Calendar › PPI › 2026-10-15

PPI +1.3% (vs 0.5% Est) — Biggest Jump Since March 2022, Core Up 0.7%

Fundamentals · 2026-10-15

PPI +1.3% m/m against 0.5%, the largest rise since March 2022; +6.3% y/y against 5.3%, the highest since December 2022; core (less foods and energy) +0.7% against 0.3%, and 5.0% y/y against 4.4%; final demand goods +2.6%, the largest since the series began in December 2009, on energy +10.8% and gasoline +20.3%; trade margins +1.4%, nearly half of the services rise; transportation and warehousing +3.4%, 16.0% y/y; the core BLS leads with, less foods, energy and trade, +0.5%; August revised up to +0.5% from 0.4%, its annual rate to 5.6% from 5.4%; upstream, stage 2 intermediate demand +3.9% and unprocessed goods +8.4%, both the largest since February 2022.

What It Changes

• The headline was expected to be hot and was hotter still. At 1.3% against 0.5% consensus (TradingEconomics) it is the largest monthly rise since March 2022, and the annual rate jumped a full point to 6.3%.
• The core is the bigger miss, and it removes the "it's only energy" defence. Less foods and energy rose 0.7% against 0.3%, after 0.2% in August. About 0.28 percentage points of that came from trade margins, but strip margins out as well and core still rose 0.5%, up from 0.3%.
• It lands a day after core CPI printed 0.3% for a second month, with the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed) and the 27-28 October FOMC two weeks away. Two inflation reports in two days have now missed to the hot side on the core.
• The pipeline is accelerating, not easing. Stage 1 intermediate demand is up 13.5% on the year and stage 2 13.9%, against final demand's 6.3%, and both widened from August.

Impact

• USD — Bullish — a core miss of this size, on top of yesterday's core CPI miss, strengthens the case for another hike at a live meeting.
• First read, 08:29 to 08:32 ET: DXY +0.08%. That is small, and it is the reaction to the whole 08:30 cluster (retail sales, claims, Empire State and Philly Fed printed at the same time), not to PPI alone.
• The overnight dollar fall was a rates move: DXY −0.51% with the 2-year about 6bp lower, as The Open reported. A core print this hot pushes against exactly that move.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Bearish — the read is strongest for NQ, which went into the print already under pressure from the AI and credit selloff.
• First read: ES −0.14%, NQ −0.15%, with NQ down as much as 0.41% inside the first minute before recovering part of it.
• Higher-for-longer weighs most on long-duration growth and small caps. NQ now has a rates leg added to the credit leg The Open described.
• Gold (GC) — Mixed, lean bearish — the rates leg says lower: a hot core lifts real yields and supports the dollar.
• First read: GC −0.30%. Gold rallied 1.71% overnight as a rates instrument, so the print points against that move. The haven bid from the Asia selloff is the offset.
• Crude (CL) — no directional read from this release — causation runs the other way. Crude petroleum rose 28.3% in the PPI and energy materials 22.2%, which is September's oil price showing up, not a signal for October.

Inside The Number

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% in September, seasonally adjusted, after 0.5% in August (revised up from 0.4%) and 0.2% in July. BLS called it the largest advance since March 2022, when final demand rose 1.7%. Over twelve months, unadjusted, final demand rose 6.3%, against a 5.3% consensus and 5.6% in August (revised up from 5.4%). That is the highest annual rate since December 2022.

The goods side set a record. Final demand goods rose 2.6%, the largest increase since the series was first calculated in December 2009. BLS attributes over 80% of it to final demand energy, up 10.8%, and half of it to gasoline alone, up 20.3%. Diesel, jet fuel, residential electric power and crude petroleum also rose. Energy is now up 35.4% over twelve months, energy for export 64.5%, and government purchased energy 53.7%. Foods rose 1.2% on fresh and dry vegetables, despite eggs falling 39.7%. Goods less foods and energy, the underlying goods measure, rose a modest 0.3%.

The surprise is on the services side. Final demand services rose 0.8%, the largest since April, and nearly half of that came from trade margins, up 1.4%. Trade services in the PPI measure what wholesalers and retailers keep between buying and selling, and they moved in opposite directions this month. Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling rose 3.9% and account for over 20% of the services rise on their own. Margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3%: gas stations absorbed part of a 20% wholesale gasoline jump rather than pass it all on. That is the usual pattern when fuel spikes, and it usually reverses when fuel prices settle.

