Calendar › EIA weekly petroleum status (crude inventories) › 2026-10-15

Crude −8.6M vs −0.3M Est — Gulf Coast Drains 9.2M as Output Drops 300K b/d

Fundamentals · 2026-10-15

Commercial crude −8.557M to 415.6M in the week ended 9 October (vs −0.3M est (TradingEconomics); API −11.1M), now 1.9% below a year ago, from 0.9% above; adjustment −308 kb/d, about 2.2M barrels, so measured flows alone still point to a −6.4M draw; production −300 kb/d to 13.68 mb/d; imports −791 kb/d to 6.05 mb/d, exports −195 kb/d to 4.57 mb/d; refinery runs +135 kb/d to 16.62 mb/d, utilization 93.5% from 92.7%; Gulf Coast −9.24M, Cushing +1.86M to 26.6M, 20.9% above a year ago; SPR unchanged at 283.0M; gasoline +3.518M; distillate −2.527M, 12.3% below a year ago; propane −1.47M; total products supplied 21.4 mb/d, +965 kb/d; total commercial stocks −13.38M.

What It Changes

• The API draw was real. Wednesday's API reading of −11.1 million had the direction; EIA confirmed a draw of 8.6 million against a 0.3 million consensus. Unlike last week, the adjustment explains only about a quarter of it: measured flows alone point to a 6.4 million draw.
• Two supply lines did the work. Production fell 300 kb/d and crude imports fell 791 kb/d, while refiners ran harder. Less crude came in and more went into refineries.
• The draw was all on the Gulf Coast. Gulf Coast stocks fell 9.2 million barrels; Cushing built 1.9 million for a third straight week. The tightness is where the export and refining hub is, not at the delivery point for the WTI contract.
• Products split. Gasoline built 3.5 million as demand fell, while distillate drew 2.5 million on a 673 kb/d jump in demand. Distillate is the line to watch going into heating season.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Bullish — an 8.6 million barrel draw against a 0.3 million expected, with production and imports both down and refinery runs up.
• The release minute was flat: the front month closed 12:00 −0.03% from its 11:59 close. It then drifted up, +0.25% by 12:10 and +0.37% by 12:34 ET. The API had already flagged the draw, and The Open noted WTI had been outrunning Brent for three sessions on that expectation.
• On the day, WTI's front month is +3.24% and Brent's +0.05% at 12:34 ET. Most of that gap opened before the release, and this brief doesn't attribute it to the report.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — energy names benefit at the margin, but there is no index-level read.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no mechanism worth writing down.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 8.557 million barrels to 415.577 million in the week ended 9 October, against a consensus draw of 0.3 million (TradingEconomics; The Open carried the same). The API had reported an 11.1 million barrel draw on Wednesday, so the direction was flagged in advance. It is the second straight EIA draw, after −3.186 million last week, and the largest of the two by far. Stocks are now 1.9% below the same week last year, from 0.9% above. Including the SPR, total crude fell the same 8.557 million to 698.6 million, 16.0% below a year ago. The report came a day late because of Monday's holiday.

This time the adjustment is not the story. EIA's crude balancing item printed −308 kb/d, after −589 kb/d last week. Over seven days that is about 2.16 million barrels. The commercial stock change was −1,222 kb/d; take the adjustment out and the measured flows point to −914 kb/d, about a 6.4 million barrel draw. Last week the adjustment turned a flow build into a draw; this week the flows drew on their own. The adjustment has now run +577, +215, −238, −589 and −308 kb/d over five weeks.

Supply fell on two fronts. Domestic production fell 300 kb/d to 13.679 mb/d, with Lower 48 output down 276 kb/d and Alaska 24 kb/d. It came in the week Hurricane Isaias approached the Gulf of Mexico, though EIA does not attribute it. Crude imports fell 791 kb/d to 6.049 mb/d after last week's 1,142 kb/d jump, and exports fell 195 kb/d to 4.570 mb/d, so net imports fell 596 kb/d to 1.479 mb/d. Weekly trade swings are large and often reverse.

