Calendar › EIA weekly natural gas storage › 2026-10-15

Natural Gas +67 Bcf vs +76 Est — Shortfall to Normal Doubles to 23 Bcf, Surplus at 45

Fundamentals · 2026-10-15

Working gas in storage rose 67 Bcf in the week to 9 October against a 76 Bcf consensus (TradingEconomics), after +85 the week before, unrevised. That is 9 Bcf below the survey, 23 Bcf below the five-year average build of +90, the sixth straight week under the seasonal norm and a wider shortfall than last week's 11, and 13 Bcf below the year-ago +80. Total stocks 3,567 Bcf: 143 Bcf (−3.9%) below last year, from 130, and 45 Bcf (+1.3%) above the five-year average, from 68. Every region built less than normal. South Central +21 against a normal 31, with salt +9 against 15, to 236 Bcf, 21.9% below a year ago and 15.4% below its five-year average. Pacific drew 5 Bcf in October. Standard error on the net change 1.0 Bcf. Next release 22 October.

What It Changes

• A bullish surprise against consensus, and a step back against normal. 67 against 76 expected is a 9 Bcf miss to the tight side. Last week the shortfall to the five-year build had narrowed to 11 Bcf; this week it more than doubled to 23.
• The surplus is almost gone. Stocks are 45 Bcf above the five-year average, down from 118 four weeks ago. At this week's gap, two more such weeks would put them at or below normal before the heating season starts.
• The shortfall is everywhere, but deepest in the south. All five regions built less than their five-year norms. South Central was 10 Bcf short and Pacific, which drew, was 7 short.
• Salt went backwards against normal again. South Central salt kept refilling, but at 9 Bcf against a normal 15, so its gap to the five-year average widened to 15.4% from 14.0%.

Impact

• Natural Gas (NG) — Bullish — a build 9 Bcf below consensus and 23 below normal tightens the end-of-season picture.
• The front month rose 0.68% in the release minute, from its 10:29 close, and was up as much as 1.5% at the minute's high, on the heaviest one-minute volume around the release. By 10:40 ET it had given back most of that, +0.28% from 10:29, and +2.13% on the day.
• The level is still a cushion, but a thinner one. At 3,567 Bcf stocks are 45 Bcf above the five-year average and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range". The trajectory, not the total, is where the tightness shows.
• End-of-season arithmetic. Three weeks of injection remain to 30 October. At this week's 67 Bcf pace, stocks end near 3,770 Bcf; at last week's 85, near 3,820. Last week's equivalents were 3,770 and 3,840.
• USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.

Inside The Number

Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 67 Bcf in the week ending Friday 9 October, taking total stocks to 3,567 Bcf. Consensus was +76 Bcf (The Open, TradingEconomics), and the prior week's +85 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,500 is this week's starting point. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 1.0 Bcf, so the 9 Bcf miss is real, not sampling noise.

The seasonal comparison. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,432 Bcf to 3,522 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +90 Bcf. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,630 to 3,710, a +80 Bcf build. This week's 67 is 23 Bcf below the five-year norm and 13 below last year. The run of shortfalls against the five-year build is now 12, 29, 23, 16, 11 and 23 Bcf over six weeks. Three weeks of narrowing ended here.

Both level comparisons moved the tight way. Stocks are 45 Bcf above the five-year average (3,522 Bcf), a 1.3% surplus that narrowed by 23 from 68. They are 143 Bcf below a year ago (3,710 Bcf), a 3.9% deficit that widened by 13 from 130. Last week the two comparisons moved in opposite directions; this week both tightened.

Every region fell short. EIA publishes each region's year-ago and five-year stock in Bcf, so differencing them against last week's report gives each region's normal build:

• East built 22 Bcf against a five-year normal of 25 and a year-ago 24.
• Midwest built 27 against 30, year-ago 30.
• Mountain built 2 against 3, year-ago 4.
• Pacific drew 5 against a normal build of 2, year-ago 3.
• South Central built 21 against 31, year-ago 19. Inside it, salt injected 9 against a normal 15 and nonsalt 12 against 16.

Last week the shortfall sat in the East and Midwest, where stocks are comfortable. This week South Central accounts for 10 of the 23 Bcf, and Pacific for 7.

South Central is where the tightness is concentrated. At 1,097 Bcf it is 3.1% below its five-year average, from 2.3%, and 9.9% below a year ago. Salt rose to 236 Bcf, its second week of refilling after three weeks of draws in September, but at 9 Bcf against a normal 15 it fell further behind: 15.4% below its five-year average, from 14.0%, and 21.9% below a year ago, from 23.1%. The salt standard error is 0.6 Bcf. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps, and they are the tightest part of the system going into winter.

Why the build was small is not in the release. EIA reports storage, not supply or demand. Last week's brief noted that Hurricane Isaias had shut in Gulf of Mexico output ahead of a landfall on Friday night or Saturday, at the very end of this report week. Lost Gulf supply would show up first as a smaller South Central build, which is what happened, but this report cannot confirm it.

Pacific drew gas in October. A 5 Bcf withdrawal during injection season is unusual. Pacific stocks are still 6.5% above their five-year average at 294 Bcf, so it is a draw from a comfortable position, but it is the only region that went down.

The rest of the country is still above its own history. East holds 884 Bcf, 3.3% above its five-year average; Midwest 1,037 Bcf, 2.0% above; Mountain 255 Bcf, 5.4% above; Pacific 294 Bcf, 6.5% above. All four surpluses narrowed from last week.