This is the hidden story under the headline: the core miss is mostly margins, but not only margins. Core less foods and energy rose 0.7%, and on December weights trade contributed about 0.28 points of it. The core BLS leads with, less foods, energy and trade services, rose 0.5% after 0.3% in August, with a twelve-month rate of 5.0%, up from 4.8%. Transportation and warehousing rose 3.4%, with passenger transportation up 5.0% and the sector up 16.0% on the year. Truck freight and airline passenger services both rose. The largest block in the index, services less trade, transportation and warehousing (43.7% of the index), rose 0.3% after August's flat reading, with a twelve-month rate of 3.8%.

The weights understate energy, and that matters for the arithmetic. On the December 2025 relative importance weights, energy contributes about 0.55 points of the 1.3% headline. But energy prices are up a third since then, so its effective weight is larger, which is why BLS's own attribution (over 80% of a 2.6% goods rise) is higher than the December-weight arithmetic (about 73%). Either way, energy is the largest single contributor, and margins and freight are the next two.

Upstream, the pressure is building, not fading. Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 8.4%, the most since February 2022, led by crude petroleum +28.3% and energy materials +22.2%. Their twelve-month rate is 21.5%, the highest since September 2022. Processed goods rose 2.5%, with diesel fuel up 21.0% accounting for nearly half the rise, and are up 14.1% on the year, the highest since August 2022. Services for intermediate demand rose 0.9% and 6.3% on the year, the highest since January 2023.

The stage structure is the reason to read PPI, and every stage accelerated. Stage 2, which covers refiners, utilities and ranching, rose 3.9%, the largest since February 2022, on goods inputs up 8.9%. Stage 1 rose 2.2%, stage 3 1.1% and stage 4, the inputs to final-demand producers, 1.1%. Over twelve months: stage 1 13.5%, stage 2 13.9%, stage 3 7.7%, stage 4 7.9%, against final demand's 6.3% and core's 5.0%. A month ago this feed noted that pressure was about twice as intense at the far end of the chain as at final demand, and asked whether producers were absorbing costs or whether the upstream heat would reverse before it reached anyone. In September the margin data says some downstream sellers are no longer absorbing it: wholesalers widened their margins and stage 4 inputs rose 1.1%. Fuel retailers are the exception, and their squeeze is the classic short-term one.

For the Fed, this is the second hot core in two days. Core CPI printed 0.3% yesterday against 0.2% expected. Core PPI printed 0.7% against 0.3%. The annual rates of both were above consensus. The PPI lines that feed the Fed's preferred PCE measure were mixed: airline passenger services rose, while securities brokerage, dealing and investment advice fell. But the committee meets on 27-28 October with two inflation reports pointing the same way, and the doves no longer have a soft core to point to in either.

The Internals

The four calendar numbers. Consensus is TradingEconomics:

Measure · September 2026 · Consensus · August 2026 · Result

PPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 1.3% · Up 0.5% · Up 0.5%, revised from 0.4% · Hot by 0.8 points

PPI y/y, unadjusted · Up 6.3% · Up 5.3% · Up 5.6%, revised from 5.4% · Hot by a full point

Core PPI m/m (less foods and energy) · Up 0.7% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.2% · Hot by 0.4 points

Core PPI y/y (less foods and energy) · Up 5.0% · Up 4.4% · Up 4.6%, as first published · Hot by 0.6 points

Contributions to the 1.3% headline. Weights are relative importance as of December 2025; contributions use the rounded monthly changes and are approximate:

Component · Weight · Monthly change · Contribution · Share of the month

Final demand goods · 29.028% · Up 2.6% · About 0.75 points · 58%

Of which: energy · 5.061% · Up 10.8% · About 0.55 points · 42%

Of which: foods · 5.452% · Up 1.2% · About 0.07 points · 5%

Of which: goods less foods and energy · 18.515% · Up 0.3% · About 0.06 points · 4%

Final demand services · 68.338% · Up 0.8% · About 0.55 points · 42%

Of which: trade services · 19.755% · Up 1.4% · About 0.28 points · 21%

Of which: transportation and warehousing · 4.857% · Up 3.4% · About 0.17 points · 13%