Refiners ran harder. Crude inputs rose 135 kb/d to 16.615 mb/d, 9.8% above a year ago, and utilization rose 0.8 points to 93.5%. The Gulf Coast ran at 96.3%, up 1.2 points, and the East Coast recovered 3.2 points to 81.1% after two weeks of falls. The Rocky Mountain region eased 4.1 points to 94.6% and the West Coast 2.0 points to 93.2%. Gross inputs rose 159 kb/d.

Regionally, the Gulf Coast carried the whole draw. Gulf Coast stocks fell 9.239 million barrels to 234.4 million, 4.2% below a year ago. That region holds the export terminals and most refining capacity, and it is where lower production, lower imports and higher runs all land. Cushing rose 1.862 million to 26.607 million, a third straight weekly build, now 20.9% above a year ago. The rest of the Midwest drew about 1.8 million, so PADD 2 was flat overall. The West Coast built 633,000 and the Rocky Mountain region 358,000; the East Coast drew 331,000 and Alaska in-transit 849,000.

Products split along demand lines. Gasoline rose 3.518 million barrels to 208.3 million, as gasoline supplied fell 362 kb/d to 8.408 mb/d. Gasoline is now 4.8% below a year ago, from 6.5%. Distillate fell 2.527 million to 102.6 million, with ultra-low-sulphur diesel down 2.154 million, as distillate supplied jumped 673 kb/d to 4.323 mb/d and distillate output fell 101 kb/d to 5.189 mb/d. Distillate is 12.3% below a year ago, from 13.5%. Jet fuel rose 291,000, propane fell 1.471 million, and total commercial petroleum stocks fell 13.384 million barrels, 5.0% below a year ago.

Demand bounced back. Total products supplied rose 965 kb/d to 21.361 mb/d, more than reversing last week's 1,105 kb/d fall. The four-week average is 21.077 mb/d, 2.0% above a year ago. Gasoline's four-week average is 0.4% below last year and distillate's 0.2% below, so the strength is in propane and other oils rather than the main fuels. Product exports fell 699 kb/d to 7.374 mb/d. Counting crude and products together, the US was a net exporter of 4.373 mb/d.

The SPR did not move. It held at 282.983 million barrels, 30.6% below a year ago, after two weeks of 784,000 barrel draws at 112 kb/d.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 9 October:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 415.577 · 424.134 · −8.557 · 423.785 · −1.9%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 282.983 · 282.983 · 0.000 · 407.745 · −30.6%

Total crude including SPR · 698.560 · 707.117 · −8.557 · 831.530 · −16.0%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 26.607 · 24.745 · +1.862 · 22.001 · +20.9%

Total motor gasoline · 208.262 · 204.744 · +3.518 · 218.826 · −4.8%

Distillate fuel oil · 102.611 · 105.138 · −2.527 · 117.030 · −12.3%

Ultra-low-sulphur distillate · 91.580 · 93.734 · −2.154 · 106.549 · −14.0%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 42.795 · 42.504 · +0.291 · 44.414 · −3.6%

Propane and propylene · 106.375 · 107.846 · −1.471 · 102.376 · +3.9%

Residual fuel oil · 24.167 · 23.881 · +0.286 · 21.424 · +12.8%

Fuel ethanol · 23.942 · 23.743 · +0.199 · 22.628 · +5.8%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,224.016 · 1,237.400 · −13.384 · 1,288.820 · −5.0%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 7.413 · −0.331 · 8.089 · −8.4%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 107.004 · +0.023 · 102.024 · +4.9%

Of which: Cushing · 26.607 · +1.862 · 22.001 · +20.9%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 234.359 · −9.239 · 244.582 · −4.2%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 22.710 · +0.358 · 23.102 · −1.7%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 44.091 · +0.633 · 45.988 · −4.1%

