Calendar › Morning Rundown › 2026-11-09

Nvidia's CEO probe gap fills. Oil drops 3%

Rundown · 2026-11-09

The weekend gap is already gone. Nvidia's board said Sunday it will run an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman US officials reportedly believe was working for Chinese intelligence, and futures opened lower at 18:00: ES −0.42%, NQ −0.76%, RTY −0.32% against Friday's settles, with YM flat. All three gaps filled overnight. As of about 06:30 ET, YM is +1.04%, RTY +1.40%, ES +0.67% and NQ +0.47%, all near their overnight highs, while Nvidia is −4.9% pre-market. The rest of the tape is moving the other way from Friday too: WTI −2.91% after President Trump called new strikes on Iran "highly unlikely", gold +1.02%, DXY −0.46%. Friday's hot payrolls left the 2-year at 4.51% (+5bp) and the 10-year at 4.86% (+2bp) (US Treasury), with December hike odds around 77-80%. There is no 08:30 release today; Tuesday's CPI is the week's fulcrum.

Overnight

• The gap, against Friday's settles. Globex reopened at 18:00 Sunday with ES −0.42%, NQ −0.76%, RTY −0.32% and YM +0.01%. The catalyst was Nvidia, the largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100: its board's statement and Huang's letter to staff landed Sunday, 8 November. All three gaps were filled before Asia closed.
• Where they sit now, about 06:30 ET: YM +1.04% · RTY +1.40% · ES +0.67% · NQ +0.47%. NQ is the laggard because Nvidia is, and YM leads because a share-price-weighted index barely feels Nvidia.
• Ranges since the 18:00 reopen, as reference only. ES has ranged 1.29% (0.52% below to 0.77% above its settle) and sits near the high. NQ has ranged 2.10% (1.23% below to 0.86% above) and sits in the upper fifth. YM has ranged 1.50% (0.35% below to 1.15% above) and RTY 2.10% (0.53% below to 1.58% above); both sit near their highs. Every index has traded on both sides of Friday's settle overnight.
• Asia bought the AI names back. In Tokyo the Nikkei rose 2.33% after Friday's 5.96% fall. Taiwan's benchmark jumped about 4.9%, its biggest gain since July. The Kospi's close is reported both up and down across sources, so we are not printing a number. Hang Seng −0.13%, Shanghai +0.32%. China's October producer prices rose 5.7% y/y against 5.3% expected, the fastest since 2022, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%.
• Europe is higher across the board. STOXX 600 +0.65%, DAX +0.63%, FTSE 100 +0.59%. Lower oil is helping, and nothing domestic is driving the morning.
• What broke while the US was closed. The Nvidia story is not new; the New York Times first reported the intelligence link on 29 October. What is new is that Huang has admitted the relationship in writing and the board has opened a formal investigation led by independent directors and outside counsel. The board says it has no reason to believe company secrets or national security were compromised, and Huang stays CEO. On Iran, Trump told CNBC a return to full-scale war was "highly unlikely" if talks progress; Secretary of State Rubio called Iran's demands unacceptable. Trump meets Qatar's prime minister, the talks' mediator, at the White House at 12:00 ET.

The Dollar & FX

• DXY −0.46%, near the bottom of its overnight range. Friday's payroll beat put December hike odds near 77% and lifted the 2-year 5bp, yet the dollar is lower this morning. The reason is risk, not rates: last Friday DXY rose as Asia sold off, and today it is falling as Asia buys back in. Treasury yields are little changed overnight (10-year about −1bp), so the rate differential has not moved against the dollar.
• 6A: AUD/USD +0.57%, the pair carrying the move. The Aussie is the cleanest Asian-risk proxy, and it is trading as one: last Friday it led the dollar higher with a −0.78% fall, today it leads the dollar lower. China's hot producer-price print adds a little support. It sits at its overnight high.
• 6B: GBP/USD +0.53% and 6E: EUR/USD +0.48%, both at their overnight highs. Neither has a domestic driver this morning; they are the mirror of DXY.
• 6J: USD/JPY −0.36%. A firmer yen into a risk-on morning, the reverse of how it traded last week. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed overnight that it made a record intervention on 30 July, a reminder that Tokyo has acted this year and can again.
• 6C: USD/CAD −0.30%, a firmer loonie even with WTI down nearly 3%. The broad dollar move is beating oil for CAD, as it did in reverse last Friday.
• Fed pricing. CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at about 77% after payrolls on Friday; an Asia-session wire read had it near 80% this morning, and Kalshi and Polymarket were reported in the high 70s. We give the range rather than one tracker's figure. The FOMC decides on 9 December. Four Fed speakers are on today's calendar.

