Calendar › CPI › 2026-10-14

CPI +0.6% (vs +0.6% Est) — Core Hits 0.3% Again, Three-Month Pace Jumps to 3.2%

Fundamentals · 2026-10-14

CPI +0.6% m/m as forecast, but +3.7% y/y against 3.6%; core +0.3% against 0.2% expected, the same as August, and core y/y 2.6% against 2.5%, up from 2.4%. Gasoline +9.1% was over half the headline on a 3.85% weight; energy +5.2% m/m and +20.4% y/y; fuel oil +15.3% m/m and +74.2% y/y. Shelter +0.4% after 0.3%, and this time owners' equivalent rent itself rose 0.3% from 0.2%, not just the hotels. Core goods +0.3%, the fastest in seven months, with used cars +0.7%. The two drags that held August down are gone: motor vehicle insurance +0.1% after −0.8%, medical care services +0.3% after −0.2%. Food unchanged. Core's three-month annualized pace is 3.2%, up from 2.0% a month ago.

What It Changes

• The headline did what everyone expected and the core did not. Headline 0.6% was the consensus and the energy story was priced. Core at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus (TradingEconomics) is the second straight miss on the one decimal that matters, and both annual rates came in a tenth above forecast.
• It breaks the "one month, not a trend" defence. After August, core's three-month annualized rate was 2.0%, below its own 2.4% twelve-month rate. A second 0.3% lifts the three-month rate to 3.2% and the six-month to 2.8%, both now above the 2.6% twelve-month rate. Core is accelerating on every window.
• It is the last CPI before the 27-28 October FOMC, with the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed) and the September minutes showing most officials expecting another hike by year end. A hot core with the August drags reversed is the evidence the hawks asked for: inflation spreading beyond energy.
• And it was a firm 0.3, not a rounded-up one. Weighting core's two halves (services +0.4%, goods +0.3%) gives roughly 0.38%. Even with both at the bottom of their rounding bands, it is about 0.33%.

Impact

• USD — Bullish — a second hot core print two weeks before a live meeting, with both annual rates above consensus.
• The first FX read is a dollar bid: by 08:36 ET, EUR/USD was −0.5% on the day after trading flat at 07:42, and USD/JPY +0.3%, up from +0.08%. EUR is 57.6% of the DXY basket, so the index follows the euro leg.
• The front end carries it. The 2-year yield closed at 4.79% and the 10-year at 5.21% (US Treasury) on 13 October. The 2-year already sits above the top of the funds range, so a hot core pushes against a curve that has priced some tightening, not none.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Bearish — the read is strongest for RTY, the most rate-sensitive of the four, which was up about 0.4% on the session going into the print.
• Equity went in flat and hedged, as The Open noted. A hot core with the August drags reversed means higher yields for longer, which weighs most on long-duration growth and small caps.
• Gold (GC) — Mixed, lean bearish — the rates leg says lower: a hot core lifts real yields, and the dollar is firmer.
• But gold fell through Tuesday and this morning while yields fell, the opposite of its usual behaviour. If it now rallies on a hot print with yields up, the selling was not about rates, and the regime has shifted from rates instrument back to haven.
• Crude (CL) — no directional read from this release — causation runs the other way. Crude prices CPI.
• The forward point is mechanical: energy contributed about 0.39 percentage points of this 0.6% headline on a 7.4% weight. WTI is up again this morning on new Hormuz shipping strikes, and that is October's basket.

Inside The Number

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after 0.4% in August, and 3.7% over twelve months before seasonal adjustment, up from 3.4%. Consensus was 0.6% and 3.6%. The monthly number landed exactly. The annual number was a tenth hot, and not marginally: unadjusted, it is 3.74%.

Core rose 0.3% after 0.3% in August, against a 0.2% consensus. Its twelve-month rate rose to 2.6% from 2.4%, against 2.5% expected. That one is closer to the line: unadjusted it is 2.56%, a hair over the rounding boundary. But the monthly figure is not marginal. Services less energy rose 0.4% and core goods 0.3%, and on their weights those halves add up to about 0.38%. This is a high 0.3.