Alaska in-transit · 3.506 · −0.849 · 3.889 · −9.8%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 13,679 · 13,979 · −300 · 13,636

Crude imports · 6,049 · 6,840 · −791 · 5,525

Crude exports · 4,570 · 4,765 · −195 · 4,466

Net imports · 1,479 · 2,075 · −596 · 1,059

Refinery crude inputs · 16,615 · 16,480 · +135 · 15,130

Commercial stock change · −1,222 · −455 · −767 · +503

Adjustment · −308 · −589 · +281 · +587

Stock change excluding the adjustment · −914 · +134 · −1,048 · −84

The adjustment, five weeks:

Week ended · Adjustment, kb/d · About, million barrels · Headline change, million barrels

11 September · +577 · +4.0 · n/a

18 September · +215 · +1.5 · +2.97

25 September · −238 · −1.7 · +0.92

2 October · −589 · −4.1 · −3.19

9 October · −308 · −2.2 · −8.56

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Total · 93.5% · 92.7% · +0.8 · 85.7%

East Coast · 81.1% · 77.9% · +3.2 · 93.4%

Midwest · 89.7% · 88.2% · +1.5 · 85.5%

Gulf Coast · 96.3% · 95.0% · +1.2 · 87.1%

Rocky Mountain · 94.6% · 98.8% · −4.1 · 89.5%

West Coast · 93.2% · 95.2% · −2.0 · 77.3%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · Four-week average · vs year ago, four-week

Total · 21,361 · +965 · 21,077 · +2.0%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,408 · −362 · 8,678 · −0.4%

Distillate fuel oil · 4,323 · +673 · 3,974 · −0.2%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,625 · −71 · 1,695 · +2.3%

Propane and propylene · 1,209 · +436 · 958 · +12.8%

Residual fuel oil · 184 · −122 · 265 · +1.0%

Other oils · 5,613 · +411 · 5,507 · +5.8%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open called it. It said "EIA confirms or contradicts it at 12:00 today," referring to API's 11.1 million barrel draw, "with −0.3M expected," and added that "WTI's strength against Brent suggests the market is already leaning toward a draw" — The Open. EIA confirmed: a draw of 8.6 million, close to API and far from consensus.
• The market had priced it. The release minute was flat and the front month added only about 0.4% over the next half hour, consistent with The Open's read that the draw was already expected.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA petroleum report: expected Wednesday, 21 October, 10:30am ET, covering the week to 16 October, back on its normal schedule.
• The read to confirm or break is whether the production drop reverses. If the 300 kb/d fall was hurricane-related, next week should show output recovering. If it holds, the draw has a supply cause that lasts.
• Watch the Gulf Coast against Cushing. The Gulf Coast drew 9.2 million while Cushing built for a third week. Continued Cushing builds would ease tightness at the WTI delivery point even as coastal stocks fall.
• Watch distillate demand. A 673 kb/d jump took distillate supplied above a year ago for the week. Another strong week into heating season, with stocks 12.3% below last year, is the tightest product picture in the report.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, normally released Wednesday at 10:30am ET and moved to Thursday at 12:00 this week because of Monday's holiday. It reports US crude and product inventories, production, imports and exports, refinery runs and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday, from surveys of refiners, terminals, pipelines and importers.
• Why it matters: Crude has been driven this autumn by Middle East supply disruptions, attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the partial recovery of Gulf exports. US inventories show whether the physical market is tightening or loosening at home. Distillate stocks also feed directly into diesel and heating oil costs, which is where the inflation reports this week found the sharpest price increases.
• How to read it: Start with commercial crude against consensus and against the API figure released the evening before. Then check the adjustment, EIA's balancing item: a large adjustment means the headline is not fully explained by measured flows. Read Cushing separately, because it is the WTI delivery point. Then read gasoline and distillate with products supplied, which show whether demand or supply moved the stocks. Weekly trade figures swing widely, so use four-week averages for the trend.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._