Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-14

Oil jumps 2% into CPI. Gold slips anyway

Rundown · 2026-10-14

September CPI prints at 08:30, and everything before it is positioning. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, after 0.4% and 3.4%, and +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y for core, after 0.3% and 2.4% (TradingEconomics). The morning's market moves are in commodities, not stocks. WTI is +1.9% overnight after a container ship and a tanker were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz (UKMTO, via wire reports), and it sits near the top of a 2.1% range. Gold is −0.4%, near its overnight low, with the 10-year yield 2bp lower and the dollar flat. That is the opposite of the usual relationship. Index futures are quiet: ES +0.15%, NQ −0.16%, YM +0.31%. Bank of America is −4.5% pre-market after a $1.2B regulatory charge cut its EPS to $0.91. This run started late, at 07:38 ET. Quotes are as of 07:42-07:54 ET. MBA mortgage data has printed. Nothing else on the US calendar has.

Overnight

Against Tuesday's settles, 07:42 ET. ES +0.15% · NQ −0.16% · YM +0.31% · RTY +0.15%. The YM-over-NQ order is the same as Tuesday morning's, but the gap is much narrower: then YM led NQ by 1.4 points of %, and now it leads by 0.5.
Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. ES has traded an overnight range of 0.32%. Its low is 0.09% below Tuesday's settle and its high 0.24% above. It sits in the upper third of that range. NQ's range is wider at 0.61%, and it sits in the bottom fifth, 0.16% below the settle. CPI lands inside both ranges. Overnight volume is light: ES has traded about 11% of its average daily volume.
Asia was soft, and the memory-chip selloff faded there. Shanghai −0.88%, ASX 200 −0.64%, Hang Seng −0.13%, Nikkei −0.05%. Tuesday's 5-6% drop in Seoul on the CXMT memory news did not carry into Tokyo this session.
Europe is broadly higher. STOXX 600 +0.64%, DAX +0.59%, CAC 40 +0.58%, FTSE 100 +0.45%. It is trading as if it expects a contained CPI print.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman spoke at 05:40 ET in Bangkok, on supervision and regulation (Fed calendar). The topic was bank rules, not the rate path, and no policy comment from it could be found. She speaks again at 22:55 ET tonight.

The Dollar & FX

DXY +0.04% overnight, after −0.40% on Tuesday. Tuesday's fall took the index off Monday's 18-month high. The dollar is flat into CPI, and a flat dollar the morning before a print is common.
6E: EUR/USD is flat overnight (−0.01%) after +0.38% Tuesday, the biggest part of the dollar's fall. Monday's close was within a few pips of its 52-week low. Tuesday's bounce moved it off that level, but it is still within 0.4% of it.
6A is the mover this morning. AUD/USD +0.37%, the strongest major overnight, after +0.32% Tuesday. China's September CPI and trade data were due overnight, but the desk could not verify the actual figures and will not name them as the driver.
6B: GBP/USD +0.09% overnight, +0.34% Tuesday.
6J: USD/JPY +0.08% overnight, −0.20% Tuesday. The yen has not added to Tuesday's haven bid.
6C: USD/CAD +0.03% overnight after −0.48% Tuesday, the second-largest move among the majors. CAD has held flat while WTI is up 1.9% overnight. That is the break worth noting: CAD would normally follow oil.
Rate odds: no current FedWatch, Kalshi or Polymarket reading could be pulled this morning. The FOMC meets on 27-28 October. Today's CPI is the last inflation print before it.

Energy & Metals

CL: +0.43% on Tuesday (settle to settle), +1.88% overnight, near the top of a 2.1% overnight range. Brent: −0.90% Tuesday, +0.56% overnight. WTI is outrunning Brent by more than a percentage point this morning, which narrows the Brent-WTI spread from Monday's wide level.
The catalyst is the Strait of Hormuz again. UKMTO reported a container ship and an oil tanker hit by unknown projectiles early Wednesday (around 03:45 GMT, via wire reports). This follows the weekend's Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and Rigzone's 13 October wire reported that Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping have surged. Against that, the US waiver on Russian diesel is a cap on prices, but a disputed one. On Tuesday, oil ignored the waiver at the close: WTI rose 0.4% while Brent gave back 0.9%.
Inventory timing this week has shifted with Monday's holiday: API is at 16:30 today and EIA crude moves to Thursday 12:00 (TradingEconomics).
GC: −0.32% on Tuesday, −0.38% overnight, near the low of a 0.85% overnight range.
The mechanism is the puzzle, and the reason this matters before CPI. The 10-year yield fell 3bp on Tuesday and is 2bp lower overnight. The dollar fell 0.4% Tuesday and is flat this morning. Both should support gold, and gold has fallen through both sessions. Either gold is pricing a hot CPI that yields have not, or it is being sold for reasons other than rates. The 08:30 print shows which. If CPI comes in hot and gold rallies anyway, the selling had nothing to do with rates.

Where We Left Off

Tuesday's RTH: S&P 500 −0.02%, Dow −0.35%, Nasdaq Composite −0.15%, Russell 2000 −0.40% (AP). MarketWatch matches all four, and all four reconcile with Monday's closes. Investrade printed the S&P change slightly differently, so AP and MarketWatch win. Nasdaq-100 −0.31%. VIX −0.33%, still near 15.
Treasury yields: 10-year 5.21%, 2-year 4.79% (US Treasury, 13 October). That is −3bp and −1bp from Friday, since Monday was a bond-market holiday. 2s10s is 42bp.
The pre-market index split reversed in the cash session. Tuesday morning, YM was +0.70% and NQ −0.72%, driven by Goldman's earnings beat on one side and the memory-chip news on the other. Goldman then closed −0.23% after being up 2.8% pre-market, UnitedHealth closed −0.20% after being up 2.2%, and the Dow finished as the weaker of the two. Micron fell another 3.63%. Nvidia rose 0.97%, so the memory selloff did not spread to the AI leaders. Utilities led, with the Dow Utilities +0.69%, which fits a market lowering risk before CPI.
What carries over: The Hammack-Waller disagreement over whether higher yields are a reason to tighten is unresolved, and CPI is the first data on it. In bank earnings, the reaction has been to sell beats as well as misses: Goldman beat and closed lower, and JPMorgan missed and recovered intraday. Today's banks open into that.