The headline is gasoline, and BLS says so in its second paragraph: the gasoline index rose 9.1% and accounted for "over half of the monthly all items increase." The arithmetic agrees. Gasoline carries a 3.853% relative importance, so 9.1% contributes 0.351 percentage points, about 56% of the month. Energy as a whole rose 5.2% and contributed 0.386pp. Core contributed 0.237pp at the rounded 0.3%, and food contributed nothing. One caution on the gasoline line: before seasonal adjustment, gasoline rose 6.5%. September is normally a soft month for pump prices, so the seasonal factor added about 2.6 points to an increase that was already large.

The annual energy numbers are the ones to keep. Energy is up 20.4% over twelve months, from 16.3% in August. Gasoline is up 34.2%, energy commodities 35.3%, and fuel oil 74.2% after another 15.3% in the month. The meter is still calm by comparison: energy services rose 0.1%, electricity 0.2% and piped gas fell 0.3%. As in August, the inflation is in what gets burned in an engine. The transportation group as a whole is up 7.9% on the year.

Now the part that matters for the Fed: the August drags reversed, and core held at 0.3% anyway. Last month core reached 0.3% while medical care services fell 0.2% and motor vehicle insurance fell 0.8%. This month medical care services rose 0.3%, with hospital services up 0.7% and dental services up 0.5% after falling 0.6%. Motor vehicle insurance rose 0.1%, its first increase after two monthly declines, though it remains down 5.0% on the year. Health insurance fell another 0.2% and prescription drugs fell 1.2%, so not every drag is gone, but the two largest ones from August have flipped.

Shelter is the second change, and it is the more durable one. Shelter rose 0.4% after 0.3%, contributing about 0.14pp on a 35.3% weight. In August, about a third of shelter's contribution came from hotel rooms. This month lodging away from home rose 2.0%, contributing about 0.03pp, roughly a fifth of the total. The bigger driver is owners' equivalent rent, up 0.3% from 0.2%, which is a quarter of the entire index. Rent of primary residence held at 0.2%. Shelter's twelve-month rate rose to 3.2% from 3.0%, and owners' equivalent rent to 3.3% from 3.1%. The August brief said to watch shelter without the hotels. Without the hotels, shelter accelerated.

Core goods are the third change. The index for commodities less food and energy rose 0.3%, its fastest month since at least March, after 0.1% in August. Used cars rose 0.7%, a third straight gain, though they are still down 1.5% on the year. Apparel rose 0.3%, new vehicles 0.2%, footwear 0.5% and information technology commodities 0.9%. Furniture and bedding fell 0.8% and appliances 0.7%, so this was not across the board. But goods had been a steady drag on core all year, and this month they were not.

Transportation services rose 0.6%, with car and truck rental up 5.4%, motor vehicle maintenance and repair up 0.7%, and airline fares up 1.2%, which are now 22.4% higher than a year ago. Unlike August, the airline number is not a seasonal artifact: unadjusted, fares rose 2.0% this month. Recreation rose 0.5% after being unchanged, and education 0.6%. Communication fell 0.2% after rising 2.3% in August, with wireless service flat after a 5.9% jump.

Step back to the run rates. Core's monthly path since March reads 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3. The single month annualizes to 3.7%, the three-month rate to 3.2%, and the six-month to 2.8%, all above the 2.6% twelve-month rate. A month ago, the three-month rate was 2.0% and the hawkish case rested on one print. It now rests on a trend. The headline is starker: 4.5% annualized over three months, against 0.4% a month ago, because June's −0.4% has dropped out of the window.

Food gave nothing. The food index was unchanged, food at home fell 0.1% and food away from home rose 0.2%. Beef fell 1.0% and milk 2.0%, while carbonated drinks rose 1.5% and coffee 0.9%. Eggs are 20.6% cheaper than a year ago.

The unadjusted index level is 336.940. CPI-W, the wage-earner index used for the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, rose 3.9% over twelve months. The chained index rose 3.5%.

