Calendar › ADP weekly employment (NER Pulse) › 2026-10-13
ADP Weekly Hiring 24,750 — First Dip in Six Weeks, After a Revision Up to 25,250
Fundamentals · 2026-10-13
Private employers added an average of 24,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending 26 September, down 500 from a revised 25,250 for the four weeks to 19 September, which was first published at 23,750 a week ago. First decline after five straight rises, but still up 1,000 on the figure published last week. The revision, +1,500, is the largest of the recent newest-week revisions and the third straight upward one. 25,250 is the highest reading since the four weeks to 6 June (30,750); today's 24,750 is the second highest. Monthly equivalent about 107,200. 200% above the 8,250 trough of 25 July. All other overlapping weeks unrevised. Preliminary, seasonally adjusted, two-week lag, no published consensus. Next release 20 October.
What It Changes
- The headline dipped, but the data got stronger. The 19 September week was revised up 1,500 to 25,250, so today's 24,750 is a small step down from a higher level, not a stall at the old one.
- Last week's "fading momentum" read did not survive the revision. The gain into 19 September is now +2,750, larger than the +2,500 before it, so the run of shrinking increases broke before today's dip.
- Hiring is running above 100,000 a month for a second straight reading, about 107,200 now, close to the pace of early June before the summer slump.
- It adds to the hawkish side of the Fed debate without settling it. A labour market hiring at this pace gives no reason to wait, but the October and December decisions still turn on prices.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — the upward revision matters more than the 500-job dip, and it points to a firmer labour market than last week's release showed.
- The series has no consensus and little record of moving markets on its own, and tomorrow's CPI sits directly in front of it.
- Rate odds could not be refreshed this morning; The Open's last snapshot, from 7 October, put an October hike near 17% and December near 73%.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed — steady hiring supports earnings, but it also supports the case for higher rates, which matters most for NQ.
- RTY has the most direct exposure to both domestic hiring and short rates, so the two effects offset most clearly there.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — firmer hiring is one more reason for the Fed to keep tightening, and gold has been trading on real rates and the dollar this week rather than as a haven.
Inside The Number
The NER Pulse reported 24,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending 26 September. ADP's own description: "After five straight weeks of strengthening, hiring slowed." That is accurate against the revised table and misleading against last week's release. Against the 23,750 published on 6 October, today's figure is 1,000 higher. Against the revised 25,250, it is 500 lower.
The revision is the bigger number. The four weeks to 19 September moved up 1,500, from 23,750 to 25,250. That is three times the size of any recent newest-week revision and the third upward revision in a row to the newest week: +250 to 22 August (published 15 September), +500 to 29 August (22 September), and now +1,500 to 19 September. The revisions are getting bigger, and every one has been upward. When the real-time estimate has been wrong lately, it has understated hiring, and by more each time.
The revision also undoes last week's main caveat. The 6 October brief noted that the weekly gains had shrunk four times in a row: +4,500, +3,250, +2,500 and +1,250. With 19 September revised, that last gain is +2,750, larger than the one before it. The levelling-off pattern was a product of the first estimate. Today's -500 is the first actual decline since the four weeks to 15 August.
On level, the series is back near early June. 25,250 is the highest reading since the four weeks to 6 June (30,750), and today's 24,750 is above the 24,250 of 13 June. At 4.33 weeks to the month, today's pace is about 107,200 jobs a month and the revised prior about 109,300. Today's figure is exactly three times the 8,250 trough of 25 July, and still 19.5% below the 6 June reading.
What a 500-job dip means. The Pulse is a four-week moving average, so a 500 drop means the newest week, the one ending 26 September, added about 2,000 fewer jobs than the week it replaced, ending 29 August. One soft week inside a four-week window does not move the trend much, and the next revision could erase it: the newest week has been revised up in each of the last three releases.
The narrative point: the "low-hire" half of this year's low-fire, low-hire labour market has recovered to its pre-summer pace in ADP's data, and the real-time figures have been underestimating that recovery. Firing is still low. That gives the Fed no labour-market reason to hold off, which leaves the decision to inflation.
