Calendar › Employment Situation (non-farm payrolls) › 2026-11-06
Nonfarm Payrolls +165K vs 65K Est — Wages +0.4%, Unemployment 4.1%, 84K Revised Up
Fundamentals · 2026-11-06
Total nonfarm payrolls +165,000 in October (vs 65,000 est, prior +60,000 revised from +29,000); August revised to +186,000 from +133,000, so August and September combined are 84,000 higher; private +159,000, government +6,000; unemployment 4.1% vs 4.2% est (unrounded 4.14% from 4.18%); average hourly earnings +0.4% to $38.00 vs 0.3% est, 3.1% y/y vs 2.9% est, September revised up to +0.3% and 3.2%; workweek 34.4 hours; professional and business services +70,000, health care +42,000, transportation and warehousing +25,000, manufacturing +19,000; private diffusion index 57.6 from 54.2; three-month average +137,000 against a 12-month average of 48,000; U-6 up to 7.9% from 7.6% as part-time for economic reasons jumped 339,000; next release Friday 4 December.
What It Changes
- A beat on all three numbers the market trades, and the revisions point the same way. Payrolls beat by 100,000, unemployment rounded down to 4.1%, and wages rose 0.4% against 0.3%. Then 84,000 jobs were added back to August and September, reversing a month ago's story of downward revisions.
- For the rate path, it puts the labour market back into the argument for a December hike. The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% on 28 October with two members dissenting for a hike, and Thursday's equity rout had pulled the 2-year down 12bp to 4.46% (US Treasury). Today's print gives the hawks the strongest wage month of 2026 to point at.
- The one soft spot is underemployment. U-6 rose 0.3 percentage points to 7.9%, its biggest one-month rise of 2026, because 356,000 more people were working part time due to slack business conditions. Firms are hiring more people but cutting hours for some of the people they already have.
- The market barely moved. In the first five minutes after 08:30, ES was −0.14%, gold −0.30% and DXY +0.11%. That is a muted reaction to a 100,000 beat, after a session in which the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.36%.
Impact
- USD — Slight bullish — all three headline numbers came in on the hawkish side, which supports the US half of the rate-differential argument the dollar trades on.
- DXY was +0.11% in the first five minutes and +0.06% from the pre-release level by 10:30 ET. Most of the day's dollar gain (+0.5% against Thursday's settle) came before the release, on Asia's risk-off session.
- 6E was −0.10% in the first five minutes, and 2-year note futures −0.03%, so the front end gave back very little of Thursday's rally.
- Wages at 3.1% y/y are back above where they were a month ago (3.0% first print, now revised to 3.2%), which removes the softest part of the September report.
- US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bearish — strong hiring is good for earnings, but in a hiking cycle stronger jobs and wages raise the odds of another hike, and today that matters more.
- The first reaction was negative across the board: ES −0.14%, NQ −0.27%, RTY −0.27%, YM −0.16% in the first five minutes.
- The read is weakest for NQ and RTY. NQ is the long-duration index and RTY carries the most floating-rate debt, so both are most exposed to a higher front end.
- YM is the relative beneficiary. Cyclical earnings rely on hiring and hours, and aggregate weekly payrolls rose 0.5%. By 10:30 ET YM was +0.68% from its pre-release level against ES +0.40% and NQ −0.15%, though that window also includes the 10:00 data.
- Gold (GC) — Slight bearish — a firmer labour print raises the expected policy path, which raises real yields and supports the dollar.
- Gold was −0.30% in the first five minutes and −0.26% from the pre-release level by 10:30 ET, adding to an overnight loss.
- Thursday's gold gain came from the 2-year falling 12bp. This print argues against more of that, but the bond move so far is small.
Inside The Number
Total nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October against a consensus of 65,000 (TradingEconomics). That is the largest monthly gain since March (214,000) and well above the 48,000 average of the prior 12 months. It also clears BLS's own 122,000 threshold for a statistically significant monthly change, which September's first estimate of 29,000 did not.
The revisions turn last month's report around. A month ago, 60,000 jobs were removed from July and August. This month, 84,000 went back. August is now +186,000 (from +133,000) and September +60,000 (from +29,000). The three-month average is 137,000, the highest since the three months to May, and private 126,000.
Hiring spread out. Professional and business services added 70,000, against an average of 15,000 over the prior 12 months: professional, scientific and technical services +33,000, administrative and support +28,000, management of companies +9,000. Temporary help rose 18,600 after falling 5,600 in September. Temporary staffing is usually the first thing firms cut, and the first thing they add back. Health care added 42,000 (hospitals +16,000, home health care +11,000, outpatient care +5,000). Transportation and warehousing added 25,000, mostly couriers and messengers (+17,000). Manufacturing added 19,000, all of it in durable goods (+25,000), with nondurables −6,000. Health care and social assistance did about a third of private hiring, down from half in September's first estimate. The private diffusion index rose to 57.6 and manufacturing to 62.5 from 51.4: more industries added jobs than cut them.
