Euro breaks to a new low. Futures shrug off Aramco

Rundown · 2026-10-05

The weekend's biggest move is in the dollar, not in stock futures. EUR/USD fell to 1.1162 overnight, a new 52-week low, and is 1.1206, -0.43% at 07:55 ET. DXY made a new 52-week high of 102.54 and is 102.25, +0.32. French bond stress spread to Italy and Belgium, per Saxo. There is no Monday gap. ES opened Sunday at 7,781.50 against a 7,777.25 settle (+4.25, +0.05%), NQ at 31,059.00 against 31,061.75 (-2.75, -0.01%) and YM at 51,486 against 51,477 (+9, +0.02%). All three traded back through Friday's settle within the session. That is despite Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco sites on Saturday and Iran's parliament speaker saying on Sunday that Hormuz stays closed until the US meets seven conditions. WTI is $90.32, -0.87%, Brent $102.62, +0.36%. October hike odds are about 17%-23% after Friday's 29K payrolls. There is no 08:30 US release today. ISM services at 10:00 (55.0 expected) is the only print likely to move anything. _Timing note: this brief was finished at about 08:00 ET, later than the usual 06:30. Nothing on the US calendar has printed yet._

Overnight

Against Friday's settles, as of about 06:45 ET (delayed, MarketWatch). ES (Dec) 7,771.25, -6.00 (-0.08%) from 7,777.25 · NQ 31,006.75, -55.00 (-0.18%) from 31,061.75 · YM 51,439, -38 (-0.07%) from 51,477 · RTY 2,853.5, +2.6 (+0.09%) from 2,850.9
Friday's settles reconcile with Thursday's. ES +53.25 (+0.69%) from 7,724.00 · NQ +301.25 (+0.98%) from 30,760.50 · YM +236 (+0.46%) from 51,241 · RTY +24.0 (+0.85%) from 2,826.9
Reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges so far: ES 7,760.25-7,793.00 · NQ 30,957.50-31,221.25 · YM 51,354-51,560 · RTY 2,843.8-2,860.7. All four are trading in the lower half of their ranges. The NQ 52-week high is 31,282.50, about 60 points above the overnight high. The ES 52-week high is 7,848.50
Asia was higher. Nikkei 69,946.86, +1,637.40 (+2.40%), recovering Friday's 0.94% fall and more. The yen weakened, with USD/JPY back above 158, but the desk could not source a single catalyst for the size of the move. Hang Seng 24,040.34, +68.05 (+0.28%). Mainland China is closed until 8 October for Golden Week; early holiday data point to flat traffic and softer spending, per Saxo
Europe is firmer, except France. DAX 25,294.37, +0.25% · FTSE 100 10,523.73, +0.59% · STOXX 600 634.86, +0.56% · CAC 40 7,853.44, -0.55% (mid-session, MarketWatch). Final September PMIs were in line: euro-area services 53.0, composite 53.1. UK services was 52.1 against 51.7. Euro-area August PPI was 8.2% y/y against 8.1%
The weekend in the Middle East. The Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais on Saturday 3 October. On Sunday 4 October, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Hormuz stays closed until Washington meets seven conditions. Saudi Arabia is reported to be planning an offensive against the Houthis in Yemen (Reuters, via Benzinga). The desk could not verify any damage assessment for the Aramco sites. Iran has still not answered the US counterproposal delivered through Qatar last Wednesday

