Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-13

Goldman lifts YM. Memory chips sink NQ

Rundown · 2026-10-13

The index split is the story this morning, and it runs the opposite way to Monday's. YM is 52,476, +366 (+0.70%). NQ is 30,674.50, -223.75 (-0.72%). ES sits between them at 7,850.50, -7.50 (-0.10%). Two things drive it, and both have a ticker. Goldman Sachs earned $17.01 a share on $18.68B of revenue and is +2.80% pre-market. On the Dow's price weighting that is worth roughly +148 points by itself. On the other side, Chinese memory maker CXMT reported progress on a new memory-cell design. Korea's KOSPI closed down 5.5%, and Micron is -3.87% pre-market after losing 3.88% on Monday. Oil is giving back Monday's Saudi-attack gain: Brent $104.88, -$1.77 from a $106.65 settle, the highest since 15 September. The dollar is off its 18-month high (DXY 102.29, -0.29%) and the cash 10-year has reopened after the holiday 4bp lower at 5.197%. Nothing prints at 08:30. September CPI is tomorrow at 08:30. Levels in this brief are as of 07:42-07:53 ET.

Overnight

• Against Monday's settles, 07:42 ET (MarketWatch, delayed). ES (Dec) 7,850.50, -7.50 (-0.10%) from 7,858.00 · NQ 30,674.50, -223.75 (-0.72%) from 30,898.25 · YM 52,476, +366 (+0.70%) from 52,110 · RTY 2,820.3, +8.1 (+0.29%) from 2,812.2
• Reference levels, not a forecast. Globex ranges since 18:00 ET: ES 7,836.00-7,864.00 · NQ 30,604.75-30,906.00 · YM 52,095-52,563 · RTY 2,806.3-2,826.0. NQ has spent the night below Monday's settle: its overnight high is 7.75 points above it. YM's overnight low is 15 points below its settle. The ES contract high is still 7,897.50
• Overnight volume is thin. ES has traded 193K contracts against a 65-day average of 1.33M. YM is the exception at 53% of its average, which fits a session where the Dow has the news
• Asia was hit by the memory story. KOSPI -5.5%, after falling more than 7% intraday (Reuters). Samsung and SK Hynix were each down about 8%, a fifth losing session (Yahoo Finance). Nikkei 67,777.52, -1,253.40 (-1.82%), reopening after Monday's holiday. Hang Seng 24,345.22, +0.30%, Shanghai Composite 3,800.86, +0.10%, ASX 200 flat
• Europe is modestly higher and ignoring the chip story. FTSE 100 10,725.43, +0.65% · STOXX 600 638.03, +0.37% · DAX 25,333.99, +0.22% · CAC 40 7,844.48, +0.15% (mid-session, MarketWatch). German final September CPI was confirmed at 3.3% y/y (TradingEconomics)
• Fed's Waller spoke at 03:45 ET. Reuters reports that he put the rise in Treasury yields down to stronger growth and heavy AI investment rather than higher inflation expectations. The rate market reads that as less of a reason to hike

The Dollar & FX

• DXY 102.29, -0.30 (-0.29%) from Monday's 102.59 (ICE via MarketWatch, 07:35 ET), range 102.25-102.57. Monday's close was an 18-month high, and the 52-week high is 102.61. The overnight move is a rates move: the cash Treasury market was closed Monday for Columbus Day. It reopened with the 10-year at 5.197%, -4.0bp from Friday's 5.237%, and the 2-year at 4.785%, -1.2bp (Tullett Prebon via MarketWatch, 07:52 ET). 2s10s is about 41bp.
• 6E is carrying the dollar move. EUR/USD 1.1189, +0.0032 (+0.29%) from 1.1157, range 1.1154-1.1199. Monday's close was within four pips of the 52-week low of 1.1153. The bounce is coming from that level. ECB's Lane speaks at 13:30 ET, and Lagarde speaks at 22:10 ET tonight
• 6J. USD/JPY 158.13, -0.50 (-0.32%) from 158.63, range 157.83-158.71. The yen is the strongest major this morning, on lower US yields and a risk-off session in Tokyo and Seoul. The 52-week high is 164.00
• 6C is off a fresh 52-week high. USD/CAD 1.4248, -0.0036 (-0.25%) from 1.4284. The overnight high of 1.4303 is the 52-week high, made early in the session before the dollar turned. Canada was closed Monday for Thanksgiving. Oil is down 1.6% this morning, which normally weighs on CAD, and CAD is still up
• 6B. GBP/USD 1.3244, +0.0035 (+0.26%) from 1.3209, range 1.3204-1.3248, at the top of its range. BoE's Dhingra speaks at 12:00 ET
• 6A. AUD/USD 0.6977, +0.0017 (+0.24%) from 0.6960, range 0.6949-0.6980. China's September CPI (21:30 ET) and trade data (23:00 ET) land tonight, outside this session
• Rate odds. Reuters this morning says traders "widely expect" the Fed to hold on 27-28 October. The desk could not pull a current FedWatch, Kalshi or Polymarket reading. The last snapshot found, from 7 October, put an October hike near 17% and December near 73% (DeFi Rate's Kalshi/Polymarket aggregate). Treat those figures as stale