Wages are the hawkish surprise. Average hourly earnings rose 14 cents, or 0.37%, to $38.00, the strongest month of 2026, and 3.1% over 12 months. September was revised from 0.1% to 0.3% and its $37.81 level to $37.86. Production and nonsupervisory pay rose 0.4% to $32.75. With hours flat at 34.4 and more people at work, aggregate weekly payrolls rose 0.5%, against 0.3% in September. Yesterday's productivity report had unit labour costs at −0.7% for the third quarter. This is the first month of the fourth quarter, and it runs the other way.
The household survey is firm on the headline and soft underneath. Unemployment fell 41,000 to 7.07 million and the rate rounded down from 4.18% to 4.14%. Employment rose 463,000 and the labour force 421,000, lifting participation to 61.9% and the employment-population ratio to 59.3%. But part time for economic reasons rose 339,000 to 4.84 million, and the slack-work component rose 356,000. That pushed U-6 from 7.6% to 7.9%, back to its June and July level. Job losers fell 34,000 and people on temporary layoff fell 79,000, so this is not a layoff story. It is hours being cut for people who still have jobs.
ADP undercounted private hiring this month. On Wednesday ADP had private payrolls at +86,000; BLS has +159,000. In September the miss went the other way: ADP +90,000 against a BLS first estimate of +46,000. The gap changes sign from month to month, so it is not a reliable guide to the BLS print. This week's other labour data had already leaned firm: JOLTS openings 7.52 million, claims 189,000, tying the 2026 low.
The Internals
The headline, consensus and revisions:
Measure · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Aug 2026 · Consensus
Total nonfarm payrolls · +165,000 · +60,000, from +29,000 · +186,000, from +133,000 · +65,000
Private payrolls · +159,000 · +78,000, from +46,000 · +142,000 · n/a
Government payrolls · +6,000 · -18,000, from -17,000 · +44,000 · n/a
Manufacturing payrolls · +19,000 · +13,000, from +9,000 · +21,000 · n/a
Unemployment rate · 4.1% · 4.2% · 4.1% · 4.2%
Unemployment rate, unrounded · 4.14% · 4.18% · 4.14% · n/a
Average hourly earnings, m/m · +0.4% · +0.3%, from +0.1% · +0.3% · +0.3%
Average hourly earnings, y/y · +3.1% · +3.2%, from +3.0% · n/a · +2.9%
Average weekly hours · 34.4 · 34.4 · 34.4 · n/a
Unrounded unemployment rates are computed from the household survey levels. Consensus from TradingEconomics.
Trend and significance:
Measure · Reading
October payroll gain · +165,000
Three-month average, total nonfarm · +137,000
Three-month average, total private · +126,000
Average monthly gain, prior 12 months · +48,000
August and September combined revision · +84,000
BLS threshold for a significant monthly change · About 122,000
Does this print clear that threshold · Yes
Largest monthly gain since · March 2026 (+214,000)
Employment change by industry, over the month, in thousands:
Industry · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Aug 2026
Total nonfarm · 165 · 60 · 186
Total private · 159 · 78 · 142
Goods-producing · 15 · 27 · 40
Mining and logging · -1 · -2 · 2
Construction · -3 · 16 · 17
Manufacturing · 19 · 13 · 21
Durable goods · 25 · 9 · 18
Motor vehicles and parts · 4.1 · -0.2 · -6.6
Nondurable goods · -6 · 4 · 3
Private service-providing · 144 · 51 · 102
Wholesale trade · -9.1 · 8.1 · 4.5
Retail trade · 6.0 · 12.7 · 3.4
Transportation and warehousing · 24.8 · 7.4 · 6.1
Utilities · 0.1 · 0.4 · 2.1
Information · -1 · -11 · -21
Financial activities · 7 · -14 · -6
Professional and business services · 70 · 8 · 30
Temporary help services · 18.6 · -5.6 · 15.5
Private education and health services · 53 · 21 · 37
Health care and social assistance · 55.1 · 19.8 · 29.2
Leisure and hospitality · -13 · 13 · 42
Other services · 6 · 5 · 4
Government · 6 · -18 · 44
Hours and earnings, all private employees:
Measure · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Aug 2026 · Oct 2025
Average hourly earnings · $38.00 · $37.86 · $37.76 · $36.85
Average weekly hours · 34.4 · 34.4 · 34.4 · 34.2
Average weekly earnings · $1,307.20 · $1,302.38 · $1,298.94 · $1,260.27
Aggregate weekly hours, m/m · +0.1% · +0.1% · +0.4% · 0.0%
Aggregate weekly payrolls, m/m · +0.5% · +0.3% · +0.7% · +0.4%
Private diffusion index · 57.6 · 54.2 · 59.4 · 48.6
Manufacturing diffusion index · 62.5 · 51.4 · 68.8 · 45.8
Household survey, seasonally adjusted:
Measure · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Aug 2026 · Change
Labour force · 170.68M · 170.26M · 169.78M · +421,000
Employed · 163.62M · 163.15M · 162.75M · +463,000
Unemployed · 7.07M · 7.11M · 7.03M · -41,000
Participation rate · 61.9% · 61.8% · 61.6% · +0.1pp
Employment-population ratio · 59.3% · 59.2% · 59.1% · +0.1pp
U-6 underemployment rate · 7.9% · 7.6% · 7.7% · +0.3pp
Part time for economic reasons · 4.84M · 4.50M · 4.39M · +339,000