Energy & Metals

• CL: +0.3% Friday, −2.91% overnight. WTI ended its biggest weekly drop since 2022 (front month about −13%) with a small gain. Overnight it has ranged a wide 4.27% (3.62% below to 0.65% above its settle) and sits in the lower fifth. Brent: +0.03% Friday, −3.38% overnight.
• The mechanism. The war premium is still leaking out. Trump's "highly unlikely" comment knocked crude lower in Asia; Rubio's harder line pulled it back briefly; the selling resumed into Europe. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are restoring shipments to prewar levels and Riyadh has cut its Asian prices. Against that, the weekend had real supply headlines: a suspected Iranian drone strike halted Iraq's Khor Mor gas field, and the Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities in Riyadh. The market is trading the diplomacy and fading the attacks. The noon Qatar meeting is the live catalyst.
• GC: −0.94% Friday, +1.02% overnight. Overnight it has ranged 1.98% (0.30% below to 1.68% above its settle) and sits in the upper third, back above $4,100. Goldman cut its gold forecasts overnight and gold rose anyway.
• Why gold is bid. Friday's drop was a rates trade: payrolls lifted the 2-year 5bp and hike odds rose. This morning both of gold's usual headwinds have stepped back at once, with the dollar down 0.46% and yields flat to lower, and a governance shock at the largest US company adds a modest haven bid.

Where We Left Off

• Friday's RTH: Nasdaq-100 +1.35%, Nasdaq Composite +1.09%, Russell 2000 +0.89%, S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow −0.46% (AP carries the four main indices; cross-checked against a second source). The Dow Transports fell 1.56%. For the week the S&P 500 lost 2.7%, its worst week since April 2025.
• Treasury yields Friday: 2-year 4.51% (+5bp), 10-year 4.86% (+2bp), 30-year 5.26% (+1bp) (US Treasury, 6 November). Payrolls took back 5bp of Thursday's 12bp fall in the 2-year.
• What happened. Chips bounced hard after their worst day since 2020: AMD +11.04%, Micron +5.12%, Nvidia +2.78%. The Dow went the other way because payrolls hit the rate-sensitive names: among its high-priced members, Home Depot −1.85%, Sherwin-Williams −1.41%, Microsoft −0.99% and JPMorgan −0.84%. The VIX fell 7%.
• What carries over: whether the AI trade can take a hit to its leader. Friday's chip bounce was a relief rally with no new information. This morning is the first real test: the largest stock in the index has a governance problem, and so far the rest of the market is shrugging it off. The open tells you whether that holds once cash volume arrives.

Yesterday's Data

• Payrolls +165K vs 65K expected: wages +0.4% and unemployment 4.1% rebuilt the December hike case.
• UMich sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 expected: year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3%, but interviews closed before the election.

