Calendar › PPI › 2026-11-13

PPI +0.3% vs 0.4% Est — Annual Rate Still Climbs to 6.5%, Highest Since 2022

Fundamentals · 2026-11-13

PPI +0.3% m/m against 0.4% consensus (TradingEconomics); +6.5% y/y against 6.6%, the highest since November 2022; core (less foods and energy) +0.3%, in line, and 5.0% y/y, in line; the core BLS leads with, less foods, energy and trade, +0.5% for a second month, 4.9% y/y; goods +0.5% with energy −0.1% and foods +1.3%; services +0.2%, three-quarters of it transportation and warehousing +2.0% on truck freight +3.9%; trade margins −0.2%; September revised up to +1.4% from 1.3% and core to +0.8% from 0.7%; upstream, unprocessed goods −3.1% on crude petroleum −10.3%, but stage 4 intermediate demand +0.4% and 8.0% y/y, the most since September 2022.

What It Changes

• A small miss on the month, not a turn. Headline PPI rose 0.3% against 0.4% consensus (TradingEconomics) and core matched at 0.3%, but the annual rate still rose to 6.5% from 6.3%, the highest since November 2022, and only a tenth below the 6.6% forecast.
• The revisions take back most of the miss. September is now +1.4% (from 1.3%) and its core +0.8% (from 0.7%), so September and October together add up to the 1.7% the market expected on the headline, and the core runs a tenth hotter.
• The cleaner core did not slow. Less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% for a second straight month. Trade margins fell 0.2% in October, and that is what held the standard core to 0.3%.
• For the Fed, this neither adds to nor removes the December hike case. It lands three days after a hot CPI, with the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% (Fed), and it is the last PPI before the 8-9 December FOMC: November's report is not out until 15 December.

Impact

• USD — Slight bearish — a headline miss with core in line gives the front end a reason to pause after two days of rising yields, not a reason to reverse.
• First read, 08:29 to 08:33 ET: DXY −0.06%, and the 10-year yield about 2bp lower. That is the smallest move of the session's instruments.
• The dollar went into the print +0.9% over five days at about a 20-month high, as The Open reported, so a soft-ish print leaves it little to add.
• US Indices (ES / NQ / YM / RTY) — Slight bullish — the read is strongest for RTY, the contract The Open named as most exposed to the rate move.
• First read: ES +0.34%, NQ +0.52%, YM +0.30%, RTY +0.58%, the high of the first few minutes in all four. By about 08:36 they had given back roughly a third: ES +0.21%, NQ +0.32%, RTY +0.38% from 08:29.
• RTY fell 1.66% on Thursday on the rate move, more than four times the S&P. A print that eases yields helps it most.
• Gold (GC) — Slight bullish — the rates leg turned in its favour for the first time this week: lower yields and a softer dollar at once.
• First read: GC +0.56% from 08:29, up as much as 0.61%, and +0.39% by about 08:36. Gold came into the print after three straight losses and a 2.88% fall on Thursday.
• Crude (CL) — no directional read from this release — causation runs the other way. Crude petroleum fell 10.3% in the PPI, which is October's oil price showing up in the index, not a signal for November.

Inside The Number

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% in October, seasonally adjusted, after 1.4% in September (revised up from 1.3%) and 0.4% in August (revised down from 0.5%). Consensus was 0.4%. Over twelve months, unadjusted, final demand rose 6.5%, against a 6.6% consensus and 6.3% in September. BLS notes it is the largest twelve-month rise since 7.4% in November 2022.

The goods side cooled because energy stopped rising, not because anything else did. Final demand goods rose 0.5% after 2.5% in September (revised from 2.6%). Energy edged down 0.1% after rising 10.0%: gasoline rose only 0.5% after 20.6%, and diesel fell 7.9%. But BLS attributes over 60% of the goods rise to goods less foods and energy, up 0.5%, the fastest since May on this table, and foods jumped 1.3%, led by fresh and dry vegetables up 26.7% and processed young chickens up 10.8%. Within core goods, basic organic chemicals rose 3.9%, electronic components 4.2% (31.7% on the year), and government purchased goods excluding foods and energy 1.2%. Over twelve months, final demand goods are up 10.2%, the most since October 2022, and energy 37.0%.

