No Iran strikes before the vote. Chips bounce back

Rundown · 2026-10-09

Two things changed on Thursday, and both are still in the price. At midday the president posted that the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections" on 3 November, while keeping the naval blockade "in full force." Oil came off its highs and still settled up 4%: Brent $104.28, +$4.08 and WTI $91.49, +$3.21. This morning Brent is $102.85, -$1.43 (-1.37%) and WTI $90.56, -$0.93 (-1.02%). The second change was a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is about $50B, not the ~$70B the market had been using. That took NQ down 1.38% while YM finished up. Overnight that has partly reversed: NQ is 31,185.75, +216.25 (+0.70%), ES 7,841.00, +24.75 (+0.32%). Gold is the overnight outlier at $4,205.80, +$48.80 (+1.17%). No US data prints at 08:30. The first US release is UMich at 10:00, and Hurricane Isaias, now Category 2, is forecast to make landfall near Pensacola tonight. The bond market is closed Monday for Columbus Day, and CPI is Wednesday.

Overnight

Against Thursday's settles, as of 06:43 ET (MarketWatch, delayed). ES (Dec) 7,841.00, +24.75 (+0.32%) from 7,816.25 · NQ 31,185.75, +216.25 (+0.70%) from 30,969.50 · YM 51,504, +11 (+0.02%) from 51,493 · RTY 2,815.0, +5.4 (+0.19%) from 2,809.6
Thursday's settles reconcile with Wednesday's. ES -36.50 (-0.46%) from 7,852.75 · NQ -432.75 (-1.38%) from 31,402.25 · YM +44 (+0.09%) from 51,449 · RTY -2.6 (-0.09%) from 2,812.2. The ES change matches the cash S&P's -36.41 almost to the point
Reference levels, and nothing more. Globex ranges since 18:00 ET: ES 7,817.00-7,853.50 · NQ 30,953.00-31,266.50 · YM 51,489-51,628 · RTY 2,810.2-2,827.1. ES has spent the whole night above Thursday's settle; its overnight low is three-quarters of a point above it. The ES contract high is 7,897.50, from Tuesday
The index split from Thursday has reversed in order. NQ is leading overnight, YM is flat. This morning's bounce is in the stocks that fell on Thursday: NVDA +1.85%, MU +1.91%, AVGO +1.58%, ORCL +1.11% pre-market (see Index Movers)
Asia was mixed. Nikkei 69,030.92, -11.19 (-0.02%) · Hang Seng 24,211.35, +425.56 (+1.79%) · Shanghai Composite 3,813.79, +0.05% · ASX 200 +0.64%. Japan is closed on Monday for Health and Sports Day
Europe is up about 0.8%. DAX 25,040.33, +0.94% · FTSE 100 10,525.02, +0.80% · STOXX 600 630.54, +0.80% · CAC 40 7,775.73, +0.60% (mid-session, MarketWatch). That is a full turn from Thursday morning, when all four were down
Iran. The pledge followed The Atlantic's report on Wednesday that the White House had asked for strike options before the vote. Trump also described "productive discussions" with Tehran. The blockade of Iranian ports stays in place, and the tanker attacks in Hormuz have not stopped: Kpler data put Tuesday's tanker traffic at its lowest since late July (OilPrice, 8 October). So the pledge removes a scheduled escalation, not the existing disruption

The Dollar & FX

DXY 102.16, +0.02 (+0.02%) from Thursday's 102.14 (ICE, via MarketWatch, 06:43 ET), range 101.92-102.16. It fell 0.10 on Thursday from 102.24 as the 10-year dropped 6bp. It is now at the top of its overnight range. The 52-week high is 102.54, from Monday
6J is the pair carrying the dollar this morning. USD/JPY 158.31, +0.42 (+0.27%) from 157.89, range 157.76-158.43. The yen is the weakest major as US yields rise again and risk appetite improves, and Tokyo is shut on Monday. The 52-week high is 164.00
6A is the strongest. AUD/USD 0.6977, +0.0018 (+0.26%) from 0.6959, range 0.6955-0.6989. It is following the Hang Seng's 1.8% gain and copper +1.5%. Thursday morning it was the weakest major
6E is flat, 51 pips above its low. EUR/USD 1.1213, unchanged from 1.1213, range 1.1208-1.1246. It gained 15 pips on Thursday. The 52-week low is 1.1162, set Monday. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel speaks at 09:30 ET
6B. GBP/USD 1.3234, +0.0004 (+0.03%) from 1.3230, range 1.3224-1.3252. No UK event on today's calendar
6C has a live print. USD/CAD 1.4238, +0.0011 (+0.08%) from 1.4227, range 1.4207-1.4267, about 60 pips below its 52-week high of 1.4297. Canada's September jobs report is at 08:30: consensus +7K after -41.7K in August, unemployment 6.5% expected from 6.4% (TradingView). It is the only scheduled 08:30 release in North America today. Canada is closed Monday for Thanksgiving
Rates. 10-year 5.259%, +2.4bp from 5.235%, range 5.223%-5.262%. 2-year 4.797%, +3.7bp from 4.760%. 30-year 5.628%, +1.9bp. 2s10s is about 46bp, from about 53bp on Thursday morning. Treasury figures are Tullett Prebon via MarketWatch, 06:53 ET
October hike odds are roughly 16-20%, December about 75-81% (CME FedWatch-based figures and Polymarket, as reported Wednesday and Thursday). The desk could not pull a live FedWatch or Kalshi reading this morning, so treat these as approximate. Collins speaks at 16:00

