Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-10-15

AI rout hits Asia. Bonds and gold catch the bid

Rundown · 2026-10-15

Wednesday's hot CPI turned into an AI selloff, and Asia extended it overnight. The Nasdaq fell 1.88% and the S&P 500 1.11%, its worst day since July (AP), while the Dow lost only 0.09% on a rotation into health care. Overnight, Seoul's Kospi fell 7.57% and the Nikkei 4.90%, led by chip and AI names. The bond market has answered with a haven bid, not a rate-hike trade: the 10-year yield is about 9bp lower overnight, after closing at 5.19% (US Treasury). The dollar has given back its whole CPI gain, DXY −0.51%, and gold is +1.71%, which recovers all of Wednesday's 1.66% loss. Index futures are split again: NQ −1.23% and ES −0.31%, but YM +0.23% and RTY +0.20%. Five US releases land at 08:30, led by PPI and retail sales. This run started late, at about 07:30 ET. Quotes are as of 07:26-07:37 ET. Nothing on the US calendar has printed yet.

Overnight

• Against Wednesday's settles, 07:27 ET. ES −0.31% · NQ −1.23% · YM +0.23% · RTY +0.20%. YM leads NQ by 1.5 points of %. That is wider than Tuesday morning's 1.4-point split, which did not survive the cash session.
• Ranges as reference, not as a forecast. NQ has ranged 1.36% overnight. It has not traded above Wednesday's settle at any point: its high is 0.08% below it. It sits in the bottom fifth of the range, 1.23% below the settle. ES has ranged 0.51%, its high level with the settle, and it sits in the lower half. YM's range is 0.65% and RTY's 0.71%, and both sit mid-range above their settles. The 08:30 cluster lands inside all four ranges.
• Asia was the selloff's second leg. Kospi −7.57%, down 16% over five sessions, on the chip rout, including a report that SK Hynix has delayed some HBM4 equipment orders. Nikkei −4.90%, its biggest one-day fall since March (wire reports): Advantest fell 13.9%, SoftBank Group 9.4% and Tokyo Electron 7.3%, while pharmaceuticals rose. Hang Seng −1.03%, Shanghai −1.59%, ASX 200 −0.09%. Asian coverage named two triggers: the hot US CPI and reports of distressed debt at CoreWeave.
• Europe is calmer. DAX −0.47%, STOXX 600 −0.24%, CAC 40 +0.16%, FTSE 100 +0.58%. The FTSE's defensive and energy weighting is holding it up.
• TSMC reported before Europe opened, and the beat did not stop the selling. Q3 net income was NT$763.06B, +68.7% y/y, against roughly NT$746B expected (LSEG). Revenue rose 50.9%, and the gross margin was 66.4%. It guided Q4 revenue to US$52.3-54.3B (company 6-K). The TSM ADR fell 3.40% on Wednesday. TSM is not in the S&P 500, but it sets the tone for SOX and NQ.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY −0.51% overnight, after +0.36% on Wednesday. Wednesday's CPI bid took the index to the edge of Monday's 18-month high. Overnight it has given all of that back and now sits below Tuesday's close. This is the dollar falling with US yields, not a risk bid for the dollar.
• 6E carries the move. EUR/USD +0.52%, the largest gain among the majors. The euro is 57.6% of the DXY basket, so most of the index's fall is the euro leg. The driver is the rate differential: the US 2-year is about 6bp lower overnight, after closing at 4.82% (US Treasury).
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.46%, moving with the euro.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.31%. The yen is getting a haven bid, but a modest one, given a 4.9% drop in Tokyo. Lower US yields are doing most of the work.
• 6A is the exception, and the risk gauge to watch. AUD/USD −0.75%, the only major falling against a weaker dollar. The Australian dollar trades as a proxy for Asian risk appetite, and Asian equities are down hard.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.30%, with CAD firming alongside the euro. WTI is little changed overnight, so this is the dollar leg, not oil.
• Rate odds moved sharply on Wednesday, and the trackers disagree. After CPI, FedWatch readings for an October hike ranged from about 32% late in the day to about 49% (as reported by Seeking Alpha), against about 22% before the print. Polymarket reportedly neared 50% and then settled near 30%. No reading from this morning could be verified. Treat the range as Wednesday's, before the overnight bond rally. The FOMC meets on 27-28 October, with the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed).