Long-term unemployed, 27 weeks plus · 1.96M · 1.94M · 1.93M · +19,000
Long-term share of unemployed · 27.6% · n/a · n/a · n/a
Who Was Hired, Who Was Not
Unemployment by group, October against September:
Group · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Change
Adult men · 3.9% · 3.9% · 0.0pp
Adult women · 3.6% · 3.6% · 0.0pp
Teenagers · 13.9% · 14.5% · -0.6pp
White · 3.7% · 3.6% · +0.1pp
Black · 6.6% · 7.0% · -0.4pp
Asian · 2.8% · 2.9% · -0.1pp
Hispanic · 4.7% · 4.7% · 0.0pp
Less than a high school diploma · 5.8% · 4.3% · +1.5pp
High school graduates, no college · 3.8% · 4.4% · -0.6pp
Some college or associate degree · 3.9% · 3.6% · +0.3pp
Bachelor's degree and higher · 2.6% · 2.5% · +0.1pp
The 1.5-point jump for workers without a high-school diploma is the largest move in the table. It comes from a small sample and swings widely from month to month, so it is a number to watch rather than a finding.
Why people were unemployed:
Reason · Oct 2026 · Sep 2026 · Change
Job losers and completed temporary jobs · 3.17M · 3.20M · -34,000
On temporary layoff · 766,000 · 845,000 · -79,000
Permanent job losers · 1.73M · 1.75M · -17,000
Job leavers · 766,000 · 741,000 · +25,000
Reentrants · 2.30M · 2.29M · +8,000
New entrants · 778,000 · 818,000 · -40,000
Unemployed less than 5 weeks · 2.17M · 2.10M · +72,000
Unemployed 5 to 14 weeks · 1.74M · 1.96M · -219,000
Fewer people on temporary layoff and fewer job losers overall: the household survey shows no sign of firing. Short-duration unemployment rose 72,000, the one hint of fresh job loss, while the 5-to-14-week group fell 219,000 as people found work.
Where the hours went. The average workweek held at 34.4 hours. In manufacturing it was unchanged at 40.5 and overtime rose 0.1 hour to 3.1. For production and nonsupervisory workers the workweek fell 0.1 hour to 33.8. Combined with the 356,000 jump in people working part time because business was slack, the hours data is the one place this report looks softer than the headline.
Against This Morning's Open
- The Open called 08:30 the fulcrum: "A strong payroll number, or wages back at 0.3%, argues the Fed's case was never about stocks, and would test both the bond rally and gold." It got both: payrolls +165,000 and wages +0.4%.
- The test so far is mild. Gold fell 0.30% and 2-year note futures 0.03% in the first five minutes, so neither Thursday's bond rally nor gold has broken. The Open expected the release to set the session's range more than the chip bounce; by 10:30 ET NQ was still up about 1.4% on Thursday's settle, so the chip bounce is holding its own.
What This Sets Up
- The November employment situation, Friday 4 December, lands four days before the 8-9 December FOMC, so it is the last payroll report the committee sees before deciding whether to hike.
- What would confirm this read: the three-month average holding above 100,000, wages at 0.3% or more, and revisions that leave October near 165,000 rather than cutting it the way July and August were cut a month ago.
- What would break it: October revised down sharply, or U-6 rising again as part-time-for-economic-reasons keeps climbing. That would say firms are adding heads while cutting hours, which is a softer labour market than the payroll count shows.
What Is This?
- What it is: The Employment Situation, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of the month (usually), combines two surveys. The establishment survey (Current Employment Statistics) covers about 119,000 businesses and government agencies at roughly 622,000 worksites, about 26% of all nonfarm payroll jobs, and produces payrolls, hours and earnings. The household survey (Current Population Survey) covers about 60,000 households and produces the unemployment rate, participation and the demographic detail.
- Why it matters: The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% in September and held in October with two members wanting another hike. With inflation still elevated, the labour market decides whether December brings a second hike, and wages are the part of this report that feeds most directly into inflation.
- How to read it: Payrolls are the monthly change in jobs, seasonally adjusted. BLS says a change of about 122,000 is needed to be statistically significant, and the prior two months are revised every release, so the three-month average and the revisions often matter as much as the headline. The unemployment rate comes from a much smaller survey, where a change needs to be about 650,000 people to be significant. Average hourly earnings are nominal, not adjusted for inflation. U-6 adds discouraged and marginally attached workers and people working part time who want full-time work.
Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.
_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._