Energy & Metals

CL: November settled $91.49, +$3.21 (+3.64%) on Thursday, reconciling with Wednesday's $88.28. It is $90.56, -$0.93 (-1.02%) now, range $90.01-$91.41. It was $92.76 at this time Thursday, so the settle came in about $1.30 below the morning high
Brent: December settled $104.28, +$4.08 (+4.07%), reconciling with $100.20. It is $102.85, -$1.43 (-1.37%) now, range $102.33-$104.09. The Brent-WTI spread is about $12.29, from $12.79 at the settle
The mechanism: one risk taken off the calendar, two still on it. The pledge took out the scheduled escalation, the possibility of US strikes before 3 November. It left two risks in place. One is the existing disruption: Hormuz tanker attacks continue and the blockade stays. The other is the Gulf of Mexico. Isaias is a Category 2 hurricane about 200 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi (NHC, via CNN and CBS), with a hurricane warning from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. Landfall is forecast tonight or early Saturday, between Gulf Shores and Pensacola. Producers have already shut in output. The 1.4% overnight drop happened with Isaias still offshore, so the storm is not yet in the price as a lasting outage. Shut-ins usually grow as a storm approaches and come back only after platforms are inspected, which means the first read on damage arrives after the close
Baker Hughes is at 13:00: oil rigs 456, total 598 last week
GC: December settled $4,157.00, +$16.30 (+0.39%) on Thursday, reconciling with $4,140.70. It is $4,205.80, +$48.80 (+1.17%) now, range $4,156.10-$4,233.70. Silver is +1.84% and copper +1.50%
Gold's overnight move does not have a clean cause. Thursday's small gain fit the usual pattern: the 10-year fell 6bp and the dollar slipped. This morning the 10-year is up 2.4bp and DXY is flat, and gold is still up more than 1%. Dow Jones attributes it to a softer dollar early in Asia and lower oil, but DXY is now at its overnight high. With silver and copper also up, the move looks like broad metals buying rather than a rates trade. The desk does not have a better explanation and is not inventing one

Where We Left Off

Thursday's RTH close, per AP: S&P 500 7,765.36 (-36.41, -0.5%) · Dow 51,231.64 (+51.77, +0.1%) · Nasdaq Composite 27,193.34 (-345.35, -1.3%) · Russell 2000 2,794.13 (+0.92, less than 0.1%). MarketWatch matches all four. All four reconcile with Wednesday's published closes (the Russell is off by one cent, a rounding difference; AP and MarketWatch agree on 2,794.13). The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% to 30,725.81, its worst day in seven weeks. Dow Transports rose 1.43% and the S&P MidCap 400 0.35%
The selloff was concentrated in AI and chips. The FT reported, and CNBC confirmed, that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50B at the end of September. A figure of about $68B had been widely reported last month. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down as much as 4% intraday (Yahoo Finance). Outside AI, the market was steady: small caps, mid caps, transports and the Dow all finished higher or flat
What carries over: The AI question is about how the spending gets financed, and one overnight bounce does not settle it. The 30-year auction passed. It sold $22B at 5.618%, the highest since 2000 and 31bp above September, with a 2.54 bid-to-cover against a 2.41 six-auction average, indirects 72.3% and dealers 6.8% (TFTC). The 10-year closed down 6bp on the day

Yesterday's Data

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · Canada employment change, Sep · +7K · -41.7K · 6C · CL