Energy & Metals

• CL: November settled $93.74, +$1.89 (+2.06%) on Monday. Friday's settle was $91.85, which reconciles with Thursday's published $91.49 (+$0.36). It is $92.20, -$1.54 (-1.64%) now, range $91.70-$93.49 (07:42 ET)
• Brent: December settled $106.65, +$1.93 (+1.84%), the highest settle since 15 September. It is $104.88, -$1.77 (-1.66%) now, range $104.35-$106.14. The Brent-WTI spread is about $12.68, from $12.91 at the settle
• What lifted oil Monday was the weekend's attacks on Saudi Arabia. Houthi forces struck Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday. Reports put the dead at 12-13 and the injured at more than 300, and the airport was hit again on Sunday. Another tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia says its energy exports are stable, and JPMorgan puts Persian Gulf exports at 17.5M bpd, about 98% of pre-war levels (via Reuters coverage)
• What is taking it back this morning is diesel. The White House has temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel so that Russia can supply diesel to global markets. Analysts doubt the near-term volumes, because Russia's refining capacity has been badly damaged. A bipartisan group of senators asked on Sunday for the deal to be cancelled. Zelenskyy says Russia has already broken the energy ceasefire it is tied to. That makes the morning's -1.6% a bet on a deal still in dispute, not on any barrels that have arrived
• Isaias made landfall early Saturday. About 1.2M bpd of Gulf of Mexico output was still shut in on Sunday, per the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Shell, Chevron and BP are redeploying crews. No update on restarts was found this morning, so treat that as the last known figure
• The inventory data moves this week. Because of Monday's holiday, API moves to Wednesday 16:30 ET and EIA crude to Thursday 12:00 ET (TradingEconomics)
• GC: December settled $4,190.60, -$25.70 (-0.61%) on Monday. Friday's settle was $4,216.30, up $59.30 from Thursday's $4,157.00. It is $4,210.00, +$19.40 (+0.46%) now, range $4,173.70-$4,224.80
• Gold is following rates and the dollar this time. Monday's drop came with the dollar at an 18-month high and oil higher. This morning the 10-year is down 4bp, the dollar is down 0.3% and gold is up 0.5%. That is the textbook relationship, and it did not hold on Friday morning, when gold rose 1% with yields up. CPI tomorrow tests it again

Where We Left Off

• Monday's RTH close, per AP: S&P 500 7,807.24 (-4.30, -0.1%) · Dow 51,850.55 (+195.60, +0.4%) · Nasdaq Composite 27,245.90 (-120.27, -0.4%) · Russell 2000 2,794.48 (-12.50, -0.4%). MarketWatch matches all four, and all four reconcile with Friday's AP closes. Investrade printed the Dow change as +195.36 with a malformed close, so AP and MarketWatch win. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.71% to 30,664.70. VIX 15.42, +0.21
• Friday, for the record: S&P +46.18 (+0.6%), Dow +423.31 (+0.8%), Nasdaq +172.83 (+0.6%), Russell +12.85 (+0.5%) (AP). Friday's chip bounce held through the close. Monday's did not
• Monday's split. Nine of 11 S&P sectors rose. Energy led, +1.43%, on oil, with communications next at +0.97%. Tech lagged as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 2.7% on the CXMT reports (Investrade). Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital and Seagate led the memory names lower. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also called AI investing "a casino," per Bloomberg
• What carries over: Cleveland Fed President Hammack said on Monday that the Fed should move "relatively quickly" toward a restrictive stance as inflation broadens. Waller's softer framing this morning is the other side of that argument, and CPI tomorrow is the next data point in it

Friday's Data

• UMich sentiment 46.3, current conditions a record low, year-ahead inflation expectations up to 4.7%

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

03:45 · Fed's Waller speaks (done) · n/a · n/a · USD

06:00 · NFIB optimism, Sep (printed 97.9) · 98 · 98.7 · USD

08:15 · ADP weekly employment pulse · n/a · +23.75K · USD · ES

10:00 · Existing home sales, Sep · 3.95M · 3.98M · USD · ES

11:30 · 3- and 6-month bill auctions · n/a · 4.050% / 4.165% · USD

12:00 · BoE's Dhingra speaks · n/a · n/a · 6B

13:00 · Fed's Barkin speaks · n/a · n/a · USD

13:30 · ECB's Lane speaks · n/a · n/a · 6E

14:00 · Monthly budget statement, Sep · -$29B · -$167B · USD · rates

16:00 · Fed's Collins speaks · n/a · n/a · USD

Consensus: TradingEconomics.