The Dollar & FX

DXY 102.25, +0.32 (+0.31%) from Friday's 101.93 (ICE, via MarketWatch), range 101.86-102.54. 102.54 is a new 52-week high, above Thursday's 102.21. The dollar is not rising because of the Fed: Friday's payrolls cut hike odds sharply. It is rising because the euro is falling
6E is carrying the move, and the reason is still France. EUR/USD 1.1206, -0.0048 (-0.43%) from 1.1254, range 1.1162-1.1265. 1.1162 is a new 52-week low, below Thursday's 1.1215. France's 10-year yield reached 4.942% this morning before easing to 4.844% (Tullett, via MarketWatch), against 3.471% for the Bund. That is a spread of about 137bp. It was about 86bp at the start of September. Investors are pricing France's 2027 budget fight and political fragmentation, and the selling spread to Italian and Belgian bonds on Friday, per Saxo. ECB speakers today: Donnery (07:45) and Buch (10:15). Lane and Schnabel spoke earlier this morning
6B is holding up better than the euro. GBP/USD 1.3226, -0.0015 (-0.11%) from 1.3241, range 1.3190-1.3252. EUR/GBP fell to about 0.8465, per Saxo. UK services PMI beat at 52.1
6C is at a 52-week high. USD/CAD 1.4260, +0.0010 (+0.07%) from 1.4250, range 1.4225-1.4297. 1.4297 is a new 52-week high, above last week's 1.4265. Lower WTI and the broad dollar bid are both working against CAD. Canada's services PMI is at 09:30 (prior 46.8)
6J and 6A are steady. USD/JPY 158.23, +0.38 (+0.24%) from 157.85, range 157.44-158.29. AUD/USD 0.6959, +0.0008 (+0.12%) from 0.6951, range 0.6931-0.6968
October hike odds: about 17%-23%. Polymarket has a 25bp October hike at 16.5% and a hold at 83.5% (live market, 08:00 ET). CME FedWatch was about 22%-23% in weekend coverage. Before Friday's payrolls, the desk had odds at about 25%-28%. A week ago they were about 64%. The FOMC meets 27-28 October. There are no Fed speakers on today's calendar (Trading Economics)

Energy & Metals

CL: November settled $91.11, -$1.76 (-1.90%) on Friday. MarketWatch's settlement matches wire reports, and it reconciles with Thursday's $92.87. It is $90.32, -$0.79 (-0.87%) now, range $89.31-$91.88. Friday's fall came after the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and fuel over four months, with a large diesel release in the first 20 days
Brent: December settled $102.25, -$0.06 (-0.06%), reconciling with $102.31. It is $102.62, +$0.37 (+0.36%) now, range $100.65-$103.40. The Brent-WTI spread is about $12.30
The mechanism: Middle East risk is supporting Brent, while extra supply is weighing on WTI. The Aramco strikes and Ghalibaf's comments support the international benchmark. Against that, the WSJ reports this morning that Saudi Arabia cut its crude prices for Asia because exports are recovering, and the G7 release is aimed at the US and European fuel markets. Aramco's CEO also said this morning that oil inventories could take two years to rebuild (WSJ). That is a reason for a higher floor, not a reason for higher prices today
GC: December settled $4,162.30, -$40.00 (-0.95%) on Friday. MarketWatch's settlement reconciles with Thursday's $4,202.30. The desk could not get a second source for the settle this morning. It is $4,182.20, +$19.90 (+0.48%) now, range $4,152.30-$4,198.90. Silver is +3.0%. Gold fell on Friday even though payrolls were weak, because Treasury yields rose. This morning it is higher even though the dollar is stronger, which suggests some haven buying after the weekend's Middle East news
Rates. 10-year 5.281%, -0.2bp from Friday's 5.283% close (Tullett, via MarketWatch), range 5.253%-5.294%. 2-year 4.829%, -1.0bp from 4.839%, range 4.791%-4.839%. 30-year 5.631%. 2s10s is about 45bp. Yields rose on Friday despite the weak jobs data: the 2-year +3.7bp and the 10-year +4.1bp. They fell after 08:30 and then reversed higher during the session, per Yahoo Finance

Where We Left Off

Friday's RTH close, per AP: Dow 51,176.96 (+250.40, +0.5%) · S&P 500 7,722.72 (+56.27, +0.7%) · Nasdaq Composite 27,190.86 (+319.27, +1.2%) · Russell 2000 2,832.90 (+26.27, +0.9%). All four reconcile with Thursday's published closes (the Nasdaq to within 0.01). MarketWatch matches all four independently. The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.00% to a record 30,807.93. The VIX closed at 15.31. For the week, the S&P was -0.3%, the Dow -1.3%, the Nasdaq +0.5% and the Russell -0.2%
Stocks rose on softer jobs data, led by chips. Payrolls were +29K against 90K expected, unemployment rose to 4.2% and wages rose only 0.1%. Nvidia hit an intraday record. Treasury yields fell after the release and then rose again, so the rally was about lower hike odds, not lower yields
What carries over: equities are near records while the 10-year is at 5.28%, close to its 52-week high of 5.347%. That works as long as the Fed is expected to hold. The dollar is strong for European reasons, not US ones