The Internals

The headline against every benchmark:

Comparison · Value · Gap · Read

This week's build · +67 Bcf · n/a · The print

Consensus · +76 Bcf · −9 Bcf · Smaller build than expected

Prior week · +85 Bcf · −18 Bcf · Smaller build, prior unrevised

Five-year average build, this week · +90 Bcf · −23 Bcf · Sixth straight week below normal

Same week a year ago · +80 Bcf · −13 Bcf · Below last year

Standard error on the net change · 1.0 Bcf · n/a · A precise print

The shortfall against the five-year build, six weeks:

Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Shortfall

4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About 12 Bcf

11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · 29 Bcf

18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · 23 Bcf

25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · 16 Bcf

2 October · +85 Bcf · +96 Bcf · 11 Bcf

9 October · +67 Bcf · +90 Bcf · 23 Bcf

Stock levels:

Measure · 9 October · 2 October · Change

Total working gas · 3,567 Bcf · 3,500 Bcf · +67

Year-ago stocks · 3,710 Bcf · 3,630 Bcf · +80

Deficit to last year · −143 Bcf, −3.9% · −130 Bcf, −3.6% · Widened 13

Five-year average stocks · 3,522 Bcf · 3,432 Bcf · +90

Surplus to five-year average · +45 Bcf, +1.3% · +68 Bcf, +2.0% · Narrowed 23

Regional detail, Bcf:

Region · 9 Oct · 2 Oct · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year

East · 884 · 862 · +22 · 880 · +0.5% · 856 · +3.3%

Midwest · 1,037 · 1,010 · +27 · 1,027 · +1.0% · 1,017 · +2.0%

Mountain · 255 · 253 · +2 · 278 · −8.3% · 242 · +5.4%

Pacific · 294 · 299 · −5 · 307 · −4.2% · 276 · +6.5%

South Central · 1,097 · 1,076 · +21 · 1,218 · −9.9% · 1,132 · −3.1%

South Central salt · 236 · 227 · +9 · 302 · −21.9% · 279 · −15.4%

South Central nonsalt · 861 · 849 · +12 · 916 · −6.0% · 853 · +0.9%

Total Lower 48 · 3,567 · 3,500 · +67 · 3,710 · −3.9% · 3,522 · +1.3%

This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks:

Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build

East · +22 · +25 · −3 · +24

Midwest · +27 · +30 · −3 · +30

Mountain · +2 · +3 · −1 · +4

Pacific · −5 · +2 · −7 · +3

South Central · +21 · +31 · −10 · +19

South Central salt · +9 · +15 · −6 · +7

South Central nonsalt · +12 · +16 · −4 · +12

Total Lower 48 · +67 · +90 · −23 · +80

South Central salt, five weeks:

Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year

11 September · 222 Bcf · −5 · −24.0% · −8.3%

18 September · 217 Bcf · −5 · −27.2% · −12.5%

25 September · 213 Bcf · −4 · −27.3% · −15.5%

2 October · 227 Bcf · +14 · −23.1% · −14.0%

9 October · 236 Bcf · +9 · −21.9% · −15.4%

Where the injection season ends, on flat paces over the three remaining weeks to 30 October:

Weekly pace · Basis · End-October stocks

+85 Bcf · Last week · About 3,820 Bcf

+67 Bcf · This week, and the four-week average · About 3,770 Bcf

+50 Bcf · A slower finish · About 3,720 Bcf

Sampling precision, from EIA:

Region · Standard error on the net change

East · 0.3 Bcf

Midwest · 0.5 Bcf

Mountain · 0.3 Bcf

Pacific · 0.0 Bcf

South Central · 0.8 Bcf

South Central salt · 0.6 Bcf

South Central nonsalt · 0.5 Bcf

Total Lower 48 · 1.0 Bcf

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed EIA gas storage at 10:30 with a 76 Bcf consensus after 85 Bcf, tagged for NG — The Open. It printed 67 Bcf, a 9 Bcf miss to the tight side, and the front month added to its gain on the day.

What This Sets Up

• Next storage report: Thursday, 22 October, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 16 October (EIA).
• The read to confirm or break is whether the shortfall keeps widening. Another week 20 Bcf or more under the five-year build would leave stocks at or near the five-year average for the first time this season.
• Watch South Central salt. At 15.4% below normal it is the tightest part of the system. A normal or larger refill would ease the winter risk; another short week would deepen it.
• Watch the Gulf. If the smaller South Central build reflects hurricane shut-ins, next week's report covers the landfall itself and the restart that followed.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released Thursday at 10:30am ET. It estimates working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 from a sample of operators (Form EIA-912), in five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt reservoirs. The net change is the weekly build or draw, in billion cubic feet (Bcf).
• Why it matters: Storage is the buffer between supply and winter demand. October is the end of injection season, so each week's build sets how much gas the system carries into the heating season. The gap to the five-year average and to last year is what the market prices as tightness or slack.
• How to read it: Compare the build with consensus for the day's surprise, and with the five-year average build for the same week for the seasonal picture. Watch South Central salt, which can be drawn quickly in a cold snap, separately from the slower nonsalt reservoirs. Use the standard errors EIA publishes to judge whether a regional move is real or noise. The release reports storage, not why it changed, so weather, production and LNG exports explain the number only from other sources.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._