The Internals

The four calendar numbers, which is where this release is decided. Consensus is TradingEconomics:

Measure · September 2026 · Consensus · August 2026 · Result

CPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 0.6% · Up 0.6% · Up 0.4% · In line

CPI y/y, unadjusted · Up 3.7% · Up 3.6% · Up 3.4% · Hot by a tenth

Core CPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 0.3% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3% · Hot, second month running

Core CPI y/y, unadjusted · Up 2.6% · Up 2.5% · Up 2.4% · Hot by a tenth

Contribution to the 0.6% headline. Weights are relative importance as of August 2026, and contributions use the rounded monthly changes:

Component · Weight · Monthly change · Contribution · Share of the month

Energy · 7.418% · Up 5.2% · 0.386 points · 62%

Core, all items less food and energy · 79.075% · Up 0.3% · 0.237 points · 38%

Food · 13.507% · Unchanged · Zero · 0%

Of which: gasoline alone · 3.853% · Up 9.1% · 0.351 points · 56%

Of which: shelter · 35.323% · Up 0.4% · 0.141 points · 23%

Of which: services less energy services · 60.240% · Up 0.4% · 0.241 points · 39%

Of which: commodities less food and energy · 18.835% · Up 0.3% · 0.057 points · 9%

The last two rows sum to 0.298 points against core's 0.237 at the rounded 0.3%, which is the arithmetic behind calling this a high 0.3.

Core is now accelerating on every window:

Window · Core annualized · Headline annualized · A month ago, core

One month · 3.7% · 7.4% · 3.7%

Three months · 3.2% · 4.5% · 2.0%

Six months · 2.8% · 3.7% · 2.6%

Twelve months, reported · 2.6% · 3.7% · 2.4%

The energy block:

Series · Monthly change · 12-month change · Read

Energy, all · Up 5.2% · Up 20.4% · 62% of the month

Energy commodities · Up 9.3% · Up 35.3% · The fuel you buy

Gasoline, all types · Up 9.1% · Up 34.2% · Up 6.5% before seasonal adjustment

Fuel oil · Up 15.3% · Up 74.2% · The diesel pass-through continues

Energy services · Up 0.1% · Up 4.6% · The meter, still calm

Electricity · Up 0.2% · Up 4.4% · Quiet

Utility piped gas · Down 0.3% · Up 5.0% · Fell for a second month

Shelter, which is 35.3% of the index and the component the committee reads for persistence:

Line · Weight · Monthly change · August change · 12-month change

Shelter, total · 35.323% · Up 0.4% · Up 0.3% · Up 3.2%

Owners' equivalent rent · 25.902% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.2% · Up 3.3%

Rent of primary residence · 7.728% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.2% · Up 2.8%

Lodging away from home · 1.405% · Up 2.0% · Up 2.4% · Up 4.4%

Tenants' and household insurance · 0.287% · Up 0.2% · Unchanged · Up 3.0%

The August drags, and what they did this month:

Line · Weight · September · August · 12-month change

Medical care services · 6.834% · Up 0.3% · Down 0.2% · Up 2.5%

Hospital services · 2.160% · Up 0.7% · Unchanged · Up 5.6%

Dental services · 0.913% · Up 0.5% · Down 0.6% · Up 6.0%

Motor vehicle insurance · 2.531% · Up 0.1% · Down 0.8% · Down 5.0%

Health insurance · 0.818% · Down 0.2% · Down 0.5% · Down 9.0%

Prescription drugs · 0.909% · Down 1.2% · Unchanged · Down 4.5%

Where The Inflation Is

What rose in core:

Category · Weight · Monthly change · 12-month change

Shelter · 35.323% · Up 0.4% · Up 3.2%

Transportation services · 6.261% · Up 0.6% · Up 2.7%

Tuition, school fees and childcare · 2.542% · Up 0.6% · Up 3.8%

Used cars and trucks · 2.688% · Up 0.7% · Down 1.5%

New vehicles · 3.748% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.6%

Apparel · 2.445% · Up 0.3% · Up 3.4%

Public transportation · 1.630% · Up 1.2% · Up 15.6%

Airline fares · 1.040% · Up 1.2% adjusted, up 2.0% unadjusted · Up 22.4%

Motor vehicle maintenance and repair · 1.063% · Up 0.7% · Up 5.8%

Car and truck rental · 0.154% · Up 5.4% · Up 9.1%

Information technology commodities · 0.752% · Up 0.9% · Down 2.9%

Personal care · 2.451% · Up 0.3% · Up 3.7%

Tobacco and smoking products · 0.449% · Up 0.7% · Up 6.4%

What fell, a shorter list than August's:

Category · Weight · Monthly change · 12-month change

Medical care commodities · 1.396% · Down 0.7% · Down 3.3%

Prescription drugs · 0.909% · Down 1.2% · Down 4.5%

Health insurance · 0.818% · Down 0.2% · Down 9.0%

Furniture and bedding · 0.845% · Down 0.8% · Down 2.4%

Appliances · 0.199% · Down 0.7% · Down 1.0%

Motor vehicle fees · 0.500% · Down 0.3% · Up 0.5%

Moving, storage and freight expense · 0.075% · Down 2.3% · Down 7.1%

Women's and girls' apparel · 0.969% · Down 0.8% · Up 2.5%

Wireless telephone services · 1.369% · Unchanged · Up 3.2%

The grocery aisle, which took the month off:

Group · Monthly change · 12-month change

Food at home · Down 0.1% · Up 1.8%

Meats, poultry, fish and eggs · Down 0.5% · Up 0.3%

Beef and veal · Down 1.0% · Up 3.5%

Eggs · Down 1.3% · Down 20.6%

Dairy and related products · Down 0.9% · Down 0.7%

Milk · Down 2.0% · Up 2.3%

Fruits and vegetables · Up 0.5% · Up 3.7%

Nonalcoholic beverages · Up 0.9% · Up 3.8%

Coffee · Up 0.9% · Up 7.1%

Food away from home · Up 0.2% · Up 3.5%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open set up two outcomes, and this is the hawkish one. It said "A hot core (0.3% or more) is the outcome that tests the rate path, because Hammack's case for tightening is that inflation is broadening beyond energy." Core printed 0.3%, with medical services, insurance, shelter and core goods all firmer — The Open.
• It also framed the benign alternative as "A hot headline with core at 0.2%," the oil shock showing up as expected. The headline part landed exactly, at 0.6%, but core did not stay at 0.2%.
• Its gold test is now live. The Open said "If CPI comes in hot and gold rallies anyway, the selling had nothing to do with rates." CPI came in hot. How gold trades through the session answers the question it posed.
• The Beige Book at 14:00 is the second test The Open named, on whether the energy shock is reaching wages and prices. This print says the prices part already has.

What This Sets Up

• Next CPI: Tuesday, 10 November, 8:30am ET, covering October (BLS). It lands after the 27-28 October FOMC, so this is the inflation print the committee takes into the meeting.
• The read to confirm or break is whether core has turned. Three-month core is 3.2% and six-month 2.8%, both above the 2.6% twelve-month rate. A third 0.3% makes the acceleration the base case. A 0.1% or 0.2% pulls the three-month rate back toward 2.6%.
• Watch owners' equivalent rent. It moved from 0.2% to 0.3% this month, and on a quarter of the index it does far more to core than lodging can. A second 0.3% would mean shelter is re-accelerating, not just bouncing.
• Watch core goods. At 0.3% they stopped being the drag they have been all year. If used cars and apparel hold their gains, the disinflation core has been leaning on is gone.
• Energy is already in the October basket. WTI is up again this morning on Hormuz shipping strikes, so the headline is set to stay heavy whatever core does.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am ET. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas from about 6,000 housing units and 22,000 retail establishments, then aggregated using expenditure weights. The headline CPI-U covers over 90% of the US population. BLS also publishes CPI-W, a wage-earner subset that sets the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, and the chained C-CPI-U, which allows for substitution between goods and is issued in preliminary form.
• Why it matters: It is the inflation number with the most direct line to a rate decision. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% in September, the minutes showed most officials expecting another hike by year end, and this is the last CPI before the 27-28 October meeting.
• How to read it: Read core first and the headline second, because energy swings dominate the top line and reverse, which is why the committee looks through them. Then read core across more than one window: a single month annualizes to something dramatic, so the signal is when the three- and six-month rates move above the twelve-month rate, as they did this month. Check the weights before crediting any component: a 9.1% move in gasoline matters because gasoline is 3.85% of the basket, and a 0.1-point move in owners' equivalent rent matters because it is 25.9%. Check whether a figure is seasonally adjusted, because the two can differ sharply: gasoline rose 9.1% adjusted and 6.5% unadjusted this month. BLS puts the standard error on the one-month headline change at 0.04 points, so a 0.6% print is clearly distinct from 0.5%, but not from 0.55%.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._