Crude -3.2M vs +1.7M Est — A 4.1M Adjustment Turned a Flow Build Into a Draw

Fundamentals · 2026-10-07

Commercial crude -3.186M to 424.1M in the week ended 2 October (vs +1.7M est; API -2.09M), 0.9% above a year ago; adjustment -589 kb/d, about 4.1M barrels, so measured flows alone point to a +0.9M build; Cushing +0.444M to 24.7M, a second weekly build; Gulf Coast -3.90M, Midwest +1.87M; crude exports +1,195 kb/d to 4.77 mb/d and imports +1,142 kb/d to 6.84 mb/d, so net imports barely moved; refinery runs +223 kb/d to 16.48 mb/d, utilization 92.7% from 92.5%; gasoline +0.382M (vs -1.7M est); distillate -0.042M (vs -2.1M est), 13.5% below a year ago; jet fuel -1.11M; propane -1.80M; SPR -0.784M to 283.0M; total products supplied 20.4 mb/d, -1,105 kb/d; total commercial stocks -6.91M.

What It Changes

• The headline draw came from EIA's balancing item, not from measured barrels. Commercial crude fell 3.19 million barrels against a 1.7 million build expected, but the adjustment took out about 4.1 million. On production, trade and refinery runs alone, stocks would have risen about 0.9 million.
• The rest of the report leans the other way. Gasoline built 382,000 barrels against a 1.7 million draw expected, distillate was flat against a 2.1 million draw expected, and total products supplied fell 1.1 mb/d.
• Refiners ran slightly harder. Runs rose 223 kb/d after two weekly falls, but utilization only edged up to 92.7%. That doesn't settle whether autumn maintenance is over.
• The market didn't treat it as a bullish surprise. November WTI slipped about 46 cents in the 10 minutes after the release, even though the headline draw was 4.9 million barrels away from the consensus.

Impact

• Crude (CL) — Mixed, lean bearish — the headline draw is bullish taken alone, but the adjustment explains all of it, and the product side was softer than expected on both gasoline and distillate.
• November WTI closed the 10:29 minute at $89.86, traded down to $89.40 by 10:40 and was back at $89.81 by 10:45 (Yahoo Finance 1-minute bars). A draw this far below consensus did not lift it.
• December Brent did the same: $101.76 at 10:29, a low of $101.32 at 10:40, then $101.88 at 10:45 (Yahoo Finance).
• By about 14:30 ET, WTI was $88.53, $0.91 below Tuesday's $89.44 settle. That move came after the release window, and this brief does not attribute it to the report.
• USD — Neutral — inventories do not price the dollar.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — no read-through to index level from a week this mixed.
• Gold (GC) — Neutral — no mechanism worth writing down.

Inside The Number

Commercial crude inventories excluding the SPR fell 3.186 million barrels to 424.134 million in the week ended 2 October, against a consensus build of 1.7 million (Trading Economics and TradingView agree; The Open carried +1.9 million). The API had reported a 2.09 million barrel draw on Tuesday evening, so the direction was flagged overnight. It is the first EIA draw in three weeks, after builds of 2.97 million and 922,000. Stocks are now 0.9% above the same week last year, down from 2.6% above a week ago. Including the SPR, total crude fell 3.970 million barrels to 707.1 million, 14.5% below a year ago.

The adjustment explains the whole draw. EIA's crude balancing item printed -589 kb/d, after -238 kb/d last week. Over seven days that is about 4.12 million barrels. The commercial stock change was -455 kb/d; take the adjustment out and the measured flows (production, net imports and refinery inputs) point to +134 kb/d, about a 0.9 million barrel build. The adjustment has now gone from +577 to +215 to -238 to -589 kb/d over four weeks. Two weeks ago it added about 1.5 million barrels to the headline; this week it took 4.1 million away.

Trade got much bigger in both directions. Crude exports rose 1,195 kb/d to 4.765 mb/d, after 3.570 mb/d the week before, and imports rose 1,142 kb/d to 6.840 mb/d. Net imports fell only 53 kb/d to 2.075 mb/d, so trade barely affected the stock change despite the size of the moves. The four-week export average is 4.112 mb/d, 3.8% below a year ago.

