Natural Gas +64 Bcf vs +64 Est — Fourth Week Below Normal, Salt Draws a Third Week

Fundamentals · 2026-10-01

Working gas in storage rose 64 Bcf in the week to 25 September against a 64 Bcf consensus, after +53 the week before, unrevised. That is in line with the survey but 16 Bcf below the five-year average build of +80, the fourth straight week under the seasonal norm, and 8 Bcf above the year-ago +56. Total stocks 3,415 Bcf: 138 Bcf (-3.9%) below last year, a deficit that narrowed for the first time in weeks, and 79 Bcf (+2.4%) above the five-year average, a surplus down from 95. South Central added 7 Bcf against a normal ~15, and its salt caverns drew 4 Bcf for a third straight week, to 213 Bcf, 27.3% below a year ago and 15.5% below their five-year average. East (+25) and Midwest (+25) did the building. Standard error on the net change 0.7 Bcf. Next release 8 October.

What It Changes

• Nothing against consensus. 64 against 64 is a zero surprise, and the front month treated it that way.
• Against the seasonal norm it is a fourth straight shortfall, of 16 Bcf after 12, 29 and 23. The five-year surplus is down to 79 Bcf, from 118 two weeks ago.
• But the year-ago comparison turned. This week's 64 beat last year's 56, so the deficit to last year narrowed by 8 Bcf after widening for weeks. The two benchmarks are now pointing in different directions.
• Salt is still the number. South Central salt drew for a third week while its five-year average was building, and it now sits 15.5% below normal, from 12.5% a week ago and 8.3% the week before.

Impact

• Natural Gas (NG) — Mixed, lean bullish — an exact match to consensus gives the front month nothing to trade on the day, while the shortfall against the five-year build and the salt draw keep the slower-refill picture intact.
• The front month (TradingView NG1!, delayed) was $2.996 going into 10:30 ET, traded $2.984-$3.013 in the release bar on the session's heaviest five-minute volume, and closed that bar back at $2.996. It was $2.983 by about 11:05.
• The level is still a cushion. At 3,415 Bcf stocks are 79 Bcf above the five-year average and EIA places them "within the five-year historical range". The tightening is in the trajectory and in salt, not in the total.
• End-of-season arithmetic. Five weeks of injection remain to 30 October. At this week's 64 Bcf pace stocks end near 3,735 Bcf; at the three-week average of about 54 Bcf, near 3,685. Last week's equivalent at 53 Bcf was about 3,670 over six weeks.
• USD — Neutral — gas storage has no dollar transmission, and today's dollar is trading ISM's prices print.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Neutral — the exposure runs through utilities and gas-intensive industry, not the index.

Inside The Number

Working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 rose 64 Bcf in the week ending Friday 25 September, taking total stocks to 3,415 Bcf. Consensus was +64 Bcf (Trading Economics and The Open), and the prior week's +53 Bcf was unrevised: last week's 3,351 is this week's starting point. EIA's standard error on the national net change is 0.7 Bcf, so the print is precise; it simply matched.

The seasonal comparison is where the information is. EIA's five-year average stock moved from 3,256 Bcf to 3,336 Bcf between the two report dates, which puts the five-year average build for this week at +80 Bcf. Year-ago stocks moved from 3,497 to 3,553, a +56 Bcf build. This week's 64 is 16 Bcf below the five-year norm and 8 above last year. The run of shortfalls against the five-year build is now 12, 29, 23 and 16 Bcf over four weeks. The gap is narrowing, but it has not closed.

The two level comparisons moved in opposite directions for the first time in this run. Stocks are 79 Bcf above the five-year average (3,336 Bcf), a 2.4% surplus that narrowed by 16 from 95. They are 138 Bcf below a year ago (3,553 Bcf), a 3.9% deficit that narrowed by 8 from 146. Last week both moved the tighter way. This week the year-ago comparison eased because last year's build for this week was unusually small.