Services slowed, but the mix matters more than the total. Final demand services rose 0.2%, the fifth straight increase, after a September now revised up to 1.0% from 0.8%. Three-quarters of October's rise came from transportation and warehousing, up 2.0%, and BLS traces over 80% of the services increase to truck freight alone, up 3.9%. That is freight rates rising in a month when diesel fell 7.9%, so this is not a fuel pass-through. Services less trade, transportation and warehousing, the largest block in the index at 43.7% of its weight, rose 0.2% for a second month, and is up 3.2% on the year.

This is the hidden story under the headline: trade margins flattered the core. Trade services measure what wholesalers and retailers keep between buying and selling, and they fell 0.2% after a September now revised up to 2.1% from 1.4%. Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell 4.2%, and trade of private capital equipment 4.0%, which reverses a large part of September's jump. Strip margins out, as BLS does in the core it leads with, and the reading is 0.5% for a second month. On December weights, trade took about 0.04 points off the headline and transportation added about 0.10. So the core reached consensus partly because one volatile component fell back.

Upstream, the raw end cooled hard while the near end kept rising. Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand fell 3.1%, the largest drop since June, on unprocessed energy materials down 7.7% and crude petroleum down 10.3%. But processed goods rose 0.4% for a third month, led by processed materials less foods and energy, up 0.9%, and are up 14.6% on the year, the most since July 2022. Services for intermediate demand rose 0.6% and 6.8% on the year, the most since November 2022, with metals, minerals and ores wholesaling margins up 9.2%.

The stage structure says the pipeline is thinning out at the start, not the finish. Stage 2, which carries refiners and utilities, fell 0.2% on goods inputs down 1.4%, its first decline since July. Note that September's stage 2 is now +3.2%, revised down from the 3.9% first published. Stages 1, 3 and 4 still rose: 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.4%. Over twelve months, stage 1 is up 13.9%, stage 2 13.3%, stage 3 8.4% and stage 4 8.0%, the last two the highest since autumn 2022. Last month this feed said the pressure was building at every stage. In October the crude-oil end reversed, but the inputs closest to final demand are still rising at about 0.4% a month.

For the Fed, it is the softer of the week's two inflation reports, and only just. Core CPI ran hot on Tuesday. PPI matched on core, missed by a tenth on the headline and on the annual rate, and was revised hotter for September. The PPI lines that feed the Fed's preferred PCE measure were mixed: airline passenger services and securities brokerage, dealing and investment advice fell, while hospital outpatient care rose. Nothing here argues against the hike the market priced this week; it just does not add to it.

The Internals

The four calendar numbers. Consensus is TradingEconomics:

Measure · October 2026 · Consensus · September 2026 · Result

PPI m/m, seasonally adjusted · Up 0.3% · Up 0.4% · Up 1.4%, revised from 1.3% · Soft by 0.1 points

PPI y/y, unadjusted · Up 6.5% · Up 6.6% · Up 6.3% · Soft by 0.1 points

Core PPI m/m (less foods and energy) · Up 0.3% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.8%, revised from 0.7% · In line

Core PPI y/y (less foods and energy) · Up 5.0% · Up 5.0% · Up 5.0% · In line

Contributions to the 0.3% headline. Weights are relative importance as of December 2025; contributions use the rounded monthly changes and are approximate:

Component · Weight · Monthly change · Contribution · Share of the month

Final demand goods · 29.028% · Up 0.5% · About 0.15 points · 44%

Of which: energy · 5.061% · Down 0.1% · About −0.01 points · −2%

Of which: foods · 5.452% · Up 1.3% · About 0.07 points · 22%

Of which: goods less foods and energy · 18.515% · Up 0.5% · About 0.09 points · 28%

Final demand services · 68.338% · Up 0.2% · About 0.14 points · 41%

Of which: trade services · 19.755% · Down 0.2% · About −0.04 points · −12%

Of which: transportation and warehousing · 4.857% · Up 2.0% · About 0.10 points · 29%