Energy & Metals

• CL: +1.01% on Wednesday (settle to settle), +0.07% overnight. It is near the top of a 1.9% overnight range. Brent: +0.35% Wednesday, −1.44% overnight. WTI is outperforming Brent by about 1.5 points of %, the third session running in which the spread has narrowed.
• Two catalysts are pulling in opposite directions. Prices fell in Asian trade on reports that the US is considering easing sanctions on the "shadow fleet" tankers that carry Venezuelan, Russian and Iranian oil, which would relieve the tanker shortage. Against that, a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after the projectile strikes reported early that day (wire reports). The IEA's October report adds to the pressure from the supply side: Gulf exports rose in September to about 75% of prewar levels (wire reports).
• US stocks are drawing down. API reported a −11.1M barrel crude draw on Wednesday, against +1.9M expected (TradingEconomics). EIA confirms or contradicts it at 12:00 today, delayed by Monday's holiday, with −0.3M expected. WTI's strength against Brent suggests the market is already leaning toward a draw.
• GC: −1.66% on Wednesday, +1.71% overnight. It sits near the top of a 1.52% range, and the entire overnight range is above Wednesday's settle. Gold is back at Tuesday's settle.
• The mechanism has returned to normal. On Tuesday and Wednesday morning, gold fell while yields fell, and The Open asked whether CPI would explain it. On Wednesday, CPI came in hot, the dollar rose 0.4%, and gold fell 1.7%. Overnight, the 10-year is 9bp lower, the dollar is 0.5% lower, and gold is up 1.7%. Gold is trading as a rates instrument again, so the 08:30 PPI and retail sales are now gold catalysts as much as index catalysts.

Where We Left Off

• Wednesday's RTH: S&P 500 −1.11%, Dow −0.09%, Nasdaq Composite −1.88%, Russell 2000 −1.93% (AP). MarketWatch and Investrade match all four to the second decimal. Nasdaq-100 −2.02%. SOX −4.3%. VIX +4.2%. The S&P 500 has now lost on five of the six sessions since its record high.
• Treasury yields: 10-year 5.19%, 2-year 4.82%, 30-year 5.52% (US Treasury, 14 October). That is −2bp, +3bp and −4bp on the day. 2s10s fell to 37bp from 42bp: the curve flattened as the front end priced in a hike and the long end priced in a slowdown.
• The split under the surface was sector rotation, not breadth. Technology fell about 3%. Health care and consumer staples each rose about 2%. Homebuilders hit an 18-month low on the rate-hike odds, and financials were sold after earnings (Investrade). UnitedHealth +4.73% and Amgen +3.21% held the Dow almost flat while the Nasdaq-100 lost 2%.
• What carries over: the AI-infrastructure trade is now being sold on credit, not only on rates. CoreWeave fell 15.46% as its bonds sold off, and Oracle fell 8.83% with its credit spreads under pressure. Asian coverage cited CoreWeave's debt overnight. That gives NQ a second source of pressure that a soft PPI print would not remove.

Yesterday's Data

• CPI +0.6% as forecast, but core hit 0.3% again and its three-month pace jumped to 3.2%

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:30 · PPI m/m, Sep · 0.5% · 0.4% · USD · GC · rates

08:30 · PPI y/y, Sep · 5.3% · 5.4% · USD · GC · rates

08:30 · Core PPI m/m, Sep · 0.3% · 0.2% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Core PPI y/y, Sep · 4.4% · 4.6% · USD · GC · ES/NQ

08:30 · Retail sales m/m, Sep · 0.3% · 1.2% · USD · ES · RTY

08:30 · Retail sales ex-autos m/m, Sep · 0.5% · 1.4% · USD · ES · RTY

08:30 · Retail sales control group m/m, Sep · 0.3% · 1.4% · USD · ES · rates

08:30 · Initial jobless claims, wk to 10 Oct · 200K · 197K · USD · rates

08:30 · Continuing claims, wk to 3 Oct · 1.710M · 1.716M · USD · rates

08:30 · Empire State manufacturing, Oct · 10.3 · 7.6 · USD · ES

08:30 · Philly Fed manufacturing, Oct · 28.4 · 37.8 · USD · ES

10:00 · Business inventories m/m, Aug · 0.4% · 0.8% · USD

10:30 · EIA natural gas storage · 76 Bcf · 85 Bcf · NG

11:30 · 4- and 8-week bill auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

12:00 · EIA crude stocks (holiday shift) · −0.3M · −3.186M · CL

12:00 · Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate · n/a · 7.40% · rates

16:30 · Fed's Hammack speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

16:30 · Fed balance sheet · n/a · n/a · rates

23:30 · Fed Chair Warsh speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · GC · ES/NQ

Consensus: TradingEconomics. The full 08:30 and 10:00 list was checked against a second calendar (Investrade), and both carry the same five 08:30 releases.

