lower: April 2026, at 19.6
Supply availability · −15.1 · 52nd of 61, since 2021 · Last lower: June 2022, at −24.1
The headline, demand and prices over the past year:
Month · General conditions · New orders · Shipments · Prices paid · Prices received · Future prices paid
November 2025 · 13.5 · 9.6 · 11.5 · 50.1 · 25.3 · 62.5
December 2025 · −3.7 · −1.0 · −5.0 · 44.2 · 25.4 · 55.4
January 2026 · 7.7 · 6.6 · 16.3 · 42.8 · 14.4 · 52.6
February 2026 · 7.1 · 5.8 · −1.0 · 49.1 · 22.2 · 57.6
March 2026 · −0.2 · 6.4 · −6.9 · 36.6 · 21.4 · 43.1
April 2026 · 11.0 · 19.3 · 20.2 · 51.0 · 21.8 · 61.6
May 2026 · 19.6 · 22.7 · 18.9 · 62.6 · 31.8 · 62.1
June 2026 · 5.7 · 3.5 · 8.6 · 61.0 · 31.4 · 59.4
July 2026 · 15.6 · 22.2 · 24.4 · 52.3 · 27.6 · 53.0
August 2026 · 20.6 · 17.3 · 11.7 · 58.6 · 22.7 · 57.7
September 2026 · 7.6 · 2.0 · −3.2 · 63.1 · 28.1 · 67.3
October 2026 · 25.5 · 23.2 · 13.1 · 59.5 · 30.6 · 70.9
New York against Philadelphia, October:
Index · Empire, New York · Philadelphia · Read
General activity · 25.5, up 17.9 · 20.9, down 16.9 · Crossed in opposite directions
New orders · 23.2, up 21.2 · 4.3, down 24.9 · The sharpest divergence in the pair
Shipments · 13.1, up 16.3 · 15.3, down 12.4 · Now similar levels
Unfilled orders · 14.0, up 8.1 · 2.4, down 18.0 · New York building backlog
Delivery times · 19.8, up 1.0 · 8.5, down 18.0 · New York supply still tight
Prices paid · 59.5, down 3.6 · 43.2, down 5.4 · Both off their highs
Prices received · 30.6, up 2.5 · 40.1, up 8.8 · Both rising; Philadelphia faster
Employment · 10.3, down 0.3 · 9.1, down 2.7 · Almost identical
Future general activity · 21.0, down 8.0 · 33.0, down 19.9 · Both less upbeat
Future prices paid · 70.9, up 3.6 · 62.9, down 8.4 · New York's cost expectations still rising
What The Firms Actually Said
- The New York Fed's summary: "New York State manufacturing activity rose sharply in October, with the headline index reaching its highest level in nearly five years," said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor. He added that "the pace of price increases remained elevated."
- On prices ahead: the release says both future price indexes "climbed further from already elevated levels, suggesting that expectations for price increases have become more widespread."
- On supply: supply availability is "expected to worsen," and the current index is at its lowest since June 2022.
- On investment: "capital spending plans remained modest." The future capital expenditures index, at 14.0, is in the bottom third of its history. That contrasts with Philadelphia, where 52% of firms plan higher capital spending next year.
- No special question was published this month.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed Empire at a 10.3 consensus after 7.6, tagged for USD and ES, inside the 08:30 cluster it framed around PPI and retail sales — The Open. It printed 25.5, the strongest beat of the morning, but in the same minute as a weak Philadelphia survey that offset it.
What This Sets Up
- Next Empire survey: November, expected Monday, 16 November, 8:30am ET, after the 27-28 October FOMC.
- The read to confirm or break is whether new orders hold above 20. New orders have swung by about 20 points four times since May. A second month above 20 would make October a turn rather than another swing.
- Watch expected prices paid. At 70.9 it is at a four-and-a-half-year high and has risen two months running. A move above April 2022's 72.7 would take it past every reading since the 2022 inflation peak.
- Watch the gap with Philadelphia. The two districts moved 46 points apart on new orders in one month. November will show which one was the outlier.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, published at 8:30am ET around the 15th of each month. It has run monthly since July 2001 and asks a panel of manufacturers in New York State whether conditions, orders, shipments, employment, prices and supply rose, fell or stayed the same, now and six months ahead. The headline general business conditions index is a separate question, not an average of the components.
- Why it matters: It is the first manufacturing read each month, two weeks ahead of ISM. With inflation hot in both CPI and PPI and an FOMC on 27-28 October, the price indexes show whether producers expect cost pressure to keep building, and new orders show whether demand can absorb it.
- How to read it: Each index is a diffusion index: the share of firms reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease, so zero is the line between growth and contraction, and the data are seasonally adjusted. Read new orders and shipments to see what drives the headline, compare prices paid with prices received for margin pressure, and check the forward indexes for whether firms expect the month to last. The panel is small and the series swings 15 to 20 points in a month routinely, so read it alongside Philadelphia and ISM.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._