On The Calendar Today

Time ET · Event · Consensus · Prior · Hits

08:40 · Fed's Bowman speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

10:00 · Fed's Goolsbee speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

10:00 · Wholesale inventories m/m, September · 0.6% · 0.5% · USD

10:00 · Conference Board employment trends, October · n/a · 107.56 · USD

11:00 · NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, October · n/a · 3.9% · USD · GC · rates

11:30 · 3- and 6-month bill auctions · n/a · n/a · rates

12:00 · Trump meets Qatar's prime minister · n/a · n/a · CL · GC

12:15 · Fed's Barkin speaks · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

12:15 · Fed's Bowman speaks again · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

13:00 · 3-year note auction · n/a · 4.932% · rates · USD

15:00 · Fed's Goolsbee speaks again · n/a · n/a · USD · rates

Consensus: TradingEconomics. Release times from TradingEconomics, cross-checked against a second weekly calendar. There is no 08:30 release today; we checked the full list, and Monday has no fixed weekly print. This week: October CPI Tuesday 08:30 with the 10-year auction at 13:00; Wednesday is Veterans Day, with the bond market closed and stocks open; jobless claims, EIA crude (moved to Thursday 12:00 by the holiday) and the 30-year auction Thursday; PPI Friday.

No print sets today's range; the Fed speakers and the noon Qatar meeting are what can move it. Bowman at 08:40 is the first Fed voice since payrolls priced a December hike near 80%; anything short of endorsing that pricing would test the 2-year first and gold with it. The NY Fed's inflation-expectations survey at 11:00 is the only data with a real link to the Fed's case. Tuesday's CPI is the week's fulcrum, and today is mostly a structure day in front of it.

Index Movers

Ranked by index contribution. Friday's moves close to close; pre-market as of about 06:45 ET, on thin volume.

• NVDA +2.78% Friday, −4.90% pre-market. The largest weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, and the reason NQ trails. Its board opened an independent investigation Sunday into Huang's relationship with a former Megaspeed executive; the board says it still backs him and he stays CEO. Some analysts are already asking who would succeed him, which is the risk the stock is pricing.
• MSFT −0.99% Friday, +1.46% pre-market; AAPL −0.52% Friday, +0.60% pre-market. Two of the three biggest S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 weights and both Dow members. They are offsetting most of Nvidia's drag on ES and NQ.
• GS −0.36% Friday, +1.75% pre-market. The highest-priced Dow member, so its move counts for more in YM than any other stock's. With Caterpillar (+0.90% Friday, +1.19% pre-market), it is a large part of why YM leads this morning.
• AMD +11.04% Friday, +3.02% pre-market; MU +5.12% Friday, −1.07% pre-market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 chip names that led Friday's bounce are split this morning; AMD is picking up money rotating out of Nvidia.
• HD −1.85% Friday. A high-priced Dow member that fell on payrolls as rate-hike odds rose. If yields climb after Bowman, the rate-sensitive Dow names are where it shows first.

What Would Change The Read

• Scoring Friday's calls. We asked whether the bond rally would survive payrolls: it did not, as the 2-year rose 5bp. We asked whether the chip bounce would outlast the open: it did, with the Nasdaq-100 +1.35%. We asked whether YM would stay the laggard: it did, at −0.46%.
• Whether the market keeps separating Nvidia from the AI trade. Right now Nvidia is −4.9% and NQ is still green. If other AI names start trading with Nvidia after 09:30, the governance story has become an index story.
• Whether a Fed speaker pushes back on December. Hike odds near 80% rest on one payroll report. A speaker who leans against that would move the 2-year, the dollar and gold before it moves stocks.
• Whether the noon Qatar meeting produces anything concrete. Crude has fallen on talk, not on a deal. A concrete step would extend the oil drop; a breakdown would reverse a 4.27% overnight range very quickly.
• Whether the dollar's slide is risk or rates. If DXY keeps falling while yields hold, it is the risk mood reversing Friday's bid, and AUD/USD is where that shows first.

The Bottom Line

The weekend delivered the kind of news that usually gaps an index and keeps it gapped: a governance investigation at the largest company in the market. Futures did gap, and then bought it back within hours, with Asia and Europe joining in. The only real casualty so far is Nvidia itself, which is why the price-weighted Dow leads and the Nasdaq trails. Oil is still giving back its war premium on diplomacy rather than a deal, and gold has recovered Friday's payroll loss. With no data before 10:00 and CPI tomorrow, the overnight ranges are the reference and the Fed speakers are the risk.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._