Calendar › University of Michigan consumer sentiment › 2026-11-06

UMich Sentiment 51.0 vs 48.0 Est — Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Fall to 4.3%

Fundamentals · 2026-11-06

Preliminary November consumer sentiment 51.0 against a 48.0 consensus (TradingEconomics), up from October's final 48.0: +6.3% m/m, 0.0% y/y, the highest since August's 51.7. Current conditions 51.0 from 46.7 (+9.2%); expectations 50.9 from 48.8 (+4.3%). Year-ahead inflation expectations 4.3% from 4.7%, the lowest since August; long-run 3.4% from 3.5%, still above the 2024 range of 2.8%-3.2%. 57% of consumers said high prices had eroded their living standards, the most since May. Sentiment fell 5% among the largest stockholders and is still 10% below February, before the Iran conflict. Interviews ran 20 October to 2 November, before the 3 November election and before Thursday's selloff. Final November: Friday 20 November.

What It Changes

• A beat on the headline and a drop in inflation expectations, both in the direction the Fed wants. Sentiment beat by 3 points, and year-ahead expectations fell 0.4 points to 4.3%, giving back the whole of October's rise to a five-month high.
• For the rate path, it takes some pressure off the expectations argument for a December hike. October's final had both horizons at their highest since May, five days before the FOMC. This month both moved down. Long-run at 3.4% is still above anything seen in 2024, so the improvement is partial.
• The timing limits what it says. Every interview was done before the election result and before the Nasdaq-100's 6.36% fall on Thursday. The survey already found the biggest stockholders 5% gloomier, and that was before the worst week for chip stocks since 2020.
• The market barely moved. In the five minutes after 10:00, ES was −0.20%, gold −0.05% and DXY −0.01%. After payrolls at 08:30, this release did not change the session.

Impact

• USD — Slight bearish — lower inflation expectations take a little away from the case for further hikes, which is the US side of the dollar's rate-differential argument.
• DXY was −0.01% in the five minutes after 10:00 and −0.04% by 10:36 ET. Today's dollar move had already happened before the release.
• 2-year note futures were +0.01% and 10-year note futures +0.07% in the five minutes after 10:00: a small bid, consistent with lower inflation expectations, and far smaller than the 08:30 payroll move.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Mixed, lean bullish — firmer sentiment and lower inflation expectations are both good for equities, but a survey that closed before Thursday's rout does not tell the market much about how consumers feel now.
• ES was −0.20%, NQ −0.33%, YM −0.07% and RTY +0.03% in the five minutes after 10:00. That fits a continued fade in the morning's chip bounce more than a response to this release.
• The read is strongest for RTY, since domestic consumer confidence matters most for small caps. It is weakest for NQ, where the 5% drop among large stockholders points at the AI-bubble worries consumers mentioned.
• Gold (GC) — Mixed — lower inflation expectations reduce one argument for gold as an inflation hedge, but they also lower the expected rate path. The two offset.
• Gold was −0.05% in the five minutes after 10:00. Its loss today came before the release, overnight and after payrolls.

Inside The Number

Preliminary November sentiment came in at 51.0 against a consensus of 48.0 (TradingEconomics), up from October's final 48.0 and level with November 2025. It is the highest reading since August (51.7), but still 10% below February's 56.6, before the Iran conflict began.

Both halves improved, and current conditions improved more. The current conditions index rose 9.2% to 51.0 from 46.7. The expectations index rose 4.3% to 50.9 from 48.8. The survey says the gains came from modest improvements in several areas, including expected personal finances and business conditions, mostly among independents. Sentiment rose for lower- and middle-wealth consumers.

The inflation expectations drop is the most useful part of the release. Year-ahead expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7%, the lowest since August. October's 4.7% had been a five-month high and had held from preliminary to final. Long-run expectations eased to 3.4% from 3.5%. The survey notes both are still well above where they were before the conflict: year-ahead was 3.4% in February, and long-run remains above its 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%. In October the survey published a special report on the risk of long-run expectations becoming entrenched. One month's 0.1-point drop does not settle that.

The bad news is about prices and stocks. 57% of consumers spontaneously said high prices had eroded their living standards. That is the highest since May, and up from 46% in February. Sentiment fell 5% among consumers with the largest stock portfolios after what the survey called a turbulent period in stock markets, and comments showed growing worry about a possible AI bubble. The survey says cost of living still outweighs AI worries.