Of which: services less trade, transportation and warehousing · 43.725% · Up 0.3% · About 0.13 points · 10%

Final demand construction · 2.634% · Unchanged · Zero · 0%

The final demand detail:

Index · September · August · 12-month change

Final demand · Up 1.3% · Up 0.5% · Up 6.3%

Final demand goods · Up 2.6% · Up 1.1% · Up 9.8%

Foods · Up 1.2% · Down 0.3% · Unchanged

Energy · Up 10.8% · Up 4.5% · Up 35.4%

Goods less foods and energy · Up 0.3% · Up 0.4% · Up 5.1%

Private capital equipment · Up 0.3% · Up 0.3% · Up 4.0%

Goods for export · Up 1.9% · Up 1.1% · Up 10.3%

Government purchased goods · Up 3.8% · Up 2.9% · Up 16.8%

Final demand services · Up 0.8% · Up 0.2% · Up 4.9%

Trade services · Up 1.4% · Up 0.2% · Up 4.7%

Transportation and warehousing · Up 3.4% · Up 2.2% · Up 16.0%

Transportation of passengers · Up 5.0% · Up 2.6% · Up 16.5%

Services less trade, transportation and warehousing · Up 0.3% · Unchanged · Up 3.8%

Final demand construction · Unchanged · Unchanged · Up 5.4%

Less foods and energy · Up 0.7% · Up 0.2% · Up 5.0%

Less foods, energy and trade services · Up 0.5% · Up 0.3% · Up 5.0%

Less energy · Up 0.7% · Up 0.2% · Up 4.7%

The monthly path, as revised in this release:

Month · Final demand · Less foods and energy · Less foods, energy and trade

May 2026 · Up 0.5% · Unchanged · Up 0.8%

June 2026 · Down 0.1% · Up 0.4% · Up 0.2%

July 2026 · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.5%

August 2026 · Up 0.5% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3%

September 2026 · Up 1.3% · Up 0.7% · Up 0.5%

Intermediate demand by commodity type:

Index · September · August · 12-month change

Processed goods · Up 2.5% · Up 1.8% · Up 14.1%

Processed foods and feeds · Up 0.4% · Down 0.5% · n/a

Processed energy goods · Up 10.2% · Up 7.3% · n/a

Processed materials less foods and energy · Up 0.5% · Up 0.6% · n/a

Unprocessed goods · Up 8.4% · Up 0.9% · Up 21.5%

Unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs · Up 0.8% · Up 0.7% · n/a

Unprocessed energy materials · Up 22.2% · Up 0.2% · n/a

Unprocessed nonfood materials less energy · Up 2.5% · Up 1.9% · n/a

Services for intermediate demand · Up 0.9% · Up 0.7% · Up 6.3%

Trade services · Up 2.0% · Up 2.7% · n/a

Transportation and warehousing · Up 1.8% · Up 1.2% · n/a

Services less trade, transportation and warehousing · Up 0.3% · Unchanged · n/a

Intermediate demand by production flow, where stage 1 is furthest from the consumer:

Stage · September · August · Goods inputs, September · Services inputs, September · 12-month change

Stage 1 · Up 2.2% · Up 1.7% · Up 3.1% · Up 1.1% · Up 13.5%

Stage 2 · Up 3.9% · Up 0.9% · Up 8.9% · Up 0.5% · Up 13.9%

Stage 3 · Up 1.1% · Up 1.0% · Up 1.3% · Up 0.8% · Up 7.7%

Stage 4 · Up 1.1% · Up 0.6% · Up 1.2% · Up 0.9% · Up 7.9%

Revisions to August, all in the same direction:

Measure · First published · Revised

Final demand m/m · Up 0.4% · Up 0.5%

Final demand y/y · Up 5.4% · Up 5.6%

Final demand energy · Up 4.2% · Up 4.5%

Final demand services · Up 0.1% · Up 0.2%

Less foods and energy m/m · Up 0.2% · Up 0.2%

Where The Price Pressure Is

BLS names the products behind each move. What rose:

Product · Index · Move · Note

Gasoline · Final demand goods · Up 20.3% · Half of the goods increase

Machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins · Final demand services · Up 3.9% · Over 20% of the services increase

Diesel fuel · Processed goods, intermediate · Up 21.0% · Nearly half of the processed goods rise