The regional split shows where the shortfall is. EIA publishes each region's year-ago and five-year stock in Bcf, so differencing them against last week's report gives each region's normal build for this week:

• East built 25 Bcf against a five-year normal of 28 and a year-ago 25.
• Midwest built 25 against 29, year-ago 27.
• Mountain built 4 against 5, and Pacific 3 against 5.
• South Central built 7 against 15, a shortfall of 8 Bcf, and inside it salt drew 4 against a normal injection of 4, a gap of 8 Bcf. Nonsalt built 9 against 11.

The four northern and western regions were about 10 Bcf short of normal combined, more than last week's 7. South Central was 8 short, half of last week's 16. So the shortfall is spreading out more evenly than it was, but salt alone still accounts for the whole of South Central's gap.

South Central salt has drawn three weeks in a row in injection season. It fell 5 Bcf, then 5, now 4, to 213 Bcf. It is 27.3% below a year ago (293 Bcf) and 15.5% below its five-year average (252 Bcf). Two weeks ago those gaps were 24.0% and 8.3%. The year-ago salt stock also fell this week, by 5 Bcf, which is why the year-ago gap barely moved while the five-year gap widened by 3 points. The standard error on the salt net change is 0.3 Bcf, so the draw is measured, not noise.

Why salt matters more than its size. Salt caverns can be filled and emptied several times a season, which makes them the system's quick-response capacity for cold snaps and demand spikes; nonsalt reservoirs hold more and cycle slowly. A salt position 15.5% below normal and still falling at the end of September means the national total overstates how much gas can be delivered quickly when winter demand arrives. EIA reports storage, not end use, so the release does not say why salt is drawing. South Central sits beside the Gulf Coast LNG export terminals, and the previous two briefs put the likely pull there.

The rest of the country is comfortable against its own history. East holds 840 Bcf, 4.6% above its five-year average; Midwest 984 Bcf, 2.9% above; Mountain 248 Bcf, 6.4% above; Pacific 295 Bcf, 8.9% above. East and Midwest are also above last year; Mountain and Pacific are below it. South Central, at 1,048 Bcf, is the only region below its five-year average, at -2.4% (from -1.7%), and it holds about 31% of all working gas.

The Internals

The headline against every benchmark:

Comparison · Value · Gap · Read

This week's build · +64 Bcf · n/a · The print

Consensus · +64 Bcf · 0 Bcf · In line

Prior week · +53 Bcf · +11 Bcf · Larger build, prior unrevised

Five-year average build, this week · +80 Bcf · -16 Bcf · Fourth straight week below normal

Same week a year ago · +56 Bcf · +8 Bcf · Above last year

Standard error on the net change · 0.7 Bcf · n/a · A precise print

The shortfall against the five-year build, four weeks:

Week ending · Build · Five-year average build · Shortfall

4 September · +40 Bcf · About +52 Bcf · About 12 Bcf

11 September · +44 Bcf · +73 Bcf · 29 Bcf

18 September · +53 Bcf · +76 Bcf · 23 Bcf

25 September · +64 Bcf · +80 Bcf · 16 Bcf

Stock levels:

Measure · 25 September · 18 September · Change

Total working gas · 3,415 Bcf · 3,351 Bcf · +64

Year-ago stocks · 3,553 Bcf · 3,497 Bcf · +56

Deficit to last year · -138 Bcf, -3.9% · -146 Bcf, -4.2% · Narrowed 8

Five-year average stocks · 3,336 Bcf · 3,256 Bcf · +80

Surplus to five-year average · +79 Bcf, +2.4% · +95 Bcf, +2.9% · Narrowed 16

Regional detail, Bcf:

Region · 25 Sep · 18 Sep · Net · Year ago · vs year ago · Five-year average · vs five-year