Of which: services less trade, transportation and warehousing · 43.725% · Up 0.2% · About 0.09 points · 26%

Final demand construction · 2.634% · Up 1.8% · About 0.05 points · 14%

The final demand detail:

Index · October · September · 12-month change

Final demand · Up 0.3% · Up 1.4% · Up 6.5%

Final demand goods · Up 0.5% · Up 2.5% · Up 10.2%

Foods · Up 1.3% · Up 1.1% · Up 1.7%

Energy · Down 0.1% · Up 10.0% · Up 37.0%

Goods less foods and energy · Up 0.5% · Up 0.3% · Up 5.2%

Private capital equipment · Up 0.4% · Up 0.3% · Up 4.0%

Government purchased goods excluding foods and energy · Up 1.2% · Up 0.4% · Up 6.8%

Goods for export excluding foods and energy · Up 0.8% · Up 0.3% · Up 7.5%

Final demand services · Up 0.2% · Up 1.0% · Up 5.0%

Trade services · Down 0.2% · Up 2.1% · Up 5.7%

Transportation and warehousing · Up 2.0% · Up 3.4% · Up 18.5%

Transportation of passengers · Down 1.2% · Up 4.8% · Up 14.9%

Transportation and warehousing of goods · Up 3.1% · Up 3.0% · Up 19.7%

Services less trade, transportation and warehousing · Up 0.2% · Up 0.2% · Up 3.2%

Final demand construction · Up 1.8% · Unchanged · Up 5.5%

Less foods and energy · Up 0.3% · Up 0.8% · Up 5.0%

Less foods, energy and trade services · Up 0.5% · Up 0.5% · Up 4.9%

Less energy · Up 0.4% · Up 0.8% · Up 4.9%

Less trade services · Up 0.5% · Up 1.2% · Up 6.7%

The monthly path, as revised in this release:

Month · Final demand · Less foods and energy · Less foods, energy and trade

June 2026 · Down 0.1% · Up 0.4% · Up 0.2%

July 2026 · Up 0.1% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.4%

August 2026 · Up 0.4% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3%

September 2026 · Up 1.4% · Up 0.8% · Up 0.5%

October 2026 · Up 0.3% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.5%

Product lines BLS names or that moved most:

Product · October · September · 12-month change

Gasoline · Up 0.5% · Up 20.6% · Up 75.9%

No. 2 diesel fuel · Down 7.9% · Up 19.9% · Up 115.2%

Natural gas liquids · Up 21.4% · Up 15.0% · Up 79.9%

Fresh and dry vegetables · Up 26.7% · Up 30.7% · Up 36.0%

Eggs for fresh use · Down 8.8% · Down 31.9% · Down 63.5%

Pork · Down 5.8% · Down 3.7% · Down 23.5%

Processed young chickens · Up 10.8% · Down 4.1% · Up 2.1%

Industrial chemicals · Up 3.1% · Up 1.2% · Up 17.1%

Electronic components and accessories · Up 4.2% · Down 0.4% · Up 31.7%

Passenger cars · Down 0.6% · Unchanged · Up 0.7%

Truck trailers · Up 2.3% · Up 0.4% · Up 9.3%

Intermediate demand by commodity type:

Index · October · September · 12-month change

Processed goods · Up 0.4% · Up 2.4% · Up 14.6%

Processed foods and feeds · Up 1.0% · Up 0.4% · n/a

Processed energy goods · Down 1.6% · Up 9.2% · n/a

Processed materials less foods and energy · Up 0.9% · Up 0.5% · n/a

Unprocessed goods · Down 3.1% · Up 6.3% · Up 16.9%

Unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs · Down 0.2% · Up 1.3% · n/a

Unprocessed energy materials · Down 7.7% · Up 15.6% · n/a

Unprocessed nonfood materials less energy · Down 0.9% · Up 2.0% · n/a

Services for intermediate demand · Up 0.6% · Up 1.0% · Up 6.8%

Trade services · Up 1.6% · Up 3.0% · n/a

Transportation and warehousing · Up 1.2% · Up 1.8% · n/a

Services less trade, transportation and warehousing · Up 0.2% · Up 0.3% · n/a

Intermediate demand by production flow:

Stage · October · September · Goods inputs, October · Services inputs, October · 12-month change

Stage 1 · Up 0.6% · Up 2.2% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.9% · Up 13.9%

Stage 2 · Down 0.2% · Up 3.2% · Down 1.4% · Up 0.7% · Up 13.3%

Stage 3 · Up 0.3% · Up 1.1% · Up 0.2% · Up 0.5% · Up 8.4%

Stage 4 · Up 0.4% · Up 1.1% · Up 0.3% · Up 0.6% · Up 8.0%

What Moved Inside The Index

PPI is a price survey of producers, not an opinion survey, so the layer beneath the headline is the product detail BLS calls out.

Freight, not fuel, drove services. Truck transportation of freight rose 3.9% and accounts for more than 80% of the final demand services increase. It also shows up at stages 1, 3 and 4 of intermediate demand and in intermediate services, alongside courier, messenger and US postal services.

Margins split by product. At final demand, fuels and lubricants retailing, health, beauty and optical goods retailing and food and alcohol wholesaling margins rose, while machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell 4.2%. For intermediate demand, trade margins rose 1.6%, and metals, minerals and ores wholesaling jumped 9.2%, accounting for 30% of the intermediate services rise.

Declines BLS named. System software publishing and airline passenger services fell at final demand. Nonresidential property management fees fell 5.9% for intermediate demand, along with securities brokerage, dealing and investment advice and services related to air transportation. Corn, slaughter hogs, wheat, aluminum base scrap and lumber also fell.

Rises upstream. Raw milk rose 8.2%, and natural gas, carbon steel scrap, steel mill products, jet fuel and fabricated structural metal products all increased.

Housekeeping in this release. BLS resampled nine industries effective with October data, including support activities for oil and gas operations and motor vehicle and parts merchant wholesalers. The 2027 model-year quality adjustment for domestic light trucks averaged $27.88, or 5.7% of the average manufacturer invoice increase; BLS did not publish a passenger-car figure for confidentiality reasons. June through September data were revised for late reports and corrections.

Against This Morning's Open

• The Open called PPI "the session's fulcrum" and said the y/y figure was the one to read against 6.6%. It printed 6.5%, just below.
• It said a soft print "is the first data point in a week that would let yields ease," and that below 6.6% "gold has the most room to recover." Both happened on the first read: the 10-year about 2bp lower and GC +0.56%.
• It named RTY as the contract most exposed to a hot PPI. On a slightly soft one, RTY led the first read at +0.58%.

What This Sets Up

• November PPI is out Tuesday 15 December at 08:30 ET, a week after the 8-9 December FOMC, so October's report is the last one the committee sees.
• The read to confirm or break: the less-trade core. A third straight 0.5% would mean October's in-line core was a margin story. A drop back toward 0.3% would make the soft headline real.
• Energy is the swing again. Crude petroleum fell 10.3% upstream in October. If that reaches gasoline and diesel at final demand in November, the headline can slow further even with core services firm.

What Is This?

• What it is: The Producer Price Index measures the average change in prices that US producers receive for goods, services and construction, from the seller's side, unlike the CPI, which measures what consumers pay. BLS publishes it monthly from more than 44,000 price quotes. The headline is final demand: goods (about 29% of the weight), services (about 68%) and construction (about 3%). Trade services measure the margins wholesalers and retailers earn, not the prices of the goods themselves.
• Why it matters: PPI is the earliest read on cost pressure moving through supply chains toward consumer prices, and several of its lines (airfares, portfolio management, medical care) feed directly into PCE, the Fed's preferred measure. With the annual rate at its highest since 2022 and markets pricing a December hike, it is one of the few data points that can move the front end before the meeting.
• How to read it: Headline and core m/m are seasonally adjusted; y/y is unadjusted. "Core" on most calendars is less foods and energy; BLS's own lead core also strips out trade margins, because they swing sharply when fuel or vehicle prices move. The intermediate stages (1 to 4) track prices further back in the chain: stage 1 is furthest from the consumer, stage 4 is the inputs bought by final-demand producers.

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_For informational purposes only. Not investment advice._