There is no 08:30 release today, and the desk checked that on two sources. The empty slot was confirmed against TradingEconomics' calendar and Yahoo Finance's morning preview. Both list only NFIB, the ADP weekly pulse and existing home sales as US data. Monday's federal holiday has shifted this week's schedule: Redbook moves to Wednesday, API to Wednesday 16:30, and EIA crude to Thursday 12:00. Tuesday's usual API slot is empty. Earnings out before the open: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth. Domino's and Albertsons also report. The OPEC monthly report is due today, but no time is published.

The fulcrum is not on today's calendar. It is tomorrow at 08:30. September CPI consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y headline, after 0.4% and 3.4%, and +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y core, after 0.3% and 2.4% (TradingEconomics). Thursday stacks PPI, retail sales, claims, Empire and Philly at 08:30. Existing home sales at 10:00 is the only US print today likely to move anything, and probably not by much. Today's US session runs on bank earnings and the chip tape. The Fed speakers matter only if one of them answers the Hammack-Waller question about why yields have risen.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. The Dow is price-weighted, so $1 in any constituent is worth about 5.9 Dow points (approximate). Pre-market quotes and Monday closes are MarketWatch, 07:53 ET.

• GS $919.00, +$25.05 (+2.80%) pre-market, worth about +148 Dow points by itself. Q3 diluted EPS was $17.01, against a pre-release consensus near $15.62 (Benzinga). Net revenue was $18.68B, +23% y/y, and ROE 18.7%. Equities revenue was $6.44B and FICC $3.47B (company release, SEC 8-K). Goldman is one of the Dow's highest-priced members, and it accounts for about 40% of YM's overnight gain
• MU $950.80, -3.87% pre-market, after -3.88% Monday to $989.04. At $1.12T Micron is now a large Nasdaq-100 weight. The cause is CXMT: the Chinese memory maker reported progress on a new memory-cell design and plans a server-memory product by the end of 2026. That would be direct competition for Samsung and SK Hynix, and their losses in Seoul are where this started. Western Digital, Seagate and Sandisk are down 3.2-4.8% pre-market (Reuters)
• NVDA $224.55, -0.78% pre-market, after -1.29% Monday to $226.32. It is the largest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight at $5.45T, so a small move here still costs NQ more than most of the list. About -10 Dow points. AMD is -1.5% and Marvell -2.6% pre-market (Reuters)
• UNH $386.83, +$8.31 (+2.19%) pre-market, worth about +49 Dow points. It raised its 2026 profit forecast, citing tighter control of medical costs (Reuters)
• JNJ $258.80, -$4.93 (-1.87%) pre-market, about -29 Dow points. Q3 profit came in slightly above expectations, and the shares are lower anyway (Reuters)
• JPM $336.25, +0.58% pre-market, recovering from about -3.4% in early trade. EPS was $5.57 against a $5.90 consensus, a rare miss for the largest US bank. It was $5.75 excluding $658M of securities losses. Revenue rose 8% to $50.2B (Yahoo Finance). About +12 Dow points. WFC is -0.98% and C +0.66%
• Together, GS, UNH, JNJ and JPM account for about +180 of YM's +366. The rest is broad Dow buying with no single cause the desk can name

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Friday's calls. We asked whether the chip bounce would hold through the cash open. It did on Friday, with the Nasdaq up 0.6%, and then gave way on Monday to a different cause, CXMT, not OpenAI. We asked whether Brent would hold above $102.33 as Isaias came ashore. It did: it settled $104.72 Friday and $106.65 Monday. We asked whether gold would hold $4,200 with yields rising. Friday yes ($4,216.30), Monday no ($4,190.60). We asked whether USD/JPY would hold 158. It did, closing Monday at 158.63. It is 158.13 now
• Whether the NQ/YM split survives the cash open. NQ's overnight range is 30,604.75-30,906.00, with Monday's settle at the top of it. YM's is 52,095-52,563, with Monday's settle at the bottom. A split this wide, driven by one earnings beat and one overseas chip story, is often given back once cash trades
• Whether the memory selloff spreads from Micron to the AI leaders. So far NVDA is down less than 1% while MU is down nearly 4%. If NVDA and AVGO start moving like MU, the problem is the whole AI trade rather than the memory names
• Whether the 10-year holds below 5.237%, Friday's close, through the session. Lower yields are what is supporting EUR/USD off its low and gold off Monday's close
• Whether Brent holds above $104.35, the overnight low, while the Russian diesel deal is still contested

The Bottom Line

The cash market reopens with the indices split by sector. Goldman's beat and the defensive bid are lifting the Dow. A memory-chip scare that started in Seoul is weighing on the Nasdaq-100, and the S&P sits flat between them. There is nothing at 08:30 to settle it, so the open will be decided by how the bank earnings and the chip tape trade once cash opens. The bigger test is tomorrow's CPI, now that one Fed speaker is calling for faster tightening and another is explaining the rise in yields away.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._