The 08:30 slot is the heaviest of the week, and two of its releases matter most. Core PPI at 0.3% expected would follow two straight 0.3% core CPI prints. A 0.4% or higher would undo the overnight bond rally quickly. The retail sales control group, expected at 0.3% after 1.4%, is the growth test. A soft number would support the overnight move, which assumes the AI selloff slows the economy, and a strong one would back the hike case. The outcome that tests the overnight bid is hot PPI with strong retail sales: it is the combination that would push yields back up, and with them the dollar, and against gold. Earnings out before the open include PNC, U.S. Bancorp, BNY, Schwab and Prologis. PNC reported adjusted EPS of $5.09 (GAAP $4.97) on $6.6B of revenue (SEC 8-K). Warsh at 23:30 is after the close, but it is his first scheduled appearance since the CPI print.

Index Movers

Ranked by likely index contribution. Wednesday closes and pre-market moves as of 07:37 ET. Several large names had not traded pre-market at that time.

• NVDA −1.55% pre-market, after −3.16% Wednesday. It is the largest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weight, and on its own it explains a large part of NQ's discount to ES. AVGO −3.10%, META −3.27% and MSFT −1.80% on Wednesday add to the same drag. AMZN is −1.76% pre-market after −1.74%.
• ORCL −8.83% Wednesday. It was the session's largest megacap loss, on the same AI-credit worries that hit CoreWeave. It is in the S&P 500 but not the Nasdaq-100, so it hits ES, not NQ.
• MU −3.91% pre-market, after −4.08% Wednesday. This is its fourth straight down session, and the Kospi rout extends it. MU is a large Nasdaq-100 weight and a direct NQ drag.
• UNH +4.73% and AMGN +3.21% Wednesday. These are high-priced Dow members, and the Dow is price-weighted. Together with JNJ +2.13%, they are why YM finished almost flat on a −2% Nasdaq day. LLY is +1.76% pre-market after +3.62%, so the health-care rotation is still running into the open, and it is the largest S&P 500 support this morning.
• CAT −2.28% pre-market, after −3.08% Wednesday. It is one of the Dow's highest-priced members, so it is the largest YM drag among names trading pre-market, and it shows that the AI-power trade (CAT, GE Vernova, Eaton) is being sold with the chip trade. GS −1.48% on Wednesday was the other heavy Dow drag.
• CRWV −2.43% pre-market, after −15.46% Wednesday. CoreWeave is not an index heavyweight. It is here as the catalyst, because its credit is what Asian coverage cited overnight.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Wednesday's calls. We asked whether gold would rally on a hot CPI print, which would show its selling had nothing to do with rates. It did not. CPI came in hot, and gold fell 1.66% with the dollar up. Overnight it has rallied 1.71% with yields down, so it is behaving as a rates instrument again. We asked whether the bank selling would become a sector trend. It did: BAC closed −4.76%, and financials were sold across the session. We asked whether WTI would hold near the top of its range into the API release. It settled +1.01%, about half its overnight gain, and API then reported an 11.1M barrel draw.
• Whether NQ's discount survives the cash open. On Tuesday a similar YM-over-NQ split reversed by the close. Today's has an extra source of pressure, from credit, that Tuesday's did not.
• Whether the bond rally survives 08:30. The 10-year's 9bp fall is a haven move. Hot core PPI with a strong control group is the combination that reverses it, and gold and the euro would likely follow it back.
• Whether AUD keeps falling against a weaker dollar. While it does, the overnight move is risk-off. If it turns, the overnight move is only about rates.
• Whether EIA at 12:00 confirms API's draw. WTI has outrun Brent for three sessions on the expectation that US stocks are tightening.

The Bottom Line

Wednesday's hot core CPI set off two moves, and the overnight session has shown which one the market believes. The rate-hike trade of Wednesday morning, with a stronger dollar, higher front-end yields and weaker gold, has been mostly undone in Asian trading. In its place is a haven trade in long bonds and gold, driven by an AI selloff that has spread from stocks into credit and from New York to Seoul. Today's 08:30 cluster, with PPI and retail sales at its centre, decides which of the two the cash session trades. That makes the dollar and gold as important to watch as NQ.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._