Refiners took more crude after two weekly falls. Crude inputs rose 223 kb/d to 16.480 mb/d, 1.1% above a year ago, and utilization rose 0.2 points to 92.7%. Gross inputs rose only 41 kb/d. Regionally, the picture is split. East Coast utilization fell another 4.5 points to 77.9%, after falling 6.7 points last week, while the Midwest recovered 2.7 points to 88.2%. The Gulf Coast eased to 95.0% from 95.9%.

Regionally, the Gulf Coast drew and the Midwest built. Gulf Coast stocks fell 3.898 million barrels to 243.6 million. The Midwest rose 1.872 million, including a 444,000 barrel build at Cushing to 24.745 million, now 9.0% above a year ago. The West Coast drew 766,000, the East Coast 250,000 and the Rocky Mountain region 144,000. Alaska in-transit rose 342,000.

Products did not tighten the way the consensus expected. Gasoline rose 382,000 barrels to 204.7 million against a 1.7 million draw expected, and is 6.5% below a year ago, from 7.4% last week. Distillate fell just 42,000 barrels to 105.1 million against a 2.1 million draw expected. Inside it, ultra-low-sulphur diesel fell 654,000 while high-sulphur distillate rose 668,000. Distillate output rose 287 kb/d to 5.290 mb/d. Distillate is still 13.5% below a year ago, but that gap has narrowed from 14.9%. Jet fuel fell 1.108 million and propane fell 1.801 million, so total commercial petroleum stocks still fell 6.913 million barrels.

Demand fell back after last week's jump. Total products supplied fell 1,105 kb/d to 20.396 mb/d, giving back more than the prior week's 450 kb/d rise. The four-week average is 21.050 mb/d, 0.7% above a year ago, from 2.1% above last week. Distillate supplied fell 299 kb/d to 3.650 mb/d, and its four-week average is now 1.6% below last year, against 5.2% above a week ago. Gasoline supplied edged up 81 kb/d to 8.769 mb/d. Product exports rose 579 kb/d to 8.073 mb/d.

The SPR fell another 784,000 barrels to 282.983 million, 30.5% below a year ago, at the same 112 kb/d pace as last week. Domestic crude production rose 24 kb/d to 13.979 mb/d.

The Internals

Stocks, in millions of barrels, week ended 2 October:

Series · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

Commercial crude excluding SPR · 424.134 · 427.320 · -3.186 · 420.261 · +0.9%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve · 282.983 · 283.767 · -0.784 · 406.985 · -30.5%

Total crude including SPR · 707.117 · 711.087 · -3.970 · 827.246 · -14.5%

Cushing, Oklahoma · 24.745 · 24.301 · +0.444 · 22.704 · +9.0%

Total motor gasoline · 204.744 · 204.362 · +0.382 · 219.093 · -6.5%

Distillate fuel oil · 105.138 · 105.180 · -0.042 · 121.559 · -13.5%

Ultra-low-sulphur distillate · 93.734 · 94.389 · -0.654 · 110.597 · -15.2%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 42.504 · 43.612 · -1.108 · 44.268 · -4.0%

Propane and propylene · 107.846 · 109.647 · -1.801 · 100.501 · +7.3%

Residual fuel oil · 23.881 · 23.432 · +0.450 · 21.169 · +12.8%

Fuel ethanol · 23.743 · 23.865 · -0.122 · 22.720 · +4.5%

Total stocks excluding SPR · 1,237.400 · 1,244.313 · -6.913 · 1,287.157 · -3.9%

Commercial crude by region, millions of barrels:

Region · This week · Change · Year ago · vs year ago

East Coast (PADD 1) · 7.744 · -0.250 · 6.658 · +16.3%

Midwest (PADD 2) · 106.981 · +1.872 · 100.714 · +6.2%

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · 243.599 · -3.898 · 244.467 · -0.4%

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) · 22.352 · -0.144 · 22.441 · -0.4%