The Internals
Comparison · Reading · Gap · Read
This week, four weeks to 26 September · 24,750 per week · n/a · The headline
Four weeks to 19 September, revised · 25,250 per week · Down 2.0% · First decline in six weeks
Four weeks to 19 September, as published 6 October · 23,750 per week · Up 4.2% · Higher than last week's published figure
Four weeks to 13 June · 24,250 per week · Up 2.1% · Now exceeded
Four weeks to 6 June · 30,750 per week · Down 19.5% · Last reading above 25,250
Trough, four weeks to 25 July · 8,250 per week · Up 200.0% · Exactly tripled
Monthly equivalents, at 4.33 weeks to the month:
Window · Per week · Monthly equivalent · Note
Four weeks to 26 September · 24,750 · About 107,200 · Today's headline
Four weeks to 19 September, revised · 25,250 · About 109,300 · Highest since early June
Four weeks to 12 September · 22,500 · About 97,400 · Covers the September reference week
Four weeks to 5 September · 20,000 · About 86,600 · Unrevised
Trough, four weeks to 25 July · 8,250 · About 35,700 · The low
Recent newest-week revisions:
Week ending · First published · Revised to · Revision · Revised in release of
22 August 2026 · 12,000 · 12,250 · +250 · 15 September
29 August 2026 · 16,250 · 16,750 · +500 · 22 September
12 September 2026 · 22,500 · 22,500 · 0 · 13 October
19 September 2026 · 23,750 · 25,250 · +1,500 · 13 October
The Twelve-Week Table
Every week in today's release, against the 6 October release:
Week ending · Today's release · 6 October release · Change · Weekly increase
26 September 2026 · 24,750 · Not yet published · New · -500
19 September 2026 · 25,250 · 23,750 · Revised up 1,500 · +2,750
12 September 2026 · 22,500 · 22,500 · Unrevised · +2,500
5 September 2026 · 20,000 · 20,000 · Unrevised · +3,250
29 August 2026 · 16,750 · 16,750 · Unrevised · +4,500
22 August 2026 · 12,250 · 12,250 · Unrevised · +2,250
15 August 2026 · 10,000 · 10,000 · Unrevised · -1,750
8 August 2026 · 11,750 · 11,750 · Unrevised · +2,250
1 August 2026 · 9,500 · 9,500 · Unrevised · +1,250
25 July 2026 · 8,250 · 8,250 · Unrevised · -2,750
18 July 2026 · 11,000 · 11,000 · Unrevised · -3,500
11 July 2026 · 14,500 · 14,500 · Unrevised · -1,750
4 July 2026 · Rolled off · 16,250 · No longer shown · n/a
- One revision, one new week. Ten of the eleven overlapping weeks are unchanged; only 19 September moved.
- The 4 July week rolled off, so the table now spans 11 July to 26 September.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open listed the Pulse at 08:15 with no consensus and a prior of +23.75K, and said "Existing home sales at 10:00 is the only US print today likely to move anything."
- That held: the 08:15 figure itself barely changed from the published prior. The story is the revision to that prior, which The Open could not have known about.
What This Sets Up
- Next NER Pulse: Tuesday 20 October, covering the four weeks to 3 October.
- Confirms the read: the 26 September week revised up again, or a new reading at or above 24,000, which keeps the monthly pace above 100,000.
- Breaks it: a second decline toward the 22,500 of mid-September, which would make today's dip the start of a turn rather than one soft week.
- Watch the revision to 26 September. Three upward revisions in a row, each larger than the last, is a pattern; a fourth would mean the first estimate is systematically understating hiring.
What Is This?
- What it is: The NER Pulse, a weekly preliminary estimate from ADP's payroll records, published as a companion to the monthly ADP National Employment Report and produced with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It reports the average weekly change in US private employment over a rolling four-week window, seasonally adjusted, with a two-week lag so the payroll data is more complete when it is published. It comes out Tuesdays at 08:15 ET, except in weeks when the monthly report is published.
- Why it matters: Hiring, not firing, has been the weak part of this year's labour market, and this is the quickest read on it. Jobless claims show whether people are being laid off; this series shows whether anyone is being hired. With the Fed debating further hikes, the strength of hiring decides how much room the labour market gives it.
- How to read it: It is a four-week moving average, so each new week contributes only a quarter of the change, and a change of X in the average means the newest week differed from the week it replaced by about 4X. Multiply by about 4.33 for a monthly equivalent. There is no published consensus, so there is no beat or miss, only direction, level and revisions. The table is a rolling twelve-week window, so compare against fixed reference points rather than the high and low on the page.
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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._