East · 840 · 815 · +25 · 828 · +1.4% · 803 · +4.6%

Midwest · 984 · 959 · +25 · 968 · +1.7% · 956 · +2.9%

Mountain · 248 · 244 · +4 · 269 · -7.8% · 233 · +6.4%

Pacific · 295 · 292 · +3 · 302 · -2.3% · 271 · +8.9%

South Central · 1,048 · 1,041 · +7 · 1,187 · -11.7% · 1,074 · -2.4%

South Central salt · 213 · 217 · -4 · 293 · -27.3% · 252 · -15.5%

South Central nonsalt · 834 · 825 · +9 · 893 · -6.6% · 822 · +1.5%

Total Lower 48 · 3,415 · 3,351 · +64 · 3,553 · -3.9% · 3,336 · +2.4%

This week's build against the normal build, by region, derived from EIA's published year-ago and five-year stocks:

Region · Actual build · Five-year build · Gap · Year-ago build

East · +25 · +28 · -3 · +25

Midwest · +25 · +29 · -4 · +27

Mountain · +4 · +5 · -1 · +4

Pacific · +3 · +5 · -2 · +2

South Central · +7 · +15 · -8 · -1

South Central salt · -4 · +4 · -8 · -5

South Central nonsalt · +9 · +11 · -2 · +5

Total Lower 48 · +64 · +80 · -16 · +56

South Central salt, three weeks:

Week ending · Stock · Net · vs year ago · vs five-year

11 September · 222 Bcf · -5 · -24.0% · -8.3%

18 September · 217 Bcf · -5 · -27.2% · -12.5%

25 September · 213 Bcf · -4 · -27.3% · -15.5%

Where the injection season ends, on flat paces over the five remaining weeks to 30 October:

Weekly pace · Basis · End-October stocks

+64 Bcf · This week · About 3,735 Bcf

+54 Bcf · Three-week average · About 3,685 Bcf

+80 Bcf · This week's five-year build · About 3,815 Bcf

Sampling variability, from the release:

Region · Standard error on net change · Coefficient of variation on stocks

East · 0.3 Bcf · 0.6%

Midwest · 0.4 Bcf · 0.9%

Mountain · 0.4 Bcf · 3.1%

Pacific · 0.0 Bcf · 0.0%

South Central · 0.3 Bcf · 0.8%

South Central salt · 0.3 Bcf · 1.3%

South Central nonsalt · 0.2 Bcf · 1.0%

Total Lower 48 · 0.7 Bcf · 0.4%

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open had it exactly. The Open tabled EIA natural gas storage at a +64 Bcf consensus against a +53 Bcf prior; it printed +64, and the prior was unrevised.

What This Sets Up

• Next storage report: Thursday 8 October, covering the week to 2 October.
• Whether the shortfall to the five-year build keeps shrinking. It has gone 29, 23, 16; a week at or above normal would end the run and stabilize the surplus near 80 Bcf.
• Whether salt turns. A fourth weekly draw in what is normally injection season would take salt further below its five-year average heading into October; an injection would be the first sign the pull on Gulf Coast storage is easing.

What Is This?

• What it is: The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released every Thursday at 10:30 ET. It estimates working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 at the end of the previous Friday, from a sample of storage operators (Form EIA-912), broken into five regions, with South Central split into salt caverns and nonsalt reservoirs. The headline is the weekly net change in billion cubic feet.
• Why it matters: Storage is the balancing item between supply and demand, and the late-summer and autumn injection season decides how much gas the country carries into winter. Right now the national total looks comfortable while South Central salt, the fast-cycling storage beside the Gulf Coast export terminals, has been drawing in injection season.
• How to read it: Compare the build with the five-year average build for the same week, not just with consensus; a print can match the survey and still be well short of normal. The level against the five-year average and against last year says how comfortable the cushion is. Salt and nonsalt behave differently: salt cycles quickly and matters most in a cold snap. The standard error on the net change is usually under 1 Bcf, so the weekly number is precise.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._