What the survey missed. Interviews ran from 20 October to 2 November. The midterms were on 3 November, and the chip-led selloff came on 5 November. The survey's 30 October special report found that more than two-thirds of consumers expected Democrats to win the House, and over half expected the Senate to go the same way, so the result was partly expected. The stock market move was not. The final November reading on 20 November will include interviews after both.

The Internals

Headline indexes:

Index · Nov 2026 prelim · Oct 2026 final · Nov 2025 · M/M · Y/Y

Consumer sentiment · 51.0 · 48.0 · 51.0 · +6.3% · 0.0%

Current economic conditions · 51.0 · 46.7 · 51.1 · +9.2% · -0.2%

Consumer expectations · 50.9 · 48.8 · 51.0 · +4.3% · -0.2%

Inflation expectations:

Measure · Nov 2026 prelim · Oct 2026 final · Feb 2026 · 2024 range

Year-ahead inflation expectations · 4.3% · 4.7% · 3.4% · n/a

Long-run inflation expectations · 3.4% · 3.5% · n/a · 2.8%-3.2%

Sentiment against consensus and trend:

Measure · Reading

Consensus · 48.0 (TradingEconomics)

Beat · 3.0 points

Highest since · August 2026 (51.7)

Change from February 2026 · -10% (from 56.6)

2026 low · 44.8 (May)

Monthly sentiment through 2026 (final readings, then this preliminary):

Month · Sentiment

January 2026 · 56.4

February 2026 · 56.6

March 2026 · 53.3

April 2026 · 49.8

May 2026 · 44.8

June 2026 · 49.5

July 2026 · 55.2

August 2026 · 51.7

September 2026 · 48.1

October 2026 · 48.0

November 2026, preliminary · 51.0

What The Households Said

• Cost of living leads. 57% mentioned unprompted that high prices had eroded their living standards, the highest since May and up from 46% in February.
• Stockholders turned gloomier. Sentiment fell 5% among consumers with the largest stock portfolios, after what the survey called a relatively turbulent period in stock markets.
• AI-bubble worry is new and growing, but second. Comments showed rising anxiety about a possible AI bubble. The survey says those worries were "dwarfed" by cost-of-living concerns.
• Independents drove the gains. Improvements were concentrated among independents, and sentiment rose for lower- and middle-wealth consumers.
• Most expected the election result. Before the vote, more than two-thirds expected Democrats to win the House and over half expected the same in the Senate.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open listed preliminary sentiment at 48.0 consensus against a 48.0 prior, and year-ahead inflation expectations against a 4.7% prior with no consensus. Sentiment beat by 3 points and expectations fell 0.4 points.
• The Open set the day up around 08:30 payrolls, not this release, and that held: the 10:00 moves were a fraction of the payroll reaction.

What This Sets Up

• Final November sentiment, Friday 20 November at 10:00 ET, adds interviews from after the election and after Thursday's selloff. That is where this preliminary read gets tested.
• What would confirm it: the final holding near 51 and year-ahead expectations staying at 4.3% or lower, after the stock-market drop and the election are in the sample.
• What would break it: a revision back below 48, or year-ahead expectations returning to 4.7%. The 5% drop among large stockholders is the part most likely to deepen once the selloff is in the sample.

What Is This?

• What it is: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, published twice a month: a preliminary reading mid-month or earlier, and a final at the end. It is a web-based survey of US households that asks about personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions, and produces the sentiment index along with current conditions and expectations sub-indexes. It also asks households what inflation they expect over the next year and the next five to ten years.
• Why it matters: The Fed hiked in September and held in October with two members wanting another hike. Inflation expectations are one of the things the committee watches most closely, because expectations that drift up can feed into wages and prices. A drop in expectations makes the case for further hikes a little weaker.
• How to read it: The sentiment indexes are set to 100 in 1966, so readings around 50 are historically very low. The inflation expectations are median responses, in %. The preliminary reading uses a smaller sample than the final, so revisions of a point or two are common, and the interview window matters: this one closed before the events of the past week.

Want the full explainer? Economic News Events, Explained breaks down this release and every other one we cover, in plain English.

_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._