Crude petroleum · Unprocessed goods, intermediate · Up 28.3% · Led unprocessed goods

Food and alcohol wholesaling margins · Services, intermediate · Up 6.7% · Nearly a quarter of the intermediate services rise

Truck transportation of freight · Final and intermediate services · Rose · Named in both, and in stages 1, 3 and 4

Airline passenger services · Final and intermediate services · Rose · A PCE input

Traveler accommodation services · Final and intermediate services · Rose · n/a

Grains, hay and oilseeds · Unprocessed goods, intermediate · Rose · Also lifted stages 1 to 4

Fabricated structural metal products · Processed goods, intermediate · Rose · n/a

What fell:

Product · Index · Move · Note

Automotive fuels and lubricants retailing margins · Final demand services · Down 30.3% · Fuel retailers absorbing the gasoline jump

Chicken eggs · Final demand goods · Down 39.7% · Largest named goods decline

Raw milk · Unprocessed goods, intermediate · Down 12.3% · n/a

Securities brokerage, dealing and investment advice · Services, intermediate · Down 2.9% · Also fell in final demand

Commercial electric power · Processed goods, intermediate · Down 0.6% · Also fell in final demand

Thermoplastic resins and materials · Final and intermediate goods · Fell · n/a

Chemicals and allied products wholesaling · Final and intermediate services · Fell · n/a

Two lines tell the margin story between them. Machinery and vehicle wholesalers widened margins by 3.9%, and gas stations saw theirs cut by 30.3%. Margins are the most volatile part of PPI services and they often reverse, which is why BLS publishes a core that excludes trade. That core still rose 0.5%.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open set a 0.4% line on core, and core cleared it. It said core PPI "at 0.3% expected would follow two straight 0.3% core CPI prints. A 0.4% or higher would undo the overnight bond rally quickly." Core printed 0.7% — The Open.
• The first three minutes went in the direction The Open described, but not far. It said hot PPI with strong retail sales "would push yields back up, and with them the dollar, and against gold." By 08:32 ET the dollar was up 0.08% and gold down 0.30%, a small fraction of the overnight moves. Retail sales gets its own brief.
• The overnight haven trade has not been undone yet. The Open framed the 08:30 cluster as deciding between the rate-hike trade and the haven trade. PPI is evidence for the first; the cash session decides how much weight the market gives it.

What This Sets Up

• Next PPI: Friday, 13 November, 8:30am ET, covering October (BLS). It lands after the 27-28 October FOMC, so September's report is the producer-price read the committee takes into the meeting.
• The read to confirm or break is whether core less foods, energy and trade stays at 0.5%. That measure strips out margins, which are the most likely part of this month to reverse. A second 0.5% would make the services acceleration a trend. A return to 0.3% would mean September was mostly margins and freight.
• Watch trade margins. The 30.3% squeeze on fuel retailers usually unwinds once pump prices settle, and that would push PPI services up again even if wholesale fuel prices flatten.
• Watch stage 2. It rose 3.9% on goods inputs up 8.9%. If it falls back the way it did in June (−1.8%), September was an oil spike. If it holds, the pressure is moving down the chain.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Producer Price Index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am ET, measures price change from the seller's side: what domestic producers receive for goods, services and construction. More than 44,000 price quotations a month feed over 10,000 indexes. The headline is final demand, which covers what is sold to consumers, businesses for investment, government and export. Goods are about 29% of final demand, services about 68% and construction about 3%. Intermediate demand covers what businesses buy as inputs, organized by commodity type and by four stages of production.
• Why it matters: It arrived the day after a hot core CPI and two weeks before the 27-28 October FOMC, with the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% and officials debating another hike. Several PPI components, including airfares, hospital care and portfolio management, feed directly into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure, so PPI is a partial preview of that number.
• How to read it: Read the core before the headline, because energy swings dominate the top line and reverse. Then read the core without trade services: PPI services include wholesale and retail margins, which can swing sharply, as the 30.3% fall in fuel-retailing margins did this month. Then read the stages: stage 1 is furthest from the consumer and stage 4 closest, so a gap between them shows where pressure is building and whether it is moving forward. Note the scope: PPI excludes imports and owners' equivalent rent, the heaviest item in the CPI, so it does not forecast the CPI directly.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._