Yesterday's Data

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

07:45 · ECB's Donnery speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

09:20 · NY Fed bill purchases, 4-12 months · n/a · n/a · USD

09:30 · Canada S&P Global services PMI, Sep · n/a · 46.8 · 6C

09:45 · S&P Global US services PMI final, Sep · 58.7 · 56.5 · USD · ES

09:45 · S&P Global US composite PMI final, Sep · 58.4 · 56.0 · USD · ES

10:00 · ISM services PMI, Sep · 55.0 · 55.4 · USD · ES/NQ · GC

10:00 · ISM services prices paid, Sep · 72.9 · 72.6 · USD · GC · 6J

10:00 · ISM services employment, Sep · 48.0 · 47.8 · USD · ES

10:15 · ECB's Buch speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

11:30 · 3-month and 6-month bill auctions · n/a · 4.110% · 4.285% · USD

Any time · Iran, Houthi and Saudi developments · n/a · n/a · CL · GC · USD

The calendar was enumerated from TradingView's economic calendar and cross-checked against Trading Economics. Both carry the same US releases. The 08:30 slot is genuinely empty: neither source lists a US release before 09:20. Monday has no fixed weekly US release. Consensus figures are from TradingView and Trading Economics; where the ISM sub-index consensus comes from Trading Economics alone, treat it as approximate.

The fulcrum is ISM services, and the prices index matters as much as the headline. Last week's manufacturing ISM showed prices paid jumping to 77.9. If services prices are also well above 72.6, that supports the hawks after a weak payrolls report and could lift the 2-year back toward Friday's high. A headline below 55 with softer prices would add to Friday's message on the labour market. The employment index has been below 50 for months, so a reading under 48 would be consistent with payrolls.

This week: the trade balance on Tuesday and FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 14:00.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth about 5.9 Dow points (divisor about 0.168, secondary source; treat these as approximate). Closes and pre-market quotes are from MarketWatch, about 07:55 ET.

CAT $845.42, +$19.07 (+2.31%) on Friday, worth about +113 Dow points, nearly half of the Dow's 250-point gain. It is a second straight day as the Dow's largest contributor. UNH +$6.70 (+1.83%) added about +40, and GS +$5.89 (+0.66%) about +35. CAT is -0.39% pre-market
NVDA $233.95, +$3.09 (+1.34%) on Friday, the largest weight in both ES and NQ. It hit an intraday record of about $237.87 before giving back part of the move. AVGO +3.35%, AMZN +1.33%, AAPL +1.02% and MSFT +0.92% gave NQ its lead over YM. NVDA is +0.47% and MSFT +0.38% pre-market. MU -2.05% was the main chip-sector drag
TSLA $370.59, +$16.48 (+4.65%) on Friday after third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 beat estimates, per Yahoo Finance. It is a top-ten weight in both ES and NQ. It is -0.73% pre-market
NKE $33.87, -$1.28 (-3.64%) on Friday. It was -10.8% pre-market after cutting its sales outlook, so the stock recovered most of the early fall. That cost about -8 Dow points. IBM -$2.98 (-1.32%) took about -18

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Friday's calls. We asked whether the 2-year would rise back above 4.85%-4.90%. It did not: it closed at 4.839%, up 3.7bp. We asked whether EUR/USD would hold 1.1215. It held on Friday and broke to 1.1162 overnight. We asked whether WTI would hold below $90. It did not: it settled at $91.11. We asked whether Nike's fall would stay contained. It did: -3.64% at the close, against -10.8% pre-market
Whether EUR/USD stays below 1.1215. That was the old 52-week low. The French 10-year at 4.94% this morning is the driver. If French yields keep easing from that high, the euro has room to recover. If they rise again, the dollar's 52-week high is likely to be retested
Whether ISM services prices confirm last week's manufacturing jump. A strong prices index would move the 2-year more than the headline, because hike odds are already low
Whether Brent holds above $100 and the Brent-WTI spread keeps widening. A $12 spread shows that Middle East risk is affecting the international benchmark more than US crude. A confirmed Saudi offensive in Yemen or new strikes on Aramco would test it
Whether NQ can reach the 52-week high at 31,282.50. The overnight high was 31,221.25. Friday's record in the Nasdaq-100 came with a 10-year yield at 5.28%

The Bottom Line

The weekend brought strikes on Aramco and a hard line from Iran on Hormuz, but index futures opened exactly where they settled on Friday. The real move is in Europe: France's borrowing costs have pushed the euro to a 52-week low and the dollar to a 52-week high, even though Friday's payrolls cut Fed hike odds to about one in five. For a US trader, that makes 6E and DXY the clearest story this morning, and ISM services at 10:00 the only US data that can challenge it. Oil is split, with Brent supported by the Middle East and WTI held back by extra supply.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._