West Coast (PADD 5) · 43.458 · -0.766 · 45.981 · -5.5%

Alaska in-transit · 4.355 · +0.342 · 3.236 · +34.6%

Crude balance, thousand barrels per day:

Line · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Domestic production · 13,979 · 13,955 · +24 · 13,629

Imports · 6,840 · 5,698 · +1,142 · 6,403

Exports · 4,765 · 3,570 · +1,195 · 3,590

Net imports · 2,075 · 2,128 · -53 · 2,813

Refinery crude inputs · 16,480 · 16,257 · +223 · 16,297

Adjustment · -589 · -238 · -351 · 161

Commercial stock change · -455 · 132 · -587 · 531

SPR stock change · -112 · -112 · 0 · 41

Refinery utilization by region:

Region · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

United States · 92.7% · 92.5% · +0.2pp · 92.4%

East Coast · 77.9% · 82.5% · -4.5pp · 92.0%

Midwest · 88.2% · 85.6% · +2.7pp · 94.7%

Gulf Coast · 95.0% · 95.9% · -0.8pp · 93.5%

Rocky Mountain · 98.8% · 97.3% · +1.5pp · 96.1%

West Coast · 95.2% · 93.4% · +1.8pp · 83.6%

Products supplied, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Change · 4-week average · vs year ago, 4 weeks

Total · 20,396 · -1,105 · 21,050 · +0.7%

Finished motor gasoline · 8,769 · +81 · 8,776 · -0.3%

Distillate fuel oil · 3,650 · -299 · 3,769 · -1.6%

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,696 · -113 · 1,739 · +6.0%

Propane and propylene · 773 · -312 · 915 · -2.5%

Refinery output and product exports, thousand barrels per day:

Product · This week · Last week · Change · Year ago

Finished motor gasoline · 9,349 · 9,466 · -117 · 9,753

Distillate fuel oil · 5,290 · 5,003 · +287 · 5,169

Kerosene-type jet fuel · 1,863 · 1,852 · +11 · 1,781

Product exports · 8,073 · 7,494 · +579 · 6,810

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open carried EIA crude at a +1.9 million build and API's 2.09 million draw, and said "a second draw would contradict the consensus". It did: EIA printed a 3.19 million draw, in line with API.
• The Open also said a crude draw at 10:30 "would add to the oil move". It didn't. WTI and Brent both dipped after the release, and the adjustment and the soft product numbers explain why.

What This Sets Up

• Next EIA weekly petroleum report — Thursday, 15 October 2026, 12:00 ET, a day later than usual because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday 12 October, with API on Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 ET (TradingView calendar).
• The test is the adjustment. It has swung by hundreds of kb/d each week; if it reverses sign, next week's headline will overstate a build as much as this one overstated the draw.
• Watch distillate. Production rose and demand fell this week, which narrowed the gap to last year. Another flat week would narrow it further; a return to 2 million barrel draws would widen it again.
• Watch refinery runs. East Coast utilization is down to 77.9%. A rebound would draw more crude; a further fall would leave more of it in tanks.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released Wednesdays at 10:30 ET (moved when a federal holiday falls early in the week). It reports US crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery activity, production, imports, exports and products supplied (a proxy for demand) for the week ending the previous Friday. The inventory figures come from surveys of refineries, pipelines and terminals.
• Why it matters: It is the most closely watched weekly read on the physical oil market, and crude has been driven this autumn by Middle East supply disruptions, attacks on shipping and the partial recovery of Gulf exports. Inventory builds and draws show whether the physical market is loosening or tightening. Distillate stocks also matter for inflation, since diesel and heating oil feed into transport and household costs.
• How to read it: The headline is the weekly change in commercial crude stocks excluding the SPR, compared with consensus and with the API's report the night before. A build is bearish for crude, a draw bullish. Read it together with refinery runs, exports and imports, which explain most weekly swings. The "adjustment" line is EIA's balancing item for barrels it cannot account for. When it is large, as this week, the headline may not match physical flows. Products supplied measures product leaving primary storage, not final consumption.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._