Yesterday's Data

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

05:40 · Fed's Bowman, supervision (done) · n/a · n/a · USD

07:00 · MBA mortgage apps (printed −2.7%; 30Y 7.50%) · n/a · −4.2% / 7.49% · USD · rates

08:30 · CPI m/m, Sep · 0.6% · 0.4% · USD · GC · ES/NQ · rates

08:30 · CPI y/y, Sep · 3.6% · 3.4% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Core CPI m/m, Sep · 0.2% · 0.3% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Core CPI y/y, Sep · 2.5% · 2.4% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:55 · Redbook retail sales y/y (holiday shift) · n/a · n/a · ES

11:30 · 17-week bill auction · n/a · n/a · rates

13:30 · Fed's Barkin speaks · n/a · n/a · USD

14:00 · Fed Beige Book · n/a · n/a · USD · rates · ES

16:30 · API crude stocks (holiday shift) · n/a · n/a · CL

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Fed event times from the Federal Reserve calendar.

The 08:30 slot is CPI and nothing else on the US calendar, checked against TradingEconomics and the Fed's own calendar. The holiday has moved the usual Wednesday EIA crude release to Thursday 12:00. Earnings out before the open: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley. TradingEconomics also lists the September monthly budget statement with no time attached. It was due Tuesday, and it is left out of the table because its release time could not be confirmed.

CPI is the fulcrum, and the gap between core and headline is what matters. The market expects headline to jump to 0.6% on energy while core cools to 0.2%. TradingEconomics' own forecast is lower on headline, at 0.5%. A hot core (0.3% or more) is the outcome that tests the rate path, because Hammack's case for tightening is that inflation is broadening beyond energy. A hot headline with core at 0.2% is the oil shock showing up as expected. The Beige Book at 14:00 is the Fed's anecdotal read on whether the energy shock is spreading into wages and prices, and it is the second test of the same question.

Index Movers

Ranked by likely index contribution. Pre-market moves and Tuesday closes are as of 07:53 ET.

BAC −4.45% pre-market, after −1.14% Tuesday. Q3 diluted EPS was $0.91, against roughly $1.10 expected. That includes a $1.2B regulatory settlement charge (OCC and FinCEN consent orders on Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money-laundering compliance), which cost $0.17 a share. Excluding it, EPS was $1.08. Revenue was $30.0B, +3% (company release, SEC 8-K). The charge is not tax-deductible. BAC is an S&P 500 name and not in the Dow, so it hits ES through the financials sector and not YM.
GS −0.76% pre-market, after −0.23% Tuesday. It is the largest Dow drag this morning, because the Dow is price-weighted and Goldman is one of its highest-priced members. This is the second session in a row in which Tuesday's beat has been sold.
AAPL +0.73% and MSFT +0.56% pre-market. They hit all three indices, and they are most of why ES is positive while NQ is not. No single catalyst was found for either.
MU −1.03% pre-market, after −3.63% Tuesday. It is a large Nasdaq-100 weight, and it is the main reason NQ is red overnight. This is the third straight down session on the CXMT memory-cell news.
NVDA −0.60% pre-market, after +0.97% Tuesday. It is the largest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight, so it adds to NQ's drag.
MS −0.61% pre-market, after −1.78% Tuesday. Q3 EPS was $3.03 on $20.3B of net revenue, up from $18.2B (company release, SEC 8-K). That is slightly below the roughly $3.13 consensus (Benzinga), and return on tangible common equity fell to 22.6%. MS is in the S&P 500, not the Dow.

What Would Change The Read

Scoring Tuesday's calls. We asked whether the pre-market NQ/YM split would survive the cash open. It did not: YM's +0.70% became a −0.35% Dow close, as Goldman and UnitedHealth gave back their pre-market gains. We asked whether the memory selloff would spread to the AI leaders. It did not: MU fell another 3.6% and NVDA rose 1%. We asked whether the 10-year would stay below Friday's level. It did, closing 3bp lower (US Treasury). We asked whether Brent would hold its overnight low. It settled above it, at −0.9% on the day. Its intraday low was not checked.
Whether gold's split from yields survives CPI. If gold keeps falling after a soft print with lower yields, the selling is not about the rate path.
Whether CAD catches up with oil. USD/CAD is flat with WTI up 1.9%. If oil holds its gain into the cash session and CAD still does not respond, the rate story is outweighing the commodity story for 6C.
Whether bank-earnings selling becomes a sector trend. Two sessions in a row, banks have been sold whether they beat or missed. If BAC's −4.5% leads Financials lower through the session, that is ES's drag, not NQ's.
Whether WTI holds near the top of its overnight range into the 16:30 API release, with the Hormuz reports still developing.

The Bottom Line

Today has one event. CPI at 08:30 will set the session's direction, and the overnight market has hedged rather than positioned for it: index futures are flat, the dollar is flat, and the moves are in commodities on Hormuz shipping news. The real question is core: whether the oil shock stays in the headline or has spread into everything else. Gold falling while yields fall is the one market already behaving as if it knows the answer, and by the Beige Book at 14:00 the session should show whether it was right.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._