08:30 · Canada unemployment rate, Sep · 6.5% · 6.4% · 6C

09:30 · ECB's Schnabel speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

10:00 · UMich sentiment prelim, Oct · 47.6 · 48.1 · USD · ES/NQ

10:00 · UMich 1-yr inflation expectations prelim · n/a · 4.6% · USD · GC

10:00 · UMich 5-yr inflation expectations prelim · n/a · 3.4% · USD · GC

12:00 · USDA WASDE · n/a · n/a · n/a

13:00 · Baker Hughes oil rig count · n/a · 456 · CL

16:00 · Fed's Collins speaks · n/a · n/a · USD

The calendar was built from TradingView's economic calendar and cross-checked against Trading Economics. Both list the same US events, and both show nothing at 08:30. That is the second check: an empty 08:30 is a red flag on any weekday, so the slot was confirmed on both sources before writing this. September CPI is not until Wednesday. UMich current conditions (consensus 50.5, prior 50.9) and expectations (45.9, prior 46.3) are not tabled separately. Friday's one fixed weekly release, Baker Hughes, is included. ECB board member Cipollone spoke at 06:15 ET, before this went out. Monday: SIFMA recommends a full bond-market close for Columbus Day, so there is no cash Treasury trading. US stocks are open. Canada and Japan are both on holiday.

UMich at 10:00 is the only US print likely to move anything, and the number that matters is inflation expectations, not sentiment. The one-year expectation was 4.6% last month, and Brent has been above $100 for most of the survey window. A higher reading supports the December hike the market already prices. A lower one would ease pressure on the 2-year. The bigger events are outside the session: Isaias's landfall tonight, with oil markets shut until Sunday evening, and Wednesday's CPI. Positioning into a three-day bond weekend and a hurricane weekend is the real schedule today.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth about 5.9 Dow points (approximate). Closes and pre-market quotes are MarketWatch, about 06:55 ET.

NVDA $230.48, -$6.99 (-2.94%), the largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, at about $5.7T (MarketWatch). It was the largest single drag on the S&P, and about -41 Dow points. It is +1.85% pre-market at $234.75. The cause was the OpenAI revenue report, which raises the question of how AI infrastructure orders get paid for
AVGO $360.14, -4.35%, ORCL $135.19, -5.50%, MU $1,035.84, -4.79%, AMZN $254.06, -2.25%. These are the rest of the AI-financing trade, and why the Nasdaq-100 fell almost three times as much as the S&P. All four are up pre-market: AVGO +1.58%, ORCL +1.11%, MU +1.91%, AMZN +0.50%. Amazon also confirmed cutting fewer than 1,000 roles, mostly in retail
CAT $796.18, -$17.65 (-2.17%), worth about -104 Dow points, a second day of losses after Wednesday's -5.75%. It is +0.79% pre-market
HD $295.47, +$9.70 (+3.39%), worth about +57 Dow points, the Dow's largest gain. The desk could not find a company-specific catalyst. Coverage points to valuation buying near the bottom of its 52-week range. CVX $211.55, +$6.40 (+3.12%), about +38, on oil. IBM $226.61, +$6.10 (+2.77%), about +36. Those three together, about +131, are why the Dow finished up while the Nasdaq lost 1.3%. CVX is -0.54% pre-market as oil slips

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Thursday's calls. We asked whether the 10-year would clear 5.368%. It did not: it closed at 5.235% after the 30-year auction. We asked whether ES would hold below Wednesday's low of 7,815.75. It settled at 7,816.25, half a point above. We asked whether Brent would hold above $105 into the weekend. It did not: it settled $104.28 after the Iran pledge and is now $102.85. We asked whether gold would separate from yields. Not on Thursday, possibly this morning: GC is up 1.2% with the 10-year up 2.4bp
Whether the chip bounce holds through the cash open. NQ's overnight high is 31,266.50. Thursday's settle, 30,969.50, sits just above the overnight low of 30,953.00. A bounce that fades back to the settle would mean the OpenAI question is still open
Whether Brent holds above $102.33, its overnight low, as Isaias comes ashore. Later guidance has shifted the track slightly east, toward Pensacola. Production that comes back quickly would remove the last near-term supply risk. Damage to platforms or refineries would add it back
Whether gold holds above $4,200 if yields keep rising. It has risen through a higher 10-year overnight. If it holds through the cash session, the overnight move was more than a thin-market move
Whether USD/JPY holds above 158 into a weekend with Tokyo and the US bond market both closed Monday

The Bottom Line

Thursday took one risk off the calendar and added one. The Iran pledge removed the chance of US strikes before the vote, which took some of the war premium out of oil. The OpenAI report gave the AI trade its first real question about revenue, which hit the largest index weights. The overnight session has bought back some of the second. With nothing at 08:30, a three-day weekend in bonds, a hurricane making landfall tonight and CPI on Wednesday, the session is mostly about how much risk traders want to hold into the weekend, with UMich's inflation expectations at 10:00 as the one scheduled test.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._